andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2323 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: This story (“Yale tells students to keep Kissinger talk secret . . . ‘Dr. Kissinger’s visit to campus will not be publicized, so we appreciate your confidentiality…’”) reminds me of two things: - In the 1980s, I once went to a public lecture at Harvard by Kissinger protogé Ted Koppel, who indeed has that deep Ted Koppel voice even when he’s just chatting (as I overheard). Koppel insisted that the contents of his talk not be reported. It was no great loss; he didn’t really have anything newsworthy to say. The talk was fine, he told us some interesting things, just nothing that would’ve made the news or even the campus newspaper. Still, it seemed kinda tacky for a reporter whose shtick was access to the powerful, to not want his own speech to be reported. - In the 1990s, a colleague of mine in a different dept told us that this professor from another university was coming by to give a lecture. I told my colleague that I’d like to meet with the guy, as I wanted to ask his opin
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1 This story (“Yale tells students to keep Kissinger talk secret . [sent-1, score-0.326]
2 Koppel insisted that the contents of his talk not be reported. [sent-6, score-0.326]
3 It was no great loss; he didn’t really have anything newsworthy to say. [sent-7, score-0.1]
4 The talk was fine, he told us some interesting things, just nothing that would’ve made the news or even the campus newspaper. [sent-8, score-0.527]
5 Still, it seemed kinda tacky for a reporter whose shtick was access to the powerful, to not want his own speech to be reported. [sent-9, score-0.526]
6 - In the 1990s, a colleague of mine in a different dept told us that this professor from another university was coming by to give a lecture. [sent-10, score-0.621]
7 I told my colleague that I’d like to meet with the guy, as I wanted to ask his opinion about a class demonstration I’d been doing related to some of his work. [sent-11, score-0.659]
8 My colleague was like, No, he’s only visiting a select group of faculty in that dept. [sent-12, score-0.568]
9 What a dick (my colleague, that is, not the visiting prof who I’m sure never heard about this bit of screening that was done on his behalf). [sent-13, score-0.521]
10 I love that they sent around an email telling people not to tell anybody about it. [sent-15, score-0.137]
11 If they really wanted to make sure that nobody would hear about it, they should’ve just published it in the Annals of Statistics! [sent-16, score-0.153]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 2323 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-07-Cause he thinks he’s so-phisticated
Introduction: This story (“Yale tells students to keep Kissinger talk secret . . . ‘Dr. Kissinger’s visit to campus will not be publicized, so we appreciate your confidentiality…’”) reminds me of two things: - In the 1980s, I once went to a public lecture at Harvard by Kissinger protogé Ted Koppel, who indeed has that deep Ted Koppel voice even when he’s just chatting (as I overheard). Koppel insisted that the contents of his talk not be reported. It was no great loss; he didn’t really have anything newsworthy to say. The talk was fine, he told us some interesting things, just nothing that would’ve made the news or even the campus newspaper. Still, it seemed kinda tacky for a reporter whose shtick was access to the powerful, to not want his own speech to be reported. - In the 1990s, a colleague of mine in a different dept told us that this professor from another university was coming by to give a lecture. I told my colleague that I’d like to meet with the guy, as I wanted to ask his opin
2 0.12019736 479 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-WWJD? U can find out!
Introduction: Two positions open in the statistics group at the NYU education school. If you get the job, you get to work with Jennifer HIll! One position is a postdoctoral fellowship, and the other is a visiting professorship. The latter position requires “the demonstrated ability to develop a nationally recognized research program,” which seems like a lot to ask for a visiting professor. Do they expect the visiting prof to develop a nationally recognized research program and then leave it there at NYU after the visit is over? In any case, Jennifer and her colleagues are doing excellent work, both applied and methodological, and this seems like a great opportunity.
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Introduction: Diederik Stapel gives a Ted talk . Sometimes, reality truly is a parody of reality.
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Introduction: A colleague writes: When I was in NYC I went to this party by group of Japanese bio-scientists. There, one guy told me about how the biggest pharmaceutical company in Japan did their statistics. They ran 100 different tests and reported the most significant one. (This was in 2006 and he said they stopped doing this few years back so they were doing this until pretty recently…) I’m not sure if this was 100 multiple comparison or 100 different kinds of test but I’m sure they wouldn’t want to disclose their data… Ouch!
5 0.092645913 94 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-SAT stories
Introduction: I received a bunch of interesting comments on my blog on adjusting SAT scores. Below I have a long comment from a colleague with experience in the field. But first, this hilarious (from a statistical perspective) story from Howard Wainer: Some years ago when we were visiting Harvard [as a parent of a potential student, not in Howard's role as educational researcher], an admissions director said two things of relevance (i) the SAT hasn’t got enough ‘top’ for Harvard — it doesn’t discriminate well enough at the high end. To prove this she said (ii) that Harvard had more than 1500 ‘perfect 1600s’ apply. Some were rejected. I mentioned that there were only about 750 1600s from HS seniors in the US — about 400 had 1600 in their junior year (and obviously didn’t retake) and about 350 from their senior year. So, I concluded, she must be mistaken. Then I found out that they allowed applicants to pick and choose their highest SAT-V score and their highest SAT-M score from separate adm
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11 0.077875033 18 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?
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16 0.067026868 927 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-26-R and Google Visualization
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18 0.066190109 970 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-24-Bell Labs
20 0.06465739 27 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-11-Update on the spam email study
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same-blog 1 0.96992475 2323 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-07-Cause he thinks he’s so-phisticated
Introduction: This story (“Yale tells students to keep Kissinger talk secret . . . ‘Dr. Kissinger’s visit to campus will not be publicized, so we appreciate your confidentiality…’”) reminds me of two things: - In the 1980s, I once went to a public lecture at Harvard by Kissinger protogé Ted Koppel, who indeed has that deep Ted Koppel voice even when he’s just chatting (as I overheard). Koppel insisted that the contents of his talk not be reported. It was no great loss; he didn’t really have anything newsworthy to say. The talk was fine, he told us some interesting things, just nothing that would’ve made the news or even the campus newspaper. Still, it seemed kinda tacky for a reporter whose shtick was access to the powerful, to not want his own speech to be reported. - In the 1990s, a colleague of mine in a different dept told us that this professor from another university was coming by to give a lecture. I told my colleague that I’d like to meet with the guy, as I wanted to ask his opin
2 0.77307874 407 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Data Visualization vs. Statistical Graphics
Introduction: I have this great talk on the above topic but nowhere to give it. Here’s the story. Several months ago, I was invited to speak at IEEE VisWeek. It sounded like a great opportunity. The organizer told me that there were typically about 700 people in the audience, and these are people in the visualization community whom I’d like to reach but normally wouldn’t have the opportunity to encounter. It sounded great, but I didn’t want to fly most of the way across the country by myself, so I offered to give the talk by videolink. I was surprised to get a No response: I’d think that a visualization conference, of all things, would welcome a video talk. In the meantime, though, I’d thought a lot about what I’d talk about and had started preparing something. Once I found out I wouldn’t be giving the talk, I channeled the efforts into an article which, with the collaboration of Antony Unwin, was completed about a month ago. It would take very little effort to adapt this graph-laden a
3 0.76487321 913 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-16-Groundhog day in August?
Introduction: A colleague writes: Due to my similar interest in plagiarism , I went to The Human Cultural and Social Landscape session. [The recipient of the American Statistical Association's Founders Award in 2002] gave the first talk in the session instead of Yasmin Said, which was modestly attended (20 or so people) and gave a sociology talk with no numbers — and no attribution to where these ideas (on Afghanistan culture) came from. Would it really have hurt to give the source of this? I’m on board with plain laziness for this one. I think he may have mentioned a number of his collaborators at the beginning, and all he talked about were cultural customs and backgrounds, no science to speak of. It’s kind of amazing to me that he actually showed up at JSM, but of course if he had any shame, he wouldn’t have repeatedly stolen copied without proper attribution in the first place. It’s not even like Doris Kearns Goodwin who reportedly produced a well-written book out of it!
4 0.76015359 1073 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-20-Not quite getting the point
Introduction: I gave this talk the other day and afterwards, a white guy came up to me and said he thought it was no coincidence that the researcher who made the mistake was “Oriental.” He then went on for about 5 minutes explaining his theory. I couldn’t keep myself from laughing—I had to start coughing into a napkin to hide it.
5 0.74688709 1484 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-05-Two exciting movie ideas: “Second Chance U” and “The New Dirty Dozen”
Introduction: I have a great idea for a movie. Actually two movies based on two variants of a similar idea. It all started when I saw this story: Dr. Anil Potti, the controversial cancer researcher whose work at Duke University led to lawsuits from patients, is now a medical oncologist at the Cancer Center of North Dakota in Grand Forks. When asked about Dr. Potti’s controversial appointment, his new boss said : If a guy can’t get a second chance here in North Dakota, where he trained, man, you can’t get a second chance anywhere. (Link from Retraction Watch , of course.) Potti’s boss is also quoted as saying, “Most, if not all, his patients have loved him.” On the other hand, the news article reports: “The North Carolina medical board’s website lists settlements against Potti of at least $75,000.” I guess there’s no reason you can’t love a guy and still want a juicy malpractice settlement. Second Chance U I don’t give two poops about Dr. Anil Potti. But seeing the above s
6 0.74325997 1600 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-01-$241,364.83 – $13,000 = $228,364.83
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13 0.69344079 1707 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-05-Glenn Hubbard and I were on opposite sides of a court case and I didn’t even know it!
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19 0.68466628 1039 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-02-I just flew in from the econ seminar, and boy are my arms tired
20 0.67889673 2313 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-30-Seth Roberts
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same-blog 1 0.927558 2323 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-07-Cause he thinks he’s so-phisticated
Introduction: This story (“Yale tells students to keep Kissinger talk secret . . . ‘Dr. Kissinger’s visit to campus will not be publicized, so we appreciate your confidentiality…’”) reminds me of two things: - In the 1980s, I once went to a public lecture at Harvard by Kissinger protogé Ted Koppel, who indeed has that deep Ted Koppel voice even when he’s just chatting (as I overheard). Koppel insisted that the contents of his talk not be reported. It was no great loss; he didn’t really have anything newsworthy to say. The talk was fine, he told us some interesting things, just nothing that would’ve made the news or even the campus newspaper. Still, it seemed kinda tacky for a reporter whose shtick was access to the powerful, to not want his own speech to be reported. - In the 1990s, a colleague of mine in a different dept told us that this professor from another university was coming by to give a lecture. I told my colleague that I’d like to meet with the guy, as I wanted to ask his opin
2 0.92619574 1775 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-23-In which I disagree with John Maynard Keynes
Introduction: In his review in 1938 of Historical Development of the Graphical Representation of Statistical Data , by H. Gray Funkhauser, for The Economic Journal , the great economist writes: Perhaps the most striking outcome of Mr. Funkhouser’s researches is the fact of the very slow progress which graphical methods made until quite recently. . . . In the first fifty volumes of the Statistical Journal, 1837-87, only fourteen graphs are printed altogether. It is surprising to be told that Laplace never drew a graph of the normal law of error . . . Edgeworth made no use of statistical charts as distinct from mathematical diagrams. Apart from Quetelet and Jevons, the most important influences were probably those of Galton and of Mulhall’s Dictionary, first published in 1884. Galton was indeed following his father and grandfather in this field, but his pioneer work was mainly restricted to meteorological maps, and he did not contribute to the development of the graphical representation of ec
Introduction: She was assigned to teach a class in “evidence-based medicine”! ( link from my usual news source). I wonder what was in the syllabus? If anyone has a copy, feel free to send to me and I will post it here. My favorite part of the story, though, is this: Almost all physician assistant students refused to comment to a reporter Tuesday, saying they’d been told by the department not to talk to media. Talk about obedience to authority! They’re studying in a program that offers nonexistent courses, but then they follow the department’s gag order.
Introduction: Paul Pudaite writes in response to my discussion with Bartels regarding effect sizes and measurement error models: You [Gelman] wrote: “I actually think there will be some (non-Gaussian) models for which, as y gets larger, E(x|y) can actually go back toward zero.” I [Pudaite] encountered this phenomenon some time in the ’90s. See this graph which shows the conditional expectation of X given Z, when Z = X + Y and the probability density functions of X and Y are, respectively, exp(-x^2) and 1/(y^2+1) (times appropriate constants). As the magnitude of Z increases, E[X|Z] shrinks to zero. I wasn’t sure it was worth the effort to try to publish a two paragraph paper. I suspect that this is true whenever the tail of one distribution is ‘sufficiently heavy’ with respect to the tail of the other. Hmm, I suppose there might be enough substance in a paper that attempted to characterize this outcome for, say, unimodal symmetric distributions. Maybe someone can do this? I think i
5 0.89933234 492 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-30-That puzzle-solving feeling
Introduction: Since this blog in November, I’ve given my talk on infovis vs. statistical graphics about five times: once in person (at the visualization meetup in NYC, a blog away from Num Pang!) and the rest via telephone conferencing or skype. The live presentation was best, but the remote talks have been improving, and I’m looking forward to doing more of these in the future to save time and reduce pollution. Here are the powerpoints of the talk. Now that I’ve got it working well (mostly by cutting lots of words on the slides), my next step will be to improve the interactive experience. At the very least, I need to allocate time after the talk for discussion. People usually don’t ask a lot of questions when I speak, so maybe the best strategy is to allow a half hour following the talk for people to speak with me individually. It could be set up so that I’m talking with one person but the others who are hanging out could hear the conversation too. Anyway, one of the times I gave th
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