andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2213 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: I had an email exchange with Patrick Steigler the other day that amused me, so I’ll share it with you. Steigler started with the subject line “Taleb and STDEV vs. MAD” and the message: I came across http://www.edge.org/response-detail/25401 and was wondering what your thoughts on the issue might be. My reply: How come they never ask me for my opinions in these surveys? Steigler: Maybe you need to write a book of aphorisms. me: There’s this: http://andrewgelman.com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ and then this, which some students collected from a course I taught: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/gelman_quotes.pdf Steigler: So, what would you opinion be on the scientific idea that is ready for retirement? me: I guess it’s a good thing they didn’t ask me! Steigler: How about the retirement of p value < .05 for significance? me: Yeah, but that’s too easy. It’s like if someone asks for a pop music recommendation and you say The Beatles. Steigler: Tru
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1 I had an email exchange with Patrick Steigler the other day that amused me, so I’ll share it with you. [sent-1, score-0.354]
2 Steigler started with the subject line “Taleb and STDEV vs. [sent-2, score-0.153]
3 org/response-detail/25401 and was wondering what your thoughts on the issue might be. [sent-5, score-0.148]
4 My reply: How come they never ask me for my opinions in these surveys? [sent-6, score-0.198]
5 com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ and then this, which some students collected from a course I taught: http://www. [sent-9, score-0.152]
6 pdf Steigler: So, what would you opinion be on the scientific idea that is ready for retirement? [sent-13, score-0.227]
7 me: I guess it’s a good thing they didn’t ask me! [sent-14, score-0.135]
8 Steigler: How about the retirement of p value < . [sent-15, score-0.225]
9 It’s like if someone asks for a pop music recommendation and you say The Beatles. [sent-18, score-0.309]
10 Steigler: True, but the idea could still use some drum beating about since it does not seem to be as fashionable as The Beatles yet (but hopefully some day! [sent-19, score-0.568]
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same-blog 1 1.0 2213 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-16-There’s no need for you to read this one
Introduction: I had an email exchange with Patrick Steigler the other day that amused me, so I’ll share it with you. Steigler started with the subject line “Taleb and STDEV vs. MAD” and the message: I came across http://www.edge.org/response-detail/25401 and was wondering what your thoughts on the issue might be. My reply: How come they never ask me for my opinions in these surveys? Steigler: Maybe you need to write a book of aphorisms. me: There’s this: http://andrewgelman.com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ and then this, which some students collected from a course I taught: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/gelman_quotes.pdf Steigler: So, what would you opinion be on the scientific idea that is ready for retirement? me: I guess it’s a good thing they didn’t ask me! Steigler: How about the retirement of p value < .05 for significance? me: Yeah, but that’s too easy. It’s like if someone asks for a pop music recommendation and you say The Beatles. Steigler: Tru
2 0.092615172 1380 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-15-Coaching, teaching, and writing
Introduction: I sent the following email to Thomas Basbøll: I read this: http://secondlanguage.blogspot.com/p/writing-coach.html and was reminded of this: http://andrewgelman.com/2011/10/could-i-use-a-statistics-coach/ He replied: Which reminds me of this http://secondlanguage.blogspot.com/2011/10/teacher-or-coach.html We seem to be approaching some sort of Platonic ideal in which we can conduct an entire conversation from links to our previous writings. Just like that joke about the roomful of comedians who refer to jokes by their numbers.
Introduction: Dikran Karagueuzian writes: I am in the process of choosing a textbook for a junior- or senior-level undergraduate two-semester sequence in probability and statistics. I would be obliged if you could recommend one which is free (or at least cheap), or inquire with your blog readers for such a recommendation. The course has been taught successfully in the past using Mathematical Statistics with Applications, by Wackerly, Mendenhall, and Scheaffer. Also at roughly the right level is Probability and Statistics by deGroot and Schervish. However, the current edition of the first text now lists for $217, and I find myself embarrassed to ask students at a public university to pay prices at this level. The main item on my wish list, other than the textbook being cheap and at the right level, is that it should be possible to teach the course by following the book closely for the entire year. (I have never taught the course before and have spent several years away from the universit
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Introduction: I recently had the occasion to reread my review of The Black Swan, from April 2007. It was fun reading my review (and also this pre-review ; “nothing useful escapes from a blackbody,” indeed). It was like a greatest hits of all my pet ideas that I’ve never published. Looking back, I realize that Taleb really was right about a lot of things. Now that the financial crisis has happened, we tend to forget that the experts who Taleb bashes were not always reasonable at all. Here’s what I wrote in my review, three and a half years ago: On page 19, Taleb refers to the usual investment strategy (which I suppose I actually use myself) as “picking pennies in front of a steamroller.” That’s a cute phrase; did he come up with it? I’m also reminded of the famous Martingale betting system. Several years ago in a university library I came across a charming book by Maxim (of gun fame) where he went through chapter after chapter demolishing the Martingale system. (For those who don’t kno
5 0.063669398 2314 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-01-Heller, Heller, and Gorfine on univariate and multivariate information measures
Introduction: Malka Gorfine writes: We noticed that the important topic of association measures and tests came up again in your blog, and we have few comments in this regard. It is useful to distinguish between the univariate and multivariate methods. A consistent multivariate method can recognise dependence between two vectors of random variables, while a univariate method can only loop over pairs of components and check for dependency between them. There are very few consistent multivariate methods. To the best of our knowledge there are three practical methods: 1) HSIC by Gretton et al. (http://www.gatsby.ucl.ac.uk/~gretton/papers/GreBouSmoSch05.pdf) 2) dcov by Szekely et al. (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1267453933) 3) A method we introduced in Heller et al (Biometrika, 2013, 503—510, http://biomet.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/12/04/biomet.ass070.full.pdf+html, and an R package, HHG, is available as well http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/HHG/index.html). A
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same-blog 1 0.9623493 2213 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-16-There’s no need for you to read this one
Introduction: I had an email exchange with Patrick Steigler the other day that amused me, so I’ll share it with you. Steigler started with the subject line “Taleb and STDEV vs. MAD” and the message: I came across http://www.edge.org/response-detail/25401 and was wondering what your thoughts on the issue might be. My reply: How come they never ask me for my opinions in these surveys? Steigler: Maybe you need to write a book of aphorisms. me: There’s this: http://andrewgelman.com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ and then this, which some students collected from a course I taught: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/gelman_quotes.pdf Steigler: So, what would you opinion be on the scientific idea that is ready for retirement? me: I guess it’s a good thing they didn’t ask me! Steigler: How about the retirement of p value < .05 for significance? me: Yeah, but that’s too easy. It’s like if someone asks for a pop music recommendation and you say The Beatles. Steigler: Tru
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Introduction: I sent the following email to Thomas Basbøll: I read this: http://secondlanguage.blogspot.com/p/writing-coach.html and was reminded of this: http://andrewgelman.com/2011/10/could-i-use-a-statistics-coach/ He replied: Which reminds me of this http://secondlanguage.blogspot.com/2011/10/teacher-or-coach.html We seem to be approaching some sort of Platonic ideal in which we can conduct an entire conversation from links to our previous writings. Just like that joke about the roomful of comedians who refer to jokes by their numbers.
3 0.7422564 1573 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-11-Incredibly strange spam
Introduction: Unsolicited (of course) in the email the other day: Just wanted to touch base with you to see if you needed any quotes on Parking lot lighting or Garage Lighting? (Induction, LED, Canopy etc…) We help retrofit 1000′s of garages around the country. Let me know your specs and ill send you a quote in 24 hours. ** Owner Emergency Lights Co. Ill indeed. . . .
Introduction: John Sides points to this discussion (with over 200 comments!) by political scientist Charli Carpenter of her response to a student from another university who emailed with questions that look like they come from a homework assignment. Here’s the student’s original email : Hi Mr. Carpenter, I am a fourth year college student and I have the honor of reading one of your books and I just had a few questions… I am very fascinated by your work and I am just trying to understand everything. Can you please address some of my questions? I would greatly appreciate it. It certainly help me understand your wonderful article better. Thank you very much! :) 1. What is the fundamental purpose of your article? 2. What is your fundamental thesis? 3. What evidence do you use to support your thesis? 4. What is the overall conclusion? 5. Do you feel that you have a fair balance of opposing viewpoints? Sincerely, After a series of emails in which Carpenter explained why she thought
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Introduction: Jenny writes : The Possessed made me [Jenny] think about an interesting workshop-style class I’d like to teach, which would be an undergraduate seminar for students who wanted to find out non-academic ways of writing seriously about literature. The syllabus would include some essays from this book, Geoff Dyer’s Out of Sheer Rage, Jonathan Coe’s Like a Fiery Elephant – and what else? I agree with the commenters that this would be a great class, but . . . I’m confused on the premise. Isn’t there just a huge, huge amount of excellent serious non-academic writing about literature? George Orwell, Mark Twain, Bernard Shaw, T. S. Eliot (if you like that sort of thing), Anthony Burgess , Mary McCarthy (I think you’d call her nonacademic even though she taught the occasional college course), G. K. Chesterton , etc etc etc? Teaching a course about academic ways of writing seriously about literature would seem much tougher to me.
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Introduction: I had an email exchange with Patrick Steigler the other day that amused me, so I’ll share it with you. Steigler started with the subject line “Taleb and STDEV vs. MAD” and the message: I came across http://www.edge.org/response-detail/25401 and was wondering what your thoughts on the issue might be. My reply: How come they never ask me for my opinions in these surveys? Steigler: Maybe you need to write a book of aphorisms. me: There’s this: http://andrewgelman.com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ and then this, which some students collected from a course I taught: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/gelman_quotes.pdf Steigler: So, what would you opinion be on the scientific idea that is ready for retirement? me: I guess it’s a good thing they didn’t ask me! Steigler: How about the retirement of p value < .05 for significance? me: Yeah, but that’s too easy. It’s like if someone asks for a pop music recommendation and you say The Beatles. Steigler: Tru
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Introduction: At Picnic Cafe, Broadway at 101 St, 6-7pm today. Should we vote even though it probably won’t make a difference? Why is the question “Are we better off now than four years ago?” not an appeal to selfishness? Are Americans as polarized as we think? Come explore these and other questions about voting in America today. It’s the usual stuff but close-up so lots of opportunity to argue and heckle. No slides or graphs. My plan is to hand out 30-50 index cards, each with a phrase (for example, “Moderation in the pursuit of moderation is no vice” or “Gerrymandering is good for you” or “How to predict elections”), then participants can call out topics and I’ll yap on them (with discussion) till we run out of time. It’ll be weird to talk without graphs. We’ll see how it goes.
4 0.85178912 1151 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-03-Philosophy of Bayesian statistics: my reactions to Senn
Introduction: Continuing with my discussion of the articles in the special issue of the journal Rationality, Markets and Morals on the philosophy of Bayesian statistics: Stephen Senn, “You May Believe You Are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong”: I agree with Senn’s comments on the impossibility of the de Finetti subjective Bayesian approach. As I wrote in 2008, if you could really construct a subjective prior you believe in, why not just look at the data and write down your subjective posterior. The immense practical difficulties with any serious system of inference render it absurd to think that it would be possible to just write down a probability distribution to represent uncertainty. I wish, however, that Senn would recognize my Bayesian approach (which is also that of John Carlin, Hal Stern, Don Rubin, and, I believe, others). De Finetti is no longer around, but we are! I have to admit that my own Bayesian views and practices have changed. In particular, I resonate wit
5 0.83968121 1296 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-03-Google Translate for code, and an R help-list bot
Introduction: What we did in our Stan meeting yesterday: Some discussion of revision of the Nuts paper, some conversations about parameterizations of categorical-data models, plans for the R interface, blah blah blah. But also, I had two exciting new ideas! Google Translate for code Wouldn’t it be great if Google Translate could work on computer languages? I suggested this and somebody said that it might be a problem because code isn’t always translatable. But that doesn’t worry so much. Google Translate for human languages isn’t perfect either but it’s a useful guide. If I want to write a message to someone in French or Spanish or Dutch, I wouldn’t just write it in English and run it through Translate. What I do is try my best to write it in the desired language, but I can try out some tricky words or phrases in the translator. Or, if I start by translating, I go back and forth to make sure it all makes sense. An R help-list bot We were talking about how to build a Stan commun
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