andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-1032 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

1032 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Does Avastin work on breast cancer? Should Medicare be paying for it?


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Introduction: Discussion by a panel of experts at the Statistics Forum .


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Introduction: Discussion by a panel of experts at the Statistics Forum .

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Introduction: Discussion by a panel of experts at the Statistics Forum .

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Introduction: Since we’ve been discussing prior distributions on covariance matrices, I will recommend this recent article (coauthored with Tomoki Tokuda, Ben Goodrich, Iven Van Mechelen, and Francis Tuerlinckx) on their visualization: We present some methods for graphing distributions of covariance matrices and demonstrate them on several models, including the Wishart, inverse-Wishart, and scaled inverse-Wishart families in different dimensions. Our visualizations follow the principle of decomposing a covariance matrix into scale parameters and correlations, pulling out marginal summaries where possible and using two and three-dimensional plots to reveal multivariate structure. Visualizing a distribution of covariance matrices is a step beyond visualizing a single covariance matrix or a single multivariate dataset. Our visualization methods are available through the R package VisCov.

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Introduction: Phil pointed me to this paper so I thought I probably better repeat what I wrote a couple years ago: 1. The effects are certainly not zero. We are not machines, and anything that can affect our expectations (for example, our success in previous tries) should affect our performance. 2. The effects I’ve seen are small, on the order of 2 percentage points (for example, the probability of a success in some sports task might be 45% if you’re “hot” and 43% otherwise). 3. There’s a huge amount of variation, not just between but also among players. Sometimes if you succeed you will stay relaxed and focused, other times you can succeed and get overconfidence. 4. Whatever the latest results on particular sports, I can’t see anyone overturning the basic finding of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky that players and spectators alike will perceive the hot hand even when it does not exist and dramatically overestimate the magnitude and consistency of any hot-hand phenomenon that does exist.

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Introduction: Gur Yaari writes : Anyone who has ever watched a sports competition is familiar with expressions like “on fire”, “in the zone”, “on a roll”, “momentum” and so on. But what do these expressions really mean? In 1985 when Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky studied this phenomenon for the first time, they defined it as: “. . . these phrases express a belief that the performance of a player during a particular period is significantly better than expected on the basis of the player’s overall record”. Their conclusion was that what people tend to perceive as a “hot hand” is essentially a cognitive illusion caused by a misperception of random sequences. Until recently there was little, if any, evidence to rule out their conclusion. Increased computing power and new data availability from various sports now provide surprising evidence of this phenomenon, thus reigniting the debate. Yaari goes on to some studies that have found time dependence in basketball, baseball, voll

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Introduction: I remember in 4th grade or so, the teacher would give us a list of vocabulary words each week and we’d have to show we learned them by using each in a sentence. We quickly got bored and decided to do the assignment by writing a single sentence using all ten words. (Which the teacher hated, of course.) The above headline is in that spirit, combining blog posts rather than vocabulary words. But that only uses two of the entries. To really do the job, I’d need to throw in bivariate associations, ecological fallacies, high-dimensional feature selection, statistical significance, the suddenly unpopular name Hilary, snotty reviewers, the contagion of obesity, and milk-related spam. Or we could bring in some of the all-time favorites, such as Bayesians, economists, Finland, beautiful parents and their daughters, goofy graphics, red and blue states, essentialism in children’s reasoning, chess running, and zombies. Putting 8 of these in a single sentence (along with Glenn Hubbard

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