andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-967 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I don’t want to make a habit of this, but . . . I was curious what Easterbrook would write as a follow-up to his recent Huntsman puff, and here’s what he came up with: Tired of cookie-cutter political contests between hauntingly similar candidates? Then you’re going to like the upcoming race for one of the Senate seats in the late Ted Kennedy’s haunting grounds. Elizabeth Warren, best known for creating and fighting for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is hoping to challenge Republican incumbent Scott Brown. They’re both qualified, but they couldn’t be more different — personally or politically. Um, no. 1. It seems a bit of a stretch to say the two candidates “couldn’t be more different personally.” Brown is a 52-year-old married white lawyer with two children. Warren is a 62-year-old married white lawyer with three children. According to Wikipedia, they both had middle-class backgrounds, Brown in Massachusetts and Warren in Oklahoma, and they suffered some per
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 I was curious what Easterbrook would write as a follow-up to his recent Huntsman puff, and here’s what he came up with: Tired of cookie-cutter political contests between hauntingly similar candidates? [sent-4, score-0.136]
2 Then you’re going to like the upcoming race for one of the Senate seats in the late Ted Kennedy’s haunting grounds. [sent-5, score-0.2]
3 Elizabeth Warren, best known for creating and fighting for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is hoping to challenge Republican incumbent Scott Brown. [sent-6, score-0.12]
4 They’re both qualified, but they couldn’t be more different — personally or politically. [sent-7, score-0.063]
5 It seems a bit of a stretch to say the two candidates “couldn’t be more different personally. [sent-10, score-0.221]
6 ” Brown is a 52-year-old married white lawyer with two children. [sent-11, score-0.301]
7 Warren is a 62-year-old married white lawyer with three children. [sent-12, score-0.301]
8 According to Wikipedia, they both had middle-class backgrounds, Brown in Massachusetts and Warren in Oklahoma, and they suffered some personal and financial challenges during their childhood. [sent-13, score-0.134]
9 Brown and Warren may very well have strikingly different personalities but Easterbrook presents no evidence for that claim. [sent-14, score-0.197]
10 It’s even more difficult to plausibly claim that Warren and Brown “couldn’t be more different politically. [sent-16, score-0.126]
11 ” Yes, Warren is a liberal Democrat, but Brown is not a conservative Republican. [sent-17, score-0.166]
12 He’s a moderate, and is as liberal as a Republican as you’ll see in the contemporary U. [sent-18, score-0.149]
13 There aren’t a lot of moderate Republicans in Congress, but Brown is one of them. [sent-23, score-0.198]
14 Boris is a professor at the University of Chicago who did the research predicting that Scott Brown would be a political moderate in the Senate. [sent-26, score-0.262]
15 Boris is a political scientist, he knows a lot about politics, he’s a serious guy with interesting ideas. [sent-28, score-0.064]
16 Unless Reuters is afraid of losing their football-fan readership, I think they should invite Boris to write a column for them. [sent-29, score-0.135]
17 If Reuters really doesn’t want to lose Easterbrook, they could give him a lateral move to their “Life & Culture” section. [sent-30, score-0.075]
18 Amazingly enough, Easterbrook’s column was reposted at the Washington Monthly website. [sent-33, score-0.08]
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Introduction: After I recently criticized Gregg Easterbrook for assigning Obama an implausible 90+% chance of beating Mitt Romney, some commenters thought I was being too critical, that I should cut Easterbrook some slack because he just was speaking metaphorically. In other words, Easterbrook is a “qual.” He uses numbers in his writing because that’s what everyone is supposed to do nowadays, but he doesn’t intend those numbers to be meant literally. Similarly, he presumably didn’t really mean it when he wrote that Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren “couldn’t be more different — personally or politically.” And he had no problem typing that Obama’s approval rating was 23% because, to him, “23%” is just another word for “low.” He’s a qual, that’s all. Similarly, when Samantha Power was just being a qual when she wrote the meaningful-sounding but actually empty statement, “Since 1968, with the single exception of the election of George W. Bush in 2000, Americans have chosen Republican pres
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