andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1798 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Mike Spagat sends along a serious presentation with an ironic title: 18.7 MILLION ANNIHILATED SAYS LEADING EXPERT IN PEER–REVIEWED JOURNAL: AN APPROVED, AUTHORITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION MADE BY AN EXPERT He’ll be speaking on it at tomorrow’s meeting of the Catastrophes and Conflict Forum of the Royal Society of Medicine in London. All I can say is, it’s a long time since I’ve seen a slide presentation in portrait form. It brings me back to the days of transparency sheets.
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Mike Spagat sends along a serious presentation with an ironic title: 18. [sent-1, score-0.906]
2 7 MILLION ANNIHILATED SAYS LEADING EXPERT IN PEER–REVIEWED JOURNAL: AN APPROVED, AUTHORITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION MADE BY AN EXPERT He’ll be speaking on it at tomorrow’s meeting of the Catastrophes and Conflict Forum of the Royal Society of Medicine in London. [sent-2, score-0.271]
3 All I can say is, it’s a long time since I’ve seen a slide presentation in portrait form. [sent-3, score-1.137]
4 It brings me back to the days of transparency sheets. [sent-4, score-0.507]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('presentation', 0.389), ('catastrophes', 0.246), ('expert', 0.233), ('portrait', 0.232), ('ironic', 0.214), ('authoritative', 0.214), ('spagat', 0.202), ('slide', 0.198), ('sheets', 0.194), ('approved', 0.19), ('transparency', 0.181), ('royal', 0.178), ('tomorrow', 0.17), ('brings', 0.154), ('reviewed', 0.153), ('forum', 0.153), ('meeting', 0.15), ('conflict', 0.15), ('mike', 0.145), ('peer', 0.14), ('medicine', 0.139), ('sends', 0.128), ('speaking', 0.121), ('society', 0.12), ('million', 0.119), ('leading', 0.114), ('title', 0.108), ('days', 0.107), ('serious', 0.094), ('says', 0.092), ('seen', 0.087), ('scientific', 0.082), ('along', 0.081), ('journal', 0.079), ('long', 0.074), ('since', 0.07), ('back', 0.065), ('made', 0.063), ('ll', 0.056), ('say', 0.047), ('ve', 0.042), ('time', 0.04)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1798 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-11-Continuing conflict over conflict statistics
Introduction: Mike Spagat sends along a serious presentation with an ironic title: 18.7 MILLION ANNIHILATED SAYS LEADING EXPERT IN PEER–REVIEWED JOURNAL: AN APPROVED, AUTHORITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION MADE BY AN EXPERT He’ll be speaking on it at tomorrow’s meeting of the Catastrophes and Conflict Forum of the Royal Society of Medicine in London. All I can say is, it’s a long time since I’ve seen a slide presentation in portrait form. It brings me back to the days of transparency sheets.
Introduction: Mike Spagat points to this interview , which, he writes, covers themes that are discussed on the blog such as wrong ideas that don’t die, peer review and the statistics of conflict deaths. I agree. It’s good stuff. Here are some of the things that Spagat says (he’s being interviewed by Joel Wing): In fact, the standard excess-deaths concept leads to an interesting conundrum when combined with an interesting fact exposed in the next-to-latest Human Security Report ; in most countries child mortality rates decline during armed conflict (chapter 6). So if you believe the usual excess-death causality story then you’re forced to conclude that many conflicts actually save the lives of many children. Of course, the idea of wars savings lives is pretty hard to swallow. A much more sensible understanding is that there are a variety of factors that determine child deaths and that in many cases the factors that save the lives of children are stronger than the negative effects that confli
3 0.153451 869 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-24-Mister P in Stata
Introduction: Maurizio Pisati sends along this presentation of work with Valeria Glorioso. He writes: “Our major problem, now, is uncertainty estimation — we’re still struggling to find a solution appropriate to the Stata environment.”
Introduction: Mike Spagat sends in an interesting explanation for the noted problems with conflict mortality studies (a topic we’ve discussed on occasion on this blog). Spagat writes: This analysis is based on the fact that conflict violence does not spread out at all uniformly across a map but, rather, tends to concentrate in a few areas. This means that small, headline-grabbing violence surveys are extremely unreliable. There is a second point, based on the work of David Hemenway which you’ve also cited on your blog. Even within exceptionally violent environments most households will still not have a violent death. So a very small false positive rate in a household survey will cause substantial upward bias in violence estimates.
5 0.13270675 1613 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-09-Hey—here’s a photo of me making fun of a silly infographic (from last year)
Introduction: Here’s the story of the graph, which was “was shown as part of a training for FBI agents,” and here’s the more recent long form of my presentation.
6 0.13162163 172 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-30-Why don’t we have peer reviewing for oral presentations?
7 0.13091527 717 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-17-Statistics plagiarism scandal
8 0.11606243 884 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-01-My course this fall on Bayesian Computation
9 0.11285728 686 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-29-What are the open problems in Bayesian statistics??
10 0.11057521 141 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-Dispute over counts of child deaths in Iraq due to sanctions
11 0.096874885 703 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-10-Bringing Causal Models Into the Mainstream
12 0.090499453 648 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-04-The Case for More False Positives in Anti-doping Testing
13 0.090448916 2100 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-14-BDA class G+ hangout another try
14 0.090318836 1143 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-29-G+ > Skype
15 0.090145864 31 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-13-Visualization in 1939
16 0.089691721 1032 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Does Avastin work on breast cancer? Should Medicare be paying for it?
17 0.085249484 357 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Sas and R
18 0.084225342 1660 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-08-Bayesian, Permutable Symmetries
19 0.082193717 1931 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-09-“Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis”
20 0.080374889 975 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-27-Caffeine keeps your Mac awake
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.071), (1, -0.041), (2, -0.042), (3, -0.011), (4, 0.004), (5, -0.023), (6, -0.016), (7, -0.016), (8, -0.022), (9, -0.037), (10, 0.034), (11, -0.002), (12, 0.032), (13, 0.04), (14, -0.032), (15, -0.019), (16, -0.027), (17, 0.065), (18, 0.005), (19, -0.051), (20, -0.008), (21, 0.037), (22, -0.012), (23, -0.066), (24, -0.068), (25, 0.053), (26, -0.025), (27, -0.06), (28, 0.071), (29, -0.023), (30, -0.009), (31, 0.032), (32, -0.02), (33, -0.088), (34, -0.003), (35, -0.025), (36, 0.011), (37, -0.024), (38, 0.089), (39, 0.086), (40, -0.005), (41, -0.042), (42, 0.011), (43, 0.004), (44, -0.008), (45, -0.004), (46, -0.06), (47, -0.001), (48, 0.059), (49, -0.002)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.97265059 1798 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-11-Continuing conflict over conflict statistics
Introduction: Mike Spagat sends along a serious presentation with an ironic title: 18.7 MILLION ANNIHILATED SAYS LEADING EXPERT IN PEER–REVIEWED JOURNAL: AN APPROVED, AUTHORITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION MADE BY AN EXPERT He’ll be speaking on it at tomorrow’s meeting of the Catastrophes and Conflict Forum of the Royal Society of Medicine in London. All I can say is, it’s a long time since I’ve seen a slide presentation in portrait form. It brings me back to the days of transparency sheets.
2 0.7108584 1660 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-08-Bayesian, Permutable Symmetries
Introduction: Mike Betancourt sends along this paper . Could be interesting, no? Note the heavy tail on the CDF in Figure 3, exhibiting weakened median time since 1999. And, as you can see from the bibliography, the work draws on a variety of sources:
3 0.70456207 686 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-29-What are the open problems in Bayesian statistics??
Introduction: Follow the discussion (originated by Mike Jordan) at the Statistics Forum.
4 0.6423822 1931 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-09-“Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis”
Introduction: Mike Jordan sends along this National Academies report on “big data.” This is not a research report but it could be interesting in that it conveys what are believed to be important technical challenges.
5 0.61470187 717 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-17-Statistics plagiarism scandal
Introduction: See more at the Statistics Forum (of course).
6 0.61106277 703 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-10-Bringing Causal Models Into the Mainstream
7 0.598553 1045 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-07-Martyn Plummer’s Secret JAGS Blog
8 0.59438372 1106 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-08-Intro to splines—with cool graphs
9 0.59078676 1032 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Does Avastin work on breast cancer? Should Medicare be paying for it?
10 0.57588744 2101 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-15-BDA class 4 G+ hangout on air is on air
11 0.55916733 141 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-Dispute over counts of child deaths in Iraq due to sanctions
12 0.55415267 658 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-11-Statistics in high schools: Towards more accessible conceptions of statistical inference
13 0.55171889 1250 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-07-Hangman tips
14 0.51772153 290 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Data Thief
15 0.50777787 2068 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-18-G+ hangout for Bayesian Data Analysis course now! (actually, in 5 minutes)
16 0.50646305 1809 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-17-NUTS discussed on Xi’an’s Og
17 0.49939439 700 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-06-Suspicious pattern of too-strong replications of medical research
18 0.49338099 869 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-24-Mister P in Stata
19 0.48623925 2188 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-27-“Disappointed with your results? Boost your scientific paper”
20 0.48387617 531 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-22-Third-party Dream Ticket
topicId topicWeight
[(9, 0.019), (11, 0.026), (15, 0.083), (16, 0.067), (21, 0.014), (26, 0.031), (38, 0.024), (44, 0.306), (53, 0.05), (77, 0.034), (86, 0.035), (99, 0.18)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.93272412 1798 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-11-Continuing conflict over conflict statistics
Introduction: Mike Spagat sends along a serious presentation with an ironic title: 18.7 MILLION ANNIHILATED SAYS LEADING EXPERT IN PEER–REVIEWED JOURNAL: AN APPROVED, AUTHORITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION MADE BY AN EXPERT He’ll be speaking on it at tomorrow’s meeting of the Catastrophes and Conflict Forum of the Royal Society of Medicine in London. All I can say is, it’s a long time since I’ve seen a slide presentation in portrait form. It brings me back to the days of transparency sheets.
2 0.78097028 559 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-06-Bidding for the kickoff
Introduction: Steven Brams and James Jorash propose a system for reducing the advantage that comes from winning the coin flip in overtime: Dispensing with a coin toss, the teams would bid on where the ball is kicked from by the kicking team. In the NFL, it’s now the 30-yard line. Under Brams and Jorasch’s rule, the kicking team would be the team that bids the lower number, because it is willing to put itself at a disadvantage by kicking from farther back. However, it would not kick from the number it bids, but from the average of the two bids. To illustrate, assume team A bids to kick from the 38-yard line, while team B bids its 32-yard line. Team B would win the bidding and, therefore, be designated as the kick-off team. But B wouldn’t kick from 32, but instead from the average of 38 and 32–its 35-yard line. This is better for B by 3 yards than the 32-yard line that it proposed, because it’s closer to the end zone it is kicking towards. It’s also better for A by 3 yards to have B kick fr
3 0.76021677 864 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-21-Going viral — not!
Introduction: Sharad explains : HIV/AIDS, like many other contagious diseases, exemplifies the common view of so-called viral propagation, growing from a few initial cases to millions through close person-to-person interactions. (Ironically, not all viruses in fact exhibit “viral” transmission patterns. For example, Hepatitis A often spreads through contaminated drinking water.[1]) By analogy to such biological epidemics, the diffusion of products and ideas is conventionally assumed to occur “virally” as well, as evidenced by prevailing theoretical frameworks (e.g., the cascade and threshold models) and an obsession in the marketing world for all things social. . . . Despite hundreds of papers written about diffusion, there is surprisingly little work addressing this fundamental empirical question. In a recent study, Duncan Watts, Dan Goldstein, and I [Goel] examined the adoption patterns of several different types of products diffusing over various online platforms — including Twitter, Face
4 0.70627326 954 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-12-Benford’s Law suggests lots of financial fraud
Introduction: This post is by Phil. I love this post by Jialan Wang. Wang “downloaded quarterly accounting data for all firms in Compustat, the most widely-used dataset in corporate finance that contains data on over 20,000 firms from SEC filings” and looked at the statistical distribution of leading digits in various pieces of financial information. As expected, the distribution is very close to what is predicted by Benford’s Law . Very close, but not identical. But does that mean anything? Benford’s “Law” isn’t really a law, it’s more of a rule or principle: it’s certainly possible for the distribution of leading digits in financial data — even a massive corpus of it — to deviate from the rule without this indicating massive fraud or error. But, aha, Wang also looks at how the deviation from Benford’s Law has changed with time, and looks at it by industry, and this is where things get really interesting and suggestive. I really can’t summarize any better than Wang did, so click on the first
5 0.6961447 1837 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-03-NYC Data Skeptics Meetup
Introduction: Rachel Schutt writes: The hype surrounding Big Data and Data Science is at a fever pitch with promises to solve the world’s business and social problems, large and small. How accurate or misleading is this message? How is it helping or damaging people, and which people? What opportunities exist for data nerds and entrepreneurs that examine the larger issues with a skeptical view? This Meetup focuses on mathematical, ethical, and business aspects of data from a skeptical perspective. Guest speakers will discuss the misuse of and best practices with data, common mistakes people make with data and ways to avoid them, how to deal with intentional gaming and politics surrounding mathematical modeling, and taking into account the feedback loops and wider consequences of modeling. We will take deep dives into models in the fields of Data Science, statistics, financial engineering, and economics. This is an independent forum and open to anyone sharing an interest in the larger use of
6 0.69147867 444 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-02-Rational addiction
7 0.68935657 748 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-06-Why your Klout score is meaningless
8 0.67745626 1627 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-17-Stan and RStan 1.1.0
9 0.66691148 2209 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-13-CmdStan, RStan, PyStan v2.2.0
10 0.66410589 1436 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-A book on presenting numbers from spreadsheets
11 0.64448929 2150 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-27-(R-Py-Cmd)Stan 2.1.0
12 0.64130169 1145 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-30-A tax on inequality, or a tax to keep inequality at the current level?
13 0.64011109 111 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Tough love as a style of writing
14 0.63151705 617 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-17-“Why Preschool Shouldn’t Be Like School”?
15 0.58808106 1879 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-01-Benford’s law and addresses
16 0.58358508 693 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-04-Don’t any statisticians work for the IRS?
17 0.5791229 869 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-24-Mister P in Stata
18 0.56526822 865 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-22-Blogging is “destroying the business model for quality”?
19 0.56372815 2060 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-13-New issue of Symposium magazine
20 0.55947834 30 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-13-Trips to Cleveland