andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-951 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: From CNN : In July, KDNuggets.com, an online newsite focused on data mining and analytics software, ran an unusual listing in its jobs section: “We are looking for Predictive Modeling/Data Mining Scientists and Analysts, at both the senior and junior level, to join our department through November 2012 at our Chicago Headquarters,” read the ad. “We are a multi-disciplinary team of statisticians, predictive modelers, data mining experts, mathematicians, software developers, general analysts and organizers – all striving for a single goal: re-electing President Obama.” Users of the Obama 2012 – Are You In? app are not only giving the campaign personal data like their name, gender, birthday, current city, religion and political views, they are sharing their list of friends and information those friends share, like their birthday, current city, religion and political views. As Facebook is now offering the geo-targeting of ads down to ZIP code, this kind of fine-grained informa
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1 “We are a multi-disciplinary team of statisticians, predictive modelers, data mining experts, mathematicians, software developers, general analysts and organizers – all striving for a single goal: re-electing President Obama. [sent-3, score-0.921]
2 app are not only giving the campaign personal data like their name, gender, birthday, current city, religion and political views, they are sharing their list of friends and information those friends share, like their birthday, current city, religion and political views. [sent-5, score-1.084]
3 As Facebook is now offering the geo-targeting of ads down to ZIP code, this kind of fine-grained information is invaluable. [sent-6, score-0.286]
4 Inside the Obama operation, his staff members are using a powerful social networking tool called NationalField, which enables everyone to share what they are working on. [sent-7, score-0.667]
5 Modeled on Facebook, the tool connects all levels of staff to the information they are gathering as they work on tasks like signing up volunteers, knocking on doors, identifying likely voters and dealing with problems. [sent-8, score-1.102]
6 Managers can set goals for field organizers — number of calls made, number of doors knocked — and see, in real time, how people are doing against all kinds of metrics. [sent-9, score-0.572]
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Introduction: From CNN : In July, KDNuggets.com, an online newsite focused on data mining and analytics software, ran an unusual listing in its jobs section: “We are looking for Predictive Modeling/Data Mining Scientists and Analysts, at both the senior and junior level, to join our department through November 2012 at our Chicago Headquarters,” read the ad. “We are a multi-disciplinary team of statisticians, predictive modelers, data mining experts, mathematicians, software developers, general analysts and organizers – all striving for a single goal: re-electing President Obama.” Users of the Obama 2012 – Are You In? app are not only giving the campaign personal data like their name, gender, birthday, current city, religion and political views, they are sharing their list of friends and information those friends share, like their birthday, current city, religion and political views. As Facebook is now offering the geo-targeting of ads down to ZIP code, this kind of fine-grained informa
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Introduction: David Shor sends along a job announcement for Civis Analytics, which he describes as “basically Obama’s Analytics team reconstituted as a company”: Data Scientist Position Overview Data Scientists are responsible for providing the fundamental data science that powers our work – including predictive analytics, data mining, experimental design and ad-hoc statistical analysis. As a Data Scientist, you will join our Chicago-based data science team, working closely and collaboratively with analysts and engineers to identify, quantify and solve big, meaningful problems. Data Scientists will have the opportunity to dive deeply into big problems and work in a variety of areas. Civis Analytics has opportunities for applicants who are seasoned professionals, brilliant new comers, and anywhere in between. Qualifications · Master’s degree in statistics, machine learning, computer science with heavy quant focus, a related subject, or a Bachelor’s degree and significant work ex
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Introduction: Cool! I know Bayes has reached the big time when I receive spam like this: Bayesian networks are rapidly emerging as a new research paradigm . . . With this monthly newsletter, we’ll keep you up to date . . . Financial Analytics Webinar . . . will exhibit at this year’s INFORMS Analytics Conference in downtown Chicago. Please join us for our Bayesian networks technology workshop on April 10 . . . a powerful desktop application (Windows/Mac/Unix) for knowledge discovery, data mining, analytics, predictive modeling and simulation . . . the world’s only comprehensive software package for learning, editing and analyzing Bayesian networks . . . If you no longer wish to receive these emails, please reply to this message with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line . . . You know the saying, “It’s not real unless it’s on TV”? My saying is: It’s not real until it’s on spam.
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Introduction: Raphael Silberzahn writes: Brian Nosek, Eric Luis Uhlmann, Dan Martin, and I just launched a project through the Open Science Center we think you’ll find interesting. The basic idea is to “Crowdstorm a Dataset”. Multiple independent analysts are recruited to test the same hypothesis on the same data set in whatever manner they see as best. If everyone comes up with the same results, then scientists can speak with one voice. If not, the subjectivity and conditionality of results on analysis strategy is made transparent. For this first project, we are crowdstorming the question of whether soccer referees are more likely to give red cards to dark skin toned players than light skin toned players. The full project description is here . If you’re interested in being one of the crowdstormer analysts, you can register here . All analysts will receive an author credit on the final paper. We would love to have Bayesian analysts represented in the group. Also, please feel free to let
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Introduction: David Karger writes: Your recent post on sharing data was of great interest to me, as my own research in computer science asks how to incentivize and lower barriers to data sharing. I was particularly curious about your highlighting of effort as the major dis-incentive to sharing. I would love to hear more, as this question of effort is on we specifically target in our development of tools for data authoring and publishing. As a straw man, let me point out that sharing data technically requires no more than posting an excel spreadsheet online. And that you likely already produced that spreadsheet during your own analytic work. So, in what way does such low-tech publishing fail to meet your data sharing objectives? Our own hypothesis has been that the effort is really quite low, with the problem being a lack of *immediate/tangible* benefits (as opposed to the long-term values you accurately describe). To attack this problem, we’re developing tools (and, since it appear
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Introduction: From CNN : In July, KDNuggets.com, an online newsite focused on data mining and analytics software, ran an unusual listing in its jobs section: “We are looking for Predictive Modeling/Data Mining Scientists and Analysts, at both the senior and junior level, to join our department through November 2012 at our Chicago Headquarters,” read the ad. “We are a multi-disciplinary team of statisticians, predictive modelers, data mining experts, mathematicians, software developers, general analysts and organizers – all striving for a single goal: re-electing President Obama.” Users of the Obama 2012 – Are You In? app are not only giving the campaign personal data like their name, gender, birthday, current city, religion and political views, they are sharing their list of friends and information those friends share, like their birthday, current city, religion and political views. As Facebook is now offering the geo-targeting of ads down to ZIP code, this kind of fine-grained informa
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Introduction: Juan-Pablo Velez writes: I’m helping with a Data Science for Social Good summer fellowship program at the University of Chicago. The goal is to train data scientists that can tackle problems in education, healthcare, energy, transportation, and more. Working with full-time mentors from academia, industry, and the Obama campaign , fellows will build high-impact analytics projects using statistics, machine learning, data mining, and big data technologies. For fellows, we’re looking for grad students, advanced undergrads, and professionals in computer science, machine learning, statistics, and the computational and quantitative sciences. For mentors, we’re looking for folks with practical data science experience. Fellows and mentors will be paid competitively and housed in Chicago for duration of the program, from early June to late August. Rayid Ghani , former Chief Scientist of the Obama 2012 campaign, is leading the program. Eric Sch
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Introduction: I was told about an organization called Reproducibility Initiative. They tell me they are trying to make what was described in our “50 shades of gray” post standard across all of science, particularly areas like cancer research. I don’t know anything else about them, but that sounds like a good start! Here’s the ad: Data Scientist: Science Exchange, Palo Alto, CA Science Exchange is an innovative start-up with a mission to improve the efficiency and quality of scientific research. This Data Science position is critical to our mission. Our ideal candidate has the ability to collect and normalize data from multiple sources. This information will be used to drive marketing and product decisions, as well as fuel many of the features of Science Exchange. Desired Skills & Experience Experience with text mining, entity extraction and natural language processing is essential Experience scripting with either Python or R Experience running complex statistical analyses on l
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Introduction: Jason Rosenfeld, who has the amazing title of “Manager of Basketball Analytics” at the Charlotte Bobcats, announces the following jobs : Basketball Operations: Statistics Basketball Operations Systems Developer – Charlotte Bobcats (Charlotte, NC) POSITION OVERVIEW The Basketball Operations System Developer will collect and import data to our database, check data, and field requests from the Basketball Operations staff. This position will be instrumental in molding and improving our database to assist the staff in player personnel and coaching efforts. ESSENTIAL DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES • Respond to data and database requests from the front office. • Build user-friendly software tools for use by the basketball operations staff. • Accumulate data from various sources to input and organize into our system to assist the basketball operations staff with decisions. • Check and clean data for accuracy and import to our database. • Provide ideas and play a key ro
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Introduction: Ossama Hamed writes in with a new dynamic graphing software: I have the pleasure to brief you on our Data Visualization software “Trend Compass”. TC is a new concept in viewing statistics and trends in an animated way by displaying in one chart 5 axis (X, Y, Time, Bubble size & Bubble color) instead of just the traditional X and Y axis. . . .
2 0.93388945 513 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-12-“Tied for Warmest Year On Record”
Introduction: The National Climatic Data Center has tentatively announced that 2010 is, get this, “tied” for warmest on record. Presumably they mean it’s tied to the precision that they quote (1.12 F above the 20th-century average). The uncertainty in the measurements, as well as some fuzziness about exactly what is being measured (how much of the atmosphere, and the oceans) makes these global-average things really suspect. For instance, if there’s more oceanic turnover one year, that can warm the deep ocean but cool the shallow ocean and atmosphere, so even though the heat content of the atmosphere-ocean system goes up, some of these “global-average” estimates can go down. The reverse can happen too. And of course there are various sources of natural variability that are not, these days, what most people are most interested in. So everybody who knows about the climate professes to hate the emphasis on climate records. And yet, they’re irresistible. I’m sure we’ll see the usual clamor of som
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Introduction: This one was so beautiful I just had to repost it: From the New York Times, 9 Sept 1981: IF I COULD CHANGE PARK SLOPE If I could change Park Slope I would turn it into a palace with queens and kings and princesses to dance the night away at the ball. The trees would look like garden stalks. The lights would look like silver pearls and the dresses would look like soft silver silk. You should see the ball. It looks so luxurious to me. The Park Slope ball is great. Can you guess what street it’s on? “Yes. My street. That’s Carroll Street.” – Jennifer Chatmon, second grade, P.S. 321 This was a few years before my sister told me that she felt safer having a crack house down the block because the cops were surveilling it all the time.
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Introduction: Jeff pointed me to this article by Nick Berry. It’s kind of fun but of course if you know your opponent will be following this strategy you can figure out how to outwit it. Also, Berry writes that ETAOIN SHRDLU CMFWYP VBGKQJ XZ is the “ordering of letter frequency in English language.” Indeed this is the conventional ordering but nobody thinks it’s right anymore. See here (with further discussion here ). I wonder what corpus he’s using. P.S. Klutz was my personal standby.
Introduction: As I wrote a couple years ago: Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . . . it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections: 1. Two major candidates; 2. The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues; 3. The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources; 4. The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years); 5. A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds. Other elections look different. . . . Or, as I said in reference to the current NYC mayoral election: Et selon Andrew Gelman, expert de l’universi
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