andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-595 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: This video caught my interest – news video clip (from this post2 ) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2011/02/on_summarizing.html The news commentator did seem to be trying to point out what a couple of states had to say about the claimed relationship – almost on their own. Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this! So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it. PoliticInt.pdf North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve. Missisipi and New York are the bolded blue. As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror). K? p.s. you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i.e. see chapter 4 of Gelman and Hill book)
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3 Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this! [sent-6, score-0.264]
4 So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it. [sent-7, score-0.805]
5 pdf North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve. [sent-9, score-1.457]
6 As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror). [sent-11, score-0.478]
7 you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i. [sent-15, score-0.593]
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Introduction: This video caught my interest – news video clip (from this post2 ) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2011/02/on_summarizing.html The news commentator did seem to be trying to point out what a couple of states had to say about the claimed relationship – almost on their own. Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this! So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it. PoliticInt.pdf North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve. Missisipi and New York are the bolded blue. As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror). K? p.s. you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i.e. see chapter 4 of Gelman and Hill book)
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Introduction: Here and here , for example. I just hope they’re using our survey methods and aren’t trying to contact the zombies face-to-face!
4 0.087441206 148 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-15-“Gender Bias Still Exists in Modern Children’s Literature, Say Centre Researchers”
Introduction: You know that expression, “Not from the Onion”? How did we say that, all those years before the Onion existed? I was thinking about this after encountering (amidst a Google search for something else) this article on a website called “College News”: DANVILLE, KY., March 8, 2007–Two Centre College professors spent the past six years reading and analyzing 200 children’s books to discover a disturbing trend: gender bias still exists in much of modern children’s literature. Dr. David Anderson, professor of economics, and Dr. Mykol Hamilton, professor of psychology, have documented that gender bias is common today in many children’s books in their research published recently in Sex Roles: A Journal of Research titled “Gender Stereotyping and Under-Representation of Female Characters in 200 Popular Children’s Picture Books: A 21st Century Update.” . . . “Centre College,” huh? That’s where Area Man is studying, right? According to the materials on its website, Centre College is
5 0.072529212 857 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-17-Bayes pays
Introduction: George Leckie writes: The Centre for Multilevel Modelling at the University of Bristol is seeking to appoint an applied statistician to work on a new ESRC-funded project, Longitudinal Effects, Multilevel Modelling and Applications (LEMMA 3). LEMMA 3 is one of six Nodes of the National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM). The LEMMA 3 Node will focus on methods for the analysis of longitudinal data. The appointment, at Research Assistant or Research Associate level, will be for 2.5 years with likelihood of extension to the end of September 2014. For further details, including information on how to apply online, please go to http://www.bris.ac.uk/boris/jobs/feeds/ads?ID=100571 By “modelling,” I think he means “modeling.” And by “centre,” I think he means “center.” But I think you get the basic idea. It looks like a great place to do research.
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Introduction: This video caught my interest – news video clip (from this post2 ) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2011/02/on_summarizing.html The news commentator did seem to be trying to point out what a couple of states had to say about the claimed relationship – almost on their own. Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this! So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it. PoliticInt.pdf North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve. Missisipi and New York are the bolded blue. As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror). K? p.s. you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i.e. see chapter 4 of Gelman and Hill book)
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Introduction: That cute picture is of toddler FDR in a dress, from 1884. Jeanne Maglaty writes : A Ladies’ Home Journal article [or maybe from a different source, according to a commenter] in June 1918 said, “The generally accepted rule is pink for the boys, and blue for the girls. The reason is that pink, being a more decided and stronger color, is more suitable for the boy, while blue, which is more delicate and dainty, is prettier for the girl.” Other sources said blue was flattering for blonds, pink for brunettes; or blue was for blue-eyed babies, pink for brown-eyed babies, according to Paoletti. In 1927, Time magazine printed a chart showing sex-appropriate colors for girls and boys according to leading U.S. stores. In Boston, Filene’s told parents to dress boys in pink. So did Best & Co. in New York City, Halle’s in Cleveland and Marshall Field in Chicago. Today’s color dictate wasn’t established until the 1940s . . . When the women’s liberation movement arrived in the mid-1960s, w
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Introduction: Robert Grant has a list . I’ll just give the ones with more than 10,000 Google Scholar cites: Cox (1972) Regression and life tables: 35,512 citations. Dempster, Laird, Rubin (1977) Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm: 34,988 Bland & Altman (1986) Statistical methods for assessing agreement between two methods of clinical measurement: 27,181 Geman & Geman (1984) Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions, and the Bayesian restoration of images: 15,106 We can find some more via searching Google scholar for familiar names and topics; thus: Metropolis et al. (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines: 26,000 Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing: 21,000 White (1980) A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity: 18,000 Heckman (1977) Sample selection bias as a specification error:
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Introduction: John Eppley asks what I make of this : Eppley is guessing the negative spikes are searches getting swamped by holiday season shoppers.
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Introduction: According to Chris Wilson , there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that last phrase, “no matter what the cost.” I have no idea which was actually asked to the survey participants, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of public opinion research—sometimes you don’t even know what question was asked! I’m not implying anything sinister on Schoen’s part, it’s just interesting to see these two documents floating around. P.S. More here from Kaiser Fung on fundamental flaws with Schoen’s poll.
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Introduction: This video caught my interest – news video clip (from this post2 ) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2011/02/on_summarizing.html The news commentator did seem to be trying to point out what a couple of states had to say about the claimed relationship – almost on their own. Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this! So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it. PoliticInt.pdf North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve. Missisipi and New York are the bolded blue. As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror). K? p.s. you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i.e. see chapter 4 of Gelman and Hill book)
4 0.82723701 724 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-21-New search engine for data & statistics
Introduction: Jon Goldhill points us to a new search engine, Zanran , which is for finding data and statistics. Goldhill writes: It’s useful when you’re looking for a graph/table rather than a single number. For example, if you look for ‘teenage births rates in the united states’ in Zanran you’ll see a series of graphs. If you check in Google, there’s plenty of material – but you’d have to open everything up to see if it had any real numbers. (I hope you’ll appreciate Zanran’s preview capability as well – hovering over the icons gives a useful preview of the content.)
5 0.79900324 1521 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-04-Columbo does posterior predictive checks
Introduction: I’m already on record as saying that Ronald Reagan was a statistician so I think this is ok too . . . Here’s what Columbo does. He hears the killer’s story and he takes it very seriously (it’s murder, and Columbo never jokes about murder), examines all its implications, and finds where it doesn’t fit the data. Then Columbo carefully examines the discrepancies, tries some model expansion, and eventually concludes that he’s proved there’s a problem. OK, now you’re saying: Yeah, yeah, sure, but how does that differ from any other fictional detective? The difference, I think, is that the tradition is for the detective to find clues and use these to come up with hypotheses, or to trap the killer via internal contradictions in his or her statement. I see Columbo is different—and more in keeping with chapter 6 of Bayesian Data Analysis—in that he is taking the killer’s story seriously and exploring all its implications. That’s the essence of predictive model checking: you t
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