andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1426 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I just saw L’Age de Glace 4 and boy are my eyes tired. I’m just glad it wasn’t in 3-D or I probably would’ve thrown up. The special effects were amazing, way beyond George of the Jungle and that ilk. Which was good, as I could only understand about 10% of the dialogue. I’d heard about all this new animation technology but not actually seen it before.
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4 Which was good, as I could only understand about 10% of the dialogue. [sent-4, score-0.188]
5 I’d heard about all this new animation technology but not actually seen it before. [sent-5, score-1.143]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1426 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-23-Special effects
Introduction: I just saw L’Age de Glace 4 and boy are my eyes tired. I’m just glad it wasn’t in 3-D or I probably would’ve thrown up. The special effects were amazing, way beyond George of the Jungle and that ilk. Which was good, as I could only understand about 10% of the dialogue. I’d heard about all this new animation technology but not actually seen it before.
2 0.21256214 613 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-15-Gay-married state senator shot down gay marriage
Introduction: This is pretty amazing.
3 0.14770171 1088 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-28-Argument in favor of Ddulites
Introduction: Mark Palko defines a Ddulite as follows: A preference for higher tech solutions even in cases where lower tech alternatives have greater and more appropriate functionality; a person of ddulite tendencies. Though Ddulites are the opposite of Luddites with respect to attitudes toward technology, they occupy more or less the same point with respect to functionality. As a sometime Luddite myself (no cell phone, tv, microwave oven, etc.), I should in fairness point out the logic in favor of being a Ddulite. Old technology is typically pretty stable; new technology is improving. It can make sense to switch early (before the new technology actually performs better than the old) to get the benefits of being familiar with the new technology once it does take off.
4 0.11430313 2063 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-16-My talk 19h this evening
Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
5 0.088278055 1310 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-09-Varying treatment effects, again
Introduction: This time from Bernard Fraga and Eitan Hersh. Once you think about it, it’s hard to imagine any nonzero treatment effects that don’t vary. I’m glad to see this area of research becoming more prominent. ( Here ‘s a discussion of another political science example, also of voter turnout, from a few years ago, from Avi Feller and Chris Holmes.) Some of my fragmentary work on varying treatment effects is here (Treatment Effects in Before-After Data) and here (Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Its Variation, as an Example of a Before–After Study).
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same-blog 1 0.95327479 1426 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-23-Special effects
Introduction: I just saw L’Age de Glace 4 and boy are my eyes tired. I’m just glad it wasn’t in 3-D or I probably would’ve thrown up. The special effects were amazing, way beyond George of the Jungle and that ilk. Which was good, as I could only understand about 10% of the dialogue. I’d heard about all this new animation technology but not actually seen it before.
2 0.65042818 613 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-15-Gay-married state senator shot down gay marriage
Introduction: This is pretty amazing.
3 0.61912304 1534 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-15-The strange reappearance of Matthew Klam
Introduction: A few years ago I asked what happened to Matthew Klam, a talented writer who has a bizarrely professional-looking webpage but didn’t seem to be writing anymore. Good news! He published a new story in the New Yorker! Confusingly, he wrote it under the name “Justin Taylor,” but I’m not fooled (any more than I was fooled when that posthumous Updike story was published under the name “ Antonya Nelson “). I’m glad to see that Klam is back in action and look forward to seeing some stories under his own name as well.
4 0.60961157 1639 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-26-Impersonators
Introduction: This story of a Cindy Sherman impersonator reminded me of some graffiti I saw in a bathroom of the Whitney Museum many years ago. My friend Kenny and I had gone there for the Biennial which had an exhibit featuring Keith Haring and others of the neo-taggers (or whatever they were called). The bathroom walls were all painted over by Kenny Scharf [no relation to my friend] in his characteristically irritating doodle style. On top of the ugly stylized graffiti was a Sharpie’d scrawl: “Kenny Scharf is a pretentious asshole.” I suspected this last bit was added by someone else, but maybe it was Scharf himself? Ira Glass is a bigshot and can get Cindy Sherman on the phone, but I was just some guy, all I could do was write Scharf a letter, c/o the Whitney Museum. I described the situation and asked if he was the one who had written, “Kenny Scharf is a pretentious asshole.” He did not reply.
5 0.60834444 1457 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-13-Retro ethnic slurs
Introduction: From Watership Down: There is a rabbit saying, ‘In the warren, more stories than passages’; and a rabbit can no more refuse to tell a story than an Irishman can refuse to fight. Wow. OK, if someone made a joke about New Yorkers being argumentative or people from Iowa being boring (sorry, Tom!), I wouldn’t see it as being in poor taste. But somehow, to this non-U.K. reader, Adams’s remark about “Irishmen” seems a bit over the top. I’m not criticizing it as offensive, exactly; it just is a bit jarring, and it’s kind of hard for me to believe someone would just write that as a throwaway line anymore. Things have changed a lot since 1971, I guess, or maybe in England an Irish joke is no more offensive/awkward than a joke about corrupt Chicagoans, loopy Californians, or crazy Floridians would be here.
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1 0.91017282 1475 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-30-A Stan is Born
Introduction: Stan 1.0.0 and RStan 1.0.0 It’s official. The Stan Development Team is happy to announce the first stable versions of Stan and RStan. What is (R)Stan? Stan is an open-source package for obtaining Bayesian inference using the No-U-Turn sampler, a variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. It’s sort of like BUGS, but with a different language for expressing models and a different sampler for sampling from their posteriors. RStan is the R interface to Stan. Stan Home Page Stan’s home page is: http://mc-stan.org/ It links everything you need to get started running Stan from the command line, from R, or from C++, including full step-by-step install instructions, a detailed user’s guide and reference manual for the modeling language, and tested ports of most of the BUGS examples. Peruse the Manual If you’d like to learn more, the Stan User’s Guide and Reference Manual is the place to start.
same-blog 2 0.90640652 1426 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-23-Special effects
Introduction: I just saw L’Age de Glace 4 and boy are my eyes tired. I’m just glad it wasn’t in 3-D or I probably would’ve thrown up. The special effects were amazing, way beyond George of the Jungle and that ilk. Which was good, as I could only understand about 10% of the dialogue. I’d heard about all this new animation technology but not actually seen it before.
3 0.89573681 457 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Whassup with phantom-limb treatment?
Introduction: OK, here’s something that is completely baffling me. I read this article by John Colapinto on the neuroscientist V. S. Ramachandran, who’s famous for his innovative treatment for “phantom limb” pain: His first subject was a young man who a decade earlier had crashed his motorcycle and torn from his spinal column the nerves supplying the left arm. After keeping the useless arm in a sling for a year, the man had the arm amputated above the elbow. Ever since, he had felt unremitting cramping in the phantom limb, as though it were immobilized in an awkward position. . . . Ramachandram positioned a twenty-inch-by-twenty-inch drugstore mirror . . . and told him to place his intact right arm on one side of the mirror and his stump on the other. He told the man to arrange the mirror so that the reflection created the illusion that his intact arm was the continuation of the amputated one. The Ramachandran asked the man to move his right and left arms . . . “Oh, my God!” the man began
4 0.87316501 1197 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-04-“All Models are Right, Most are Useless”
Introduction: The above is the title of a talk that Thad Tarpey gave at the Joint Statistical Meetings in 2009. Here’s the abstract: Students of statistics are often introduced to George Box’s famous quote: “all models are wrong, some are useful.” In this talk I [Tarpey] argue that this quote, although useful, is wrong. A different and more positive perspective is to acknowledge that a model is simply a means of extracting information of interest from data. The truth is infinitely complex and a model is merely an approximation to the truth. If the approximation is poor or misleading, then the model is useless. In this talk I give examples of correct models that are not true models. I illustrate how the notion of a “wrong” model can lead to wrong conclusions. I’m curious what he had to say—maybe he could post the slides? P.S. And here they are !
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Introduction: Ben Highton and Matt Buttice point us to this response addressing some of the issues Jeff Lax raised in his most recent MRP post. P.S. Jeff replies in comments: It sounds like we’ve converged. They acknowledge MRP performance is significantly better on average than reported in their new paper in PA and yet performance variation in terms of correlation to “truth” remains higher than some might have thought. Cool. I hope this sort of blog exchange can be a model of scientific discussion. Instead of a paper just sitting there by itself, it can be openly explored. Ideally, the published paper would include a link to these discussions of Highton, Buttice, Lax, Phillips, and Ghitza, so that readers would automatically get all this information.
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