andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1797 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Anna Lena Phillips writes : I. Many people will not, of their own accord, look at a poem. II. Millions of people will, of their own accord, spend lots and lots of time looking at photographs of cats. III. Therefore, earlier this year, I concluded that the best strategy for increasing the number of viewers for poems would be to print them on top of photographs of cats. IV. I happen to like looking at both poems and cats. V. So this is, for me, a win-win situation. VI. Fortunately, my own cat is a patient model, and (if I am to be believed) quite photogenic. VII. The aforementioned cat is Tisko Tansi, small hero. VII. Thus I present to you (albeit in digital rather than physical form) an Endearments broadside, featuring a poem that originally appeared in BlazeVOX spring 2011. VIII. If you want to share a copy of this image, please ask first. If you want a real copy, you can ask about that too. She follows up with an image of a cat, on which is superimposed a short
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1 Millions of people will, of their own accord, spend lots and lots of time looking at photographs of cats. [sent-4, score-0.669]
2 Therefore, earlier this year, I concluded that the best strategy for increasing the number of viewers for poems would be to print them on top of photographs of cats. [sent-6, score-1.335]
3 Fortunately, my own cat is a patient model, and (if I am to be believed) quite photogenic. [sent-12, score-0.541]
4 Thus I present to you (albeit in digital rather than physical form) an Endearments broadside, featuring a poem that originally appeared in BlazeVOX spring 2011. [sent-16, score-0.847]
5 If you want to share a copy of this image, please ask first. [sent-18, score-0.508]
6 If you want a real copy, you can ask about that too. [sent-19, score-0.236]
7 She follows up with an image of a cat, on which is superimposed a short anagrammatic poem. [sent-20, score-0.576]
8 In deference to item VIII above, I will not reproduce the image; it is here . [sent-21, score-0.198]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 1797 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-10-“Proposition and experiment”
Introduction: Anna Lena Phillips writes : I. Many people will not, of their own accord, look at a poem. II. Millions of people will, of their own accord, spend lots and lots of time looking at photographs of cats. III. Therefore, earlier this year, I concluded that the best strategy for increasing the number of viewers for poems would be to print them on top of photographs of cats. IV. I happen to like looking at both poems and cats. V. So this is, for me, a win-win situation. VI. Fortunately, my own cat is a patient model, and (if I am to be believed) quite photogenic. VII. The aforementioned cat is Tisko Tansi, small hero. VII. Thus I present to you (albeit in digital rather than physical form) an Endearments broadside, featuring a poem that originally appeared in BlazeVOX spring 2011. VIII. If you want to share a copy of this image, please ask first. If you want a real copy, you can ask about that too. She follows up with an image of a cat, on which is superimposed a short
Introduction: Ben Hyde sends along this appealing image by Michael Paukner, which represents a nearly perfect distillation of “infographics”: Here are some of the comments on the linked page: Rather than redrawing the picture to make the lines more clear, I’d say: leave the graphic as is, and have a link to a set of statistical graphs that show where the different sorts of old trees are and what they look like. Let’s value the above image for its clean look and its clever Christmas-tree design, and once we have it, take advantage of viewers’ interest in the topic to show them more. P.S. See my comment below which I think further illuminates the appeal of this particular tree.
3 0.094812475 1203 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-08-John Dalton’s Stroop test
Introduction: Drew Linzer showed me this hilarious monochrome image:
4 0.086508527 1970 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-06-New words of 1917
Introduction: I happened to come across a little book, “Current Glossary: Words Coined Since the War.” Here are some of them: as’pi-rin, n. A white compound used as a drug in the cure of headaches and rheumatism. bob’go, n. A kind of antelope in Africa; its meat is good for food. cat’ta-lo, n. A cross between an American bison and a cow. dart, n. A short, pointed spear-like weapon of steel dropped by airmen in attacks on the enemy. free’lance, n. A rover in literature, a writer not in the employ of one firm. griz’zly bear. A new kind of dance. You get the idea. P.S. Some more literary nostalgia from the archives: Prolefeed 70 Years of Best Sellers More on book sales . . . and reflections on the disappearance of millions of copies of the once-ubiquitous “Alive!”
5 0.064963639 1756 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-10-He said he was sorry
Introduction: Yes, it can be done : Hereby I contact you to clarify the situation that occurred with the publication of the article entitled *** which was published in Volume 11, Issue 3 of *** and I made the mistake of declaring as an author. This chapter is a plagiarism of . . . I wish to express and acknowledge that I am solely responsible for this . . . I recognize the gravity of the offense committed, since there is no justification for so doing. Therefore, and as a sign of shame and regret I feel in this situation, I will publish this letter, in order to set an example for other researchers do not engage in a similar error. No more, and to please accept my apologies, Sincerely, *** P.S. Since we’re on Retraction Watch already, I’ll point you to this unrelated story featuring a hilarious photo of a fraudster, who in this case was a grad student in psychology who faked his data and “has agreed to submit to a three-year supervisory period for any work involving funding from the
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same-blog 1 0.95098567 1797 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-10-“Proposition and experiment”
Introduction: Anna Lena Phillips writes : I. Many people will not, of their own accord, look at a poem. II. Millions of people will, of their own accord, spend lots and lots of time looking at photographs of cats. III. Therefore, earlier this year, I concluded that the best strategy for increasing the number of viewers for poems would be to print them on top of photographs of cats. IV. I happen to like looking at both poems and cats. V. So this is, for me, a win-win situation. VI. Fortunately, my own cat is a patient model, and (if I am to be believed) quite photogenic. VII. The aforementioned cat is Tisko Tansi, small hero. VII. Thus I present to you (albeit in digital rather than physical form) an Endearments broadside, featuring a poem that originally appeared in BlazeVOX spring 2011. VIII. If you want to share a copy of this image, please ask first. If you want a real copy, you can ask about that too. She follows up with an image of a cat, on which is superimposed a short
2 0.7426455 2341 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-20-plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
Introduction: This post is by Phil, and I’m writing about the slow pace of change in 21st-century America. [Note added later: at the time that I wrote this, I was unaware that a year-and-a-half ago Andrew had written a similar post on the theme. I suspect I, and perhaps most of this blog's readers, missed it because he posted it on New Year's Day]. [Note added later still: evidently I'm wrong and I did see Andrew's post, because I left a comment on it: " If you want to pick a 50-year period, with nice round numbers for the start and the end, my vote for the biggest lifestyle change for Americans is 1900-1950. Radio, telephone, television, indoor plumbing, refrigerators, home air conditioning, automobiles, airplanes… in the past 50 years all of those things have gotten better than they used to be (although I’m not sure there have been any major advances in indoor plumbing), but the change is small compared with having vs not having." And I was wrong about indoor plumbing, which most people di
3 0.73229462 955 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-12-Why it doesn’t make sense to chew people out for not reading the help page
Introduction: Karl Broman writes : Barry Rowlingson gave an interesting talk at UseR 2011, “Why R-help must die!” He suggested the Q-and-A type sites Stack Overflow (on programming) and Cross Validated (on statistics), both part of Stack Exchange. I haven’t used R-help recently but I do occasionally send people there. Just to see what was going on there, I clicked on over , did a little searching, and found this delight from a renowned professor of R. There’s something about the “please” there that just makes it all that much more special. (In contrast, the advice here to “please do your homework” just seems rude. I have a larger (or maybe smaller) point to make, though, which is about the silliness of advice to “read the damn manual” etc. Several years ago I read a fascinating book called City by William Whyte. He and his students had gone around various public places in NYC and observed how people actually behaved—how they walked, sit, stood, and interacted. One of Whyte’s ce
4 0.71365571 2158 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-03-Booze: Been There. Done That.
Introduction: Our research assistants have unearthed the following guest column by H. L. Mencken which appeared in the New York Times of 5 Nov 1933, the date at which Prohibition ended in the United States. As a public service we are reprinting it here. I’m particularly impressed at how the Sage of Baltimore buttressed his article with references to the latest scientific literature of the time. I think you’ll all agree that Mencken’s column, in which he took a stand against the legality of alcohol consumption, has contemporary relevance , more than 80 years later. Because of the challenge of interpreting decades-old references, we have asked a leading scholar of Mencken’s writings to add notes where appropriate, to clarify any points of confusion. And now here’s Mencken’s column (with notes added in brackets), in its entirety: For a little while in my teenage years, my friends and I drank alcohol. It was fun. I have some fond memories of us all being silly together. I think those moments of
5 0.70777434 1342 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-24-The Used TV Price is Too Damn High
Introduction: Rohin Dhar points me to this post : At Priceonomics, we’ve learned that our users don’t want to buy used products. Rather, they want to buy inexpensive products, and used items happen to be inexpensive. Let someone else eat the initial depreciation, Priceonomics users will swoop in later and get a good deal. . . . But if you want to buy a used television, you are in for a world of hurt. As you peruse through the Craigslist listings for used TVs, you may notice something surprising – the prices are kind of high. Do a quick check on Amazon and your suspicions will be confirmed; lots of people try to sell their used television for more than that same TV would cost brand new. . . . To test our suspicions that something was amiss in the used television market, we compared used TV prices to the prices of buying them new instead. . . . It turns out, people have very inflated expectations for how much they call sell their used TV. Only 3 of the 26 televisions we analyzed were discounte
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1 0.96467525 2242 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-10-Stan Model of the Week: PK Calculation of IV and Oral Dosing
Introduction: [Update: Revised given comments from Wingfeet, Andrew and germo. Thanks! I'd mistakenly translated the dlnorm priors in the first version --- amazing what a difference the priors make. I also escaped the less-than and greater-than signs in the constraints in the model so they're visible. I also updated to match the thin=2 output of JAGS.] We’re going to be starting a Stan “model of the P” (for some time period P) column, so I thought I’d kick things off with one of my own. I’ve been following the Wingvoet blog , the author of which is identified only by the Blogger handle Wingfeet ; a couple of days ago this lovely post came out: PK calculation of IV and oral dosing in JAGS Wingfeet’s post implemented an answer to question 6 from chapter 6 of problem from Rowland and Tozer’s 2010 book, Clinical Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics , Fourth edition, Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins. So in the grand tradition of using this blog to procrastinate, I thought I’d t
same-blog 2 0.87678361 1797 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-10-“Proposition and experiment”
Introduction: Anna Lena Phillips writes : I. Many people will not, of their own accord, look at a poem. II. Millions of people will, of their own accord, spend lots and lots of time looking at photographs of cats. III. Therefore, earlier this year, I concluded that the best strategy for increasing the number of viewers for poems would be to print them on top of photographs of cats. IV. I happen to like looking at both poems and cats. V. So this is, for me, a win-win situation. VI. Fortunately, my own cat is a patient model, and (if I am to be believed) quite photogenic. VII. The aforementioned cat is Tisko Tansi, small hero. VII. Thus I present to you (albeit in digital rather than physical form) an Endearments broadside, featuring a poem that originally appeared in BlazeVOX spring 2011. VIII. If you want to share a copy of this image, please ask first. If you want a real copy, you can ask about that too. She follows up with an image of a cat, on which is superimposed a short
3 0.85626405 176 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Information is good
Introduction: Washington Post and Slate reporter Anne Applebaum wrote a dismissive column about Wikileaks, saying that they “offer nothing more than raw data.” Applebaum argues that “The notion that the Internet can replace traditional news-gathering has just been revealed to be a myth. . . . without more journalism, more investigation, more work, these documents just don’t matter that much.” Fine. But don’t undervalue the role of mere data! The usual story is that we don’t get to see the raw data underlying newspaper stories. Wikileaks and other crowdsourced data can be extremely useful, whether or not they replace “traditional news-gathering.”
4 0.8325206 1476 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-30-Stan is fast
Introduction: 10,000 iterations for 4 chains on the (precompiled) efficiently-parameterized 8-schools model: > date () [1] "Thu Aug 30 22:12:53 2012" > fit3 <- stan (fit=fit2, data = schools_dat, iter = 1e4, n_chains = 4) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Iteration: 10000 / 10000 [100%] (Sampling) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Iteration: 10000 / 10000 [100%] (Sampling) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 3). Iteration: 10000 / 10000 [100%] (Sampling) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 4). Iteration: 10000 / 10000 [100%] (Sampling) > date () [1] "Thu Aug 30 22:12:55 2012" > print (fit3) Inference for Stan model: anon_model. 4 chains: each with iter=10000; warmup=5000; thin=1; 10000 iterations saved. mean se_mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% n_eff Rhat mu 8.0 0.1 5.1 -2.0 4.7 8.0 11.3 18.4 4032 1 tau 6.7 0.1 5.6 0.3 2.5 5.4 9.3 21.2 2958 1 eta[1] 0.4 0.0 0.9 -1.5 -0
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Introduction: Solomon Hsiang writes: Two small follow-ups based on the discussion (the second/bigger one is to address your comment about the 95% CI edges). 1. I realized that if we plot the confidence intervals as a solid color that fades (eg. using the “fixed ink” scheme from before) we can make sure the regression line also has heightened visual weight where confidence is high by plotting the line white. This makes the contrast (and thus visual weight) between the regression line and the CI highest when the CI is narrow and dark. As the CI fade near the edges, so does the contrast with the regression line. This is a small adjustment, but I like it because it is so simple and it makes the graph much nicer. (see “visually_weighted_fill_reverse” attached). My posted code has been updated to do this automatically. 2. You and your readers didn’t like that the edges of the filled CI were so sharp and arbitrary. But I didn’t like that the contrast between the spaghetti lines and the background
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