andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1432 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Jay Livingston critiques the recent pronouncements of sociologist and cigarette shill Peter Berger, who recently has moved into cultural criticism of New York’s mayor for living with “a woman to whom he is not married” (this is apparently a European sort of thing, I guess they don’t have unmarried partners in the parts of the U.S. where Berger hangs out). But what impresses me is that Berger is doing regular blogging at the age of 84 , writing a long essay each week. That’s really amazing to me. Some of the blogging is a bit suspect, for example the bit where he claims that he personally could convert gays to heterosexual orientation (“A few stubborn individuals may resist the Berger conversion program. The majority will succumb”)—but, really, you gotta admire that he’s doing this. I hope I’m that active when (if) I reach my mid-80s. (As a nonsmoker, I should have a pretty good chance of reaching that point.) P.S. More rant at the sister blog. P.P.S. In comments,
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1 But what impresses me is that Berger is doing regular blogging at the age of 84 , writing a long essay each week. [sent-4, score-0.555]
2 Some of the blogging is a bit suspect, for example the bit where he claims that he personally could convert gays to heterosexual orientation (“A few stubborn individuals may resist the Berger conversion program. [sent-6, score-1.432]
3 The majority will succumb”)—but, really, you gotta admire that he’s doing this. [sent-7, score-0.182]
4 I hope I’m that active when (if) I reach my mid-80s. [sent-8, score-0.171]
5 (As a nonsmoker, I should have a pretty good chance of reaching that point. [sent-9, score-0.112]
6 In comments, Mark Palko reports that author/editor Frederik Pohl is blogging at age 92! [sent-16, score-0.373]
7 Pohl’s blog appears to be less get-off-my-lawn and more reminiscences (for example, this memoir of Ray Bradbury). [sent-17, score-0.282]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 1432 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-27-“Get off my lawn”-blogging
Introduction: Jay Livingston critiques the recent pronouncements of sociologist and cigarette shill Peter Berger, who recently has moved into cultural criticism of New York’s mayor for living with “a woman to whom he is not married” (this is apparently a European sort of thing, I guess they don’t have unmarried partners in the parts of the U.S. where Berger hangs out). But what impresses me is that Berger is doing regular blogging at the age of 84 , writing a long essay each week. That’s really amazing to me. Some of the blogging is a bit suspect, for example the bit where he claims that he personally could convert gays to heterosexual orientation (“A few stubborn individuals may resist the Berger conversion program. The majority will succumb”)—but, really, you gotta admire that he’s doing this. I hope I’m that active when (if) I reach my mid-80s. (As a nonsmoker, I should have a pretty good chance of reaching that point.) P.S. More rant at the sister blog. P.P.S. In comments,
Introduction: Deborah Mayo sent me this quote from Jim Berger: Too often I see people pretending to be subjectivists, and then using “weakly informative” priors that the objective Bayesian community knows are terrible and will give ridiculous answers; subjectivism is then being used as a shield to hide ignorance. . . . In my own more provocative moments, I claim that the only true subjectivists are the objective Bayesians, because they refuse to use subjectivism as a shield against criticism of sloppy pseudo-Bayesian practice. This caught my attention because I’ve become more and more convinced that weakly informative priors are the right way to go in many different situations. I don’t think Berger was talking about me , though, as the above quote came from a publication in 2006, at which time I’d only started writing about weakly informative priors. Going back to Berger’s article , I see that his “weakly informative priors” remark was aimed at this article by Anthony O’Hagan, who w
3 0.13441506 1092 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-29-More by Berger and me on weakly informative priors
Introduction: A couple days ago we discussed some remarks by Tony O’Hagan and Jim Berger on weakly informative priors. Jim followed up on Deborah Mayo’s blog with this: Objective Bayesian priors are often improper (i.e., have infinite total mass), but this is not a problem when they are developed correctly. But not every improper prior is satisfactory. For instance, the constant prior is known to be unsatisfactory in many situations. The ‘solution’ pseudo-Bayesians often use is to choose a constant prior over a large but bounded set (a ‘weakly informative’ prior), saying it is now proper and so all is well. This is not true; if the constant prior on the whole parameter space is bad, so will be the constant prior over the bounded set. The problem is, in part, that some people confuse proper priors with subjective priors and, having learned that true subjective priors are fine, incorrectly presume that weakly informative proper priors are fine. I have a few reactions to this: 1. I agree
4 0.099303484 120 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-You can’t put Pandora back in the box
Introduction: Rajiv Sethi writes : I suspect that within a decade, blogs will be a cornerstone of research in economics. Many original and creative contributions to the discipline will first be communicated to the profession (and the world at large) in the form of blog posts, since the medium allows for material of arbitrary length, depth and complexity. Ideas first expressed in this form will make their way (with suitable attribution) into reading lists, doctoral dissertations and more conventionally refereed academic publications. And blogs will come to play a central role in the process of recruitment, promotion and reward at major research universities. This genie is not going back into its bottle. And he thinks this is a good thing: In fact, the refereeing process for blog posts is in some respects more rigorous than that for journal articles. Reports are numerous, non-anonymous, public, rapidly and efficiently produced, and collaboratively constructed. It is not obvious to me [Sethi]
5 0.091371536 613 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-15-Gay-married state senator shot down gay marriage
Introduction: This is pretty amazing.
6 0.09112636 1480 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-02-“If our product is harmful . . . we’ll stop making it.”
7 0.090790562 905 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-14-5 books on essentialism!
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same-blog 1 0.9616282 1432 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-27-“Get off my lawn”-blogging
Introduction: Jay Livingston critiques the recent pronouncements of sociologist and cigarette shill Peter Berger, who recently has moved into cultural criticism of New York’s mayor for living with “a woman to whom he is not married” (this is apparently a European sort of thing, I guess they don’t have unmarried partners in the parts of the U.S. where Berger hangs out). But what impresses me is that Berger is doing regular blogging at the age of 84 , writing a long essay each week. That’s really amazing to me. Some of the blogging is a bit suspect, for example the bit where he claims that he personally could convert gays to heterosexual orientation (“A few stubborn individuals may resist the Berger conversion program. The majority will succumb”)—but, really, you gotta admire that he’s doing this. I hope I’m that active when (if) I reach my mid-80s. (As a nonsmoker, I should have a pretty good chance of reaching that point.) P.S. More rant at the sister blog. P.P.S. In comments,
2 0.7598089 856 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-16-Our new improved blog! Thanks to Cord Blomquist
Introduction: Hi all. You may have noticed changes in the appearance of the blog. Cord Blomquist moved us over to this new WordPress blog. He earlier did it for our sister blog and he can do it for you too, for a reasonable fee. We had a few hitches in getting all the files and links and comments working, and Cord was with us all the way to straighten things out. Thanks, Cord! You did a great job and we’re happy to recommend you to others. P.S. The last thing we got working was the RSS feed. So if you’ve been reading the blog on RSS, you have about 3 weeks of backlog you can catch up on. P.P.S. We’re still playing a bit with the blog’s formatting. Feel free to put any formatting suggestions in the comments.
3 0.71365237 2088 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-04-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: This one’s probably the most important: Republicans on track to retain control of House in 2014 And I like this one for the headline: Impact factor 911 is a joke Here are the others: Press releases make for fishy statistics Why is the Motley Fool hyping Netflix? Our health-care system is like Coca Cola Obama takes big bucks from telecoms, ramps up national security state I have mixed feelings about the move of the Monkey Cage blog to the Washington Post. I’ve been told we get many more readers, but the the comments have declined in number and in quality. It used to be that posting at the Monkey Cage felt like “blogging”: I’d post something there and look at the comments. It was a political science community with many participants from outside the field. Posting at the new blog is more like writing for the newspaper: it’s a broadcast without real feedback. This all makes me realize how much I appreciate the commenters here. Just as I blog for free, out
4 0.71325421 91 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-RSS mess
Introduction: Apparently some of our new blog entries are appearing as old entries on the RSS feed, meaning that those of you who read the blog using RSS may be missing a lot of good stuff. We’re working on this. But, in the meantime, I recommend you click on the blog itself to see what’s been posted in the last few weeks. Enjoy.
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Introduction: I’d’ve given this blog the name, tl;dr. Too late to change it now, though, I think!
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20 0.61168444 1177 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-20-Joshua Clover update
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same-blog 1 0.91534919 1432 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-27-“Get off my lawn”-blogging
Introduction: Jay Livingston critiques the recent pronouncements of sociologist and cigarette shill Peter Berger, who recently has moved into cultural criticism of New York’s mayor for living with “a woman to whom he is not married” (this is apparently a European sort of thing, I guess they don’t have unmarried partners in the parts of the U.S. where Berger hangs out). But what impresses me is that Berger is doing regular blogging at the age of 84 , writing a long essay each week. That’s really amazing to me. Some of the blogging is a bit suspect, for example the bit where he claims that he personally could convert gays to heterosexual orientation (“A few stubborn individuals may resist the Berger conversion program. The majority will succumb”)—but, really, you gotta admire that he’s doing this. I hope I’m that active when (if) I reach my mid-80s. (As a nonsmoker, I should have a pretty good chance of reaching that point.) P.S. More rant at the sister blog. P.P.S. In comments,
Introduction: I put it on the sister blog so you loyal readers here wouldn’t be distracted by it.
3 0.87027997 1116 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-13-Infographic on the economy
Introduction: Gabriel Bergin writes: Just thought I’d share an infographic you might enjoy. I [Bergin] quite like what they did with the colored ranges of previous curves in the two middle graphs: I like it. Would it be possible to put the two long time series on the same scale? As it is, one starts in 1948 and the other starts in 1980. The only thing about the display that I really don’t like are those balls on the top indicating the duration of recessions. It looks weird to me to display a time duration in the form of the area of a ball.
4 0.86225557 1503 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-19-“Poor Smokers in New York State Spend 25% of Income on Cigarettes, Study Finds”
Introduction: Jeff points me to this news article and asks, Can this be right? Hmmm . . . the article defines “wealthier smokers” as “those earning 60,000 or more.” So suppose a “low-income smoker” makes $20K, then 25% is $5000, which is $100 a week, or $14/day, which according to the article is roughly the cost of a pack of cigarettes. So I guess it’s possible. It just depends where you put the cutoff for “low-income” and where you put the cutoff for “smoker.” I also wonder whether the numerator and denominator are comparable. It might be that if you add up all of these people’s expenses and divide by their income, you’ll get a ratio of more than 100%.
5 0.8527745 1397 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-27-Stand Your Ground laws and homicides
Introduction: Jeff points me to a paper by Chandler McClellan and Erdal Tekin which begins as follows: The controversies surrounding Stand Your Ground laws have recently captured the nation’s attention. Since 2005, eighteen states have passed laws extending the right to self-defense with no duty to retreat to any place a person has a legal right to be, and several additional states are debating the adoption of similar legislation. Despite the implications that these laws may have for public safety, there has been little empirical investigation of their impact on crime and victimization. In this paper, we use monthly data from the U.S. Vital Statistics to examine how Stand Your Ground laws affect homicides. We identify the impact of these laws by exploiting variation in the effective date of these laws across states. Our results indicate that Stand Your Ground laws are associated with a significant increase in the number of homicides among whites, especially white males. According to our estimat
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