andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1866 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: The end of Michelle Rhee . The relevance of statisticians to researchers in different fields of social science . Regression discontinuity . Free expression vs. not wanting to make anyone personally uncomfortable . Political coalitions are diverse (and there’s no use pretending otherwise) . According to David Brooks, staying out of jail is a conservative value . I’ve heard of the IRB, but this is ridiculous . This will make Richard Florida very happy . I don’t know whether to call it communism or crony capitalism . . . . Concepts and folk theories . This should keep youall busy for awhile.
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same-blog 1 1.0 1866 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-21-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: The end of Michelle Rhee . The relevance of statisticians to researchers in different fields of social science . Regression discontinuity . Free expression vs. not wanting to make anyone personally uncomfortable . Political coalitions are diverse (and there’s no use pretending otherwise) . According to David Brooks, staying out of jail is a conservative value . I’ve heard of the IRB, but this is ridiculous . This will make Richard Florida very happy . I don’t know whether to call it communism or crony capitalism . . . . Concepts and folk theories . This should keep youall busy for awhile.
2 0.14920431 2216 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-18-Florida backlash
Introduction: In a post entitled, “A holiday message from the creative class to Richard Florida — screw you,” Mark Palko argues that Florida’s famous theories about the rise of the creative class have not held up over time: Florida paints a bright picture of these people and their future, with rapidly increasing numbers, influence and wealth. He goes so far as to say “Places that succeed in attracting and retaining creative class people prosper; those that fail don’t.” . . . But, Palko argues, Except for a few special cases, this may be the worst time to make a living in the arts since the emergence of modern newspapers and general interest magazines and other mass media a hundred and twenty years ago . . . Though we now have tools that make creating and disseminating art easier than ever, no one has come up with a viable business model that supports creation in today’s economy. . . . OK, fine, so individual creatives aren’t doing so well? But what about the larger urban economies? P
3 0.1298808 1055 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-13-Data sharing update
Introduction: Fred Oswald reports that Sian Beilock sent him sufficient amounts of raw data from her research study so allow him to answer his questions about the large effects that were observed. This sort of collegiality is central to the collective scientific enterprise. The bad news is that IRB’s are still getting in the way. Beilock was very helpful but she had to work within the constraints of her IRB, which apparently advised her not to share data—even if de-identified—without getting lots more permissions. Oswald writes: It is a little concerning that the IRB bars the sharing of de-identified data, particularly in light of the specific guidelines of the journal Science, which appears to say that when you submit a study to the journal for publication, you are allowing for the sharing of de-identified data — unless you expressly say otherwise at the point that you submit the paper for consideration. Again, I don’t blame Beilock and Ramirez—they appear to have been as helpful as
4 0.1151319 482 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-23-Capitalism as a form of voluntarism
Introduction: Interesting discussion by Alex Tabarrok (following up on an article by Rebecca Solnit) on the continuum between voluntarism (or, more generally, non-cash transactions) and markets with monetary exchange. I just have a few comments of my own: 1. Solnit writes of “the iceberg economy,” which she characterizes as “based on gift economies, barter, mutual aid, and giving without hope of return . . . the relations between friends, between family members, the activities of volunteers or those who have chosen their vocation on principle rather than for profit.” I just wonder whether “barter” completely fits in here. Maybe it depends on context. Sometimes barter is an informal way of keeping track (you help me and I help you), but in settings of low liquidity I could imagine barter being simply an inefficient way of performing an economic transaction. 2. I am no expert on capitalism but my impression is that it’s not just about “competition and selfishness” but also is related to the
5 0.11263885 1539 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-18-IRB nightmares
Introduction: Andrew Perrin nails it : Twice a year, like clockwork, the ethics cops at the IRB [institutional review board, the group on campus that has to approve research involving human subjects] take a break from deciding whether or not radioactive isotopes can be administered to prison populations to cure restless-leg syndrome to dream up some fancy new way in which participating in an automated telephone poll might cause harm. Perrin adds: The list of exemptions to IRB review is too short and, more importantly, contains no guiding principle as to what makes exempt. . . . [and] Even exemptions require approval by the IRB. He also voices a thought I’ve had many times, which is that there are all sorts of things you or I or anyone else can do on the street (for example, go up to people and ask them personal questions, drop objects and see if people pick them up, stage fights with our friends to see the reactions of bystanders, etc etc etc) but for which we have to go through an IRB
7 0.10179454 310 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-The winner’s curse
8 0.08885771 1971 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-07-I doubt they cheated
9 0.08862038 2280 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-03-As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake
11 0.082335696 1587 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-21-Red state blue state, or, states and counties are not persons
12 0.081803173 35 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Another update on the spam email study
13 0.078173965 1727 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-19-Beef with data
14 0.074323088 217 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-19-The “either-or” fallacy of believing in discrete models: an example of folk statistics
15 0.074158706 1025 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-24-Always check your evidence
16 0.073576145 1271 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-Education could use some systematic evaluation
18 0.065817282 1930 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-09-Symposium Magazine
19 0.065010995 1204 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-08-The politics of economic and statistical models
20 0.062971294 2269 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-27-Beyond the Valley of the Trolls
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same-blog 1 0.96217036 1866 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-21-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: The end of Michelle Rhee . The relevance of statisticians to researchers in different fields of social science . Regression discontinuity . Free expression vs. not wanting to make anyone personally uncomfortable . Political coalitions are diverse (and there’s no use pretending otherwise) . According to David Brooks, staying out of jail is a conservative value . I’ve heard of the IRB, but this is ridiculous . This will make Richard Florida very happy . I don’t know whether to call it communism or crony capitalism . . . . Concepts and folk theories . This should keep youall busy for awhile.
2 0.69063473 604 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-08-More on the missing conservative psychology researchers
Introduction: Will Wilkinson adds to the discussion of Jonathan Haidt’s remarks regarding the overwhelming prevalance of liberal or left-wing attitudes among psychology professors. I pretty much agree with Wilkinson’s overview: Folks who constantly agree with one another grow insular, self-congratulatory, and not a little lazy. The very possibility of disagreement starts to seem weird or crazy. When you’re trying to do science about human beings, this attitude’s not so great. Wilkinson also reviewed the work of John Jost in this area. Jost is a psychology researcher with the expected liberal/left political leanings, but his relevance here is that he has actually done research on political attitudes and personality types. In Wilkinson’s words: Jost has done plenty of great work that helps explain not only why the best minds in science are liberal, but why most scientists-most academics, even-are liberal. Individuals with the personality trait that most strongly predicts an inclinati
Introduction: It all began with this message from Dan Kahan, a law professor who does psychology experiments: My graphs– what do you think?? I guess what do you think of the result too, but the answer is, “That’s obvious!” If it hadn’t been, then it would have been suspicious in my book. Of course, if we had found the opposite result, that would have been “obvious!” too. We are submitting to LR ≠1 Journa l This is the latest study in series looking at relationship between critical reasoning capacities and “cultural cognition” — the tendency of individuals to conform their perceptions of risk & other policy-relevant facts to their group commitments. The first installment was an observational study that found that cultural polarization ( political too ; the distinction relate not to the mechanism for polarization over decision-relevant science but only about how to measure what is hypothesized to be driving it) increases as people become more science literate. This paper and ano
4 0.66093385 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying
Introduction: Anthropologist Marshall Sahlins writes : When native Australians or New Guineans say that their totemic animals and plants are their kinsmen – that these species are persons like themselves, and that in offering them to others they are giving away part of their own substance – we have to take them seriously, which is to say empirically, if we want to understand the large consequences of these facts for how they organise their lives. The graveyard of ethnographic studies is strewn with the remains of reports which, thanks to anthropologists’ own presuppositions as to what constitutes empirical fact, were content to ignore or debunk the Amazonian peoples who said that the animals they hunted were their brothers-in-law, the Africans who described the way they systematically killed their kings when they became weak, or the Fijian chiefs who claimed they were gods. My first thought was . . . wait a minute! Whazzat with “presuppositions as to what constitutes empirical fact”? That a
5 0.65692526 1204 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-08-The politics of economic and statistical models
Introduction: Following up on our recent discussion of the problems of considering utility theory as a foundation for economic analysis (which in turn was a reprise of this post from last September), somebody named Mark pointed me to a 2007 article by Luigino Bruni and Robert Sugden, “The road not taken: How psychology was removed from economics, and how it might be brought back,” which begins: This article explores parallels between the debate prompted by Pareto’s reformulation of choice theory at the beginning of the twentieth century and current controversies about the status of behavioural economics. Before Pareto’s reformulation, neoclassical economics was based on theoretical and experimental psychology, as behavioural economics now is. Current discovered preference defences of rational-choice theory echo arguments made by Pareto. Both treat economics as a separate science of rational choice, independent of psychology. Both confront two fundamental problems: to find a defensible defi
6 0.65480572 1335 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-21-Responding to a bizarre anti-social-science screed
7 0.65181649 877 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-29-Applying quantum probability to political science
8 0.64489865 600 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-04-“Social Psychologists Detect Liberal Bias Within”
9 0.64319026 1633 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-21-Kahan on Pinker on politics
10 0.64051586 828 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-28-Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias
12 0.63261575 2330 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-Historical Arc of Universities
14 0.62824565 2337 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-18-Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism
15 0.62614232 1833 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-30-“Tragedy of the science-communication commons”
16 0.6179204 688 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-30-Why it’s so relaxing to think about social issues
18 0.61466712 1271 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-Education could use some systematic evaluation
19 0.61290848 1936 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-13-Economic policy does not occur in a political vacuum
20 0.6037547 1743 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-28-Different modes of discourse
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same-blog 1 0.95671642 1866 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-21-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: The end of Michelle Rhee . The relevance of statisticians to researchers in different fields of social science . Regression discontinuity . Free expression vs. not wanting to make anyone personally uncomfortable . Political coalitions are diverse (and there’s no use pretending otherwise) . According to David Brooks, staying out of jail is a conservative value . I’ve heard of the IRB, but this is ridiculous . This will make Richard Florida very happy . I don’t know whether to call it communism or crony capitalism . . . . Concepts and folk theories . This should keep youall busy for awhile.
2 0.94374341 290 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Data Thief
Introduction: John Transue sends along a link to this software for extracting data from graphs. I haven’t tried it out but it could be useful to somebody out there?
3 0.93846881 1098 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-04-Bayesian Page Rank?
Introduction: Loren Maxwell writes: I am trying to do some studies on the PageRank algorithm with applying a Bayesian technique. If you are not familiar with PageRank, it is the basis for how Google ranks their pages. It basically treats the internet as a large social network with each link conferring some value onto the page it links to. For example, if I had a webpage that had only one link to it, say from my friend’s webpage, then its PageRank would be dependent on my friend’s PageRank, presumably quite low. However, if the one link to my page was off the Google search page, then my PageRank would be quite high since there are undoubtedly millions of pages linking to Google and few pages that Google links to. The end result of the algorithm, however, is that all the PageRank values of the nodes in the network sum to one and the PageRank of a specific node is the probability that a “random surfer” will end up on that node. For example, in the attached spreadsheet, Column D shows e
Introduction: Psychology is a universal science of human nature, whereas political science is centered on the study of particular historical events and trends. Perhaps it is unsurprising, then, that when a psychologist looks at politics, he presents ideas that are thought-provoking but are too general to quite work. This is fine; political scientists can then take such ideas and try to adapt them more closely to particular circumstances. The psychologist I’m thinking about here is Steven Pinker, who, in writes the following on the question, “Why Are States So Red and Blue?”: But why do ideology and geography cluster so predictably? Why, if you know a person’s position on gay marriage, can you predict that he or she will want to increase the military budget and decrease the tax rate . . . there may also be coherent mindsets beneath the diverse opinions that hang together in right-wing and left-wing belief systems. Political philosophers have long known that the ideologies are rooted in diffe
5 0.91111338 1930 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-09-Symposium Magazine
Introduction: Symposium is a new online magazine subtitled “Where academia meets public life.” You can think of it as a sort of Slate magazine without Mickey Kaus, or as the Atlantic without the stylish writing. Here are the articles in the first issue, which has just been posted: Why Write the History of Capitalism? Louis Hyman A new generation of scholars is rewriting the story of capitalism by shaking off the old assumptions of both the Left and Right. Sorry, Wrong Number Andrew Gelman How do bad numbers get into circulation in our political discourse, and how do they stay there, even after being refuted? Historians and the Problem of Miracles Scott K. Taylor Historians, like most academics, are a secular lot. Is this a bias that prevents a deeper understanding of religious history? The Rebirth of Viewing Pleasure Jill Dolan By taking a fresh look at popular culture, students are breathing new life into feminist theories of a generation ago. Game Theory is Useful, E
6 0.90910244 136 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-09-Using ranks as numbers
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9 0.90025628 825 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-27-Grade inflation: why weren’t the instructors all giving all A’s already??
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16 0.8845855 2260 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-22-Postdoc at Rennes on multilevel missing data imputation
17 0.88224596 1266 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-16-Another day, another plagiarist
18 0.88160282 2281 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-04-The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems
20 0.88087201 569 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-12-Get the Data