andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2203 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Sometimes I have a few minutes where I can work, but I don’t feel like working. So I follow the blogroll, this time from here to here : Sabino Kornrich, Julie Brines, Katrina Leupp. Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage American Sociological Review February 2013 vol. 78 no. 1 26-50 doi: 10.1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave II of the National Survey of Families and Households published in 1996, interviews from 1992-1994. The division of labor: Core tasks include preparing meals, washing dishes, cleaning house, shopping, and washing and ironing; non-core tasks include outdoor work, paying bills, auto maintenance, and driving. As you can see in the graph, the more of the “core” tasks a man completes, the less sex he gets. The covariates for overall marital happiness and specific happiness with spouses’ contribution to housework did not change this relationship. The covariate for gender-traditional ideology on household labor likewise
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1 1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave II of the National Survey of Families and Households published in 1996, interviews from 1992-1994. [sent-6, score-0.083]
2 The division of labor: Core tasks include preparing meals, washing dishes, cleaning house, shopping, and washing and ironing; non-core tasks include outdoor work, paying bills, auto maintenance, and driving. [sent-7, score-1.614]
3 As you can see in the graph, the more of the “core” tasks a man completes, the less sex he gets. [sent-8, score-0.689]
4 The covariates for overall marital happiness and specific happiness with spouses’ contribution to housework did not change this relationship. [sent-9, score-0.942]
5 The covariate for gender-traditional ideology on household labor likewise did not change this relationship. [sent-10, score-0.517]
6 Thus, none of these factors explains the relationship between sex frequency and the participation of the man in “core” chores. [sent-11, score-0.558]
7 As a commenter pointed out, if he’s getting less sex, so is she. [sent-12, score-0.097]
8 (I think the above graph is in units of orgasms per year. [sent-13, score-0.212]
9 ) So maybe the title should be, “If your husband does more housework you get less sex. [sent-14, score-0.578]
10 ” As a statistician, of course I’m most amused by the above graph with those amazingly straight lines. [sent-15, score-0.301]
11 I can’t laugh too much, though, as I’ve been guilty of similar abominations myself (see figure 3 in this paper , for example). [sent-16, score-0.313]
12 As the saying goes, what’s the point of living in a glass house if you can’t throw stones? [sent-18, score-0.224]
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same-blog 1 1.0 2203 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-08-“Guys who do more housework get less sex”
Introduction: Sometimes I have a few minutes where I can work, but I don’t feel like working. So I follow the blogroll, this time from here to here : Sabino Kornrich, Julie Brines, Katrina Leupp. Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage American Sociological Review February 2013 vol. 78 no. 1 26-50 doi: 10.1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave II of the National Survey of Families and Households published in 1996, interviews from 1992-1994. The division of labor: Core tasks include preparing meals, washing dishes, cleaning house, shopping, and washing and ironing; non-core tasks include outdoor work, paying bills, auto maintenance, and driving. As you can see in the graph, the more of the “core” tasks a man completes, the less sex he gets. The covariates for overall marital happiness and specific happiness with spouses’ contribution to housework did not change this relationship. The covariate for gender-traditional ideology on household labor likewise
2 0.1469391 1068 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-18-Faculty who don’t like teaching and hate working with students
Introduction: Peter Woit links to Steve Hsu linking to a 1977 interview by Katherine Sopka of physics professor Sidney Coleman. I don’t know anything about Coleman’s research but the interview caught my eye because one of my roommates in grad school was one of Coleman’s advisees. Anyway, here’s the key bit from the interview: Sopka: But you do enjoy working with students or do you? Coleman: No. I hate it. You do it as part of the job. Well, that’s of course false…or maybe more true than false when I say I hate it. Occasionally there’s a student who is a joy to work with. But I certainly would be just as happy if I had no graduate students… Sopka: I guess your remark means then that you would like to avoid teaching undergraduate courses or even required graduate courses… Coleman: Or even special topics courses. Teaching is unpleasant work. No question about it. It has its rewards. One feels happy about having a job well done. Washing the dishes, waxing the floors (things I also
Introduction: Kaiser Fung discusses the following graph that is captioned, “A study of 54 nations–ranked below–found that those with more progressive tax rates had happier citizens, on average.” As Kaiser writes, “from a purely graphical perspective, the chart is well executed . . . they have 54 points, and the chart still doesn’t look too crammed . . .” But he also points out that the graph’s implicit claims (that tax rates can explain happiness or cause more happiness) are not supported. Kaiser and I are not being picky-picky-picky here. Taken literally, the graph title says nothing about causation, but I think the phrasing implies it. Also, from a purely descriptive perspective, the graph is somewhat at war with its caption. The caption announces a relationship, but in the graph, the x and y variables have only a very weak correlation. The caption says that happiness and progressive tax rates go together, but the graph uses the U.S. as a baseline, and when you move from the U.S
4 0.11588092 486 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-26-Age and happiness: The pattern isn’t as clear as you might think
Introduction: A couple people pointed me to this recent news article which discusses “why, beyond middle age, people get happier as they get older.” Here’s the story: When people start out on adult life, they are, on average, pretty cheerful. Things go downhill from youth to middle age until they reach a nadir commonly known as the mid-life crisis. So far, so familiar. The surprising part happens after that. Although as people move towards old age they lose things they treasure–vitality, mental sharpness and looks–they also gain what people spend their lives pursuing: happiness. This curious finding has emerged from a new branch of economics that seeks a more satisfactory measure than money of human well-being. Conventional economics uses money as a proxy for utility–the dismal way in which the discipline talks about happiness. But some economists, unconvinced that there is a direct relationship between money and well-being, have decided to go to the nub of the matter and measure happiness i
5 0.10004216 1360 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-02-Helpful on happiness
Introduction: Following on our recent discussion of contradictory findings on happiness, David Austin writes: A pellucid discussion of happiness and happiness research is Fred Feldman, What is This Thing Called Happiness? (Oxford University Press, 2010). And here’s Feldman’s summary of his book.
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same-blog 1 0.95517504 2203 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-08-“Guys who do more housework get less sex”
Introduction: Sometimes I have a few minutes where I can work, but I don’t feel like working. So I follow the blogroll, this time from here to here : Sabino Kornrich, Julie Brines, Katrina Leupp. Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage American Sociological Review February 2013 vol. 78 no. 1 26-50 doi: 10.1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave II of the National Survey of Families and Households published in 1996, interviews from 1992-1994. The division of labor: Core tasks include preparing meals, washing dishes, cleaning house, shopping, and washing and ironing; non-core tasks include outdoor work, paying bills, auto maintenance, and driving. As you can see in the graph, the more of the “core” tasks a man completes, the less sex he gets. The covariates for overall marital happiness and specific happiness with spouses’ contribution to housework did not change this relationship. The covariate for gender-traditional ideology on household labor likewise
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Introduction: A couple people pointed me to this recent news article which discusses “why, beyond middle age, people get happier as they get older.” Here’s the story: When people start out on adult life, they are, on average, pretty cheerful. Things go downhill from youth to middle age until they reach a nadir commonly known as the mid-life crisis. So far, so familiar. The surprising part happens after that. Although as people move towards old age they lose things they treasure–vitality, mental sharpness and looks–they also gain what people spend their lives pursuing: happiness. This curious finding has emerged from a new branch of economics that seeks a more satisfactory measure than money of human well-being. Conventional economics uses money as a proxy for utility–the dismal way in which the discipline talks about happiness. But some economists, unconvinced that there is a direct relationship between money and well-being, have decided to go to the nub of the matter and measure happiness i
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Introduction: From Chris Mulligan: The data come from the Center for Disease Control and cover the years 1969-1988. Chris also gives instructions for how to download the data and plot them in R from scratch (in 30 lines of R code)! And now, the background A few months ago I heard about a study reporting that, during a recent eleven-year period, more babies were born on Valentine’s Day and fewer on Halloween compared to neighboring days: I wrote , What I’d really like to see is a graph with all 366 days of the year. It would be easy enough to make. That way we could put the Valentine’s and Halloween data in the context of other possible patterns. While they’re at it, they could also graph births by day of the week and show Thanksgiving, Easter, and other holidays that don’t have fixed dates. It’s so frustrating when people only show part of the story. I was pointed to some tables: and a graph from Matt Stiles: The heatmap is cute but I wanted to se
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Introduction: For awhile I’ve been curious (see also here ) about the U-shaped relation between happiness and age (with people least happy, on average, in their forties, and happier before and after). But when I tried to demonstrate it to me intro statistics course, using the General Social Survey, I couldn’t find the famed U, or anything like it. Using pooled GSS data mixes age, period, and cohort, so I tried throwing in some cohort effects (indicators for decades) and a couple other variables, but still couldn’t find that U. So I was intrigued when I came across this paper by Paul Frijters and Tony Beatton , who write: Whilst the majority of psychologists have concluded there is not much of a relationship at all, the economic literature has unearthed a possible U-shape relationship. In this paper we [Frijters and Beatton] replicate the U-shape for the German SocioEconomic Panel (GSOEP), and we investigate several possible explanations for it. They write: What is the relationship
Introduction: Kaiser Fung discusses the following graph that is captioned, “A study of 54 nations–ranked below–found that those with more progressive tax rates had happier citizens, on average.” As Kaiser writes, “from a purely graphical perspective, the chart is well executed . . . they have 54 points, and the chart still doesn’t look too crammed . . .” But he also points out that the graph’s implicit claims (that tax rates can explain happiness or cause more happiness) are not supported. Kaiser and I are not being picky-picky-picky here. Taken literally, the graph title says nothing about causation, but I think the phrasing implies it. Also, from a purely descriptive perspective, the graph is somewhat at war with its caption. The caption announces a relationship, but in the graph, the x and y variables have only a very weak correlation. The caption says that happiness and progressive tax rates go together, but the graph uses the U.S. as a baseline, and when you move from the U.S
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same-blog 1 0.92942744 2203 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-08-“Guys who do more housework get less sex”
Introduction: Sometimes I have a few minutes where I can work, but I don’t feel like working. So I follow the blogroll, this time from here to here : Sabino Kornrich, Julie Brines, Katrina Leupp. Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage American Sociological Review February 2013 vol. 78 no. 1 26-50 doi: 10.1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave II of the National Survey of Families and Households published in 1996, interviews from 1992-1994. The division of labor: Core tasks include preparing meals, washing dishes, cleaning house, shopping, and washing and ironing; non-core tasks include outdoor work, paying bills, auto maintenance, and driving. As you can see in the graph, the more of the “core” tasks a man completes, the less sex he gets. The covariates for overall marital happiness and specific happiness with spouses’ contribution to housework did not change this relationship. The covariate for gender-traditional ideology on household labor likewise
2 0.84332883 1734 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-23-Life in the C-suite: A graph that is both ugly and bad, and an unrelated story
Introduction: Jemes Keirstead sends along this infographic : He hates it: First we’ve got an hourglass metaphor wrecked by the fact that “now” (i.e. the pinch point in the glass) is actually 3-5 years in the future and the past sand includes “up to three years” in the future. Then there are the percentages which are appear to represent a vertical distance, not volume of sand or width of the hourglass. Add to that a strange color scheme in which green goes from dark to light to dark again. I know January’s not even finished yet, but surely a competitor for worst infographic of 2013? Keirstead doesn’t even comment on what I see as the worst aspect of the graph, which is that the “3-5 years” band is the narrowest on the graph, but expressed as a per-year rate it is actually the highest of all the percentages. The hourglass visualization does the astounding feat of taking the period where the executives expect the highest rate of change and presenting it as a minimum in the graph.
3 0.82208395 1911 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-23-AI Stats conference on Stan etc.
Introduction: Jaakko Peltonen writes: The Seventeenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (http://www.aistats.org) will be next April in Reykjavik, Iceland. AISTATS is an interdisciplinary conference at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, and related areas. ============================================================================== AISTATS 2014 Call for Papers Seventeenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics April 22 – 25, 2014, Reykjavik, Iceland http://www.aistats.org Colocated with a MLSS Machine Learning Summer School ============================================================================== AISTATS is an interdisciplinary gathering of researchers at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, and related areas. Since its inception in 1985, the primary goal of AISTATS has been to broaden research in the
Introduction: Solomon Hsiang shares some bad news: Persistently reduced labor productivity may be one of the largest economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change. . . . Two percent per degree Celsius . . . That’s the magic number for how worker productivity responds to warm/hot temperatures. In my 2010 PNAS paper , I [Hsiang] found that labor-intensive sectors of national economies decreased output by roughly 2.4% per degree C and argued that this looked suspiously like it came from reductions in worker output. Using a totally different method and dataset, Matt Neidell and Josh Graff Zivin found that labor supply in micro data fell by 1.8% per degree C. Both responses kicked in at around 26C. Chris Sheehan just sent me this NYT article on air conditioning , where they mention this neat natural experiment: [I]n the past year, [Japan] became an unwitting laboratory to study even more extreme air-conditioning abstinence, and the results have not been encouraging. After th
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Introduction: Hibbs, one of the original economy-and-elections guys, writes : The number of House seats won by the presidents party at midterm elections is well explained by three pre-determined or exogenous variables: (1) the number of House seats won by the in-party at the previous on-year election, (2) the vote margin of the in-partys candidate at the previous presidential election, and (3) the average growth rate of per capita real disposable personal income during the congressional term. Given the partisan division of House seats following the 2008 on-year election, President Obamas margin of victory in 2008, and the weak growth of per capita real income during the rst 6 quarters of the 111th Congress, the Democrats chances of holding on to a House majority by winning at least 218 seats at the 2010 midterm election will depend on real income growth in the 3rd quarter of 2010. The data available at this writing indicate the that Democrats will win 211 seats, a loss of 45 from the 2008 o
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