andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-866 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Thomas Wallsten writes: To viewers of Dr. Andrew Gelman’s blog, I [Wallsten] am pleased to invite you to participate in an important research project to develop improved methods for predicting future events and outcomes. More specifically, our goal is to develop methods for aggregating many individual judgments in a manner that yields more accurate predictions than any one person or small group alone could provide. Our research is funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA, iarpa.gov ), but its application will extend far beyond intelligence to such areas as business forecasting or medical diagnosis. Our team consists of researchers at ARA, a private company; as well as researchers at the University of Maryland-College Park, University of Michigan, Ohio State University, Fordham University, University of California-Irvine, Wake Forest University, and the University of Missouri. Details can be found at forecastingace.com/ . We are seeking to recruit ind
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1 Andrew Gelman’s blog, I [Wallsten] am pleased to invite you to participate in an important research project to develop improved methods for predicting future events and outcomes. [sent-2, score-0.463]
2 More specifically, our goal is to develop methods for aggregating many individual judgments in a manner that yields more accurate predictions than any one person or small group alone could provide. [sent-3, score-0.556]
3 Our research is funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA, iarpa. [sent-4, score-0.079]
4 gov ), but its application will extend far beyond intelligence to such areas as business forecasting or medical diagnosis. [sent-5, score-0.201]
5 Our team consists of researchers at ARA, a private company; as well as researchers at the University of Maryland-College Park, University of Michigan, Ohio State University, Fordham University, University of California-Irvine, Wake Forest University, and the University of Missouri. [sent-6, score-0.077]
6 We are seeking to recruit individuals who have interest (and/or expertise) in any of a wide range of current affairs, including but not limited to politics, economics, technology, military affairs, social trends, and science and technology. [sent-9, score-0.082]
7 Your overall time commitment will be slight, 10-15 minutes initially, but then no more than a few minutes at any one time, spread out over months or, if you are willing, even a few years. [sent-10, score-0.283]
8 Any notifications will be via email and all other interactions will take place anonymously via our website at your convenience and your own pace. [sent-12, score-0.497]
9 The research has been approved by each university’s and by ARA’s Institutional Review Boards. [sent-13, score-0.156]
10 The study asks you to provide your judgments on a variety of subjects. [sent-14, score-0.286]
11 New topics will appear regularly and you will be able to revise your judgments with new information until the event in question is resolved. [sent-16, score-0.579]
12 We will email you when new questions are available or an event has been resolved and feedback is available. [sent-17, score-0.472]
13 You can select the form of the feedback that you will receive. [sent-18, score-0.252]
14 You may wish to know only about the accuracy of your own judgments, or you may prefer to know, how well you did in comparison to all of our respondents, or on how well you did relative to groups you ask to be compared to – perhaps groups of your friends or colleagues. [sent-19, score-0.172]
15 Your privacy will be secured and your anonymity is guaranteed. [sent-20, score-0.174]
16 You will select the screen name that you use when interacting with the website. [sent-21, score-0.209]
17 We will collect no identifying information about you, other than your email address, which will be kept in a secure file separate from all other information and never associated with your responses. [sent-22, score-0.45]
18 I hope that this project intrigues you and that you will participate. [sent-23, score-0.228]
19 If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact me. [sent-26, score-0.082]
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Introduction: Thomas Wallsten writes: To viewers of Dr. Andrew Gelman’s blog, I [Wallsten] am pleased to invite you to participate in an important research project to develop improved methods for predicting future events and outcomes. More specifically, our goal is to develop methods for aggregating many individual judgments in a manner that yields more accurate predictions than any one person or small group alone could provide. Our research is funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA, iarpa.gov ), but its application will extend far beyond intelligence to such areas as business forecasting or medical diagnosis. Our team consists of researchers at ARA, a private company; as well as researchers at the University of Maryland-College Park, University of Michigan, Ohio State University, Fordham University, University of California-Irvine, Wake Forest University, and the University of Missouri. Details can be found at forecastingace.com/ . We are seeking to recruit ind
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Introduction: As someone who relies strongly on survey research, it’s good for me to be reminded that some surveys are useful, some are useless, but one thing they almost all have in common is . . . they waste the respondents’ time. I thought of this after receiving the following email, which I shall reproduce here. My own comments appear after. Recently, you received an email from a student asking for 10 minutes of your time to discuss your Ph.D. program (the body of the email appears below). We are emailing you today to debrief you on the actual purpose of that email, as it was part of a research study. We sincerely hope our study did not cause you any disruption and we apologize if you were at all inconvenienced. Our hope is that this letter will provide a sufficient explanation of the purpose and design of our study to alleviate any concerns you may have about your involvement. We want to thank you for your time and for reading further if you are interested in understanding why you rece
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Introduction: I never read email before 4. That doesn’t mean I never send email before 4.
Introduction: Speakers: Cyrus Samii, PhD candidate, Department of Political Science, Columbia University: “Peacebuilding Policies as Quasi-Experiments: Some Examples” Macartan Humphreys, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Columbia University: “Sampling in developing countries: Five challenges from the field” Friday 22 Oct, 3-5pm in the Playroom (707 International Affairs Building). Open to all.
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Introduction: This came in the email: Postdoctoral Researcher (3 years) in State-Space Modeling of Animal Movement and Population Dynamics in Universities of Turku and Helsinki, Finland We seek for a statistician/mathematician with experience in ecological modeling or an ecologist with strong quantitative training to join an interdisciplinary research team focusing on dispersal and dynamics of the Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans). The Postdoctoral Researcher will develop modeling approaches (from individual based models to population level models) to assess the dispersal and population dynamics of the flying squirrel. A key challenge will be the integration of different kinds of data (census data, telemetry data, mark-recapture data, life-history data, and data on environmental covariates such as forest structure) into the modeling framework using Bayesian State-Space models or other such approaches. The project will be supervised by Dr. Vesa Selonen (a flying squirrel specialist;
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14 0.090801723 1872 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-More spam!
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Introduction: Thomas Wallsten writes: To viewers of Dr. Andrew Gelman’s blog, I [Wallsten] am pleased to invite you to participate in an important research project to develop improved methods for predicting future events and outcomes. More specifically, our goal is to develop methods for aggregating many individual judgments in a manner that yields more accurate predictions than any one person or small group alone could provide. Our research is funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA, iarpa.gov ), but its application will extend far beyond intelligence to such areas as business forecasting or medical diagnosis. Our team consists of researchers at ARA, a private company; as well as researchers at the University of Maryland-College Park, University of Michigan, Ohio State University, Fordham University, University of California-Irvine, Wake Forest University, and the University of Missouri. Details can be found at forecastingace.com/ . We are seeking to recruit ind
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Introduction: I received the following unsolicited email, subject line Technology and Engineering Research: Dear Editor We have done research in some of the cutting edge technology and engineering field and would like to if you will be able to write about it in your news section. Our Primarily research focus on building high performance systems that are helping in social networks, web, finding disease, cancer and sports using BIG DATA . Hope to hear from you some time soon. Thanks, ***, PhD Chartered Scientist IBM Corportation ***@us.ibm.com 916 *** **** I thought IBM was a professional operation—don’t they have their own public relations department?
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Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email: Hello, *** LLC, a ***-based market research company, has a financial client who is interested in speaking with a statistician who has done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease and preferably familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials. We offer an honorarium of $200 for a 30 minute telephone interview. Please advise us if you have an employment or consulting agreement with any organization or operate professionally pursuant to an organization’s code of conduct or employee manual that may control activities by you outside of your regular present and former employment, such as participating in this consulting project for MedPanel. If there are such contracts or other documents that do apply to you, please forward MedPanel a copy of each such document asap as we are obligated to review such documents to determine if you are permitted to participate as a consultant for MedPanel on a project with this particular client. If you are
4 0.81968272 18 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?
Introduction: As someone who relies strongly on survey research, it’s good for me to be reminded that some surveys are useful, some are useless, but one thing they almost all have in common is . . . they waste the respondents’ time. I thought of this after receiving the following email, which I shall reproduce here. My own comments appear after. Recently, you received an email from a student asking for 10 minutes of your time to discuss your Ph.D. program (the body of the email appears below). We are emailing you today to debrief you on the actual purpose of that email, as it was part of a research study. We sincerely hope our study did not cause you any disruption and we apologize if you were at all inconvenienced. Our hope is that this letter will provide a sufficient explanation of the purpose and design of our study to alleviate any concerns you may have about your involvement. We want to thank you for your time and for reading further if you are interested in understanding why you rece
Introduction: One thing we do here at the Applied Statistics Center is hold mini-conferences. The next one looks really cool. It’s organized by Sharad Goel and Jake Hofman (Microsoft Research, formerly at Yahoo Research), David Park (Columbia University), and Sergei Vassilvitskii (Google). As with our other conferences, one of our goals is to mix the academic and nonacademic research communities. Here’s the website for the workshop, and here’s the announcement from the organizers: With an explosion of data on every aspect of our everyday existence — from what we buy, to where we travel, to who we know — we are able to observe human behavior with granularity largely thought impossible just a decade ago. The growth of such online activity has further facilitated the design of web-based experiments, enhancing both the scale and efficiency of traditional methods. Together these advances have created an unprecedented opportunity to address longstanding questions in the social sciences, rang
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Introduction: Patrick Caldon writes: I saw your recent blog post where you discussed in passing an iterative-chain-of models approach to AI. I essentially built such a thing for my PhD thesis – not in a Bayesian context, but in a logic programming context – and proved it had a few properties and showed how you could solve some toy problems. The important bit of my framework was that at various points you also go and get more data in the process – in a statistical context this might be seen as building a little univariate model on a subset of the data, then iteratively extending into a better model with more data and more independent variables – a generalized forward stepwise regression if you like. It wrapped a proper computational framework around E.M. Gold’s identification/learning in the limit based on a logic my advisor (Eric Martin) had invented. What’s not written up in the thesis is a few months of failed struggle trying to shoehorn some simple statistical inference into this
Introduction: The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society publishes papers followed by discussions. Lots of discussions, each can be no more than 400 words. Here’s my most recent discussion: The authors are working on an important applied problem and I have no reason to doubt that their approach is a step forward beyond diagnostic criteria based on point estimation. An attempt at an accurate assessment of variation is important not just for statistical reasons but also because scientists have the duty to convey their uncertainty to the larger world. I am thinking, for example, of discredited claims such as that of the mathematician who claimed to predict divorces with 93% accuracy (Abraham, 2010). Regarding the paper at hand, I thought I would try an experiment in comment-writing. My usual practice is to read the graphs and then go back and clarify any questions through the text. So, very quickly: I would prefer Figure 1 to be displayed in terms of standard deviations, not variances. I
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Introduction: I just happened to notice this from last year. Eric Loken writes : Steven Pinker reviewed Malcolm Gladwell’s latest book and criticized him rather harshly for several shortcomings. Gladwell appears to have made things worse for himself in a letter to the editor of the NYT by defending a manifestly weak claim from one of his essays – the claim that NFL quarterback performance is unrelated to the order they were drafted out of college. The reason w [Loken and his colleagues] are implicated is that Pinker identified an earlier blog post of ours as one of three sources he used to challenge Gladwell (yay us!). But Gladwell either misrepresented or misunderstood our post in his response, and admonishes Pinker by saying “we should agree that our differences owe less to what can be found in the scientific literature than they do to what can be found on Google.” Well, here’s what you can find on Google. Follow this link to request the data for NFL quarterbacks drafted between 1980 and
Introduction: I was given the opportunity to briefly comment on the paper , A Bayesian approach to complex clinical diagnoses: a case-study in child abuse, by Nicky Best, Deborah Ashby, Frank Dunstan, David Foreman, and Neil McIntosh, for the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Here is what I wrote: Best et al. are working on an important applied problem and I have no reason to doubt that their approach is a step forward beyond diagnostic criteria based on point estimation. An attempt at an accurate assessment of variation is important not just for statistical reasons but also because scientists have the duty to convey their uncertainty to the larger world. I am thinking, for example, of discredited claims such as that of the mathematician who claimed to predict divorces with 93% accuracy (Abraham, 2010). Regarding the paper at hand, I thought I would try an experiment in comment-writing. My usual practice is to read the graphs and then go back and clarify any questions through the t
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Introduction: I received an email with the above title from Daniel Adkins, who elaborates: I [Adkins] am having a tough time with a dataset including 40K obs and 8K subjects. Trying to estimate a 2 level logit with random intercept and age slope and about 13 fixed covariates. I have tried several R packages (lme4, lme4a, glmmPQL, MCMCglmm) and stata xtmelogit and gllamm to no avail. xtmelogit crashes from insufficient memory. The R packages yield false convergences. A simpler model w/ random intercept only gives stable estimates in lme4 with a very large number of quadrature point (nAGQ>220). When i try this (nAGQ=221) with the random age term, it doesn’t make it through a single iteration in 72 hours (have tried both w/ and w/out RE correlation). I am using a power desktop that is top of the line compared to anything other than a cluster. Have tried start values for fixed effects in lme4 and that doesn’t help (couldn’t figure out how to specify RE starts). Do you have any advice. Should I move t
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