andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-720 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: The other day I noticed a car with the improbable name of Nissan Rogue, from Darien, Connecticut (at least that’s what the license plate frame said). And, after all, what could be more “rogue”-like than a suburban SUV? I can’t blame the driver of the car for this one; I’m just amused that the marketers and Nissan thought this was an appropriate name for the car.
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1 The other day I noticed a car with the improbable name of Nissan Rogue, from Darien, Connecticut (at least that’s what the license plate frame said). [sent-1, score-1.597]
2 And, after all, what could be more “rogue”-like than a suburban SUV? [sent-2, score-0.23]
3 I can’t blame the driver of the car for this one; I’m just amused that the marketers and Nissan thought this was an appropriate name for the car. [sent-3, score-1.411]
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same-blog 1 1.0 720 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-20-Baby name wizards
Introduction: The other day I noticed a car with the improbable name of Nissan Rogue, from Darien, Connecticut (at least that’s what the license plate frame said). And, after all, what could be more “rogue”-like than a suburban SUV? I can’t blame the driver of the car for this one; I’m just amused that the marketers and Nissan thought this was an appropriate name for the car.
2 0.25059697 708 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-12-Improvement of 5 MPG: how many more auto deaths?
Introduction: This entry was posted by Phil Price. A colleague is looking at data on car (and SUV and light truck) collisions and casualties. He’s interested in causal relationships. For instance, suppose car manufacturers try to improve gas mileage without decreasing acceleration. The most likely way they will do that is to make cars lighter. But perhaps lighter cars are more dangerous; how many more people will die for each mpg increase in gas mileage? There are a few different data sources, all of them seriously deficient from the standpoint of answering this question. Deaths are very well reported, so if someone dies in an auto accident you can find out what kind of car they were in, what other kinds of cars (if any) were involved in the accident, whether the person was a driver or passenger, and so on. But it’s hard to normalize: OK, I know that N people who were passengers in a particular model of car died in car accidents last year, but I don’t know how many passenger-miles that
3 0.17216091 1417 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-15-Some decision analysis problems are pretty easy, no?
Introduction: Cassie Murdoch reports : A 47-year-old woman in Uxbridge, Massachusetts, got behind the wheel of her car after having a bit too much to drink, but instead of wreaking havoc on the road, she ended up lodged in a sand trap at a local golf course. Why? Because her GPS made her do it—obviously! She said the GPS told her to turn left, and she did, right into a cornfield. That didn’t faze her, and she just kept on going until she ended up on the golf course and got stuck in the sand. There were people on the course at the time, but thankfully nobody was injured. Police found a cup full of alcohol in her car and arrested her for driving drunk. Here’s the punchline: This is the fourth time she’s been arrested for a DUI. Assuming this story is accurate, I guess they don’t have one of those “three strikes” laws in Massachusetts? Personally, I’m a lot more afraid of a dangerous driver than of some drug dealer. I’d think a simple cost-benefit calculation would recommend taking away
4 0.1479236 527 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-20-Cars vs. trucks
Introduction: Anupam Agrawal writes: I am an Assistant Professor of Operations Management at the University of Illinois. . . . My main work is in supply chain area, and empirical in nature. . . . I am working with a firm that has two separate divisions – one making cars, and the other makes trucks. Four years back, the firm made an interesting organizational change. They created a separate group of ~25 engineers, in their car division (from within their quality and production engineers). This group was focused on improving supplier quality and reported to car plant head . The truck division did not (and still does not) have such an independent “supplier improvement group”. Other than this unit in car, the organizational arrangements in the two divisions mimic each other. There are many common suppliers to the car and truck division. Data on quality of components coming from suppliers has been collected (for the last four years). The organizational change happened in January 2007. My focus is
5 0.11112383 2123 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-04-Tesla fires!
Introduction: Paul Kedrosky writes: Curious if you’ve looked at the current debate about Tesla fires, statistically speaking. Lots of arm-waving about true/sample proportions, sample sizes, normal approximations, etc. Would love to see a blog post if it intrigues you at all. I hadn’t heard about this at all! I mean, sure, I’d heard of Tesla, this is an electric car being built by some eccentric billionaire . But I didn’t know they were catching on fire! At this point I was curious so I followed the link. It was an interesting discussion to read, partly because some of the commenters were so open about their financial interests; for example , i felt like now is a good time to share some of my insights, specifically regarding the tesla fires. i know many people won’t like to hear what i have to say. and i don’t have a longer term holding in tesla any more, although sometimes i day-trade tesla from the long or short side. tesla has been kind to me, both as an investor and model s
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same-blog 1 0.96423799 720 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-20-Baby name wizards
Introduction: The other day I noticed a car with the improbable name of Nissan Rogue, from Darien, Connecticut (at least that’s what the license plate frame said). And, after all, what could be more “rogue”-like than a suburban SUV? I can’t blame the driver of the car for this one; I’m just amused that the marketers and Nissan thought this was an appropriate name for the car.
2 0.64123797 1249 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-06-Thinking seriously about social science research
Introduction: I haven’t linked to the Baby Name Wizard in awhile. . . . Laura Wattenberg takes a look at the question , “Does a hard-to-pronounce baby name hurt you?” Critical thinking without “debunking”—this is the way to go.
3 0.56718063 2211 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-14-The popularity of certain baby names is falling off the clifffffffffffff
Introduction: Ubs writes: I was looking at baby name data last night and I stumbled upon something curious. I follow the baby names blog occasionally but not regularly, so I’m not sure if it’s been noticed before. Let me present it like this: Take the statement… Of the top 100 boys and top 100 girls names, only ___% contain the letter __. I’m using the SSA baby names page, so that’s U.S. births, and I’m looking at the decade of 2000-2009 (so kids currently aged 4 to 13). Which letters would you expect to have the lowest rate of occurrence? As expected, the lowest score is for Q, which appears zero times. (Jacqueline ranks #104 for girls.) It’s the second lowest that surprised me. (… You can pause and try to guess now. Spoilers to follow.) Of the other big-point Scrabble letters, Z appears in four names (Elizabeth, Zachary, Mackenzie, Zoe) and X in six, of which five are closely related (Alexis, Alexander, Alexandra, Alexa, Alex, Xavier). J is heavily overrepresented, especial
4 0.5380075 2212 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-15-Mary, Mary, why ya buggin
Introduction: In our Cliff thread from yesterday, sociologist Philip Cohen pointed to his discussions in the decline in the popularity of the name Mary. One thing that came up was the traditional trendiness of girls’ names. So I thought I’d share my thoughts from a couple of years ago, as reported by David Leonhardt: Andrew Gelman, a statistics professor at Columbia and an amateur name-ologist, argues that many parents want their boys to seem mature and so pick classic names. William, David, Joseph and James, all longtime stalwarts, remain in the Top 20. With girls, Gelman says, parents are attracted to names that convey youth even into adulthood and choose names that seem to be on the upswing. By the 1990s, of course, not many girls from the 1880s were still around, and that era’s names could seem fresh again. This search for youthfulness makes girls’ names more volatile — and increasingly so, as more statistics about names become available and parents grow more willing to experiment
5 0.53006166 2015 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-10-The ethics of lying, cheating, and stealing with data: A case study
Introduction: I’ve been following with mild interest the recent news stories on the lawbreaking at the Steven A. Cohen hedge fund, for the silly reason that I gave a paid lecture for them a few years ago. I wasn’t thinking too hard about whether they would be using my wonderful statistical ideas to be more effective at insider trading . . . Recently Paul Alper sent me an email pointing out that one of the lawbreakers involved is named Gilman—perhaps he’s related to me? Everyone is related to everyone else but I don’t know my relation to this particular guy. I actually have an aunt whose last name is Gilman. Here’s how it happened. A few years after my father was born (but before the birth of his sister), my grandfather changed his name from Gelman to Gilman. The story was that he was tired of people always calling him Gilman so he just changed his name. I’d call that a true commitment to the descriptive approach to linguistics. On the minus side, he gave my father’s older sister Luther
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same-blog 1 0.89649266 720 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-20-Baby name wizards
Introduction: The other day I noticed a car with the improbable name of Nissan Rogue, from Darien, Connecticut (at least that’s what the license plate frame said). And, after all, what could be more “rogue”-like than a suburban SUV? I can’t blame the driver of the car for this one; I’m just amused that the marketers and Nissan thought this was an appropriate name for the car.
2 0.68747354 225 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Getting into hot water over hot graphics
Introduction: I like what Antony Unwin has to say here (start on page 5).
3 0.6327526 127 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-04-Inequality and health
Introduction: Several people asked me for my thoughts on Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett’s book, “The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger.” I’ve outsourced my thinking on the topic to Lane Kenworthy .
Introduction: John Kastellec, Jeff Lax, and Justin Phillips write : Do senators respond to the preferences of their states’ median voters or only to the preferences of their co-partisans? We [Kastellec et al.] study responsiveness using roll call votes on ten recent Supreme Court nominations. We develop a method for estimating state-level public opinion broken down by partisanship. We find that senators respond more powerfully to their partisan base when casting such roll call votes. Indeed, when their state median voter and party median voter disagree, senators strongly favor the latter. [emphasis added] This has significant implications for the study of legislative responsiveness, the role of public opinion in shaping the personnel of the nations highest court, and the degree to which we should expect the Supreme Court to be counter-majoritarian. Our method can be applied elsewhere to estimate opinion by state and partisan group, or by many other typologies, so as to study other important qu
Introduction: The above graph shows the estimated support, by state, for the Employment Nondiscrimination Act, a gay rights bill that the Senate will be voting on this Monday. The estimates were constructed by Kate Krimmel, Jeff Lax, and Justin Phillips using multilevel regression and poststratification. Check out that graph again. The scale goes from 20% to 80%, but every state is in the yellow-to-red range. Support for a law making it illegal to discriminate against gays has majority support in every state. And in most states the support is very strong. And here’s the research paper by Krimmel, Lax, and Phillips, which begins: Public majorities have supported several gay rights policies for some time, yet Congress has responded slowly if at all. We address this puzzle through dyadic analysis of the opinion- vote relationship on 23 roll-call votes between 1993 and 2010, matching members of Congress to policy-specific opinion in their state or district. We also extend the MRP opinion e
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