andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2005 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: As I wrote a couple years ago: Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . . . it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections: 1. Two major candidates; 2. The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues; 3. The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources; 4. The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years); 5. A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds. Other elections look different. . . . Or, as I said in reference to the current NYC mayoral election: Et selon Andrew Gelman, expert de l’universi
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1 As I wrote a couple years ago: Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . [sent-1, score-0.354]
2 it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. [sent-4, score-0.304]
3 Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections: 1. [sent-5, score-0.322]
4 The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues; 3. [sent-7, score-0.28]
5 The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources; 4. [sent-8, score-0.069]
6 The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years); 5. [sent-9, score-0.445]
7 A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds. [sent-10, score-0.607]
8 Or, as I said in reference to the current NYC mayoral election: Et selon Andrew Gelman, expert de l’université de Columbia, rien n’est encore joué. [sent-15, score-0.881]
9 De Blasio “a une chance”, dit-il, mais ces élections municipales sont traditionnellement “très difficiles à prévoir”. [sent-16, score-0.384]
10 “Les choses peuvent encore changer” car “il y a beaucoup de candidats démocrates, et leurs idéologies ne sont pas très différentes. [sent-17, score-1.072]
11 Si De Blasio emporte la nomination démocrate, “les républicains deviendront très nerveux”, ajoute-t-il. [sent-19, score-0.452]
12 Mais il doute qu’un républicain l’emporte au final, même si New York a depuis 20 ans élu deux maires républicains, Rudolph Giuliani et Michael Bloomberg (devenu indépendant en 2007). [sent-20, score-0.653]
13 ” What I said was that if de Blasio gets the nomination, the Republicans will get very excited but I think they’ll still lose in the general election. [sent-26, score-0.431]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 2005 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-02-“Il y a beaucoup de candidats démocrates, et leurs idéologies ne sont pas très différentes. Et la participation est imprévisible.”
Introduction: As I wrote a couple years ago: Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . . . it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections: 1. Two major candidates; 2. The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues; 3. The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources; 4. The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years); 5. A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds. Other elections look different. . . . Or, as I said in reference to the current NYC mayoral election: Et selon Andrew Gelman, expert de l’universi
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Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
Introduction: Jonathan Chait writes that the most important aspect of a presidential candidate is “political talent”: Republicans have generally understood that an agenda tilted toward the desires of the powerful requires a skilled frontman who can pitch Middle America. Favorite character types include jocks, movie stars, folksy Texans and war heroes. . . . [But the frontrunners for the 2012 Republican nomination] make Michael Dukakis look like John F. Kennedy. They are qualified enough to serve as president, but wildly unqualified to run for president. . . . [Mitch] Daniels’s drawbacks begin — but by no means end — with his lack of height, hair and charisma. . . . [Jeb Bush] suffers from an inherent branding challenge [because of his last name]. . . . [Chris] Christie . . . doesn’t cut a trim figure and who specializes in verbally abusing his constituents. . . . [Haley] Barbour is the comic embodiment of his party’s most negative stereotypes. A Barbour nomination would be the rough equivalent
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Introduction: Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which, at any point in time, the level of support for any party or candidate is equally likely to go up or down. Each shift in the polls is then interpreted as the result of some combination of news and campaign strategies. A completely different story of campaigns is the mean reversion model in which the elections are determined by fundamental factors of the economy and partisanship; the role of the campaign is to give voters a chance to reach their predetermined positions. The popularity of the random walk model for polls may be partially explained via analogy to the widespread idea that stock prices reflect all available information, as popularized in Burton Malkiel’s book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Once the idea has sunk in that short-term changes in the stock market are inherently unpredictable, it is natural for journalists to think the same of polls. For example, political analyst Nate Silver wrote
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Introduction: As I wrote a couple years ago: Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . . . it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections: 1. Two major candidates; 2. The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues; 3. The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources; 4. The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years); 5. A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds. Other elections look different. . . . Or, as I said in reference to the current NYC mayoral election: Et selon Andrew Gelman, expert de l’universi
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Introduction: Jeff pointed me to this article by Nick Berry. It’s kind of fun but of course if you know your opponent will be following this strategy you can figure out how to outwit it. Also, Berry writes that ETAOIN SHRDLU CMFWYP VBGKQJ XZ is the “ordering of letter frequency in English language.” Indeed this is the conventional ordering but nobody thinks it’s right anymore. See here (with further discussion here ). I wonder what corpus he’s using. P.S. Klutz was my personal standby.
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