andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1278 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: As a statistician I am particularly worried about the rhetorical power of anecdotes (even though I use them in my own reasoning; see discussion below). But much can be learned from a true anecdote. The rough edges—the places where the anecdote doesn’t fit your thesis—these are where you learn. We have recently had a discussion ( here and here ) of Karl Weick, a prominent scholar of business management who plagiarized a story and then went on to draw different lessons from the pilfered anecdote in several different publications published over many years. Setting aside an issues of plagiarism and rulebreaking, I argue that, by hiding the source of the story and changing its form, Weick and his management-science audience are losing their ability to get anything out of it beyond empty confirmation. A full discussion follows. 1. The lost Hungarian soldiers Thomas Basbøll (who has the unusual (to me) job of “writing consultant” at the Copenhagen Business School) has been
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1 As a statistician I am particularly worried about the rhetorical power of anecdotes (even though I use them in my own reasoning; see discussion below). [sent-1, score-0.331]
2 We have recently had a discussion ( here and here ) of Karl Weick, a prominent scholar of business management who plagiarized a story and then went on to draw different lessons from the pilfered anecdote in several different publications published over many years. [sent-4, score-0.402]
3 Setting aside an issues of plagiarism and rulebreaking, I argue that, by hiding the source of the story and changing its form, Weick and his management-science audience are losing their ability to get anything out of it beyond empty confirmation. [sent-5, score-0.295]
4 The story started with a discovery that of plagiarism by the eminent scholar Karl Weick but then moved toward a more general exploration of storytelling and belief. [sent-9, score-0.292]
5 The scouting squad did not return, and the young officer, something of an intellectual and an idealist, suffered a paroxysm of guilt over having sent his men to their death. [sent-21, score-0.304]
6 In his torment he questioned not only his decision to send out the scouting mission, but also the war itself and his own role in it. [sent-22, score-0.267]
7 The moral of the story, as given by Hechter and by Bernard Pullman at another symposium a year later, is that the map gave the soldiers the confidence to make good decisions. [sent-35, score-0.313]
8 ” The moral of the story: “When you are lost, any old map will do. [sent-42, score-0.272]
9 2005: Barbara Czarniawska reports on a 1998 talk: “If any old map will do to help you find your way out of the Alps,” Weick had said, “then surely any old story will do to help you find your way out of puzzles in the human condition. [sent-47, score-0.433]
10 In the earliest known tellings (by Hechter and Pullman), the only clear role of the map was to calm the soldiers os they could find their way back to camp on their own. [sent-49, score-0.381]
11 This is where we come to the point about anecdotes that I discussed in the three paragraphs at the start of the post. [sent-52, score-0.281]
12 Full circle Going beyond questions of plagiarism and scholarly ethics, the Szent-Györgyi/Holub/Weick story is relevant for our discussion because it sheds (anecdotal) light on the relevance of anecdotal reasoning and the nature of evidence. [sent-55, score-0.354]
13 Reliance on anecdotes is already iffy because of selection problems, but when the stories can be altered, the concepts of confirmation and falsification are turned on their head. [sent-57, score-0.36]
14 The meta-statistical principle that “God is in every leaf of every tree” is very close to Weick’s “any old story will do to help you find your way out of puzzles in the human condition. [sent-64, score-0.406]
15 Constructing the leaf from a research hypothesis, or altering the leaf to fit the hypotheses, won’t give you as much (although you can still learn something, for example if you take care to note how many changes you needed to make to keep your audience happy). [sent-70, score-0.479]
16 I have built up a huge store of personal anecdotes about statistics, whereas Weick must largely rely on the anecdotes of others. [sent-102, score-0.562]
17 Getting back to the comparison: I really do use anecdotes as evidence, as well as to illustrate existing principles. [sent-109, score-0.281]
18 For Weick, anecdotes play the role of the map in his some of his interpretations of Szent-Györgyi’s story: It’s ok if you get the details and sourcing wrong, all that matters that it motivates you to move forward. [sent-113, score-0.605]
19 Putting it all together I have discussed several themes relating to the use of anecdotes in scientific learning. [sent-117, score-0.341]
20 In other fields, though, anecdotes play a different role, and their truth or falsity, even their sources, do not seem to be so important. [sent-121, score-0.33]
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