andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1546 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: A few years ago I suggested a research project to study how Americans define themselves in terms of regional identity. For example, if you grew up in South Dakota but live in Washington, D.C., do you you call yourself a midwesterner, a westerner, a southerner, or what? The analogy is to the paper by Michael Hout on “How 4 million Irish immigrants became 40 million Irish Americans.” Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t about prolific breeding, it was about how people of mixed background choose to classify themselves.
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1 A few years ago I suggested a research project to study how Americans define themselves in terms of regional identity. [sent-1, score-0.938]
2 For example, if you grew up in South Dakota but live in Washington, D. [sent-2, score-0.319]
3 , do you you call yourself a midwesterner, a westerner, a southerner, or what? [sent-4, score-0.1]
4 The analogy is to the paper by Michael Hout on “How 4 million Irish immigrants became 40 million Irish Americans. [sent-5, score-1.069]
5 ” Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t about prolific breeding, it was about how people of mixed background choose to classify themselves. [sent-6, score-0.649]
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Introduction: A few years ago I suggested a research project to study how Americans define themselves in terms of regional identity. For example, if you grew up in South Dakota but live in Washington, D.C., do you you call yourself a midwesterner, a westerner, a southerner, or what? The analogy is to the paper by Michael Hout on “How 4 million Irish immigrants became 40 million Irish Americans.” Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t about prolific breeding, it was about how people of mixed background choose to classify themselves.
2 0.11755881 474 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-18-The kind of frustration we could all use more of
Introduction: Nate writes : The Yankees have offered Jeter $45 million over three years — or $15 million per year. . . But that doesn’t mean that the process won’t be frustrating for Jeter, or that there won’t be a few hurt feelings along the way. . . . $45 million, huh? Even after taxes , that’s a lot of money!
3 0.10536436 1457 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-13-Retro ethnic slurs
Introduction: From Watership Down: There is a rabbit saying, ‘In the warren, more stories than passages’; and a rabbit can no more refuse to tell a story than an Irishman can refuse to fight. Wow. OK, if someone made a joke about New Yorkers being argumentative or people from Iowa being boring (sorry, Tom!), I wouldn’t see it as being in poor taste. But somehow, to this non-U.K. reader, Adams’s remark about “Irishmen” seems a bit over the top. I’m not criticizing it as offensive, exactly; it just is a bit jarring, and it’s kind of hard for me to believe someone would just write that as a throwaway line anymore. Things have changed a lot since 1971, I guess, or maybe in England an Irish joke is no more offensive/awkward than a joke about corrupt Chicagoans, loopy Californians, or crazy Floridians would be here.
4 0.092849113 831 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-30-A Wikipedia riddle!
Introduction: I was distinguished for over three years and now am renowned. For most of the past year and a half, though, I was neither. Who am I? First person who guesses the right answer in comments gets a free copy of Jenny Davidson’s book, “Breeding”–as soon as she sends it to me, as she promised a couple years ago! You’ll get an extra prize if you can express the answer in an indirect way, without using the person’s name or being too obvious about it but making the identification clear enough that I know you know the answer. P.S. Reading Wikipedia edits . . . that’s a new low in time-wasting!
5 0.081362762 1356 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-31-Question 21 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 21. A country is divided into three regions with populations of 2 million, 2 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. A survey is done asking about foreign policy opinions.. Somebody proposes taking a sample of 50 people from each reason. Give a reason why this non-proportional sample would not usually be done, and also a reason why it might actually be a good idea. Solution to question 20 From yesterday : 20. Explain in two sentences why we expect survey respondents to be honest about vote preferences but possibly dishonest about reporting unhealty behaviors. Solution: Respondents tend to be sincere about vote preferences because this affects the outcome of the poll, and people are motivated to have their candidate poll well. This motivation is typically not present in reporting behaviors; you have no particular reason for wanting to affect the average survey response.
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Introduction: A few years ago I suggested a research project to study how Americans define themselves in terms of regional identity. For example, if you grew up in South Dakota but live in Washington, D.C., do you you call yourself a midwesterner, a westerner, a southerner, or what? The analogy is to the paper by Michael Hout on “How 4 million Irish immigrants became 40 million Irish Americans.” Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t about prolific breeding, it was about how people of mixed background choose to classify themselves.
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Introduction: Malecki’s right, this is very cool indeed. P.S. Is it really true that “4.5 million Parisians” ride the Metro every day? Even setting aside that not all the riders are Parisians, I’m guessing that 4.5 million is the number of rides, not the number of people who ride.
3 0.68421495 1548 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-25-Health disparities are associated with low life expectancy
Introduction: Lee Seachrest points to an article , “Life expectancy and disparity: an international comparison of life table data,” by James Vaupel, Zhen Zhang, and Alyson van Raalte. This paper has killer graphs. Here are their results: In 89 of the 170 years from 1840 to 2009, the country with the highest male life expectancy also had the lowest male life disparity. This was true in 86 years for female life expectancy and disparity. In all years, the top several life expectancy leaders were also the top life disparity leaders. Although only 38% of deaths were premature, fully 84% of the increase in life expectancy resulted from averting premature deaths. The reduction in life disparity resulted from reductions in early-life disparity, that is, disparity caused by premature deaths; late-life disparity levels remained roughly constant. The authors also note: Reducing early-life disparities helps people plan their less-uncertain lifetimes. A higher likelihood of surviving to old age
4 0.65896505 1549 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-26-My talk at the Larchmont public library this Sunday
Introduction: Sunday, October 28, 2012, 4:00 pm, Larchmont Public Library, 121 Larchmont Ave, Larchmont, NY . I’m picturing a roomful of people like this: On the other hand, when I spoke at the New Jersey Institute of Technology in Newark a few years ago, it was nothing like the Sopranos. . . .
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Introduction: Image via Wikipedia Robert Zubrin writes in “How Much Is an Astronaut’s Life Worth?” ( Reason , Feb 2012 ): …policy analyst John D. Graham and his colleagues at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis found in 1997 that the median cost for lifesaving expenditures and regulations by the U.S. government in the health care, residential, transportation, and occupational areas ranges from about $1 million to $3 million spent per life saved in today’s dollars. The only marked exception to this pattern occurs in the area of environmental health protection (such as the Superfund program) which costs about $200 million per life saved. Graham and his colleagues call the latter kind of inefficiency “ statistical murder ,” since thousands of additional lives could be saved each year if the money were used more cost-effectively. To avoid such deadly waste, the Department of Transportation has a policy of rejecting any proposed safety expenditure that costs more than $3
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same-blog 1 0.88140774 1546 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-24-Hey—has anybody done this study yet?
Introduction: A few years ago I suggested a research project to study how Americans define themselves in terms of regional identity. For example, if you grew up in South Dakota but live in Washington, D.C., do you you call yourself a midwesterner, a westerner, a southerner, or what? The analogy is to the paper by Michael Hout on “How 4 million Irish immigrants became 40 million Irish Americans.” Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t about prolific breeding, it was about how people of mixed background choose to classify themselves.
2 0.87003589 1457 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-13-Retro ethnic slurs
Introduction: From Watership Down: There is a rabbit saying, ‘In the warren, more stories than passages’; and a rabbit can no more refuse to tell a story than an Irishman can refuse to fight. Wow. OK, if someone made a joke about New Yorkers being argumentative or people from Iowa being boring (sorry, Tom!), I wouldn’t see it as being in poor taste. But somehow, to this non-U.K. reader, Adams’s remark about “Irishmen” seems a bit over the top. I’m not criticizing it as offensive, exactly; it just is a bit jarring, and it’s kind of hard for me to believe someone would just write that as a throwaway line anymore. Things have changed a lot since 1971, I guess, or maybe in England an Irish joke is no more offensive/awkward than a joke about corrupt Chicagoans, loopy Californians, or crazy Floridians would be here.
3 0.78835797 271 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-12-GLM – exposure
Introduction: Bernard Phiri writes: I am relatively new to glm models, anyhow, I am currently using your book “Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models” (pages 109-115). I am using a Poisson GLM model to analyse an aerial census dataset of wild herbivores on a ranch in Kenya. In my analysis I have the following variables: 1. Outcome variable: count of wild herbivores sighted at a given location 2. Explanatory variable1: vegetation type i.e. type of vegetation of the grid in which animals were sighted (the ranch is divided into 1x1km grids) 3. Explanatory variable2: animal species e.g. eland, elephant, zebra etc 4. Exposure: proximity to water i.e. distance (km) to the nearest water point My questions are as follows: 1. Am I correct to include proximity to water point as an offset? I notice that in the example in your book the offset is a count, does this matter? 2. By including proximity to water in the model as an exposure am I correct to interpret th
4 0.71385401 129 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-Unrelated to all else
Introduction: Another stereotype is affirmed when I go on the U.K. rail system webpage and it repeatedly times out on me. At one point I have a browser open with the itinerary I’m interested in, and then awhile later I reopen the window (not clicking on anything on the page, just bringing the window up on the screen) but it’s timed out again. P.S. Yes, yes, I know that Amtrak is worse. Still, it’s amusing to see a confirmation that, at least in one respect, the British trains are as bad as they say.
5 0.67134964 1766 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-16-“Nightshifts Linked to Increased Risk for Ovarian Cancer”
Introduction: Zosia Chustecka writes : Much of the previous work on the link between cancer and nightshifts has focused on breast cancer . . . The latest report, focusing on ovarian cancer, was published in the April issue of Occupational and Environmental Medicine. This increase in the risk for ovarian cancer with nightshift work is consistent with, and of similar magnitude to, the risk for breast cancer, say lead author Parveen Bhatti, PhD, and colleagues from the epidemiology program at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington. The researchers examined data from a local population-based cancer registry that is part of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program. They identified 1101 women with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer, 389 with borderline disease, and 1832 without ovarian cancer (control group). The women, who were 35 to 74 years of age, were asked about the hours they worked, and specifically whether they had ever worked the nig
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