andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1567 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: As you can see below, our post-election-day post is in the Zombies category. (I’d like to say this was deliberate counterprogramming, but actually I put in the queue last month, not realizing there would be anything special about the date.) So I’ve been posting election-related material at the sister blog. So far: Very first 2016 post Who won the election for Obama? Purple maps of the 2012 presidential election More to come.
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 As you can see below, our post-election-day post is in the Zombies category. [sent-1, score-0.244]
2 (I’d like to say this was deliberate counterprogramming, but actually I put in the queue last month, not realizing there would be anything special about the date. [sent-2, score-1.616]
3 ) So I’ve been posting election-related material at the sister blog. [sent-3, score-0.577]
4 So far: Very first 2016 post Who won the election for Obama? [sent-4, score-0.742]
5 Purple maps of the 2012 presidential election More to come. [sent-5, score-0.766]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('deliberate', 0.34), ('election', 0.338), ('purple', 0.318), ('queue', 0.31), ('zombies', 0.263), ('realizing', 0.257), ('maps', 0.219), ('presidential', 0.209), ('sister', 0.208), ('posting', 0.198), ('post', 0.194), ('obama', 0.182), ('month', 0.181), ('material', 0.171), ('special', 0.162), ('won', 0.137), ('far', 0.121), ('come', 0.109), ('last', 0.108), ('anything', 0.107), ('put', 0.095), ('actually', 0.082), ('first', 0.073), ('say', 0.072), ('ve', 0.064), ('see', 0.05), ('would', 0.042), ('like', 0.041)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1567 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-07-Election reports
Introduction: As you can see below, our post-election-day post is in the Zombies category. (I’d like to say this was deliberate counterprogramming, but actually I put in the queue last month, not realizing there would be anything special about the date.) So I’ve been posting election-related material at the sister blog. So far: Very first 2016 post Who won the election for Obama? Purple maps of the 2012 presidential election More to come.
2 0.19679898 1937 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-13-Meritocracy rerun
Introduction: I’ve said it here so often, this time I put it on the sister blog. . . .
3 0.19259363 905 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-14-5 books on essentialism!
Introduction: At the sister blog .
4 0.15066504 725 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-21-People kept emailing me this one so I think I have to blog something
Introduction: Here and here , for example. I just hope they’re using our survey methods and aren’t trying to contact the zombies face-to-face!
5 0.14053237 1574 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-12-How to Lie With Statistics example number 12,498,122
Introduction: This post is by Phil Price. Bill Kristol notes that “Four presidents in the last century have won more than 51 percent of the vote twice: Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan and Obama”. I’m not sure why Kristol, a conservative, is promoting the idea that Obama has a mandate, but that’s up to him. I’m more interested in the remarkable bit of cherry-picking that led to this “only four presidents” statistic. There was one way in which Obama’s victory was large: he won the electoral college 332-206. That’s a thrashing. But if you want to claim that Obama has a “popular mandate” — which people seem to interpret as an overwhelming preference of The People such that the opposition is morally obligated to give way — you can’t make that argument based on the electoral college, you have to look at the popular vote. That presents you with a challenge for the 2012 election, since Obama’s 2.7-point margin in the popular vote was the 12th-smallest out of the 57 elections we’ve had. There’s a nice sor
6 0.13876486 1570 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-08-Poll aggregation and election forecasting
7 0.1338073 900 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-11-Symptomatic innumeracy
10 0.11809871 1629 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-It happened in Connecticut
11 0.11430074 84 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-Is it 1930?
12 0.11184336 2343 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-22-Big Data needs Big Model
13 0.11116491 43 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-What do Tuesday’s elections tell us about November?
14 0.10890294 292 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Doug Hibbs on the fundamentals in 2010
15 0.10863787 2255 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-19-How Americans vote
16 0.10808444 104 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Seeking balance
17 0.10489451 1649 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-02-Back when 50 miles was a long way
18 0.10227267 654 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-09-There’s no evidence that voters choose presidential candidates based on their looks
19 0.096759081 1544 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-22-Is it meaningful to talk about a probability of “65.7%” that Obama will win the election?
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.09), (1, -0.069), (2, 0.055), (3, 0.087), (4, -0.047), (5, -0.005), (6, -0.011), (7, -0.057), (8, -0.002), (9, -0.075), (10, 0.092), (11, 0.041), (12, 0.076), (13, -0.05), (14, -0.071), (15, 0.017), (16, -0.097), (17, -0.029), (18, -0.03), (19, 0.094), (20, 0.016), (21, 0.049), (22, -0.095), (23, 0.103), (24, 0.048), (25, -0.001), (26, -0.021), (27, -0.056), (28, 0.032), (29, -0.002), (30, -0.021), (31, 0.022), (32, -0.016), (33, 0.006), (34, 0.023), (35, -0.005), (36, 0.016), (37, -0.045), (38, -0.009), (39, 0.016), (40, -0.011), (41, -0.03), (42, 0.037), (43, 0.015), (44, 0.029), (45, 0.03), (46, 0.024), (47, -0.008), (48, -0.014), (49, -0.033)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.96448952 1567 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-07-Election reports
Introduction: As you can see below, our post-election-day post is in the Zombies category. (I’d like to say this was deliberate counterprogramming, but actually I put in the queue last month, not realizing there would be anything special about the date.) So I’ve been posting election-related material at the sister blog. So far: Very first 2016 post Who won the election for Obama? Purple maps of the 2012 presidential election More to come.
2 0.74729502 1647 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-01-Neoconservatism circa 1986
Introduction: Tutu forecast and religion and torture (from the sister blog). P.S. For partisan balance, don’t forget this projection from 1961.
3 0.70611936 900 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-11-Symptomatic innumeracy
Introduction: I put it at the sister blog so the politics-haters among you could skip it. . . .
Introduction: I put it on the sister blog so you loyal readers here wouldn’t be distracted by it.
5 0.69223565 905 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-14-5 books on essentialism!
Introduction: At the sister blog .
6 0.68495828 1629 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-It happened in Connecticut
7 0.66827285 2344 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-23-The gremlins did it? Iffy statistics drive strong policy recommendations
8 0.66142267 1937 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-13-Meritocracy rerun
9 0.64649677 210 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-16-What I learned from those tough 538 commenters
10 0.63554388 1570 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-08-Poll aggregation and election forecasting
11 0.62766421 2126 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-07-If I could’ve done it all over again
12 0.62420928 966 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-20-A qualified but incomplete thanks to Gregg Easterbrook’s editor at Reuters
13 0.62321568 1540 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-18-“Intrade to the 57th power”
14 0.62229753 856 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-16-Our new improved blog! Thanks to Cord Blomquist
15 0.6194948 91 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-RSS mess
16 0.61846018 2088 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-04-Recently in the sister blog
17 0.60370708 1512 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-27-A Non-random Walk Down Campaign Street
18 0.59448445 1544 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-22-Is it meaningful to talk about a probability of “65.7%” that Obama will win the election?
19 0.59207457 1574 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-12-How to Lie With Statistics example number 12,498,122
20 0.58597052 2085 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-02-I’ve already written next year’s April Fools post!
topicId topicWeight
[(2, 0.433), (20, 0.039), (24, 0.074), (99, 0.285)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
1 0.95374948 663 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-15-Happy tax day!
Introduction: Your taxes pay for the research funding that supports the work we do here, some of which appears on this blog and almost all of which is public, free, and open-source. So, to all of the taxpayers out there in the audience: thank you.
2 0.92956489 97 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Economic Disparities and Life Satisfaction in European Regions
Introduction: Grazia Pittau, Roberto Zelli, and I came out with a paper investigating the role of economic variables in predicting regional disparities in reported life satisfaction of European Union citizens. We use multilevel modeling to explicitly account for the hierarchical nature of our data, respondents within regions and countries, and for understanding patterns of variation within and between regions. Here’s what we found: - Personal income matters more in poor regions than in rich regions, a pattern that still holds for regions within the same country. - Being unemployed is negatively associated with life satisfaction even after controlled for income variation. Living in high unemployment regions does not alleviate the unhappiness of being out of work. - After controlling for individual characteristics and modeling interactions, regional differences in life satisfaction still remain. Here’s a quick graph; there’s more in the article:
3 0.91092056 489 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-28-Brow inflation
Introduction: In an article headlined, “Hollywood moves away from middlebrow,” Brooks Barnes writes : As Hollywood plowed into 2010, there was plenty of clinging to the tried and true: humdrum remakes like “The Wolfman” and “The A-Team”; star vehicles like “Killers” with Ashton Kutcher and “The Tourist” with Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp; and shoddy sequels like “Sex and the City 2.” All arrived at theaters with marketing thunder intended to fill multiplexes on opening weekend, no matter the quality of the film. . . . But the audience pushed back. One by one, these expensive yet middle-of-the-road pictures delivered disappointing results or flat-out flopped. Meanwhile, gambles on original concepts paid off. “Inception,” a complicated thriller about dream invaders, racked up more than $825 million in global ticket sales; “The Social Network” has so far delivered $192 million, a stellar result for a highbrow drama. . . . the message that the year sent about quality and originality is real enoug
4 0.89988065 44 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-20-Boris was right
Introduction: Boris Shor in January : the pivotal Senator will now be a Republican, not a Democrat . . . Brown stands to become the pivotal member of the Senate. The New York Times today : The Senate voted on Thursday afternoon to close debate on a far-reaching financial regulatory bill . . . In an interesting twist, the decisive vote was supplied by Senator Scott Brown, the Republican freshman of Massachusetts . . .
5 0.89854276 17 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-05-Taking philosophical arguments literally
Introduction: Aaron Swartz writes the following, as a lead-in to an argument in favor of vegetarianism: Imagine you were an early settler of what is now the United States. It seems likely you would have killed native Americans. After all, your parents killed them, your siblings killed them, your friends killed them, the leaders of the community killed them, the President killed them. Chances are, you would have killed them too . . . Or if you see nothing wrong with killing native Americans, take the example of slavery. Again, everyone had slaves and probably didn’t think too much about the morality of it. . . . Are these statements true, though? It’s hard for me to believe that most early settlers (from the context, it looks like Swartz is discussing the 1500s-1700s here) killed native Americans. That is, if N is the number of early settlers, and Y is the number of these settlers who killed at least one Indian, I suspect Y/N is much closer to 0 than to 1. Similarly, it’s not even cl
same-blog 7 0.86665523 1567 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-07-Election reports
8 0.85791326 1189 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-28-Those darn physicists
9 0.85429817 549 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-01-“Roughly 90% of the increase in . . .” Hey, wait a minute!
10 0.85055369 1260 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-11-Hunger Games survival analysis
11 0.84761518 1508 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-23-Speaking frankly
12 0.84748423 1017 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-18-Lack of complete overlap
13 0.84389478 1698 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-30-The spam just gets weirder and weirder
14 0.83200085 1663 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-09-The effects of fiscal consolidation
15 0.81215715 1102 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-06-Bayesian Anova found useful in ecology
16 0.81117791 1893 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-11-Folic acid and autism
17 0.80888188 694 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-04-My talk at Hunter College on Thurs
18 0.80340183 1872 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-More spam!
19 0.77124488 1954 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-24-Too Good To Be True: The Scientific Mass Production of Spurious Statistical Significance
20 0.76440591 2360 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-05-Identifying pathways for managing multiple disturbances to limit plant invasions