andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1613 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Here’s the story of the graph, which was “was shown as part of a training for FBI agents,” and here’s the more recent long form of my presentation.
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same-blog 1 1.0 1613 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-09-Hey—here’s a photo of me making fun of a silly infographic (from last year)
Introduction: Here’s the story of the graph, which was “was shown as part of a training for FBI agents,” and here’s the more recent long form of my presentation.
2 0.19185263 915 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-17-(Worst) graph of the year
Introduction: This (forwarded to me from Jeff, from a powerpoint by Willam Gawthrop) wins not on form but on content: Really this graph should stand alone but it’s so wonderful that I can’t resist pointing out a few things: - The gap between 610 and 622 A.D. seems to be about the same as the previous 600 years, and only a little less than the 1400 years before that. - “Pious and devout” Jews are portrayed as having steadily increased in nonviolence up to the present day. Been to Israel lately? - I assume the line labeled “Bible” is referring to Christians? I’m sort of amazed to see pious and devout Christians listed as being maximally violent at the beginning. Huh? I thought Christ was supposed to be a nonviolent, mellow dude. The line starts at 3 B.C., implying that baby Jesus was at the extreme of violence. Gong forward, we can learn from the graph that pious and devout Christians in 1492 or 1618, say, were much more peaceful than Jesus and his crew. - Most amusingly g
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Introduction: Mike Spagat sends along a serious presentation with an ironic title: 18.7 MILLION ANNIHILATED SAYS LEADING EXPERT IN PEER–REVIEWED JOURNAL: AN APPROVED, AUTHORITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION MADE BY AN EXPERT He’ll be speaking on it at tomorrow’s meeting of the Catastrophes and Conflict Forum of the Royal Society of Medicine in London. All I can say is, it’s a long time since I’ve seen a slide presentation in portrait form. It brings me back to the days of transparency sheets.
4 0.11777751 1280 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-24-Non-Bayesian analysis of Bayesian agents?
Introduction: Econometrician and statistician Dale Poirier writes: 24 years ago (1988, Journal of Economics Perspectives) I [Poirier] noted cognitive dissonance among some economists who treat the agents in their theoretical framework as Bayesians, but then analyze the data (even in the same paper!) as a frequentist. Recently, I have found similar cases in cognitive science. I suspect other disciplines exhibit such behavior. Do you know of any examples in political science? My reply: I don’t know of any such examples in political science. Game theoretic models are popular in poli sci, but I haven’t seen much in the way of models of Bayesian decision making. Here are two references (not in political science) that might be helpful. 1. I have argued that the utility model (popular in economics and political science as a way of providing “microfoundations” for analyses of aggregate behavior) is actually more of a bit of folk-psychology that should not be taken seriously. To me, it is si
5 0.10941486 1439 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-01-A book with a bunch of simple graphs
Introduction: Howard Friedman sent me a new book, The Measure of a Nation, subtitled How to Regain America’s Competitive Edge and Boost Our Global Standing. Without commenting on the substance of Friedman’s recommendations, I’d like to endorse his strategy of presentation, which is to display graph after graph after graph showing the same message over and over again, which is that the U.S. is outperformed by various other countries (mostly in Europe) on a variety of measures. These aren’t graphs I would ever make—they are scatterplots in which the x-axis conveys no information. But they have the advantage of repetition: once you figure out how to read one of the graphs, you can read the others easily. Here’s an example which I found from a quick Google: I can’t actually figure out what is happening on the x-axis, nor do I understand the “star, middle child, dog” thing. But I like the use of graphics. Lots more fun than bullet points. Seriously. P.S. Just to be clear: I am not trying
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same-blog 1 0.98877203 1613 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-09-Hey—here’s a photo of me making fun of a silly infographic (from last year)
Introduction: Here’s the story of the graph, which was “was shown as part of a training for FBI agents,” and here’s the more recent long form of my presentation.
2 0.81490266 915 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-17-(Worst) graph of the year
Introduction: This (forwarded to me from Jeff, from a powerpoint by Willam Gawthrop) wins not on form but on content: Really this graph should stand alone but it’s so wonderful that I can’t resist pointing out a few things: - The gap between 610 and 622 A.D. seems to be about the same as the previous 600 years, and only a little less than the 1400 years before that. - “Pious and devout” Jews are portrayed as having steadily increased in nonviolence up to the present day. Been to Israel lately? - I assume the line labeled “Bible” is referring to Christians? I’m sort of amazed to see pious and devout Christians listed as being maximally violent at the beginning. Huh? I thought Christ was supposed to be a nonviolent, mellow dude. The line starts at 3 B.C., implying that baby Jesus was at the extreme of violence. Gong forward, we can learn from the graph that pious and devout Christians in 1492 or 1618, say, were much more peaceful than Jesus and his crew. - Most amusingly g
3 0.77460247 2146 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-24-NYT version of birthday graph
Introduction: They didn’t have room for all four graphs of the time-series decomposition so they just displayed the date-of-year graph: They rotated so the graph fit better on the page. The rotation worked for me, but I was a bit bummed that that they put the title and heading of the graph (“The birthrate tends to drop on holidays . . .”) on the left in the Mar-Apr slot, leaving no room to label Leap Day and April Fool’s. I suggested to the graphics people that they put the label at the very top and just shrink the rest of the graph by 5 or 10% so as to not take up any more total space. Then there’d be plenty of space to label Leap Day and April Fool’s. But they didn’t do it, maybe they felt that it wouldn’t look good to have the label right at the top, I dunno.
4 0.76574475 502 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-04-Cash in, cash out graph
Introduction: David Afshartous writes: I thought this graph [from Ed Easterling] might be good for your blog. The 71 outlined squares show the main story, and the regions of the graph present the information nicely. Looks like the bins for the color coding are not of equal size and of course the end bins are unbounded. Might be interesting to graph the distribution of the actual data for the 71 outlined squares. In addition, I assume that each period begins on Jan 1 so data size could be naturally increased by looking at intervals that start on June 1 as well (where the limit of this process would be to have it at the granularity of one day; while it most likely wouldn’t make much difference, I’ve seen some graphs before where 1 year returns can be quite sensitive to starting date, etc). I agree that (a) the graph could be improved in small ways–in particular, adding half-year data seems like a great idea–and (b) it’s a wonderful, wonderful graph as is. And the NYT graphics people ad
5 0.75013143 829 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-29-Infovis vs. statgraphics: A clear example of their different goals
Introduction: I recently came across a data visualization that perfectly demonstrates the difference between the “infovis” and “statgraphics” perspectives. Here’s the image ( link from Tyler Cowen): That’s the infovis. The statgraphic version would simply be a dotplot, something like this: (I purposely used the default settings in R with only minor modifications here to demonstrate what happens if you just want to plot the data with minimal effort.) Let’s compare the two graphs: From a statistical graphics perspective, the second graph dominates. The countries are directly comparable and the numbers are indicated by positions rather than area. The first graph is full of distracting color and gives the misleading visual impression that the total GDP of countries 5-10 is about equal to that of countries 1-4. If the goal is to get attention , though, it’s another story. There’s nothing special about the top graph above except how it looks. It represents neither a dat
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same-blog 1 0.91863 1613 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-09-Hey—here’s a photo of me making fun of a silly infographic (from last year)
Introduction: Here’s the story of the graph, which was “was shown as part of a training for FBI agents,” and here’s the more recent long form of my presentation.
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Introduction: I was curious so I ordered a used copy. It was pretty good. It fit in my pocket and I read it on the plane. It was written in a bland, spare manner, not worth reading for any direct insights it would give into human nature, but the plot moved along. And the background material was interesting in the window it gave into the society of the 1950s. It was fun to read a book of pulp fiction that didn’t have any dead bodies in it. I wonder what Jenny Davidson would think of it.
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Introduction: This is just a local Columbia thing, so I’m posting Sunday night when nobody will read it . . . Samantha Cooney reports in the Spectator (Columbia’s student newspaper): Frontiers of Science may be in for an overhaul. After a year reviewing the course, the Educational Policy and Planning Committee has issued a report detailing its findings and outlining potential ways to make the oft-maligned course more effective. The EPPC’s report, a copy of which was obtained by Spectator, suggests eliminating the lecture portion of the course in favor of small seminars with a standardized curriculum, mirroring other courses in the Core Curriculum. This seems reasonable to me. It sounds like the seminar portion of the class has been much more successful than the lectures. Once the lectures are removed entirely, perhaps it will allow the students to focus on learning during the seminar periods. Also, I appreciate that Cooney did a good job quoting me. As I wrote last month , I respe
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Introduction: Commenters here are occasionally bothered that I spend so much time attacking frauds and plagiarists. See, for example, here and here . Why go on and on about these losers, given that there are more important problems in the world such as war, pestilence, hunger, and graphs where the y-axis doesn’t go all the way down to zero? Part of the story is that I do research for a living so I resent people who devalue research through misattribution or fraud, in the same way that rich people don’t like counterfeiters. What really bugs me, though, is when cheaters get caught and still don’t admit it. People like Hauser, Wegman, Fischer, and Weick get under my skin because they have the chutzpah to just deny deny deny. The grainy time-stamped videotape with their hand in the cookie jar is right there, and they’ll still talk around the problem. Makes me want to scream. This happens all the time . All. Over. The. Place. Everybody makes mistakes, and just about everybody does thing
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