andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-893 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: “She was forty years old when she died. It is possible that her art might have developed to include a wider area of human experience, just as possible that the chilling climate of the thirties might have withered it altogether. But what she actually wrote was greatly talented. She deserves a place, although obviously not a foremost one, in any literary history of the years between the wars. The last letter she wrote, or rather dictated, to the printer of the Laforgue translations shows the invariable fastidiousness of her talent, a fastidiousness which is often infuriating but just as often impressive, and is in any case rare enough to be worth remembrance: To the Printer of Six Moral Tales This book is to be spelled and its words are to be hyphenated according to the usage of the Concise Oxford Dictionary. Page introduction continuously with the tales. Do not put brackets around the numbers of the pages. All the ‘todays’ and all the ‘tomorrows’ should be spelled w
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6 ” All the todays and all the tomorrows, indeed. [sent-10, score-0.346]
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same-blog 1 1.0 893 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-06-Julian Symons on Frances Newman
Introduction: “She was forty years old when she died. It is possible that her art might have developed to include a wider area of human experience, just as possible that the chilling climate of the thirties might have withered it altogether. But what she actually wrote was greatly talented. She deserves a place, although obviously not a foremost one, in any literary history of the years between the wars. The last letter she wrote, or rather dictated, to the printer of the Laforgue translations shows the invariable fastidiousness of her talent, a fastidiousness which is often infuriating but just as often impressive, and is in any case rare enough to be worth remembrance: To the Printer of Six Moral Tales This book is to be spelled and its words are to be hyphenated according to the usage of the Concise Oxford Dictionary. Page introduction continuously with the tales. Do not put brackets around the numbers of the pages. All the ‘todays’ and all the ‘tomorrows’ should be spelled w
2 0.084218897 1785 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-02-So much artistic talent
Introduction: I saw this excellent art show the other day, and it reminded me how much artistic talent is out there. I really have no idea whassup with those all-black canvases and the other stuff you see at modern art museums, given that there’s so much interesting new stuff being created every year. I see a big difference between art made by people who feel they have something they want to say, compared to art being made by people who feel they are supposed to make art because they’re artists. And there’s also the internal logic of art responding to other art, as Tom Wolfe discussed in The Painted Word.
3 0.067329444 1642 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-28-New book by Stef van Buuren on missing-data imputation looks really good!
Introduction: Ben points us to a new book, Flexible Imputation of Missing Data . It’s excellent and I highly recommend it. Definitely worth the $89.95. Van Buuren’s book is great even if you don’t end up using the algorithm described in the book (I actually like their approach but I do think there are some limitations with their particular implementation, which is one reason we’re developing our own package ); he supplies lots of intuition, examples, and graphs. P.S. Stef’s book features an introduction by Don Rubin, which gets me thinking: if Don can find the time to write an introduction to somebody else’s book, he surely should be willing to read and comment on the third edition of his own book, no?
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Introduction: Well put.
5 0.057231233 1658 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-07-Free advice from an academic writing coach!
Introduction: Basbøll writes : I [Basbøll] have got to come up with forty things to say [in the next few months]. . . . What would you like me to write about? I’ll of course be writing quite a bit about what I’m now calling “article design”, i.e., how to map out the roughly forty paragraphs that a journal article is composed of. And I’ll also be talking about how to plan the writing process that is to produce those paragraphs. The basic principle is still to write at least one paragraph a day in 27 minutes. (You can adapt this is various ways to your own taste; some like 18-minute or even 13-minute paragraphs.) But I’d like to talk about questions of style, too, and even a little bit about epistemology. “Knowledge—academic knowledge, that is—is the ability to compose a coherent prose paragraph about something in 27 minutes,” I always say. I’d like to reflect a little more about what this conception of knowledge really means. This means I’ll have to walk back my recent dismissal of epistemol
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same-blog 1 0.96613854 893 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-06-Julian Symons on Frances Newman
Introduction: “She was forty years old when she died. It is possible that her art might have developed to include a wider area of human experience, just as possible that the chilling climate of the thirties might have withered it altogether. But what she actually wrote was greatly talented. She deserves a place, although obviously not a foremost one, in any literary history of the years between the wars. The last letter she wrote, or rather dictated, to the printer of the Laforgue translations shows the invariable fastidiousness of her talent, a fastidiousness which is often infuriating but just as often impressive, and is in any case rare enough to be worth remembrance: To the Printer of Six Moral Tales This book is to be spelled and its words are to be hyphenated according to the usage of the Concise Oxford Dictionary. Page introduction continuously with the tales. Do not put brackets around the numbers of the pages. All the ‘todays’ and all the ‘tomorrows’ should be spelled w
2 0.74693632 16 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling
Introduction: This is my last entry derived from Anthony Burgess’s book reviews , and it’ll be short. His review of Angus Wilson’s “The Strange Ride of Rudyard Kipling: His Life and Works” is a wonderfully balanced little thing. Nothing incredibly deep–like most items in the collection, the review is only two pages long–but I give it credit for being a rare piece of Kipling criticism I’ve seen that (a) seriously engages with the politics, without (b) congratulating itself on bravely going against the fashions of the politically incorrect chattering classes by celebrating Kipling’s magnificent achievement blah blah blah. Instead, Burgess shows respect for Kipling’s work and puts it in historical, biographical, and literary context. Burgess concludes that Wilson’s book “reminds us, in John Gross’s words, that Kipling ‘remains a haunting, unsettling presence, with whom we still have to come to terms.’ Still.” Well put, and generous of Burgess to end his review with another’s quote. Other cri
3 0.73102903 432 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-Neumann update
Introduction: Steve Hsu, who started off this discussion, had some comments on my speculations on the personality of John von Neumann and others. Steve writes: I [Hsu] actually knew Feynman a bit when I was an undergrad, and found him to be very nice to students. Since then I have heard quite a few stories from people in theoretical physics which emphasize his nastier side, and I think in the end he was quite a complicated person like everyone else. There are a couple of pseudo-biographies of vN, but none as high quality as, e.g., Gleick’s book on Feynman or Hodges book about Turing. (Gleick studied physics as an undergrad at Harvard, and Hodges is a PhD in mathematical physics — pretty rare backgrounds for biographers!) For example, as mentioned on the comment thread to your post, Steve Heims wrote a book about both vN and Wiener (!), and Norman Macrae wrote a biography of vN. Both books are worth reading, but I think neither really do him justice. The breadth of vN’s work is just too m
4 0.72079188 11 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Auto-Gladwell, or Can fractals be used to predict human history?
Introduction: I just reviewed the book Bursts, by Albert-László Barabási, for Physics Today. But I had a lot more to say that couldn’t fit into the magazine’s 800-word limit. Here I’ll reproduce what I sent to Physics Today, followed by my additional thoughts. The back cover of Bursts book promises “a revolutionary new theory showing how we can predict human behavior.” I wasn’t fully convinced on that score, but the book does offer a well-written and thought-provoking window into author Albert-László Barabási’s research in power laws and network theory. Power laws–the mathematical pattern that little things are common and large things are rare–have been observed in many different domains, including incomes (as noted by economist Vilfredo Pareto in the nineteenth century), word frequencies (as noted by linguist George Zipf), city sizes, earthquakes, and virtually anything else that can be measured. In the mid-twentieth century, the mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot devoted an influential caree
5 0.71583092 258 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-05-A review of a review of a review of a decade
Introduction: At the sister blog, David Frum writes , of a book by historian Laura Kalman about the politics of the 1970s: As a work of history about the Ford and Carter years, there is nothing seriously wrong with it. The facts are accurate, the writing is clear and the point of view is not tendentious. Once upon a time, such a book might have been useful to somebody. But the question it raises–and it’s not a question about this book alone–is: What’s the point of this kind of history in the age of the Internet? Suppose I’m an undergraduate who stumbles for the first time across the phrase “Proposition 13.” I could, if I were minded, walk over to the university library, pull this book from the shelf and flip to the index. Or I could save myself two hours and Google it. I wouldn’t learn more from a Google search than I’d learn in these pages. But I wouldn’t learn a whole lot less either. As a textbook writer, I think about some of these issues too! I have two things to add to Frum’s rem
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same-blog 1 0.87690139 893 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-06-Julian Symons on Frances Newman
Introduction: “She was forty years old when she died. It is possible that her art might have developed to include a wider area of human experience, just as possible that the chilling climate of the thirties might have withered it altogether. But what she actually wrote was greatly talented. She deserves a place, although obviously not a foremost one, in any literary history of the years between the wars. The last letter she wrote, or rather dictated, to the printer of the Laforgue translations shows the invariable fastidiousness of her talent, a fastidiousness which is often infuriating but just as often impressive, and is in any case rare enough to be worth remembrance: To the Printer of Six Moral Tales This book is to be spelled and its words are to be hyphenated according to the usage of the Concise Oxford Dictionary. Page introduction continuously with the tales. Do not put brackets around the numbers of the pages. All the ‘todays’ and all the ‘tomorrows’ should be spelled w
2 0.78024989 1067 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-18-Christopher Hitchens was a Bayesian
Introduction: 1. We Bayesian statisticians like to say there are three kinds of statisticians: a. Bayesians; b. People who are Bayesians but don’t realize it (that is, they act in coherence with some unstated probability); c. Failed Bayesians (that is, people whose inference could be improved by some attention to coherence). So, if a statistician does great work, we are inclined to claim this person for the Bayesian cause, even if he or she vehemently denies any Bayesian leanings. 2. In his autobiography, Bertrand Russell tells the story of when he went to prison for opposing World War 1: I [Russell] was much cheered on my arrival by the warden at the gate, who had to take particulars about me. He asked my religion, and I replied ‘agnostic.’ He asked how to spell it, and remarked with a sigh: “Well, there are many religions, but I suppose they all worship the same God.” This remark kept me cheerful for about a week. 3. In an op-ed today, Ross Douthat argues that celebrated a
3 0.76997626 1396 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-27-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: If Paul Krugman is right and it’s 1931, what happens next? What’s with Niall Ferguson? Hey, this reminds me of the Democrats in the U.S. . . . Would President Romney contract the economy? Inconsistency with prior knowledge triggers children’s causal explanatory reasoning
4 0.74305379 522 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-18-Problems with Haiti elections?
Introduction: Mark Weisbrot points me to this report trashing a recent OAS report on Haiti’s elections. Weisbrot writes: The two simplest things that are wrong with the OAS analysis are: (1) By looking only at a sample of the tally sheets and not using any statistical test, they have no idea how many other tally sheets would also be thrown out by the same criteria that they used, and how that would change the result and (2) The missing/quarantined tally sheets are much greater in number than the ones that they threw out; our analysis indicates that if these votes had been counted, the result would go the other way. I have not had a chance to take a look at this myself but I’m posting it here so that experts on election irregularities can see this and give their judgments. P.S. Weisbrot updates: We [Weisbrot et al.] published our actual paper on the OAS Mission’s Report today. The press release is here and gives a very good summary of the major problems with the OAS Mission rep
5 0.70064855 28 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-12-Alert: Incompetent colleague wastes time of hardworking Wolfram Research publicist
Introduction: Marty McKee at Wolfram Research appears to have a very very stupid colleague. McKee wrote to Christian Robert: Your article, “Evidence and Evolution: A review”, caught the attention of one of my colleagues, who thought that it could be developed into an interesting Demonstration to add to the Wolfram Demonstrations Project. As Christian points out, adapting his book review into a computer demonstration would be quite a feat! I wonder what McKee’s colleague could be thinking? I recommend that Wolfram fire McKee’s colleague immediately: what an idiot! P.S. I’m not actually sure that McKee was the author of this email; I’m guessing this was the case because this other very similar email was written under his name. P.P.S. To head off the inevitable comments: Yes, yes, I know this is no big deal and I shouldn’t get bent out of shape about it. But . . . Wolfram Research has contributed such great things to the world, that I hate to think of them wasting any money paying
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