andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1505 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: I only read the review , not the book. What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. Rushdie’s new memoir . . . comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations.
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1 What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. [sent-2, score-0.362]
2 comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. [sent-6, score-0.9]
3 The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. [sent-7, score-0.904]
4 The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. [sent-8, score-0.291]
5 If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. [sent-9, score-0.665]
6 Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations. [sent-10, score-0.42]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1505 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-20-“Joseph Anton”
Introduction: I only read the review , not the book. What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. Rushdie’s new memoir . . . comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations.
2 0.08918418 872 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-26-Blog on applied probability modeling
Introduction: Joseph Wilson points me to this blog on applied probability modeling. He sent me the link a couple months ago. If he’s still adding new entries, then his blog is probably already longer-lasting than most!
3 0.061906349 439 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-Of psychology research and investment tips
Introduction: A few days after “ Dramatic study shows participants are affected by psychological phenomena from the future ,” (see here ) the British Psychological Society follows up with “ Can psychology help combat pseudoscience? .” Somehow I’m reminded of that bit of financial advice which says, if you want to save some money, your best investment is to pay off your credit card bills.
4 0.060903344 953 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-11-Steve Jobs’s cancer and science-based medicine
Introduction: Interesting discussion from David Gorski (which I found via this link from Joseph Delaney). I don’t have anything really to add to this discussion except to note the value of this sort of anecdote in a statistics discussion. It’s only n=1 and adds almost nothing to the literature on the effectiveness of various treatments, but a story like this can help focus one’s thoughts on the decision problems.
5 0.05992049 668 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-19-The free cup and the extra dollar: A speculation in philosophy
Introduction: The following is an essay into a topic I know next to nothing about. As part of our endless discussion of Dilbert and Charlie Sheen, commenter Fraac linked to a blog by philosopher Edouard Machery, who tells a fascinating story : How do we think about the intentional nature of actions? And how do people with an impaired mindreading capacity think about it? Consider the following probes: The Free-Cup Case Joe was feeling quite dehydrated, so he stopped by the local smoothie shop to buy the largest sized drink available. Before ordering, the cashier told him that if he bought a Mega-Sized Smoothie he would get it in a special commemorative cup. Joe replied, ‘I don’t care about a commemorative cup, I just want the biggest smoothie you have.’ Sure enough, Joe received the Mega-Sized Smoothie in a commemorative cup. Did Joe intentionally obtain the commemorative cup? The Extra-Dollar Case Joe was feeling quite dehydrated, so he stopped by the local smoothie shop to buy
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8 0.051582545 1150 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-02-The inevitable problems with statistical significance and 95% intervals
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13 0.042434599 129 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-Unrelated to all else
14 0.042048395 1496 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-14-Sides and Vavreck on the 2012 election
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16 0.040709656 73 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-Observational Epidemiology
17 0.038452484 611 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-14-As the saying goes, when they argue that you’re taking over, that’s when you know you’ve won
18 0.038181685 848 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-11-That xkcd cartoon on multiple comparisons that all of you were sending me a couple months ago
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20 0.03774995 348 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-17-Joanne Gowa scooped me by 22 years in my criticism of Axelrod’s Evolution of Cooperation
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same-blog 1 0.95547247 1505 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-20-“Joseph Anton”
Introduction: I only read the review , not the book. What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. Rushdie’s new memoir . . . comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations.
Introduction: Mark Palko points me to a news article by Zack Beauchamp on Jason Richwine, the recent Ph.D. graduate from Harvard’s policy school who left the conservative Heritage Foundation after it came out that his Ph.D. thesis was said to be all about the low IQ’s of Hispanic immigrants. Heritage and others apparently thought this association could discredit their anti-immigration-reform position. Richwine’s mentor Charles Murray was unhappy about the whole episode. Beauchamp’s article is worth reading in that it provides some interesting background, in particular by getting into the details of the Ph.D. review process. In a sense, Beauchamp is too harsh. Flawed Ph.D. theses get published all the time. I’d say that most Ph.D. theses I’ve seen are flawed: usually the plan is to get the papers into shape later, when submitting them to journals. If a student doesn’t go into academia, the thesis typically just sits there and is rarely followed up on. I don’t know the statistics o
3 0.71889669 1446 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-06-“And will pardon Paul Claudel, Pardons him for writing well”
Introduction: In our recent discussion of plagiarism and fake quotes, a commenter points to two recent posts by Mark Liberman ( here and here ) where Liberman links to about a zillion cases of journalists publishing quotes that were never said. He goes into some detail about two journalists from the New Yorker: Jared Diamond, who created quotes from a some dude in Papua New Guinea (ironically, one of Diamond’s accusers here is the widow of Stephen Jay Gould), and Janet Malcolm, who not only apparently falsified quotes by a subject of one of her articles, she also may have faked the notes for her interviews. I didn’t know that particular bit about Janet Malcolm, but I’ve felt very uncomfortable about her ever since she her apparent attempt to try to force a mistrial for a convicted killer. Between that case and her earlier The Journalist and the Murderer, Malcolm really does seem to have some sort of sympathy for people who kill their family members. She’s a good writer, but I still find
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Introduction: Today’s item mixes two of my favorite themes in a horrible way, sort of like a Reese’s Cup but combining brussels sprouts and liver instead of peanut butter and chocolate. In this case, the disturbing flavors that go together are plagiarism (you know what that is) and the publication filter (the idea that there should be very stringent standards for criticizing something, once it happens to be published somewhere). The copyist The first ingredient comes from Matthew Whitaker, an Arizona State University Foundation Professor of History who has a deplorable record of copying material from other writers without attribution . For convenience, I’ll reproduce an example here: On the plus side; Whitaker removed the cliche’d phrase, “undisputed rulers of the roost” when copying from the online encyclopedia; on the downside, I don’t know what he was thinking when he rendered “Conservatives” with a capital letter. And in case you were wondering what the policy on t
5 0.6886856 2234 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-05-Plagiarism, Arizona style
Introduction: Last month a history professor sent me a note regarding plagiarism at Arizona State University: Matthew Whitaker, who had received an expedited promotion to full professor and was made Director of a new Center for the Study of Race and Democracy by Provost Elizabeth Capaldi and President Michael Crow, was charged by most of the full professors in the History Faculty with having plagiarized throughout his corpus of work, copying from regular works of scholarship and from web sources. Indeed, in his response, which claimed that the petitioners were racist, Whitaker admitted to plagiarism in his work, defending himself in part by stating that he had not reviewed carefully the research and writing he had hired others to do. . . . What bothered my correspondent was that Whitaker remains an ASU Foundation Professor of History despite all the plaig. According to Whitaker’s webpage , he “is also a highly sought after speaker, having offered commentaries on NPR, PBS, . . . and other medi
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19 0.64884561 28 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-12-Alert: Incompetent colleague wastes time of hardworking Wolfram Research publicist
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1 0.92942977 1579 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-16-Hacks, maps, and moon rocks: Recent items in the sister blog
Introduction: 1. Oh no . . . Obama is doooooomed!!!!!!!!!!! (Don’t worry, it’s just Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talking) 2. Red-blue maps for different slices of the population 3. Picasso paintings, moon rocks, and hand-written Beatles lyrics
same-blog 2 0.91025925 1505 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-20-“Joseph Anton”
Introduction: I only read the review , not the book. What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. Rushdie’s new memoir . . . comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations.
3 0.76752508 149 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Demographics: what variable best predicts a financial crisis?
Introduction: A few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of demographics in political trends . Today I’d like to show you how demographics help predict financial crises. Here are a few examples of countries with major crises. The working-age population in Japan peaked in the 1995 census . The 1995 Financial Crisis in Japan The working-age USA population growth slows down to unprecedented levels in 2008 (see figure below) Financial crisis of 2007-2010 . (Also, notice previous dips in 2001, 1991 and 1981, and consider the list of recessions .) China’s working-age population, age 15 to 64, has grown continuously. The labor pool will peak in 2015 and then decline. There are more charts in Demography and Growth report by the Reserve Bank of Australia: Wikipedia surveys the causes of the financial crisis, such as “liquidity shortfall in the United States banking system caused by the overvaluation of assets”. Oh my! Slightly better than the usu
4 0.74346155 243 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-30-Computer models of the oil spill
Introduction: Chris Wilson points me to this visualizatio n of three physical models of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Cool (and scary) stuff. Wilson writes: One of the major advantages is that the models are 3D and show the plumes and tails beneath the surface. One of the major disadvantages is that they’re still just models.
5 0.70097649 1581 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-17-Horrible but harmless?
Introduction: Basbøll writes: In re your recent post : Can you make sense of this ? My reply: This is not the kind of thing that I like at all. But for some reason it doesn’t bother me enough for me to want to mock it. Perhaps because I sense that the people who write this sort of thing have very little power or influence. Then again, a check of Wikipedia reveals that the author of the above article is “currently Professor and Bill Daniels Ethics Fellow, a past endowed Bank of America professor of management at New Mexico State University.” The connection between “Ethics Fellow” and “Bank of America professor of management,” that’s a bit creepy.
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