andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-790 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: In the next few days we’ll be changing the format of the blog and moving it to a new server. If you have difficulty posting comments, just wait and post them in a few days when all should be working well. (But if you can post a comment, go for it. All the old entries and comments should be reappearing in the reconstituted blog.)
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same-blog 1 1.0 790 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-08-Blog in motion
Introduction: In the next few days we’ll be changing the format of the blog and moving it to a new server. If you have difficulty posting comments, just wait and post them in a few days when all should be working well. (But if you can post a comment, go for it. All the old entries and comments should be reappearing in the reconstituted blog.)
2 0.23519206 771 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-16-30 days of statistics
Introduction: I was talking with a colleague about one of our research projects and said that I would write something up, if blogging didn’t get in the way. She suggested that for the next month I just blog about my research ideas. So I think I’ll do that. This means no mocking of plagiarists, no reflections on literature, no answers to miscellaneous questions about how many groups you need in a multilevel model, no rants about economists, no links to pretty graphs, etc., for 30 days. Meanwhile, I have a roughly 30-day backlog. So after my next 30 days of stat blogging, the backlog will gradually appear. There’s some good stuff there, including reflections on Milos, a (sincere) tribute to the haters, an updated Twitteo Killed the Bloggio Star, a question about acupuncture, and some remote statistical modeling advice I gave that actually worked! I’m sure you’ll enjoy it. But you’ll have to wait for all that fun stuff. For the next thirty days, it’s statistics research every day. P.S. I
3 0.19636701 817 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-23-New blog home
Introduction: Hi all. We’ve moved the blog and are still working out some bugs. For example, we delete spam comments but sometimes they remain on the blog. A few other things. We should be cleaning it up more in the next few days.
4 0.15984946 91 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-RSS mess
Introduction: Apparently some of our new blog entries are appearing as old entries on the RSS feed, meaning that those of you who read the blog using RSS may be missing a lot of good stuff. We’re working on this. But, in the meantime, I recommend you click on the blog itself to see what’s been posted in the last few weeks. Enjoy.
5 0.13914888 2236 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-07-Selection bias in the reporting of shaky research
Introduction: I’ll reorder this week’s posts a bit in order to continue on a topic that came up yesterday. A couple days ago a reporter wrote to me asking what I thought of this paper on Money, Status, and the Ovulatory Cycle. I responded: Given the quality of the earlier paper by these researchers, I’m not inclined to believe anything these people write. But, to be specific, I can point out some things: - The authors define low fertility as days 8-14. Oddly enough, these authors in their earlier paper used days 7-14. But according to womenshealth.gov, the most fertile days are between days 10 and 17. The choice of these days affects their analysis, and it is not a good sign that they use different days in different papers. (see more on this point in sections 2.3 and 3.1 of this paper: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/p_hacking.pdf) - They perform a lot of different analyses, and many others could be performed. For example, “Study 1 indicates that ovul
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16 0.096609518 1311 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-10-My final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
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18 0.094851151 826 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-27-The Statistics Forum!
19 0.091115147 2265 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-On deck this week
20 0.090406492 1567 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-07-Election reports
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same-blog 1 0.99627537 790 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-08-Blog in motion
Introduction: In the next few days we’ll be changing the format of the blog and moving it to a new server. If you have difficulty posting comments, just wait and post them in a few days when all should be working well. (But if you can post a comment, go for it. All the old entries and comments should be reappearing in the reconstituted blog.)
2 0.84590781 771 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-16-30 days of statistics
Introduction: I was talking with a colleague about one of our research projects and said that I would write something up, if blogging didn’t get in the way. She suggested that for the next month I just blog about my research ideas. So I think I’ll do that. This means no mocking of plagiarists, no reflections on literature, no answers to miscellaneous questions about how many groups you need in a multilevel model, no rants about economists, no links to pretty graphs, etc., for 30 days. Meanwhile, I have a roughly 30-day backlog. So after my next 30 days of stat blogging, the backlog will gradually appear. There’s some good stuff there, including reflections on Milos, a (sincere) tribute to the haters, an updated Twitteo Killed the Bloggio Star, a question about acupuncture, and some remote statistical modeling advice I gave that actually worked! I’m sure you’ll enjoy it. But you’ll have to wait for all that fun stuff. For the next thirty days, it’s statistics research every day. P.S. I
3 0.80805844 817 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-23-New blog home
Introduction: Hi all. We’ve moved the blog and are still working out some bugs. For example, we delete spam comments but sometimes they remain on the blog. A few other things. We should be cleaning it up more in the next few days.
4 0.77305561 104 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Seeking balance
Introduction: I’m trying to temporarily kick the blogging habit as I seem to be addicted. I’m currently on a binge and my plan is to schedule a bunch of already-written entries at one per weekday and not blog anything new for awhile. Yesterday I fell off the wagon and posted 4 items, but maybe now I can show some restraint. P.S. In keeping with the spirit of this blog, I scheduled it to appear on 13 May, even though I wrote it on 15 Apr. Just about everything you’ve been reading on this blog for the past several weeks (and lots of forthcoming items) were written a month ago. The only exceptions are whatever my cobloggers have been posting and various items that were timely enough that I inserted them in the queue afterward. P.P.S I bumped it up to 22 Jun because, as of 14 Apr, I was continuing to write new entries. I hope to slow down soon! P.P.P.S. (20 June) I was going to bump it up again–the horizon’s now in mid-July–but I thought, enough is enough! Right now I think that about ha
5 0.76417553 1709 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-06-The fractal nature of scientific revolutions
Introduction: Phil Earnhardt writes: I stumbled across your blog entry after googling on those terms. If I could comment on the closed entry [We had to shut off comments on old blog entries for reasons of spam --- ed.], I’d note: scientific revolutions are fractal; they’re also chaotic in their dynamics. Predictability when a particular scientific revolution will take hold—or be rejected—is problematic. I find myself wishing that Chaos Theory had been established when Kuhn wrote his essay.
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13 0.66918355 826 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-27-The Statistics Forum!
14 0.66475385 2085 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-02-I’ve already written next year’s April Fools post!
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18 0.63265485 2075 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-23-PubMed Commons: A system for commenting on articles in PubMed
19 0.61579603 619 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-19-If a comment is flagged as spam, it will disappear forever
20 0.61126047 132 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-Note to “Cigarettes”
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1 0.9895308 1360 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-02-Helpful on happiness
Introduction: Following on our recent discussion of contradictory findings on happiness, David Austin writes: A pellucid discussion of happiness and happiness research is Fred Feldman, What is This Thing Called Happiness? (Oxford University Press, 2010). And here’s Feldman’s summary of his book.
same-blog 2 0.98946381 790 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-08-Blog in motion
Introduction: In the next few days we’ll be changing the format of the blog and moving it to a new server. If you have difficulty posting comments, just wait and post them in a few days when all should be working well. (But if you can post a comment, go for it. All the old entries and comments should be reappearing in the reconstituted blog.)
3 0.97116709 1342 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-24-The Used TV Price is Too Damn High
Introduction: Rohin Dhar points me to this post : At Priceonomics, we’ve learned that our users don’t want to buy used products. Rather, they want to buy inexpensive products, and used items happen to be inexpensive. Let someone else eat the initial depreciation, Priceonomics users will swoop in later and get a good deal. . . . But if you want to buy a used television, you are in for a world of hurt. As you peruse through the Craigslist listings for used TVs, you may notice something surprising – the prices are kind of high. Do a quick check on Amazon and your suspicions will be confirmed; lots of people try to sell their used television for more than that same TV would cost brand new. . . . To test our suspicions that something was amiss in the used television market, we compared used TV prices to the prices of buying them new instead. . . . It turns out, people have very inflated expectations for how much they call sell their used TV. Only 3 of the 26 televisions we analyzed were discounte
4 0.96227372 589 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-24-On summarizing a noisy scatterplot with a single comparison of two points
Introduction: John Sides discusses how his scatterplot of unionization rates and budget deficits made it onto cable TV news: It’s also interesting to see how he [journalist Chris Hayes] chooses to explain a scatterplot — especially given the evidence that people don’t always understand scatterplots. He compares pairs of cases that don’t illustrate the basic hypothesis of Brooks, Scott Walker, et al. Obviously, such comparisons could be misleading, but given that there was no systematic relationship depicted that graph, these particular comparisons are not. This idea–summarizing a bivariate pattern by comparing pairs of points–reminds me of a well-known statistical identities which I refer to in a paper with David Park: John Sides is certainly correct that if you can pick your pair of points, you can make extremely misleading comparisons. But if you pick every pair of points, and average over them appropriately, you end up with the least-squares regression slope. Pretty cool, and
5 0.96192968 1315 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-12-Question 2 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 2. Which of the following are useful goals in a pilot study? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) You can search for statistical significance, then from that decide what to look for in a confirmatory analysis of your full dataset. (b) You can see if you find statistical significance in a pre-chosen comparison of interest. (c) You can examine the direction (positive or negative, even if not statistically significant) of comparisons of interest. (d) With a small sample size, you cannot hope to learn anything conclusive, but you can get a crude estimate of effect size and standard deviation which will be useful in a power analysis to help you decide how large your full study needs to be. (e) You can talk with survey respondents and get a sense of how they perceived your questions. (f) You get a chance to learn about practical difficulties with sampling, nonresponse, and question wording. (g) You can check if your sample is approximately representative of your population. Soluti
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15 0.95970923 638 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-30-More on the correlation between statistical and political ideology
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19 0.95824522 1483 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-04-“Bestselling Author Caught Posting Positive Reviews of His Own Work on Amazon”
20 0.95818341 1670 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-13-More Bell Labs happy talk