andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-568 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Has anybody done this study yet? I’m curious about the results. Perhaps there’s some chess-playing cognitive psychologist who’d like to collaborate on this?
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same-blog 1 1.0 568 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-11-Calibration in chess
Introduction: Has anybody done this study yet? I’m curious about the results. Perhaps there’s some chess-playing cognitive psychologist who’d like to collaborate on this?
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Introduction: In case anybody is wondering what we really spend our time talking about . . .
3 0.16080065 1005 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-11-Robert H. Frank and P. J. O’Rourke present . . .
Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?
4 0.1332611 1184 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-25-Facebook Profiles as Predictors of Job Performance? Maybe…but not yet.
Introduction: Eric Loken explains : Some newspapers and radio stations recently picked up a story that Facebook profiles can be revealing, and can yield information more predictive of job performance than typical self-report personality questionnaires or even an IQ test. . . . A most consistent finding from the last 50 years of organizational psychology research is that cognitive ability is the strongest predictor of job performance, sometimes followed closely by measures of conscientiousness (and recently there has been interest in perseverance or grit). So has the Facebook study upended all this established research? Not at all, and the reason lies in the enormous gap between the claims about the study’s outcomes, and the details of what was actually done. The researchers had two college population samples. In Study 1 they had job performance ratings for the part-time college jobs of about 10% of the original sample. But in study 1 they did not have any IQ or cognitive ability measure.
5 0.12410168 460 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Statistics gifts?
Introduction: The American Statistical Association has an annual recommended gift list. (I think they had Red State, Blue State on the list a couple years ago.) They need some more suggestions in the next couple of days. Does anybody have any ideas?
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same-blog 1 0.96504033 568 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-11-Calibration in chess
Introduction: Has anybody done this study yet? I’m curious about the results. Perhaps there’s some chess-playing cognitive psychologist who’d like to collaborate on this?
2 0.66840541 1053 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-11-This one is so dumb it makes me want to barf
Introduction: Dan Kahan sends in this horror story: A new study finds that atheists are among society’s most distrusted group, comparable even to rapists in certain circumstances. Psychologists at the University of British Columbia and the University of Oregon say that their study demonstrates that anti-atheist prejudice stems from moral distrust, not dislike, of nonbelievers. “It’s pretty remarkable,” said Azim Shariff, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Oregon and a co-author of the study, which appears in the current issue of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. The study, conducted among 350 Americans adults and 420 Canadian college students, asked participants to decide if a fictional driver damaged a parked car and left the scene, then found a wallet and took the money, was the driver more likely to be a teacher, an atheist teacher, or a rapist teacher? The participants, who were from religious and nonreligious backgrounds, most often chose the athe
3 0.63332337 2196 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-03-One-way street fallacy again! in reporting of research on brothers and sisters
Introduction: There’s something satisfying about seeing the same error being made by commentators on the left and the right. In this case, we’re talking about the one-way street fallacy , which is the implicit assumption of unidirectionality in a setting that actually has underlying symmetry. 1. A month or so ago we reported on an op-ed by conservative New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, who was discussing recent research exemplified by the headline, “Study: Having daughters makes parents more likely to be Republican.” Douthat wrote all about different effects of having girls, without realizing that the study was comparing parents of girls to parents of boys. He just as well could have talked about the effects of having sons, and how that is associated with voting for Democrats (according to the study). But he did not do so; he was implicitly considering boy children to be the default. 2. A couple days ago, liberal NYT columnist Charles Blow ( link from commenter Steve Sailer) repo
4 0.6326561 35 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Another update on the spam email study
Introduction: I think youall are probably getting sick of this by now so I’ll put it all below the fold. Akinola Modupe and Katherine Milkman responded to my email about their study : We want to clarify the reason we believe that the use of deception and a lack of informed consent were appropriate and ethical for this research study. In this project, we were studying how the timing of a decision affects discrimination based on race and/or gender. The emails all participants in our study received were identical except for a) the sender’s name (we used 20 names that pretesting revealed were strongly associated with being either Caucasian, Black, Indian, Chinese or Hispanic, as well as associated with being male or female) and b) whether the meeting requested was for today or for a week from today. Recipients were randomly selected and were randomly assigned to one of the race/gender/timing conditions. This study design will allow us to test for baseline levels of discrimination in acade
5 0.61699092 1184 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-25-Facebook Profiles as Predictors of Job Performance? Maybe…but not yet.
Introduction: Eric Loken explains : Some newspapers and radio stations recently picked up a story that Facebook profiles can be revealing, and can yield information more predictive of job performance than typical self-report personality questionnaires or even an IQ test. . . . A most consistent finding from the last 50 years of organizational psychology research is that cognitive ability is the strongest predictor of job performance, sometimes followed closely by measures of conscientiousness (and recently there has been interest in perseverance or grit). So has the Facebook study upended all this established research? Not at all, and the reason lies in the enormous gap between the claims about the study’s outcomes, and the details of what was actually done. The researchers had two college population samples. In Study 1 they had job performance ratings for the part-time college jobs of about 10% of the original sample. But in study 1 they did not have any IQ or cognitive ability measure.
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20 0.51569629 18 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?
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same-blog 1 0.93384993 568 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-11-Calibration in chess
Introduction: Has anybody done this study yet? I’m curious about the results. Perhaps there’s some chess-playing cognitive psychologist who’d like to collaborate on this?
2 0.76766181 739 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-31-When Did Girls Start Wearing Pink?
Introduction: That cute picture is of toddler FDR in a dress, from 1884. Jeanne Maglaty writes : A Ladies’ Home Journal article [or maybe from a different source, according to a commenter] in June 1918 said, “The generally accepted rule is pink for the boys, and blue for the girls. The reason is that pink, being a more decided and stronger color, is more suitable for the boy, while blue, which is more delicate and dainty, is prettier for the girl.” Other sources said blue was flattering for blonds, pink for brunettes; or blue was for blue-eyed babies, pink for brown-eyed babies, according to Paoletti. In 1927, Time magazine printed a chart showing sex-appropriate colors for girls and boys according to leading U.S. stores. In Boston, Filene’s told parents to dress boys in pink. So did Best & Co. in New York City, Halle’s in Cleveland and Marshall Field in Chicago. Today’s color dictate wasn’t established until the 1940s . . . When the women’s liberation movement arrived in the mid-1960s, w
3 0.76136881 684 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-28-Hierarchical ordered logit or probit
Introduction: Jeff writes: How far off is bglmer and can it handle ordered logit or multinom logit? My reply: bglmer is very close. No ordered logit but I was just talking about it with Sophia today. My guess is that the easiest way to fit a hierarchical ordered logit or multinom logit will be to use stan. For right now I’d recommend using glmer/bglmer to fit the ordered logits in order (e.g., 1 vs. 2,3,4, then 2 vs. 3,4, then 3 vs. 4). Or maybe there’s already a hierarchical multinomial logit in mcmcpack or somewhere?
4 0.7607162 628 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-25-100-year floods
Introduction: According to the National Weather Service : What is a 100 year flood? A 100 year flood is an event that statistically has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. A 500 year flood has a .2% chance of occurring and a 1000 year flood has a .1% chance of occurring. The accompanying map shows a part of Tennessee that in May 2010 had 1000-year levels of flooding. At first, it seems hard to believe that a 1000-year flood would have just happened to occur last year. But then, this is just a 1000-year flood for that particular place. I don’t really have a sense of the statistics of these events. How many 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year flood events have been recorded by the Weather Service, and when have they occurred?
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Introduction: In case anybody is wondering what we really spend our time talking about . . .
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