andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1765 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: 1. New Italian production of Life on Mars . 2. Psychological essentialism in everyday thought .
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same-blog 1 1.0 1765 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-16-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: 1. New Italian production of Life on Mars . 2. Psychological essentialism in everyday thought .
2 0.22956701 1107 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-08-More on essentialism
Introduction: Matthieu Authier writes: I just read Genetic essentialism is in our genes . Here are a few papers from Kenneth Weiss about this missing heritability problem and genetic essentialism: Evol.Ant.2011 – Weiss – Seeing the forest through the gene-trees Genetics.2011 – Weiss.&.Buchanan – Is life-law-like
3 0.12118496 20 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of soccer results
Introduction: Gianluca Baio sends along this article (coauthored with Marta Blangiardo): The problem of modelling football [soccer] data has become increasingly popular in the last few years and many different models have been proposed with the aim of estimating the characteristics that bring a team to lose or win a game, or to predict the score of a particular match. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to address both these aims and test its predictive strength on data about the Italian Serie A championship 1991-1992. To overcome the issue of overshrinkage produced by the Bayesian hierarchical model, we specify a more complex mixture model that results in better fit to the observed data. We test its performance using an example about the Italian Serie A championship 2007-2008. I like the use of the hierarchical model and the focus on prediction. I’m wondering, though, shouldn’t the model include a correlation between the “attack” and “defense” parameters? Or maybe that’s in the m
4 0.11880188 2278 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-01-Association for Psychological Science announces a new journal
Introduction: The Association for Psychological Science, the leading organization of research psychologists, announced a long-awaited new journal, Speculations on Psychological Science . From the official APS press release: Speculations on Psychological Science, the flagship journal of the Association for Psychological Science, will publish cutting-edge research articles, short reports, and research reports spanning the entire spectrum of the science of psychology. We anticipate that Speculations on Psychological Science will be the highest ranked empirical journal in psychology. We recognize that many of the most noteworthy published claims in psychology and related fields are not well supported by data, hence the need for a journal for the publication of such exciting speculations without misleading claims of certainty. - Sigmund Watson, Prof. (Ret.) Miskatonic University, and editor-in-chief, Speculations on Psychological Science I applaud this development. Indeed, I’ve been talking ab
5 0.10122905 2338 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-19-My short career as a Freud expert
Introduction: I received the following email the other day (well, actually it was the other month, as we’re still on blog-delay): Dear Prof. Andrew Gelman, The ** Broadcasting Authority, together with ** – a well-established production company, are producing a documentary about Freud. The documentary presents different points of view regarding Freud’s personality and theories. At this stage of the production we are mainly interested in views regarding the influence Freud / Freudism / Psychoanalysis have on our culture – whether positive or negative. We are addressing the effect Freud and/or analysis left on the culture regarding morality, the law system, therapy, art, consumerism, films, etc. We would like to interview you on your point of view regarding Freud’s mark on humanity in regard to the Economy. Once you respond favorably we can proceed and precisely define the topics of the talk. The shooting in NYC is on May 27th and should not demand more than one hour of your time. We’ll app
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same-blog 1 0.94637048 1765 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-16-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: 1. New Italian production of Life on Mars . 2. Psychological essentialism in everyday thought .
2 0.65999907 1548 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-25-Health disparities are associated with low life expectancy
Introduction: Lee Seachrest points to an article , “Life expectancy and disparity: an international comparison of life table data,” by James Vaupel, Zhen Zhang, and Alyson van Raalte. This paper has killer graphs. Here are their results: In 89 of the 170 years from 1840 to 2009, the country with the highest male life expectancy also had the lowest male life disparity. This was true in 86 years for female life expectancy and disparity. In all years, the top several life expectancy leaders were also the top life disparity leaders. Although only 38% of deaths were premature, fully 84% of the increase in life expectancy resulted from averting premature deaths. The reduction in life disparity resulted from reductions in early-life disparity, that is, disparity caused by premature deaths; late-life disparity levels remained roughly constant. The authors also note: Reducing early-life disparities helps people plan their less-uncertain lifetimes. A higher likelihood of surviving to old age
3 0.56113327 1546 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-24-Hey—has anybody done this study yet?
Introduction: A few years ago I suggested a research project to study how Americans define themselves in terms of regional identity. For example, if you grew up in South Dakota but live in Washington, D.C., do you you call yourself a midwesterner, a westerner, a southerner, or what? The analogy is to the paper by Michael Hout on “How 4 million Irish immigrants became 40 million Irish Americans.” Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t about prolific breeding, it was about how people of mixed background choose to classify themselves.
4 0.54353875 1147 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-30-Statistical Murder
Introduction: Image via Wikipedia Robert Zubrin writes in “How Much Is an Astronaut’s Life Worth?” ( Reason , Feb 2012 ): …policy analyst John D. Graham and his colleagues at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis found in 1997 that the median cost for lifesaving expenditures and regulations by the U.S. government in the health care, residential, transportation, and occupational areas ranges from about $1 million to $3 million spent per life saved in today’s dollars. The only marked exception to this pattern occurs in the area of environmental health protection (such as the Superfund program) which costs about $200 million per life saved. Graham and his colleagues call the latter kind of inefficiency “ statistical murder ,” since thousands of additional lives could be saved each year if the money were used more cost-effectively. To avoid such deadly waste, the Department of Transportation has a policy of rejecting any proposed safety expenditure that costs more than $3
5 0.53439271 1558 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-02-Not so fast on levees and seawalls for NY harbor?
Introduction: I was talking with June Williamson and mentioned offhand that I’d seen something in the paper saying that if only we’d invested a few billion dollars in levees we would’ve saved zillions in economic damage from the flood. (A quick search also revealed this eerily prescient article from last month and, more recently, this online discussion.) June said, No, no, no: levees are not the way to go: Here and here are the articles on “soft infrastructure” for the New York-New Jersey Harbor I was mentioning, summarizing work that is more extensively published in two books, “Rising Currents” and “On the Water: Palisade Bay”: The hazards posed by climate change, sea level rise, and severe storm surges make this the time to transform our coastal cities through adaptive design. The conventional response to flooding, in recent history, has been hard engineering — fortifying the coastal infrastructure with seawalls and bulkheads to protect real estate at the expense of natural t
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same-blog 1 0.92326629 1765 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-16-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: 1. New Italian production of Life on Mars . 2. Psychological essentialism in everyday thought .
2 0.71191257 565 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-09-Dennis the dentist, debunked?
Introduction: Devah Pager points me to this article by Uri Simonsohn, which begins: Three articles published [by Brett Pelham et al.] have shown that a disproportionate share of people choose spouses, places to live, and occupations with names similar to their own. These findings, interpreted as evidence of implicit egotism, are included in most modern social psychology textbooks and many university courses. The current article successfully replicates the original findings but shows that they are most likely caused by a combination of cohort, geographic, and ethnic confounds as well as reverse causality. From Simonsohn’s article, here’s a handy summary of the claims and the evidence (click on it to enlarge): The Pelham et al. articles have come up several times on the blog, starting with this discussion and this estimate and then more recently here . I’m curious what Pelham and his collaborators think of Simonsohn’s claims.
3 0.64710718 1736 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-24-Rcpp class in Sat 9 Mar in NYC
Introduction: Join Dirk Eddelbuettel for six hours of detailed and hands-on instructions and discussions around Rcpp, RInside, RcppArmadillo, RcppGSL and other packages . . . Rcpp has become the most widely-used language extension for R. Currently deployed by 103 CRAN packages and a further 10 BioConductor packages, it permits users and developers to pass “whole R objects” with ease between R and C++ . . . Morning session: “A Hands-on Introduction to R and C++” . . . Afternoon session: “Advanced R and C++ Topics” . . .
4 0.59344923 2166 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-10-3 years out of date on the whole Dennis the dentist thing!
Introduction: Paging Uri Simonsohn . . . January 2014: Alice Robb writes , completely uncritically: “If Your Name is Dennis, You’re More Likely to Become a Dentist The strange science of how names shape careers.” But look what you can learn from a quick google: Hmmmm, maybe worth following up on that second link . . . More details here , from 2011: Devah Pager points me to this article by Uri Simonsohn, which begins: Three articles published [by Brett Pelham et al.] have shown that a disproportionate share of people choose spouses, places to live, and occupations with names similar to their own. These findings, interpreted as evidence of implicit egotism, are included in most modern social psychology textbooks and many university courses. The current article successfully replicates the original findings but shows that they are most likely caused by a combination of cohort, geographic, and ethnic confounds as well as reverse causality. From Simonsohn’s article, here’s a han
5 0.51331949 1068 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-18-Faculty who don’t like teaching and hate working with students
Introduction: Peter Woit links to Steve Hsu linking to a 1977 interview by Katherine Sopka of physics professor Sidney Coleman. I don’t know anything about Coleman’s research but the interview caught my eye because one of my roommates in grad school was one of Coleman’s advisees. Anyway, here’s the key bit from the interview: Sopka: But you do enjoy working with students or do you? Coleman: No. I hate it. You do it as part of the job. Well, that’s of course false…or maybe more true than false when I say I hate it. Occasionally there’s a student who is a joy to work with. But I certainly would be just as happy if I had no graduate students… Sopka: I guess your remark means then that you would like to avoid teaching undergraduate courses or even required graduate courses… Coleman: Or even special topics courses. Teaching is unpleasant work. No question about it. It has its rewards. One feels happy about having a job well done. Washing the dishes, waxing the floors (things I also
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