andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1773 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Jake Hofman writes that he saw my recent newspaper article on running (“How fast do we slow down? . . . For each doubling of distance, the world record time is multiplied by about 2.15. . . . for sprints of 200 meters to 1,000 meters, a doubling of distance corresponds to an increase of a factor of 2.3 in world record running times; for longer distances from 1,000 meters to the marathon, a doubling of distance increases the time by a factor of 2.1. . . . similar patterns for men and women, and for swimming as well as running”) and writes: If you’re ever interested in getting or playing with Olympics data, I [Jake] wrote some code to scrape it all from sportsreference.com this past summer for a blog post . Enjoy!
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1 Jake Hofman writes that he saw my recent newspaper article on running (“How fast do we slow down? [sent-1, score-0.709]
2 For each doubling of distance, the world record time is multiplied by about 2. [sent-5, score-0.917]
3 for sprints of 200 meters to 1,000 meters, a doubling of distance corresponds to an increase of a factor of 2. [sent-10, score-1.668]
4 3 in world record running times; for longer distances from 1,000 meters to the marathon, a doubling of distance increases the time by a factor of 2. [sent-11, score-2.197]
5 similar patterns for men and women, and for swimming as well as running”) and writes: If you’re ever interested in getting or playing with Olympics data, I [Jake] wrote some code to scrape it all from sportsreference. [sent-16, score-0.907]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 1773 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-21-2.15
Introduction: Jake Hofman writes that he saw my recent newspaper article on running (“How fast do we slow down? . . . For each doubling of distance, the world record time is multiplied by about 2.15. . . . for sprints of 200 meters to 1,000 meters, a doubling of distance corresponds to an increase of a factor of 2.3 in world record running times; for longer distances from 1,000 meters to the marathon, a doubling of distance increases the time by a factor of 2.1. . . . similar patterns for men and women, and for swimming as well as running”) and writes: If you’re ever interested in getting or playing with Olympics data, I [Jake] wrote some code to scrape it all from sportsreference.com this past summer for a blog post . Enjoy!
2 0.14454603 1011 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-15-World record running times vs. distance
Introduction: Julyan Arbel plots world record running times vs. distance (on the log-log scale): The line has a slope of 1.1. I think it would be clearer to plot speed vs. distance—then you’d get a slope of -0.1, and the numbers would be more directly interpretable. Indeed, this paper by Sandra Savaglio and Vincenzo Carbone (referred to in the comments on Julyan’s blog) plots speed vs. time. Graphing by speed gives more resolution: The upper-left graph in the grid corresponds to the human running records plotted by Arbel. It’s funny that Arbel sees only one line whereas Savaglio and Carbone see two—but if you remove the 100m record at one end and the 100km at the other end, you can see two lines in Arbel’s graph as well. The bottom two graphs show swimming records. Knut would probably have something to say about all this.
3 0.14093234 1685 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-21-Class on computational social science this semester, Fridays, 1:00-3:40pm
Introduction: Sharad Goel, Jake Hofman, and Sergei Vassilvitskii are teaching this awesome class on computational social science this semester in the applied math department at Columbia. Here’s the course info . You should take this course. These guys are amazing.
4 0.1332211 1831 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-29-The Great Race
Introduction: This post is by Phil. Last summer my wife and I took a 3.5-month vacation that included a wide range of activities. When I got back, people would ask “what were the highlights or your trip?”, and I was somewhat at a loss: we had done so many things that were so different, many of which seemed really great…how could I pick? Someone said, wisely, that in six months or a year I’d be able to answer the question because some memories would be more vivid than others. They were right, and I was recently thinking back on our vacation and putting together a list of highlights — enjoyable in itself, but also worth doing to help plan future vacations. One of the things we did was go to four evenings of track and field events at the London Olympics. After we got back, people would ask what we had seen at the Olympics. I would say “We saw Usain Bolt run the 200m, we saw the women’s 4x100m relay and the men’s 4×400, we saw the last events of the decathlon…lots of great stuff. But my favorite was
5 0.12412085 245 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-31-Predicting marathon times
Introduction: Frank Hansen writes: I [Hansen] signed up for my first marathon race. Everyone asks me my predicted time. The predictors online seem geared to or are based off of elite runners. And anyway they seem a bit limited. So I decided to do some analysis of my own. I was going to put together a web page where people could get their race time predictions, maybe sell some ads for sports gps watches, but it might also be publishable. I have 2 requests which obviously I don’t want you to spend more than a few seconds on. 1. I was wondering if you knew of any sports performance researchers working on performance of not just elite athletes, but the full range of runners. 2. Can you suggest a way to do multilevel modeling of this. There are several natural subsets for the data but it’s not obvious what makes sense. I describe the data below. 3. Phil (the runner/co-blogger who posted about weight loss) might be interested. I collected race results for the Chicago marathon and 3
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same-blog 1 0.93161863 1773 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-21-2.15
Introduction: Jake Hofman writes that he saw my recent newspaper article on running (“How fast do we slow down? . . . For each doubling of distance, the world record time is multiplied by about 2.15. . . . for sprints of 200 meters to 1,000 meters, a doubling of distance corresponds to an increase of a factor of 2.3 in world record running times; for longer distances from 1,000 meters to the marathon, a doubling of distance increases the time by a factor of 2.1. . . . similar patterns for men and women, and for swimming as well as running”) and writes: If you’re ever interested in getting or playing with Olympics data, I [Jake] wrote some code to scrape it all from sportsreference.com this past summer for a blog post . Enjoy!
2 0.63502276 1558 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-02-Not so fast on levees and seawalls for NY harbor?
Introduction: I was talking with June Williamson and mentioned offhand that I’d seen something in the paper saying that if only we’d invested a few billion dollars in levees we would’ve saved zillions in economic damage from the flood. (A quick search also revealed this eerily prescient article from last month and, more recently, this online discussion.) June said, No, no, no: levees are not the way to go: Here and here are the articles on “soft infrastructure” for the New York-New Jersey Harbor I was mentioning, summarizing work that is more extensively published in two books, “Rising Currents” and “On the Water: Palisade Bay”: The hazards posed by climate change, sea level rise, and severe storm surges make this the time to transform our coastal cities through adaptive design. The conventional response to flooding, in recent history, has been hard engineering — fortifying the coastal infrastructure with seawalls and bulkheads to protect real estate at the expense of natural t
3 0.63207859 665 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-17-Yes, your wish shall be granted (in 25 years)
Introduction: This one was so beautiful I just had to repost it: From the New York Times, 9 Sept 1981: IF I COULD CHANGE PARK SLOPE If I could change Park Slope I would turn it into a palace with queens and kings and princesses to dance the night away at the ball. The trees would look like garden stalks. The lights would look like silver pearls and the dresses would look like soft silver silk. You should see the ball. It looks so luxurious to me. The Park Slope ball is great. Can you guess what street it’s on? “Yes. My street. That’s Carroll Street.” – Jennifer Chatmon, second grade, P.S. 321 This was a few years before my sister told me that she felt safer having a crack house down the block because the cops were surveilling it all the time.
4 0.62507725 1905 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-18-There are no fat sprinters
Introduction: This post is by Phil. A little over three years ago I wrote a post about exercise and weight loss in which I described losing a fair amount of weight due to (I believe) an exercise regime, with no effort to change my diet; this contradicted the prediction of studies that had recently been released. The comment thread on that post is quite interesting: a lot of people had had similar experiences — losing weight, or keeping it off, with an exercise program that includes very short periods of exercise at maximal intensity — while other people expressed some skepticism about my claims. Some commenters said that I risked injury; others said it was too early to judge anything because my weight loss might not last. The people who predicted injury were right: running the curve during a 200m sprint a month or two after that post, I strained my Achilles tendon. Nothing really serious, but it did keep me off the track for a couple of months, and rather than go back to sprinting I switched t
5 0.62172478 2367 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-10-Spring forward, fall back, drop dead?
Introduction: Antonio Rinaldi points me to a press release describing a recent paper by Amneet Sandhu, Milan Seth, and Hitinder Gurm, where I got the above graphs (sorry about the resolution, that’s the best I could do). Here’s the press release: Data from the largest study of its kind in the U.S. reveal a 25 percent jump in the number of heart attacks occurring the Monday after we “spring forward” compared to other Mondays during the year – a trend that remained even after accounting for seasonal variations in these events. But the study showed the opposite effect is also true. Researchers found a 21 percent drop in the number of heart attacks on the Tuesday after returning to standard time in the fall when we gain an hour back. Rinaldi thinks: “On Tuesday? No multiple comparisons here???” The press release continues: “What’s interesting is that the total number of heart attacks didn’t change the week after daylight saving time,” said Amneet Sandhu, M.D., cardiology fellow, Univer
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same-blog 1 0.88136506 1773 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-21-2.15
Introduction: Jake Hofman writes that he saw my recent newspaper article on running (“How fast do we slow down? . . . For each doubling of distance, the world record time is multiplied by about 2.15. . . . for sprints of 200 meters to 1,000 meters, a doubling of distance corresponds to an increase of a factor of 2.3 in world record running times; for longer distances from 1,000 meters to the marathon, a doubling of distance increases the time by a factor of 2.1. . . . similar patterns for men and women, and for swimming as well as running”) and writes: If you’re ever interested in getting or playing with Olympics data, I [Jake] wrote some code to scrape it all from sportsreference.com this past summer for a blog post . Enjoy!
Introduction: John Kastellec, Jeff Lax, and Justin Phillips write : Do senators respond to the preferences of their states’ median voters or only to the preferences of their co-partisans? We [Kastellec et al.] study responsiveness using roll call votes on ten recent Supreme Court nominations. We develop a method for estimating state-level public opinion broken down by partisanship. We find that senators respond more powerfully to their partisan base when casting such roll call votes. Indeed, when their state median voter and party median voter disagree, senators strongly favor the latter. [emphasis added] This has significant implications for the study of legislative responsiveness, the role of public opinion in shaping the personnel of the nations highest court, and the degree to which we should expect the Supreme Court to be counter-majoritarian. Our method can be applied elsewhere to estimate opinion by state and partisan group, or by many other typologies, so as to study other important qu
3 0.84180158 225 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Getting into hot water over hot graphics
Introduction: I like what Antony Unwin has to say here (start on page 5).
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Introduction: Several people asked me for my thoughts on Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett’s book, “The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger.” I’ve outsourced my thinking on the topic to Lane Kenworthy .
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Introduction: Juli thought this might answer some of my questions . To me, though, it seemed a bit of a softball interview, didn’t really go into the theory that the reason she’s stopped recording is that she didn’t really write most of the material herself.
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