andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2103 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” : parodies that are more famous than the original. (“It would be as if everybody were familiar with Duchamp’s Mona-Lisa-with-a-moustache while never having heard of Leonardo’s version.”) Objects of the class “Whoopi Goldberg” : actors who are undeniably talented but are almost always in bad movies, or at least movies that aren’t worthy of their talent. (The opposite: William Holden.) Objects of the class “Weekend at Bernie’s” : low-quality movie, nobody’s actually seen it, but everybody knows what it’s about. (Other examples: Heathers and Zelig.) I love these. We need some more.
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” : parodies that are more famous than the original. [sent-1, score-0.387]
2 (“It would be as if everybody were familiar with Duchamp’s Mona-Lisa-with-a-moustache while never having heard of Leonardo’s version. [sent-2, score-0.556]
3 ”) Objects of the class “Whoopi Goldberg” : actors who are undeniably talented but are almost always in bad movies, or at least movies that aren’t worthy of their talent. [sent-3, score-1.715]
4 ) Objects of the class “Weekend at Bernie’s” : low-quality movie, nobody’s actually seen it, but everybody knows what it’s about. [sent-5, score-0.764]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('objects', 0.499), ('movies', 0.352), ('class', 0.274), ('duchamp', 0.246), ('undeniably', 0.246), ('everybody', 0.237), ('goldberg', 0.214), ('talented', 0.19), ('actors', 0.187), ('weekend', 0.187), ('worthy', 0.176), ('william', 0.157), ('movie', 0.145), ('opposite', 0.123), ('familiar', 0.121), ('famous', 0.113), ('knows', 0.112), ('nobody', 0.11), ('heard', 0.104), ('aren', 0.102), ('love', 0.1), ('seen', 0.087), ('almost', 0.086), ('examples', 0.084), ('bad', 0.073), ('least', 0.067), ('never', 0.067), ('always', 0.064), ('need', 0.062), ('actually', 0.054), ('would', 0.027)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 2103 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-16-Objects of the class “Objects of the class”
Introduction: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” : parodies that are more famous than the original. (“It would be as if everybody were familiar with Duchamp’s Mona-Lisa-with-a-moustache while never having heard of Leonardo’s version.”) Objects of the class “Whoopi Goldberg” : actors who are undeniably talented but are almost always in bad movies, or at least movies that aren’t worthy of their talent. (The opposite: William Holden.) Objects of the class “Weekend at Bernie’s” : low-quality movie, nobody’s actually seen it, but everybody knows what it’s about. (Other examples: Heathers and Zelig.) I love these. We need some more.
2 0.11550044 2019 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-12-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Don’t be so quick to place politicians’ views of “national interests” above the mood of the public More on those pollsters who apparently throw away completed survey responses A theory of the importance of Very Serious People in the Democratic Party Mother–child conversations about pictures and objects: Referring to categories and individuals
3 0.11071391 325 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Fitting discrete-data regression models in social science
Introduction: My lecture for Greg’s class today (taken from chapters 5-6 of ARM). Also, after class we talked a bit more about formal modeling. If I have time I’ll post some of that discussion here.
4 0.10333361 701 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-07-Bechdel wasn’t kidding
Introduction: Regular readers of this blog know about the Bechdel test for movies: 1. It has to have at least two women in it 2. Who talk to each other 3. About something besides a man Amusing, huh? But I only really got the point the other day, when I was on a plane and passively watched parts of the in-flight movie. It was something I’d never heard of (of course) and it happened to be a chick flick–even without the soundtrack, it was clear that the main character was a woman and much of it was about her love life. But even this movie failed the Bechdel test miserably! I don’t even think it passed item #1 above, but if it did, it certainly failed #2. If even the chick flicks are failing the Bechdel test, then, yeah, we’re really in trouble. And don’t get me started on those old Warner Brothers cartoons. They’re great but they feature about as many female characters as the average WWII submarine. Sure, everybody knows this, but it’s still striking to think about just how unbalanced
Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Probably not blog-worthy/blog-appropriate, but have you heard Bill James discussing the Sandusky & Paterno stuff? I think you discussed once his stance on the Dowd Report, and this seems to be from the same part of his personality—which goes beyond contrarian . . . I have in fact blogged on James ( many times ) and on Paterno , so yes I think this is blogworthy. On the other hand, most readers of this blog probably don’t care about baseball, football, or William James, so I’ll put the rest below the fold. What is legendary baseball statistician Bill James doing, defending the crime-coverups of legendary coach Joe Paterno? As I wrote in my earlier blog on Paterno, it isn’t always easy to do the right thing, and I have no idea if I’d behave any better if I were in such a situation. The characteristics of a good coach do not necessarily provide what it takes to make good decisions off the field. In this sense even more of the blame should go
6 0.094909608 1850 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-10-The recursion of pop-econ
7 0.091415562 884 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-01-My course this fall on Bayesian Computation
8 0.09127029 1626 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-16-The lamest, grudgingest, non-retraction retraction ever
9 0.08939106 2122 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-03-Objects of the class “Lawrence Summers”: Arne Duncan edition
10 0.088437431 579 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-18-What is this, a statistics class or a dentist’s office??
11 0.085109934 1965 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-02-My course this fall on l’analyse bayésienne de données
12 0.083900601 2197 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Peabody here.
13 0.083077043 1752 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-06-Online Education and Jazz
14 0.082943365 1945 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-18-“How big is your chance of dying in an ordinary play?”
15 0.078596577 1071 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-19-“NYU Professor Claims He Was Fired for Giving James Franco a D”
16 0.078112349 1787 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-04-Wanna be the next Tyler Cowen? It’s not as easy as you might think!
17 0.077115849 1736 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-24-Rcpp class in Sat 9 Mar in NYC
18 0.072176129 1582 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-18-How to teach methods we don’t like?
19 0.069377899 1211 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-13-A personal bit of spam, just for me!
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.058), (1, -0.03), (2, -0.021), (3, 0.026), (4, 0.008), (5, 0.028), (6, 0.041), (7, 0.041), (8, -0.007), (9, -0.008), (10, 0.005), (11, 0.005), (12, -0.014), (13, -0.023), (14, 0.023), (15, -0.055), (16, 0.004), (17, -0.005), (18, -0.015), (19, -0.006), (20, 0.007), (21, -0.016), (22, -0.013), (23, -0.016), (24, -0.021), (25, -0.008), (26, 0.011), (27, 0.007), (28, 0.025), (29, -0.028), (30, 0.006), (31, 0.029), (32, -0.01), (33, -0.023), (34, 0.016), (35, -0.032), (36, -0.023), (37, -0.004), (38, -0.01), (39, 0.029), (40, 0.009), (41, 0.006), (42, -0.026), (43, -0.006), (44, 0.011), (45, 0.066), (46, -0.026), (47, 0.027), (48, 0.012), (49, -0.025)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.98032618 2103 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-16-Objects of the class “Objects of the class”
Introduction: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” : parodies that are more famous than the original. (“It would be as if everybody were familiar with Duchamp’s Mona-Lisa-with-a-moustache while never having heard of Leonardo’s version.”) Objects of the class “Whoopi Goldberg” : actors who are undeniably talented but are almost always in bad movies, or at least movies that aren’t worthy of their talent. (The opposite: William Holden.) Objects of the class “Weekend at Bernie’s” : low-quality movie, nobody’s actually seen it, but everybody knows what it’s about. (Other examples: Heathers and Zelig.) I love these. We need some more.
2 0.7725774 1752 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-06-Online Education and Jazz
Introduction: Alex Tabarrok writes : There is something special, magical, and “almost sacred” about the live teaching experience. I agree that this is true for teaching at its best but it’s also irrelevant. It’s even more true that there is something special, magical and almost sacred about the live musical experience. . . . Mark Edmundson makes the analogy between teaching and music explicit: Every memorable class is a bit like a jazz composition. Quite right but every non-memorable class is also a bit like a jazz composition, namely one that was expensive, took an hour to drive to (15 minutes just to find parking) and at the end of the day wasn’t very memorable. The correct conclusion to draw from the analogy between live teaching and live music is that at their best both are great but both are also costly and inefficient ways of delivering most teaching and most musical experiences. Excellent points (and Tabarrok has additional good points that I haven’t quoted). We’re not all
3 0.7026065 579 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-18-What is this, a statistics class or a dentist’s office??
Introduction: Val has reported success with the following trick: Get to the classroom a few minutes earlier and turn on soft music. Then set everything up and, the moment it’s time for class to begin, put a clicker question on the screen and turn off the music. The students quiet down and get to work right away. I’ve never liked the usual struggle with students to get them to settle down in class, as it seemed to set up a dynamic in which I was trying to get the students to focus and they were trying to goof off. Turning off the music seems like a great non-confrontational way to send the signal that class is starting.
4 0.69915313 325 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Fitting discrete-data regression models in social science
Introduction: My lecture for Greg’s class today (taken from chapters 5-6 of ARM). Also, after class we talked a bit more about formal modeling. If I have time I’ll post some of that discussion here.
5 0.67764258 2104 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-17-Big bad education bureaucracy does big bad things
Introduction: In response to some big new push for testing schoolchildren, Mark Palko writes : The announcement of a new curriculum is invariably followed by a round of hearty round of self congratulations and talk of “keeping standards high” as if adding a slide to a PowerPoint automatically made students better informed. It doesn’t work that way. Adding a topic to the list simply means that students will be exposed to it, not that they will understand or master or retain it. Well put. In my own teaching, I often am tempted to believe that just putting a topic in a homework problem is enough to ensure that students will learn it. But it doesn’t work that way. Even if they manage to somehow struggle through and solve the problem (and many don’t, or they rely on their friends’ solutions), they won’t learn much if they don’t see the connection with everything else they know. I’m reminded of the time, several years ago, that I learned that photocopying an article and filing it was not the
6 0.66869265 515 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-13-The Road to a B
7 0.66536063 73 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-Observational Epidemiology
8 0.63485128 1071 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-19-“NYU Professor Claims He Was Fired for Giving James Franco a D”
9 0.62275094 2122 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-03-Objects of the class “Lawrence Summers”: Arne Duncan edition
10 0.61498815 1582 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-18-How to teach methods we don’t like?
11 0.6127789 402 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-Kaggle: forecasting competitions in the classroom
12 0.60361779 1173 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-17-Sports examples in class
13 0.59876549 2216 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-18-Florida backlash
14 0.59771603 1890 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-09-Frontiers of Science update
15 0.5970521 1068 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-18-Faculty who don’t like teaching and hate working with students
16 0.59624684 1611 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-07-Feedback on my Bayesian Data Analysis class at Columbia
18 0.58632195 1002 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-10-“Venetia Orcutt, GWU med school professor, quits after complaints of no-show class”
19 0.5815531 1224 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-21-Teaching velocity and acceleration
20 0.57656556 1517 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-01-“On Inspiring Students and Being Human”
topicId topicWeight
[(16, 0.044), (19, 0.029), (21, 0.074), (24, 0.118), (41, 0.04), (63, 0.151), (80, 0.035), (85, 0.035), (86, 0.023), (99, 0.293)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.97049928 2103 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-16-Objects of the class “Objects of the class”
Introduction: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” : parodies that are more famous than the original. (“It would be as if everybody were familiar with Duchamp’s Mona-Lisa-with-a-moustache while never having heard of Leonardo’s version.”) Objects of the class “Whoopi Goldberg” : actors who are undeniably talented but are almost always in bad movies, or at least movies that aren’t worthy of their talent. (The opposite: William Holden.) Objects of the class “Weekend at Bernie’s” : low-quality movie, nobody’s actually seen it, but everybody knows what it’s about. (Other examples: Heathers and Zelig.) I love these. We need some more.
2 0.96189189 1480 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-02-“If our product is harmful . . . we’ll stop making it.”
Introduction: After our discussion of the sad case of Darrell Huff, the celebrated “How to Lie with Statistics” guy who had a lucrative side career disparaging the link between smoking and cancer, I was motivated to follow John Mashey’s recommendation and read the book, Golden Holocaust: Origins of the Cigarette Catastrophe and the Case for Abolition, by historian Robert Proctor. My first stop upon receiving the book was the index, in particular the entry for Rubin, Donald B. I followed the reference to pages 440-442 and found the description of Don’s activities to be accurate, neither diminished nor overstated, to the best of my knowledge. Rubin is the second-most-famous statistician to have been paid by the cigarette industry, but several other big and small names have been on the payroll at one time or another. Here’s a partial list . Just including the people I know or have heard of: Herbert Solomon, Stanford Richard Tweedie, Bond U Arnold Zellner, U of Chicago Paul Switzer, S
3 0.96074855 782 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-29-Putting together multinomial discrete regressions by combining simple logits
Introduction: When predicting 0/1 data we can use logit (or probit or robit or some other robust model such as invlogit (0.01 + 0.98*X*beta)). Logit is simple enough and we can use bayesglm to regularize and avoid the problem of separation. What if there are more than 2 categories? If they’re ordered (1, 2, 3, etc), we can do ordered logit (and use bayespolr() to avoid separation). If the categories are unordered (vanilla, chocolate, strawberry), there are unordered multinomial logit and probit models out there. But it’s not so easy to fit these multinomial model in a multilevel setting (with coefficients that vary by group), especially if the computation is embedded in an iterative routine such as mi where you have real time constraints at each step. So this got me wondering whether we could kluge it with logits. Here’s the basic idea (in the ordered and unordered forms): - If you have a variable that goes 1, 2, 3, etc., set up a series of logits: 1 vs. 2,3,…; 2 vs. 3,…; and so forth
4 0.95896566 1621 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-13-Puzzles of criminal justice
Introduction: Four recent news stories about crime and punishment made me realize, yet again, how little I understand all this. 1. “HSBC to Pay $1.92 Billion to Settle Charges of Money Laundering” : State and federal authorities decided against indicting HSBC in a money-laundering case over concerns that criminal charges could jeopardize one of the world’s largest banks and ultimately destabilize the global financial system. Instead, HSBC announced on Tuesday that it had agreed to a record $1.92 billion settlement with authorities. . . . I don’t understand this idea of punishing the institution. I have the same problem when the NCAA punishes a college football program. These are individual people breaking the law (or the rules), right? So why not punish them directly? Giving 40 lashes to a bunch of HSBC executives and garnisheeing their salaries for life, say, that wouldn’t destabilize the global financial system would it? From the article: “A money-laundering indictment, or a guilt
5 0.9556253 1484 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-05-Two exciting movie ideas: “Second Chance U” and “The New Dirty Dozen”
Introduction: I have a great idea for a movie. Actually two movies based on two variants of a similar idea. It all started when I saw this story: Dr. Anil Potti, the controversial cancer researcher whose work at Duke University led to lawsuits from patients, is now a medical oncologist at the Cancer Center of North Dakota in Grand Forks. When asked about Dr. Potti’s controversial appointment, his new boss said : If a guy can’t get a second chance here in North Dakota, where he trained, man, you can’t get a second chance anywhere. (Link from Retraction Watch , of course.) Potti’s boss is also quoted as saying, “Most, if not all, his patients have loved him.” On the other hand, the news article reports: “The North Carolina medical board’s website lists settlements against Potti of at least $75,000.” I guess there’s no reason you can’t love a guy and still want a juicy malpractice settlement. Second Chance U I don’t give two poops about Dr. Anil Potti. But seeing the above s
6 0.95535982 313 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-A question for psychometricians
7 0.94388247 1078 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-22-Tables as graphs: The Ramanujan principle
8 0.94264817 286 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-20-Are the Democrats avoiding a national campaign?
9 0.94235098 102 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-21-Why modern art is all in the mind
11 0.94022232 293 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Lowess is great
12 0.93512452 544 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-29-Splitting the data
13 0.92920685 1201 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-07-Inference = data + model
14 0.92841935 1690 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-23-When are complicated models helpful in psychology research and when are they overkill?
15 0.92667997 421 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-19-Just chaid
16 0.92606056 1506 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-21-Building a regression model . . . with only 27 data points
17 0.91345263 291 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Philosophy of Bayes and non-Bayes: A dialogue with Deborah Mayo
18 0.91179758 428 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-24-Flawed visualization of U.S. voting maybe has some good features
19 0.91068548 745 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-04-High-level intellectual discussions in the Columbia statistics department
20 0.91028535 628 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-25-100-year floods