nips nips2009 nips2009-115 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

115 nips-2009-Individuation, Identification and Object Discovery


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Author: Charles Kemp, Alan Jern, Fei Xu

Abstract: Humans are typically able to infer how many objects their environment contains and to recognize when the same object is encountered twice. We present a simple statistical model that helps to explain these abilities and evaluate it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment suggests that humans rely on prior knowledge when deciding whether an object token has been previously encountered. Our second and third experiments suggest that humans can infer how many objects they have seen and can learn about categories and their properties even when they are uncertain about which tokens are instances of the same object. From an early age, humans and other animals [1] appear to organize the flux of experience into a series of encounters with discrete and persisting objects. Consider, for example, a young child who grows up in a home with two dogs. At a relatively early age the child will solve the problem of object discovery and will realize that her encounters with dogs correspond to views of two individuals rather than one or three. The child will also solve the problem of identification, and will be able to reliably identify an individual (e.g. Fido) each time it is encountered. This paper presents a Bayesian approach that helps to explain both object discovery and identification. Bayesian models are appealing in part because they help to explain how inferences are guided by prior knowledge. Imagine, for example, that you see some photographs taken by your friends Alice and Bob. The first shot shows Alice sitting next to a large statue and eating a sandwich, and the second is similar but features Bob rather than Alice. The statues in each photograph look identical, and probably you will conclude that the two photographs are representations of the same statue. The sandwiches in the photographs also look identical, but probably you will conclude that the photographs show different sandwiches. The prior knowledge that contributes to these inferences appears rather complex, but we will explore some much simpler cases where prior knowledge guides identification. A second advantage of Bayesian models is that they help to explain how learners cope with uncertainty. In some cases a learner may solve the problem of object discovery but should maintain uncertainty when faced with identification problems. For example, I may be quite certain that I have met eight different individuals at a dinner party, even if I am unable to distinguish between two guests who are identical twins. In other cases a learner may need to reason about several related problems even if there is no definitive solution to any one of them. Consider, for example, a young child who must simultaneously discover which objects her world contains (e.g. Mother, Father, Fido, and Rex) and organize them into categories (e.g. people and dogs). Many accounts of categorization seem to implicitly assume that the problem of identification must be solved before categorization can begin, but we will see that a probabilistic approach can address both problems simultaneously. Identification and object discovery have been discussed by researchers from several disciplines, including psychology [2, 3, 4, 5, 6], machine learning [7, 8], statistics [9], and philosophy [10]. Many machine learning approaches can handle identity uncertainty, or uncertainty about whether two tokens correspond to the same object. Some approaches such such as BLOG [8] are able in addition to handle problems where the number of objects is not specified in advance. We propose 1 that some of these approaches can help to explain human learning, and this paper uses a simple BLOG-style approach [8] to account for human inferences. There are several existing psychological models of identification, and the work of Shepard [11], Nosofsky [3] and colleagues is probably the most prominent. Models in this tradition usually focus on problems where the set of objects is specified in advance and where identity uncertainty arises as a result of perceptual noise. In contrast, we focus on problems where the number of objects must be inferred and where identity uncertainty arises from partial observability rather than noise. A separate psychological tradition focuses on problems where the number of objects is not fixed in advance. Developmental psychologists, for example, have used displays where only one object token is visible at any time to explore whether young infants can infer how many different objects have been observed in total [4]. Our work emphasizes some of the same themes as this developmental research, but we go beyond previous work in this area by presenting and evaluating a computational approach to object identification and discovery. The problem of deciding how many objects have been observed is sometimes called individuation [12] but here we treat individuation as a special case of object discovery. Note, however, that object discovery can also refer to cases where learners infer the existence of objects that have never been observed. Unobserved-object discovery has received relatively little attention in the psychological literature, but is addressed by statistical models including including species-sampling models [9] and capture-recapture models [13]. Simple statistical models of this kind will not address some of the most compelling examples of unobserved-object discovery, such as the discovery of the planet Neptune, or the ability to infer the existence of a hidden object by following another person’s gaze [14]. We will show, however, that a simple statistical approach helps to explain how humans infer the existence of objects that they have never seen. 1 A probabilistic account of object discovery and identification Object discovery and identification may depend on many kinds of observations and may be supported by many kinds of prior knowledge. This paper considers a very simple setting where these problems can be explored. Suppose that an agent is learning about a world that contains nw white balls and n − nw gray balls. Let f (oi ) indicate the color of ball oi , where each ball is white (f (oi ) = 1) or gray (f (oi ) = 0). An agent learns about the world by observing a sequence of object tokens. Suppose that label l(j) is a unique identifier of token j—in other words, suppose that the jth token is a token of object ol(j) . Suppose also that the jth token is observed to have feature value g(j). Note the difference between f and g: f is a vector that specifies the color of the n balls in the world, and g is a vector that specifies the color of the object tokens observed thus far. We define a probability distribution over token sequences by assuming that a world is sampled from a prior P (n, nw ) and that tokens are sampled from this world. The full generative model is: P (n) ∝ 1 n 0 if n ≤ 1000 otherwise nw | n ∼ Uniform(0, n) l(j) | n ∼ Uniform(1, n) g(j) = f (ol(j) ) (1) (2) (3) (4) A prior often used for inferences about a population of unknown size is the scale-invariant Jeffreys 1 prior P (n) = n [15]. We follow this standard approach here but truncate at n = 1000. Choosing some upper bound is convenient when implementing the model, and has the advantage of producing a prior that is proper (note that the Jeffreys prior is improper). Equation 2 indicates that the number of white balls nw is sampled from a discrete uniform distribution. Equation 3 indicates that each token is generated by sampling one of the n balls in the world uniformly at random, and Equation 4 indicates that the color of each token is observed without noise. The generative assumptions just described can be used to define a probabilistic approach to object discovery and identification. Suppose that the observations available to a learner consist of a fully-observed feature vector g and a partially-observed label vector lobs . Object discovery and identification can be addressed by using the posterior distribution P (l|g, lobs ) to make inferences about the number of distinct objects observed and about the identity of each token. Computing the posterior distribution P (n|g, lobs ) allows the learner to make inferences about the total number of objects 2 in the world. In some cases, the learner may solve the problem of unobserved-object discovery by realizing that the world contains more objects than she has observed thus far. The next sections explore the idea that the inferences made by humans correspond approximately to the inferences of this ideal learner. Since the ideal learner allows for the possible existence of objects that have not yet been observed, we refer to our model as the open world model. Although we make no claim about the psychological mechanisms that might allow humans to approximate the predictions of the ideal learner, in practice we need some method for computing the predictions of our model. Since the domains we consider are relatively small, all results in this paper were computed by enumerating and summing over the complete set of possible worlds. 2 Experiment 1: Prior knowledge and identification The introduction described a scenario (the statue and sandwiches example) where prior knowledge appears to guide identification. Our first experiment explores a very simple instance of this idea. We consider a setting where participants observe balls that are sampled with replacement from an urn. In one condition, participants sample the same ball from the urn on four consecutive occasions and are asked to predict whether the token observed on the fifth draw is the same ball that they saw on the first draw. In a second condition participants are asked exactly the same question about the fifth token but sample four different balls on the first four draws. We expect that these different patterns of data will shape the prior beliefs that participants bring to the identification problem involving the fifth token, and that participants in the first condition will be substantially more likely to identify the fifth token as a ball that they have seen before. Although we consider an abstract setting involving balls and urns the problem we explore has some real-world counterparts. Suppose, for example, that a colleague wears the same tie to four formal dinners. Based on this evidence you might be able to estimate the total number of ties that he owns, and might guess that he is less likely to wear a new tie to the next dinner than a colleague who wore different ties to the first four dinners. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. Participants interacted with a computer interface that displayed an urn, a robotic arm and a beam of UV light. The arm randomly sampled balls from the urn, and participants were told that each ball had a unique serial number that was visible only under UV light. After some balls were sampled, the robotic arm moved them under the UV light and revealed their serial numbers before returning them to the urn. Other balls were returned directly to the urn without having their serial numbers revealed. The serial numbers were alphanumeric strings such as “QXR182”—note that these serial numbers provide no information about the total number of objects, and that our setting is therefore different from the Jeffreys tramcar problem [15]. The experiment included five within-participant conditions shown in Figure 1. The observations for each condition can be summarized by a string that indicates the number of tokens and the serial numbers of some but perhaps not all tokens. The 1 1 1 1 1 condition in Figure 1a is a case where the same ball (without loss of generality, we call it ball 1) is drawn from the urn on five consecutive occasions. The 1 2 3 4 5 condition in Figure 1b is a case where five different balls are drawn from the urn. The 1 condition in Figure 1d is a case where five draws are made, but only the serial number of the first ball is revealed. Within any of the five conditions, all of the balls had the same color (white or gray), but different colors were used across different conditions. For simplicity, all draws in Figure 1 are shown as white balls. On the second and all subsequent draws, participants were asked two questions about any token that was subsequently identified. They first indicated whether the token was likely to be the same as the ball they observed on the first draw (the ball labeled 1 in Figure 1). They then indicated whether the token was likely to be a ball that they had never seen before. Both responses were provided on a scale from 1 (very unlikely) to 7 (very likely). At the end of each condition, participants were asked to estimate the total number of balls in the urn. Twelve options were provided ranging from “exactly 1” to “exactly 12,” and a thirteenth option was labeled “more than 12.” Responses to each option were again provided on a seven point scale. Model predictions and results. The comparisons of primary interest involve the identification questions in conditions 1a and 1b. In condition 1a the open world model infers that the total number of balls is probably low, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is the same as the 3 a) b) 1 1 1 1 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 2 3 4 5 ? = (1) ?NEW = NEW BALL 1 BALL (1) NEW 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 Open world 7 5 0.66 DP mixture 7 5 0.66 PY mixture Human 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 1 1 0.66 0.66 0.33 0.33 0 0 7 13 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 1 # Balls 1 # Balls 0.66 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? d) e) 5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 13 13 9 9 9 5 5 5 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 Human 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 Open world c) 1 # Balls Figure 1: Model predictions and results for the five conditions in experiment 1. The left columns in (a) and (b) show inferences about the identification questions. In each plot, the first group of bars shows predictions about the probability that each new token is the same ball as the first ball drawn from the urn. The second group of bars shows the probability that each new token is a ball that has never been seen before. The right columns in (a) and (b) and the plots in (c) through (e) show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. All human responses are shown on the 1-7 scale used for the experiment. Model predictions are shown as probabilities (identification questions) or ranks (population size questions). first object observed. In condition 1b the model infers that the number of balls is probably high, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is probably a new ball. The rightmost charts in Figures 1a and 1b show inferences about the total number of balls and confirm that humans expect the number of balls to be low in condition 1a and high in condition 1b. Note that participants in condition 1b have solved the problem of unobserved-object discovery and inferred the existence of objects that they have never seen. The leftmost charts in 1a and 1b show responses to the identification questions, and the final bar in each group of four shows predictions about the fifth token sampled. As predicted by the model, participants in 1a become increasingly confident that each new token is the same object as the first token, but participants in 1b become increasingly confident that each new token is a new object. The increase in responses to the new ball questions in Figure 1b is replicated in conditions 2d and 2e of Experiment 2, and therefore appears to be reliable. 4 The third and fourth rows of Figures 1a and 1b show the predictions of two alternative models that are intuitively appealing but that fail to account for our results. The first is the Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture model, which was proposed by Anderson [16] as an account of human categorization. Unlike most psychological models of categorization, the DP mixture model reserves some probability mass for outcomes that have not yet been observed. The model incorporates a prior distribution over partitions—in most applications of the model these partitions organize objects into categories, but Anderson suggests that the model can also be used to organize object tokens into classes that correspond to individual objects. The DP mixture model successfully predicts that the ball 1 questions will receive higher ratings in 1a than 1b, but predicts that responses to the new ball question will be identical across these two conditions. According to this model, the probability that a new token θ corresponds to a new object is m+θ where θ is a hyperparameter and m is the number of tokens observed thus far. Note that this probability is the same regardless of the identities of the m tokens previously observed. The Pitman Yor (PY) mixture model in the fourth row is a generalization of the DP mixture model that uses a prior over partitions defined by two hyperparameters [17]. According to this model, the probability that a new token corresponds to a new object is θ+kα , where θ and α are hyperparameters m+θ and k is the number of distinct objects observed so far. The flexibility offered by a second hyperparameter allows the model to predict a difference in responses to the new ball questions across the two conditions, but the model does not account for the increasing pattern observed in condition 1b. Most settings of θ and α predict that the responses to the new ball questions will decrease in condition 1b. A non-generic setting of these hyperparameters with θ = 0 can generate the flat predictions in Figure 1, but no setting of the hyperparameters predicts the increase in the human responses. Although the PY and DP models both make predictions about the identification questions, neither model can predict the total number of balls in the urn. Both models assume that the population of balls is countably infinite, which does not seem appropriate for the tasks we consider. Figures 1c through 1d show results for three control conditions. Like condition 1a, 1c and 1d are cases where exactly one serial number is observed. Like conditions 1a and 1b, 1d and 1e are cases where exactly five tokens are observed. None of these control conditions produces results similar to conditions 1a and 1b, suggesting that methods which simply count the number of tokens or serial numbers will not account for our results. In each of the final three conditions our model predicts that the posterior distribution on the number of balls n should decay as n increases. This prediction is not consistent with our data, since most participants assigned equal ratings to all 13 options, including “exactly 12 balls” and “more than 12 balls.” The flat responses in Figures 1c through 1e appear to indicate a generic desire to express uncertainty, and suggest that our ideal learner model accounts for human responses only after several informative observations have been made. 3 Experiment 2: Object discovery and identity uncertainty Our second experiment focuses on object discovery rather than identification. We consider cases where learners make inferences about the number of objects they have seen and the total number of objects in the urn even though there is substantial uncertainty about the identities of many of the tokens observed. Our probabilistic model predicts that observations of unidentified tokens can influence inferences about the total number of objects, and our second experiment tests this prediction. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. The same participants took part in Experiments 1 and 2, and Experiment 2 was always completed after Experiment 1. Participants interacted with the same computer interface in both conditions, and the seven conditions in Experiment 2 are shown in Figure 2. Note that each condition now includes one or more gray tokens. In 2a, for example, there are four gray tokens and none of these tokens is identified. All tokens were sampled with replacement, and the condition labels in Figure 2 summarize the complete set of tokens presented in each condition. Within each condition the tokens were presented in a pseudo-random order—in 2a, for example, the gray and white tokens were interspersed with each other. Model predictions and results. The cases of most interest are the inferences about the total number of balls in conditions 2a and 2c. In both conditions participants observe exactly four white tokens and all four tokens are revealed to be the same ball. The gray tokens in each condition are never identified, but the number of these tokens varies across the conditions. Even though the identities 5 a) ?NEW = NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 7 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 7 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 # Balls c) 1 2 3 4 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 e) ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 # Balls g) 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 9 9 0.33 5 5 5 0 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) Human 7 Open world f) 1 2 3 4 7 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) # Balls (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 Human ?NEW = NEW Open world 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls d) 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 9 0.33 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 13 0.66 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 1 0.66 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) Human 7 Open world b) 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls Figure 2: Model predictions and results for the seven conditions in Experiment 2. The left columns in (a) through (e) show inferences about the identification questions, and the remaining plots show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. of the gray tokens are never revealed, the open world model can use these observations to guide its inference about the total number of balls. In 2a, the proportions of white tokens and gray tokens are equal and there appears to be only one white ball, suggesting that the total number of balls is around two. In 2c grey tokens are now three times more common, suggesting that the total number of balls is larger than two. As predicted, the human responses in Figure 2 show that the peak of the distribution in 2a shifts to the right in 2c. Note, however, that the model does not accurately predict the precise location of the peak in 2c. Some of the remaining conditions in Figure 2 serve as controls for the comparison between 2a and 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c differ in the total number of tokens observed, but condition 2b shows that 6 this difference is not the critical factor. The number of tokens observed is the same across 2b and 2c, yet the inference in 2b is more similar to the inference in 2a than in 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c also differ in the proportion of white tokens observed, but conditions 2f and 2g show that this difference is not sufficient to explain our results. The proportion of white tokens observed is the same across conditions 2a, 2f, and 2g, yet only 2a provides strong evidence that the total number of balls is low. The human inferences for 2f and 2g show the hint of an alternating pattern consistent with the inference that the total number of balls in the urn is even. Only 2 out of 12 participants generated this pattern, however, and the majority of responses are near uniform. Finally, conditions 2d and 2e replicate our finding from Experiment 1 that the identity labels play an important role. The only difference between 2a and 2e is that the four labels are distinct in the latter case, and this single difference produces a predictable divergence in human inferences about the total number of balls. 4 Experiment 3: Categorization and identity uncertainty Experiment 2 suggested that people make robust inferences about the existence and number of unobserved objects in the presence of identity uncertainty. Our final experiment explores categorization in the presence of identity uncertainty. We consider an extreme case where participants make inferences about the variability of a category even though the tokens of that category have never been identified. Method. The experiment included two between subject conditions, and 20 adults were recruited for each condition. Participants were asked to reason about a category including eggs of a given species, where eggs in the same category might vary in size. The interface used in Experiments 1 and 2 was adapted so that the urn now contained two kinds of objects: notepads and eggs. Participants were told that each notepad had a unique color and a unique label written on the front. The UV light played no role in the experiment and was removed from the interface: notepads could be identified by visual inspection, and identifying labels for the eggs were never shown. In both conditions participants observed a sequence of 16 tokens sampled from the urn. Half of the tokens were notepads and the others were eggs, and all egg tokens were identical in size. Whenever an egg was sampled, participants were told that this egg was a Kwiba egg. At the end of the condition, participants were shown a set of 11 eggs that varied in size and asked to rate the probability that each one was a Kwiba egg. Participants then made inferences about the total number of eggs and the total number of notepads in the urn. The two conditions were intended to lead to different inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. In the 4 egg condition, all items (notepad and eggs) were sampled with replacement. The 8 notepad tokens included two tokens of each of 4 notepads, suggesting that the total number of notepads was 4. Since the proportion of egg tokens and notepad tokens was equal, we expected participants to infer that the total number of eggs was roughly four. In the 1 egg condition, four notepads were observed in total, but the first three were sampled without replacement and never returned to the urn. The final notepad and the egg tokens were always sampled with replacement. After the first three notepads had been removed from the urn, the remaining notepad was sampled about half of the time. We therefore expected participants to infer that the urn probably contained a single notepad and a single egg by the end of the experiment, and that all of the eggs they had observed were tokens of a single object. Model. We can simultaneously address identification and categorization by combining the open world model with a Gaussian model of categorization. Suppose that the members of a given category (e.g. Kwiba eggs) vary along a single continuous dimension (e.g. size). We assume that the egg sizes are distributed according to a Gaussian with known mean and unknown variance σ 2 . For convenience, we assume that the mean is zero (i.e. we measure size with respect to the average) and β use the standard inverse-gamma prior on the variance: p(σ 2 ) ∝ (σ 2 )−(α+1) e− σ2 . Since we are interested only in qualitative predictions of the model, the precise values of the hyperparameters are not very important. To generate the results shown in Figure 3 we set α = 0.5 and β = 2. Before observing any eggs, the marginal distribution on sizes is p(x) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 )dσ 2 . Suppose now that we observe m random samples from the category and that each one has size zero. If m is large then these observations provide strong evidence that the variance σ 2 is small, and the posterior distribution p(x|m) will be tightly peaked around zero. If m, is small, however, then the posterior distribution will be broader. 7 2 − Category pdf (1 egg) 1 2 1 0 0 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1 = p4 (x) − p1 (x) Category pdf (4 eggs) p1 (x) p4 (x) a) Model differences 0.1 0 −0.1 −2 0 2 x (size) Human differences 12 8 10 6 4 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 −0.4 2 12 8 10 6 4 2 −2 0 2 x (size) −2 0 2 x (size) b) Number of eggs (4 eggs) Number of eggs (1 egg) c) −4 −2 0 2 4 (size) Figure 3: (a) Model predictions for Experiment 3. The first two panels show the size distributions inferred for the two conditions, and the final panel shows the difference of these distributions. The difference curve for the model rises to a peak of around 1.6 but has been truncated at 0.1. (b) Human inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. As predicted, participants in the 4 egg condition believe that the urn contains more eggs. (c) The difference of the size distributions generated by participants in each condition. The central peak is absent but otherwise the curve is qualitatively similar to the model prediction. The categorization model described so far is entirely standard, but note that our experiment considers a case where T , the observed stream of object tokens, is not sufficient to determine m, the number of distinct objects observed. We therefore use the open world model to generate a posterior distribution over m, and compute a marginal distribution over size by integrating out both m and σ 2 : p(x|T ) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 |m)p(m|T )dσ 2 dm. Figure 3a shows predictions of this “open world + Gaussian” model for the two conditions in our experiment. Note that the difference between the curves for the two conditions has the characteristic Mexican-hat shape produced by a difference of Gaussians. Results. Inferences about the total number of eggs suggested that our manipulation succeeded. Figure 3b indicates that participants in the 4 egg condition believed that they had seen more eggs than participants in the 1 egg condition. Participants in both conditions generated a size distribution for the category of Kwiba eggs, and the difference of these distributions is shown in Figure 3c. Although the magnitude of the differences is small, the shape of the difference curve is consistent with the model predictions. The x = 0 bar is the only case that diverges from the expected Mexican hat shape, and this result is probably due to a ceiling effect—80% of participants in both conditions chose the maximum possible rating for the egg with mean size (size zero), leaving little opportunity for a difference between conditions to emerge. To support the qualitative result in Figure 3c we computed the variance of the curve generated by each individual participant and tested the hypothesis that the variances were greater in the 1 egg condition than in the 4 egg condition. A Mann-Whitney test indicated that this difference was marginally significant (p < 0.1, one-sided). 5 Conclusion Parsing the world into stable and recurring objects is arguably our most basic cognitive achievement [2, 10]. This paper described a simple model of object discovery and identification and evaluated it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment confirmed that people rely on prior knowledge when solving identification problems. Our second and third experiments explored problems where the identities of many object tokens were never revealed. Despite the resulting uncertainty, we found that participants in these experiments were able to track the number of objects they had seen, to infer the existence of unobserved objects, and to learn and reason about categories. Although the tasks in our experiments were all relatively simple, future work can apply our approach to more realistic settings. For example, a straightforward extension of our model can handle problems where objects vary along multiple perceptual dimensions and where observations are corrupted by perceptual noise. Discovery and identification problems may take several different forms, but probabilistic inference can help to explain how all of these problems are solved. Acknowledgments We thank Bobby Han, Faye Han and Maureen Satyshur for running the experiments. 8 References [1] E. A. Tibbetts and J. Dale. Individual recognition: it is good to be different. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22(10):529–237, 2007. [2] W. James. Principles of psychology. Holt, New York, 1890. [3] R. M. Nosofsky. Attention, similarity, and the identification-categorization relationship. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 115:39–57, 1986. [4] F. Xu and S. Carey. Infants’ metaphysics: the case of numerical identity. Cognitive Psychology, 30:111–153, 1996. [5] L. W. Barsalou, J. Huttenlocher, and K. Lamberts. Basing categorization on individuals and events. Cognitive Psychology, 36:203–272, 1998. [6] L. J. Rips, S. Blok, and G. Newman. Tracing the identity of objects. Psychological Review, 113(1):1–30, 2006. [7] A. McCallum and B. Wellner. Conditional models of identity uncertainty with application to noun coreference. In L. K. Saul, Y. Weiss, and L. Bottou, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 905–912. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. [8] B. Milch, B. Marthi, S. Russell, D. Sontag, D. L. Ong, and A. Kolobov. BLOG: Probabilistic models with unknown objects. In Proceedings of the 19th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 1352–1359, 2005. [9] J. Bunge and M. Fitzpatrick. Estimating the number of species: a review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(421):364–373, 1993. [10] R. G. Millikan. On clear and confused ideas: an essay about substance concepts. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2000. [11] R. N. Shepard. Stimulus and response generalization: a stochastic model relating generalization to distance in psychological space. Psychometrika, 22:325–345, 1957. [12] A. M. Leslie, F. Xu, P. D. Tremoulet, and B. J. Scholl. Indexing and the object concept: developing ‘what’ and ‘where’ systems. Trends in Cognitive Science, 2(1):10–18, 1998. [13] J. D. Nichols. Capture-recapture models. Bioscience, 42(2):94–102, 1992. [14] G. Csibra and A. Volein. Infants can infer the presence of hidden objects from referential gaze information. British Journal of Developmental Psychology, 26:1–11, 2008. [15] H. Jeffreys. Theory of Probability. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1961. [16] J. R. Anderson. The adaptive nature of human categorization. Psychological Review, 98(3): 409–429, 1991. [17] J. Pitman. Combinatorial stochastic processes, 2002. Notes for Saint Flour Summer School. 9

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Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Our first experiment suggests that humans rely on prior knowledge when deciding whether an object token has been previously encountered. [sent-5, score-0.476]

2 Our second and third experiments suggest that humans can infer how many objects they have seen and can learn about categories and their properties even when they are uncertain about which tokens are instances of the same object. [sent-6, score-0.612]

3 Many machine learning approaches can handle identity uncertainty, or uncertainty about whether two tokens correspond to the same object. [sent-31, score-0.478]

4 Developmental psychologists, for example, have used displays where only one object token is visible at any time to explore whether young infants can infer how many different objects have been observed in total [4]. [sent-38, score-0.662]

5 Note, however, that object discovery can also refer to cases where learners infer the existence of objects that have never been observed. [sent-41, score-0.479]

6 We will show, however, that a simple statistical approach helps to explain how humans infer the existence of objects that they have never seen. [sent-44, score-0.351]

7 Suppose that an agent is learning about a world that contains nw white balls and n − nw gray balls. [sent-47, score-0.728]

8 Let f (oi ) indicate the color of ball oi , where each ball is white (f (oi ) = 1) or gray (f (oi ) = 0). [sent-48, score-0.564]

9 Suppose that label l(j) is a unique identifier of token j—in other words, suppose that the jth token is a token of object ol(j) . [sent-50, score-0.866]

10 Note the difference between f and g: f is a vector that specifies the color of the n balls in the world, and g is a vector that specifies the color of the object tokens observed thus far. [sent-52, score-1.02]

11 We define a probability distribution over token sequences by assuming that a world is sampled from a prior P (n, nw ) and that tokens are sampled from this world. [sent-53, score-0.887]

12 Equation 2 indicates that the number of white balls nw is sampled from a discrete uniform distribution. [sent-57, score-0.569]

13 Equation 3 indicates that each token is generated by sampling one of the n balls in the world uniformly at random, and Equation 4 indicates that the color of each token is observed without noise. [sent-58, score-1.058]

14 Object discovery and identification can be addressed by using the posterior distribution P (l|g, lobs ) to make inferences about the number of distinct objects observed and about the identity of each token. [sent-61, score-0.539]

15 Computing the posterior distribution P (n|g, lobs ) allows the learner to make inferences about the total number of objects 2 in the world. [sent-62, score-0.465]

16 In some cases, the learner may solve the problem of unobserved-object discovery by realizing that the world contains more objects than she has observed thus far. [sent-63, score-0.397]

17 The next sections explore the idea that the inferences made by humans correspond approximately to the inferences of this ideal learner. [sent-64, score-0.44]

18 Since the ideal learner allows for the possible existence of objects that have not yet been observed, we refer to our model as the open world model. [sent-65, score-0.369]

19 We consider a setting where participants observe balls that are sampled with replacement from an urn. [sent-70, score-0.713]

20 In one condition, participants sample the same ball from the urn on four consecutive occasions and are asked to predict whether the token observed on the fifth draw is the same ball that they saw on the first draw. [sent-71, score-1.082]

21 In a second condition participants are asked exactly the same question about the fifth token but sample four different balls on the first four draws. [sent-72, score-1.064]

22 We expect that these different patterns of data will shape the prior beliefs that participants bring to the identification problem involving the fifth token, and that participants in the first condition will be substantially more likely to identify the fifth token as a ball that they have seen before. [sent-73, score-1.006]

23 Although we consider an abstract setting involving balls and urns the problem we explore has some real-world counterparts. [sent-74, score-0.409]

24 The arm randomly sampled balls from the urn, and participants were told that each ball had a unique serial number that was visible only under UV light. [sent-80, score-1.021]

25 After some balls were sampled, the robotic arm moved them under the UV light and revealed their serial numbers before returning them to the urn. [sent-81, score-0.581]

26 Other balls were returned directly to the urn without having their serial numbers revealed. [sent-82, score-0.629]

27 The observations for each condition can be summarized by a string that indicates the number of tokens and the serial numbers of some but perhaps not all tokens. [sent-85, score-0.552]

28 The 1 1 1 1 1 condition in Figure 1a is a case where the same ball (without loss of generality, we call it ball 1) is drawn from the urn on five consecutive occasions. [sent-86, score-0.56]

29 The 1 2 3 4 5 condition in Figure 1b is a case where five different balls are drawn from the urn. [sent-87, score-0.479]

30 The 1 condition in Figure 1d is a case where five draws are made, but only the serial number of the first ball is revealed. [sent-88, score-0.343]

31 Within any of the five conditions, all of the balls had the same color (white or gray), but different colors were used across different conditions. [sent-89, score-0.44]

32 On the second and all subsequent draws, participants were asked two questions about any token that was subsequently identified. [sent-91, score-0.61]

33 They first indicated whether the token was likely to be the same as the ball they observed on the first draw (the ball labeled 1 in Figure 1). [sent-92, score-0.644]

34 They then indicated whether the token was likely to be a ball that they had never seen before. [sent-93, score-0.476]

35 At the end of each condition, participants were asked to estimate the total number of balls in the urn. [sent-95, score-0.737]

36 In condition 1a the open world model infers that the total number of balls is probably low, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is the same as the 3 a) b) 1 1 1 1 1 ? [sent-100, score-1.006]

37 In each plot, the first group of bars shows predictions about the probability that each new token is the same ball as the first ball drawn from the urn. [sent-150, score-0.678]

38 The second group of bars shows the probability that each new token is a ball that has never been seen before. [sent-151, score-0.476]

39 The right columns in (a) and (b) and the plots in (c) through (e) show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. [sent-152, score-0.646]

40 In condition 1b the model infers that the number of balls is probably high, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is probably a new ball. [sent-156, score-0.876]

41 The rightmost charts in Figures 1a and 1b show inferences about the total number of balls and confirm that humans expect the number of balls to be low in condition 1a and high in condition 1b. [sent-157, score-1.273]

42 Note that participants in condition 1b have solved the problem of unobserved-object discovery and inferred the existence of objects that they have never seen. [sent-158, score-0.615]

43 The leftmost charts in 1a and 1b show responses to the identification questions, and the final bar in each group of four shows predictions about the fifth token sampled. [sent-159, score-0.428]

44 As predicted by the model, participants in 1a become increasingly confident that each new token is the same object as the first token, but participants in 1b become increasingly confident that each new token is a new object. [sent-160, score-1.127]

45 The increase in responses to the new ball questions in Figure 1b is replicated in conditions 2d and 2e of Experiment 2, and therefore appears to be reliable. [sent-161, score-0.394]

46 The model incorporates a prior distribution over partitions—in most applications of the model these partitions organize objects into categories, but Anderson suggests that the model can also be used to organize object tokens into classes that correspond to individual objects. [sent-165, score-0.723]

47 The DP mixture model successfully predicts that the ball 1 questions will receive higher ratings in 1a than 1b, but predicts that responses to the new ball question will be identical across these two conditions. [sent-166, score-0.559]

48 According to this model, the probability that a new token θ corresponds to a new object is m+θ where θ is a hyperparameter and m is the number of tokens observed thus far. [sent-167, score-0.767]

49 Note that this probability is the same regardless of the identities of the m tokens previously observed. [sent-168, score-0.432]

50 According to this model, the probability that a new token corresponds to a new object is θ+kα , where θ and α are hyperparameters m+θ and k is the number of distinct objects observed so far. [sent-170, score-0.523]

51 The flexibility offered by a second hyperparameter allows the model to predict a difference in responses to the new ball questions across the two conditions, but the model does not account for the increasing pattern observed in condition 1b. [sent-171, score-0.454]

52 Most settings of θ and α predict that the responses to the new ball questions will decrease in condition 1b. [sent-172, score-0.39]

53 Although the PY and DP models both make predictions about the identification questions, neither model can predict the total number of balls in the urn. [sent-174, score-0.52]

54 Both models assume that the population of balls is countably infinite, which does not seem appropriate for the tasks we consider. [sent-175, score-0.409]

55 Like conditions 1a and 1b, 1d and 1e are cases where exactly five tokens are observed. [sent-178, score-0.464]

56 None of these control conditions produces results similar to conditions 1a and 1b, suggesting that methods which simply count the number of tokens or serial numbers will not account for our results. [sent-179, score-0.655]

57 In each of the final three conditions our model predicts that the posterior distribution on the number of balls n should decay as n increases. [sent-180, score-0.512]

58 3 Experiment 2: Object discovery and identity uncertainty Our second experiment focuses on object discovery rather than identification. [sent-183, score-0.429]

59 We consider cases where learners make inferences about the number of objects they have seen and the total number of objects in the urn even though there is substantial uncertainty about the identities of many of the tokens observed. [sent-184, score-1.101]

60 Our probabilistic model predicts that observations of unidentified tokens can influence inferences about the total number of objects, and our second experiment tests this prediction. [sent-185, score-0.706]

61 In 2a, for example, there are four gray tokens and none of these tokens is identified. [sent-191, score-0.862]

62 All tokens were sampled with replacement, and the condition labels in Figure 2 summarize the complete set of tokens presented in each condition. [sent-192, score-0.889]

63 Within each condition the tokens were presented in a pseudo-random order—in 2a, for example, the gray and white tokens were interspersed with each other. [sent-193, score-0.972]

64 The cases of most interest are the inferences about the total number of balls in conditions 2a and 2c. [sent-195, score-0.72]

65 In both conditions participants observe exactly four white tokens and all four tokens are revealed to be the same ball. [sent-196, score-1.235]

66 The gray tokens in each condition are never identified, but the number of these tokens varies across the conditions. [sent-197, score-0.952]

67 The left columns in (a) through (e) show inferences about the identification questions, and the remaining plots show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. [sent-271, score-0.839]

68 of the gray tokens are never revealed, the open world model can use these observations to guide its inference about the total number of balls. [sent-272, score-0.682]

69 In 2a, the proportions of white tokens and gray tokens are equal and there appears to be only one white ball, suggesting that the total number of balls is around two. [sent-273, score-1.446]

70 In 2c grey tokens are now three times more common, suggesting that the total number of balls is larger than two. [sent-274, score-0.868]

71 Conditions 2a and 2c differ in the total number of tokens observed, but condition 2b shows that 6 this difference is not the critical factor. [sent-278, score-0.535]

72 The number of tokens observed is the same across 2b and 2c, yet the inference in 2b is more similar to the inference in 2a than in 2c. [sent-279, score-0.423]

73 Conditions 2a and 2c also differ in the proportion of white tokens observed, but conditions 2f and 2g show that this difference is not sufficient to explain our results. [sent-280, score-0.6]

74 The proportion of white tokens observed is the same across conditions 2a, 2f, and 2g, yet only 2a provides strong evidence that the total number of balls is low. [sent-281, score-1.016]

75 The human inferences for 2f and 2g show the hint of an alternating pattern consistent with the inference that the total number of balls in the urn is even. [sent-282, score-0.829]

76 The only difference between 2a and 2e is that the four labels are distinct in the latter case, and this single difference produces a predictable divergence in human inferences about the total number of balls. [sent-285, score-0.38]

77 4 Experiment 3: Categorization and identity uncertainty Experiment 2 suggested that people make robust inferences about the existence and number of unobserved objects in the presence of identity uncertainty. [sent-286, score-0.491]

78 We consider an extreme case where participants make inferences about the variability of a category even though the tokens of that category have never been identified. [sent-288, score-0.972]

79 Participants were asked to reason about a category including eggs of a given species, where eggs in the same category might vary in size. [sent-291, score-0.801]

80 The UV light played no role in the experiment and was removed from the interface: notepads could be identified by visual inspection, and identifying labels for the eggs were never shown. [sent-294, score-0.552]

81 In both conditions participants observed a sequence of 16 tokens sampled from the urn. [sent-295, score-0.775]

82 Half of the tokens were notepads and the others were eggs, and all egg tokens were identical in size. [sent-296, score-1.187]

83 Whenever an egg was sampled, participants were told that this egg was a Kwiba egg. [sent-297, score-0.824]

84 At the end of the condition, participants were shown a set of 11 eggs that varied in size and asked to rate the probability that each one was a Kwiba egg. [sent-298, score-0.61]

85 Participants then made inferences about the total number of eggs and the total number of notepads in the urn. [sent-299, score-0.737]

86 The two conditions were intended to lead to different inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. [sent-300, score-0.637]

87 The 8 notepad tokens included two tokens of each of 4 notepads, suggesting that the total number of notepads was 4. [sent-302, score-1.093]

88 Since the proportion of egg tokens and notepad tokens was equal, we expected participants to infer that the total number of eggs was roughly four. [sent-303, score-1.83]

89 In the 1 egg condition, four notepads were observed in total, but the first three were sampled without replacement and never returned to the urn. [sent-304, score-0.577]

90 The final notepad and the egg tokens were always sampled with replacement. [sent-305, score-0.82]

91 We therefore expected participants to infer that the urn probably contained a single notepad and a single egg by the end of the experiment, and that all of the eggs they had observed were tokens of a single object. [sent-307, score-1.617]

92 4 2 12 8 10 6 4 2 −2 0 2 x (size) −2 0 2 x (size) b) Number of eggs (4 eggs) Number of eggs (1 egg) c) −4 −2 0 2 4 (size) Figure 3: (a) Model predictions for Experiment 3. [sent-332, score-0.719]

93 (b) Human inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. [sent-337, score-0.563]

94 As predicted, participants in the 4 egg condition believe that the urn contains more eggs. [sent-338, score-0.714]

95 The categorization model described so far is entirely standard, but note that our experiment considers a case where T , the observed stream of object tokens, is not sufficient to determine m, the number of distinct objects observed. [sent-341, score-0.346]

96 Inferences about the total number of eggs suggested that our manipulation succeeded. [sent-346, score-0.37]

97 Figure 3b indicates that participants in the 4 egg condition believed that they had seen more eggs than participants in the 1 egg condition. [sent-347, score-1.428]

98 To support the qualitative result in Figure 3c we computed the variance of the curve generated by each individual participant and tested the hypothesis that the variances were greater in the 1 egg condition than in the 4 egg condition. [sent-351, score-0.624]

99 Our second and third experiments explored problems where the identities of many object tokens were never revealed. [sent-357, score-0.573]

100 Despite the resulting uncertainty, we found that participants in these experiments were able to track the number of objects they had seen, to infer the existence of unobserved objects, and to learn and reason about categories. [sent-358, score-0.451]


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same-paper 1 1.0 115 nips-2009-Individuation, Identification and Object Discovery

Author: Charles Kemp, Alan Jern, Fei Xu

Abstract: Humans are typically able to infer how many objects their environment contains and to recognize when the same object is encountered twice. We present a simple statistical model that helps to explain these abilities and evaluate it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment suggests that humans rely on prior knowledge when deciding whether an object token has been previously encountered. Our second and third experiments suggest that humans can infer how many objects they have seen and can learn about categories and their properties even when they are uncertain about which tokens are instances of the same object. From an early age, humans and other animals [1] appear to organize the flux of experience into a series of encounters with discrete and persisting objects. Consider, for example, a young child who grows up in a home with two dogs. At a relatively early age the child will solve the problem of object discovery and will realize that her encounters with dogs correspond to views of two individuals rather than one or three. The child will also solve the problem of identification, and will be able to reliably identify an individual (e.g. Fido) each time it is encountered. This paper presents a Bayesian approach that helps to explain both object discovery and identification. Bayesian models are appealing in part because they help to explain how inferences are guided by prior knowledge. Imagine, for example, that you see some photographs taken by your friends Alice and Bob. The first shot shows Alice sitting next to a large statue and eating a sandwich, and the second is similar but features Bob rather than Alice. The statues in each photograph look identical, and probably you will conclude that the two photographs are representations of the same statue. The sandwiches in the photographs also look identical, but probably you will conclude that the photographs show different sandwiches. The prior knowledge that contributes to these inferences appears rather complex, but we will explore some much simpler cases where prior knowledge guides identification. A second advantage of Bayesian models is that they help to explain how learners cope with uncertainty. In some cases a learner may solve the problem of object discovery but should maintain uncertainty when faced with identification problems. For example, I may be quite certain that I have met eight different individuals at a dinner party, even if I am unable to distinguish between two guests who are identical twins. In other cases a learner may need to reason about several related problems even if there is no definitive solution to any one of them. Consider, for example, a young child who must simultaneously discover which objects her world contains (e.g. Mother, Father, Fido, and Rex) and organize them into categories (e.g. people and dogs). Many accounts of categorization seem to implicitly assume that the problem of identification must be solved before categorization can begin, but we will see that a probabilistic approach can address both problems simultaneously. Identification and object discovery have been discussed by researchers from several disciplines, including psychology [2, 3, 4, 5, 6], machine learning [7, 8], statistics [9], and philosophy [10]. Many machine learning approaches can handle identity uncertainty, or uncertainty about whether two tokens correspond to the same object. Some approaches such such as BLOG [8] are able in addition to handle problems where the number of objects is not specified in advance. We propose 1 that some of these approaches can help to explain human learning, and this paper uses a simple BLOG-style approach [8] to account for human inferences. There are several existing psychological models of identification, and the work of Shepard [11], Nosofsky [3] and colleagues is probably the most prominent. Models in this tradition usually focus on problems where the set of objects is specified in advance and where identity uncertainty arises as a result of perceptual noise. In contrast, we focus on problems where the number of objects must be inferred and where identity uncertainty arises from partial observability rather than noise. A separate psychological tradition focuses on problems where the number of objects is not fixed in advance. Developmental psychologists, for example, have used displays where only one object token is visible at any time to explore whether young infants can infer how many different objects have been observed in total [4]. Our work emphasizes some of the same themes as this developmental research, but we go beyond previous work in this area by presenting and evaluating a computational approach to object identification and discovery. The problem of deciding how many objects have been observed is sometimes called individuation [12] but here we treat individuation as a special case of object discovery. Note, however, that object discovery can also refer to cases where learners infer the existence of objects that have never been observed. Unobserved-object discovery has received relatively little attention in the psychological literature, but is addressed by statistical models including including species-sampling models [9] and capture-recapture models [13]. Simple statistical models of this kind will not address some of the most compelling examples of unobserved-object discovery, such as the discovery of the planet Neptune, or the ability to infer the existence of a hidden object by following another person’s gaze [14]. We will show, however, that a simple statistical approach helps to explain how humans infer the existence of objects that they have never seen. 1 A probabilistic account of object discovery and identification Object discovery and identification may depend on many kinds of observations and may be supported by many kinds of prior knowledge. This paper considers a very simple setting where these problems can be explored. Suppose that an agent is learning about a world that contains nw white balls and n − nw gray balls. Let f (oi ) indicate the color of ball oi , where each ball is white (f (oi ) = 1) or gray (f (oi ) = 0). An agent learns about the world by observing a sequence of object tokens. Suppose that label l(j) is a unique identifier of token j—in other words, suppose that the jth token is a token of object ol(j) . Suppose also that the jth token is observed to have feature value g(j). Note the difference between f and g: f is a vector that specifies the color of the n balls in the world, and g is a vector that specifies the color of the object tokens observed thus far. We define a probability distribution over token sequences by assuming that a world is sampled from a prior P (n, nw ) and that tokens are sampled from this world. The full generative model is: P (n) ∝ 1 n 0 if n ≤ 1000 otherwise nw | n ∼ Uniform(0, n) l(j) | n ∼ Uniform(1, n) g(j) = f (ol(j) ) (1) (2) (3) (4) A prior often used for inferences about a population of unknown size is the scale-invariant Jeffreys 1 prior P (n) = n [15]. We follow this standard approach here but truncate at n = 1000. Choosing some upper bound is convenient when implementing the model, and has the advantage of producing a prior that is proper (note that the Jeffreys prior is improper). Equation 2 indicates that the number of white balls nw is sampled from a discrete uniform distribution. Equation 3 indicates that each token is generated by sampling one of the n balls in the world uniformly at random, and Equation 4 indicates that the color of each token is observed without noise. The generative assumptions just described can be used to define a probabilistic approach to object discovery and identification. Suppose that the observations available to a learner consist of a fully-observed feature vector g and a partially-observed label vector lobs . Object discovery and identification can be addressed by using the posterior distribution P (l|g, lobs ) to make inferences about the number of distinct objects observed and about the identity of each token. Computing the posterior distribution P (n|g, lobs ) allows the learner to make inferences about the total number of objects 2 in the world. In some cases, the learner may solve the problem of unobserved-object discovery by realizing that the world contains more objects than she has observed thus far. The next sections explore the idea that the inferences made by humans correspond approximately to the inferences of this ideal learner. Since the ideal learner allows for the possible existence of objects that have not yet been observed, we refer to our model as the open world model. Although we make no claim about the psychological mechanisms that might allow humans to approximate the predictions of the ideal learner, in practice we need some method for computing the predictions of our model. Since the domains we consider are relatively small, all results in this paper were computed by enumerating and summing over the complete set of possible worlds. 2 Experiment 1: Prior knowledge and identification The introduction described a scenario (the statue and sandwiches example) where prior knowledge appears to guide identification. Our first experiment explores a very simple instance of this idea. We consider a setting where participants observe balls that are sampled with replacement from an urn. In one condition, participants sample the same ball from the urn on four consecutive occasions and are asked to predict whether the token observed on the fifth draw is the same ball that they saw on the first draw. In a second condition participants are asked exactly the same question about the fifth token but sample four different balls on the first four draws. We expect that these different patterns of data will shape the prior beliefs that participants bring to the identification problem involving the fifth token, and that participants in the first condition will be substantially more likely to identify the fifth token as a ball that they have seen before. Although we consider an abstract setting involving balls and urns the problem we explore has some real-world counterparts. Suppose, for example, that a colleague wears the same tie to four formal dinners. Based on this evidence you might be able to estimate the total number of ties that he owns, and might guess that he is less likely to wear a new tie to the next dinner than a colleague who wore different ties to the first four dinners. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. Participants interacted with a computer interface that displayed an urn, a robotic arm and a beam of UV light. The arm randomly sampled balls from the urn, and participants were told that each ball had a unique serial number that was visible only under UV light. After some balls were sampled, the robotic arm moved them under the UV light and revealed their serial numbers before returning them to the urn. Other balls were returned directly to the urn without having their serial numbers revealed. The serial numbers were alphanumeric strings such as “QXR182”—note that these serial numbers provide no information about the total number of objects, and that our setting is therefore different from the Jeffreys tramcar problem [15]. The experiment included five within-participant conditions shown in Figure 1. The observations for each condition can be summarized by a string that indicates the number of tokens and the serial numbers of some but perhaps not all tokens. The 1 1 1 1 1 condition in Figure 1a is a case where the same ball (without loss of generality, we call it ball 1) is drawn from the urn on five consecutive occasions. The 1 2 3 4 5 condition in Figure 1b is a case where five different balls are drawn from the urn. The 1 condition in Figure 1d is a case where five draws are made, but only the serial number of the first ball is revealed. Within any of the five conditions, all of the balls had the same color (white or gray), but different colors were used across different conditions. For simplicity, all draws in Figure 1 are shown as white balls. On the second and all subsequent draws, participants were asked two questions about any token that was subsequently identified. They first indicated whether the token was likely to be the same as the ball they observed on the first draw (the ball labeled 1 in Figure 1). They then indicated whether the token was likely to be a ball that they had never seen before. Both responses were provided on a scale from 1 (very unlikely) to 7 (very likely). At the end of each condition, participants were asked to estimate the total number of balls in the urn. Twelve options were provided ranging from “exactly 1” to “exactly 12,” and a thirteenth option was labeled “more than 12.” Responses to each option were again provided on a seven point scale. Model predictions and results. The comparisons of primary interest involve the identification questions in conditions 1a and 1b. In condition 1a the open world model infers that the total number of balls is probably low, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is the same as the 3 a) b) 1 1 1 1 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 2 3 4 5 ? = (1) ?NEW = NEW BALL 1 BALL (1) NEW 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 Open world 7 5 0.66 DP mixture 7 5 0.66 PY mixture Human 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 1 1 0.66 0.66 0.33 0.33 0 0 7 13 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 1 # Balls 1 # Balls 0.66 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? d) e) 5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 13 13 9 9 9 5 5 5 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 Human 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 Open world c) 1 # Balls Figure 1: Model predictions and results for the five conditions in experiment 1. The left columns in (a) and (b) show inferences about the identification questions. In each plot, the first group of bars shows predictions about the probability that each new token is the same ball as the first ball drawn from the urn. The second group of bars shows the probability that each new token is a ball that has never been seen before. The right columns in (a) and (b) and the plots in (c) through (e) show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. All human responses are shown on the 1-7 scale used for the experiment. Model predictions are shown as probabilities (identification questions) or ranks (population size questions). first object observed. In condition 1b the model infers that the number of balls is probably high, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is probably a new ball. The rightmost charts in Figures 1a and 1b show inferences about the total number of balls and confirm that humans expect the number of balls to be low in condition 1a and high in condition 1b. Note that participants in condition 1b have solved the problem of unobserved-object discovery and inferred the existence of objects that they have never seen. The leftmost charts in 1a and 1b show responses to the identification questions, and the final bar in each group of four shows predictions about the fifth token sampled. As predicted by the model, participants in 1a become increasingly confident that each new token is the same object as the first token, but participants in 1b become increasingly confident that each new token is a new object. The increase in responses to the new ball questions in Figure 1b is replicated in conditions 2d and 2e of Experiment 2, and therefore appears to be reliable. 4 The third and fourth rows of Figures 1a and 1b show the predictions of two alternative models that are intuitively appealing but that fail to account for our results. The first is the Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture model, which was proposed by Anderson [16] as an account of human categorization. Unlike most psychological models of categorization, the DP mixture model reserves some probability mass for outcomes that have not yet been observed. The model incorporates a prior distribution over partitions—in most applications of the model these partitions organize objects into categories, but Anderson suggests that the model can also be used to organize object tokens into classes that correspond to individual objects. The DP mixture model successfully predicts that the ball 1 questions will receive higher ratings in 1a than 1b, but predicts that responses to the new ball question will be identical across these two conditions. According to this model, the probability that a new token θ corresponds to a new object is m+θ where θ is a hyperparameter and m is the number of tokens observed thus far. Note that this probability is the same regardless of the identities of the m tokens previously observed. The Pitman Yor (PY) mixture model in the fourth row is a generalization of the DP mixture model that uses a prior over partitions defined by two hyperparameters [17]. According to this model, the probability that a new token corresponds to a new object is θ+kα , where θ and α are hyperparameters m+θ and k is the number of distinct objects observed so far. The flexibility offered by a second hyperparameter allows the model to predict a difference in responses to the new ball questions across the two conditions, but the model does not account for the increasing pattern observed in condition 1b. Most settings of θ and α predict that the responses to the new ball questions will decrease in condition 1b. A non-generic setting of these hyperparameters with θ = 0 can generate the flat predictions in Figure 1, but no setting of the hyperparameters predicts the increase in the human responses. Although the PY and DP models both make predictions about the identification questions, neither model can predict the total number of balls in the urn. Both models assume that the population of balls is countably infinite, which does not seem appropriate for the tasks we consider. Figures 1c through 1d show results for three control conditions. Like condition 1a, 1c and 1d are cases where exactly one serial number is observed. Like conditions 1a and 1b, 1d and 1e are cases where exactly five tokens are observed. None of these control conditions produces results similar to conditions 1a and 1b, suggesting that methods which simply count the number of tokens or serial numbers will not account for our results. In each of the final three conditions our model predicts that the posterior distribution on the number of balls n should decay as n increases. This prediction is not consistent with our data, since most participants assigned equal ratings to all 13 options, including “exactly 12 balls” and “more than 12 balls.” The flat responses in Figures 1c through 1e appear to indicate a generic desire to express uncertainty, and suggest that our ideal learner model accounts for human responses only after several informative observations have been made. 3 Experiment 2: Object discovery and identity uncertainty Our second experiment focuses on object discovery rather than identification. We consider cases where learners make inferences about the number of objects they have seen and the total number of objects in the urn even though there is substantial uncertainty about the identities of many of the tokens observed. Our probabilistic model predicts that observations of unidentified tokens can influence inferences about the total number of objects, and our second experiment tests this prediction. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. The same participants took part in Experiments 1 and 2, and Experiment 2 was always completed after Experiment 1. Participants interacted with the same computer interface in both conditions, and the seven conditions in Experiment 2 are shown in Figure 2. Note that each condition now includes one or more gray tokens. In 2a, for example, there are four gray tokens and none of these tokens is identified. All tokens were sampled with replacement, and the condition labels in Figure 2 summarize the complete set of tokens presented in each condition. Within each condition the tokens were presented in a pseudo-random order—in 2a, for example, the gray and white tokens were interspersed with each other. Model predictions and results. The cases of most interest are the inferences about the total number of balls in conditions 2a and 2c. In both conditions participants observe exactly four white tokens and all four tokens are revealed to be the same ball. The gray tokens in each condition are never identified, but the number of these tokens varies across the conditions. Even though the identities 5 a) ?NEW = NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 7 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 7 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 # Balls c) 1 2 3 4 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 e) ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 # Balls g) 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 9 9 0.33 5 5 5 0 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) Human 7 Open world f) 1 2 3 4 7 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) # Balls (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 Human ?NEW = NEW Open world 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls d) 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 9 0.33 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 13 0.66 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 1 0.66 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) Human 7 Open world b) 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls Figure 2: Model predictions and results for the seven conditions in Experiment 2. The left columns in (a) through (e) show inferences about the identification questions, and the remaining plots show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. of the gray tokens are never revealed, the open world model can use these observations to guide its inference about the total number of balls. In 2a, the proportions of white tokens and gray tokens are equal and there appears to be only one white ball, suggesting that the total number of balls is around two. In 2c grey tokens are now three times more common, suggesting that the total number of balls is larger than two. As predicted, the human responses in Figure 2 show that the peak of the distribution in 2a shifts to the right in 2c. Note, however, that the model does not accurately predict the precise location of the peak in 2c. Some of the remaining conditions in Figure 2 serve as controls for the comparison between 2a and 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c differ in the total number of tokens observed, but condition 2b shows that 6 this difference is not the critical factor. The number of tokens observed is the same across 2b and 2c, yet the inference in 2b is more similar to the inference in 2a than in 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c also differ in the proportion of white tokens observed, but conditions 2f and 2g show that this difference is not sufficient to explain our results. The proportion of white tokens observed is the same across conditions 2a, 2f, and 2g, yet only 2a provides strong evidence that the total number of balls is low. The human inferences for 2f and 2g show the hint of an alternating pattern consistent with the inference that the total number of balls in the urn is even. Only 2 out of 12 participants generated this pattern, however, and the majority of responses are near uniform. Finally, conditions 2d and 2e replicate our finding from Experiment 1 that the identity labels play an important role. The only difference between 2a and 2e is that the four labels are distinct in the latter case, and this single difference produces a predictable divergence in human inferences about the total number of balls. 4 Experiment 3: Categorization and identity uncertainty Experiment 2 suggested that people make robust inferences about the existence and number of unobserved objects in the presence of identity uncertainty. Our final experiment explores categorization in the presence of identity uncertainty. We consider an extreme case where participants make inferences about the variability of a category even though the tokens of that category have never been identified. Method. The experiment included two between subject conditions, and 20 adults were recruited for each condition. Participants were asked to reason about a category including eggs of a given species, where eggs in the same category might vary in size. The interface used in Experiments 1 and 2 was adapted so that the urn now contained two kinds of objects: notepads and eggs. Participants were told that each notepad had a unique color and a unique label written on the front. The UV light played no role in the experiment and was removed from the interface: notepads could be identified by visual inspection, and identifying labels for the eggs were never shown. In both conditions participants observed a sequence of 16 tokens sampled from the urn. Half of the tokens were notepads and the others were eggs, and all egg tokens were identical in size. Whenever an egg was sampled, participants were told that this egg was a Kwiba egg. At the end of the condition, participants were shown a set of 11 eggs that varied in size and asked to rate the probability that each one was a Kwiba egg. Participants then made inferences about the total number of eggs and the total number of notepads in the urn. The two conditions were intended to lead to different inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. In the 4 egg condition, all items (notepad and eggs) were sampled with replacement. The 8 notepad tokens included two tokens of each of 4 notepads, suggesting that the total number of notepads was 4. Since the proportion of egg tokens and notepad tokens was equal, we expected participants to infer that the total number of eggs was roughly four. In the 1 egg condition, four notepads were observed in total, but the first three were sampled without replacement and never returned to the urn. The final notepad and the egg tokens were always sampled with replacement. After the first three notepads had been removed from the urn, the remaining notepad was sampled about half of the time. We therefore expected participants to infer that the urn probably contained a single notepad and a single egg by the end of the experiment, and that all of the eggs they had observed were tokens of a single object. Model. We can simultaneously address identification and categorization by combining the open world model with a Gaussian model of categorization. Suppose that the members of a given category (e.g. Kwiba eggs) vary along a single continuous dimension (e.g. size). We assume that the egg sizes are distributed according to a Gaussian with known mean and unknown variance σ 2 . For convenience, we assume that the mean is zero (i.e. we measure size with respect to the average) and β use the standard inverse-gamma prior on the variance: p(σ 2 ) ∝ (σ 2 )−(α+1) e− σ2 . Since we are interested only in qualitative predictions of the model, the precise values of the hyperparameters are not very important. To generate the results shown in Figure 3 we set α = 0.5 and β = 2. Before observing any eggs, the marginal distribution on sizes is p(x) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 )dσ 2 . Suppose now that we observe m random samples from the category and that each one has size zero. If m is large then these observations provide strong evidence that the variance σ 2 is small, and the posterior distribution p(x|m) will be tightly peaked around zero. If m, is small, however, then the posterior distribution will be broader. 7 2 − Category pdf (1 egg) 1 2 1 0 0 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1 = p4 (x) − p1 (x) Category pdf (4 eggs) p1 (x) p4 (x) a) Model differences 0.1 0 −0.1 −2 0 2 x (size) Human differences 12 8 10 6 4 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 −0.4 2 12 8 10 6 4 2 −2 0 2 x (size) −2 0 2 x (size) b) Number of eggs (4 eggs) Number of eggs (1 egg) c) −4 −2 0 2 4 (size) Figure 3: (a) Model predictions for Experiment 3. The first two panels show the size distributions inferred for the two conditions, and the final panel shows the difference of these distributions. The difference curve for the model rises to a peak of around 1.6 but has been truncated at 0.1. (b) Human inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. As predicted, participants in the 4 egg condition believe that the urn contains more eggs. (c) The difference of the size distributions generated by participants in each condition. The central peak is absent but otherwise the curve is qualitatively similar to the model prediction. The categorization model described so far is entirely standard, but note that our experiment considers a case where T , the observed stream of object tokens, is not sufficient to determine m, the number of distinct objects observed. We therefore use the open world model to generate a posterior distribution over m, and compute a marginal distribution over size by integrating out both m and σ 2 : p(x|T ) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 |m)p(m|T )dσ 2 dm. Figure 3a shows predictions of this “open world + Gaussian” model for the two conditions in our experiment. Note that the difference between the curves for the two conditions has the characteristic Mexican-hat shape produced by a difference of Gaussians. Results. Inferences about the total number of eggs suggested that our manipulation succeeded. Figure 3b indicates that participants in the 4 egg condition believed that they had seen more eggs than participants in the 1 egg condition. Participants in both conditions generated a size distribution for the category of Kwiba eggs, and the difference of these distributions is shown in Figure 3c. Although the magnitude of the differences is small, the shape of the difference curve is consistent with the model predictions. The x = 0 bar is the only case that diverges from the expected Mexican hat shape, and this result is probably due to a ceiling effect—80% of participants in both conditions chose the maximum possible rating for the egg with mean size (size zero), leaving little opportunity for a difference between conditions to emerge. To support the qualitative result in Figure 3c we computed the variance of the curve generated by each individual participant and tested the hypothesis that the variances were greater in the 1 egg condition than in the 4 egg condition. A Mann-Whitney test indicated that this difference was marginally significant (p < 0.1, one-sided). 5 Conclusion Parsing the world into stable and recurring objects is arguably our most basic cognitive achievement [2, 10]. This paper described a simple model of object discovery and identification and evaluated it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment confirmed that people rely on prior knowledge when solving identification problems. Our second and third experiments explored problems where the identities of many object tokens were never revealed. Despite the resulting uncertainty, we found that participants in these experiments were able to track the number of objects they had seen, to infer the existence of unobserved objects, and to learn and reason about categories. Although the tasks in our experiments were all relatively simple, future work can apply our approach to more realistic settings. For example, a straightforward extension of our model can handle problems where objects vary along multiple perceptual dimensions and where observations are corrupted by perceptual noise. Discovery and identification problems may take several different forms, but probabilistic inference can help to explain how all of these problems are solved. Acknowledgments We thank Bobby Han, Faye Han and Maureen Satyshur for running the experiments. 8 References [1] E. A. Tibbetts and J. Dale. Individual recognition: it is good to be different. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22(10):529–237, 2007. [2] W. James. Principles of psychology. Holt, New York, 1890. [3] R. M. Nosofsky. Attention, similarity, and the identification-categorization relationship. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 115:39–57, 1986. [4] F. Xu and S. Carey. Infants’ metaphysics: the case of numerical identity. Cognitive Psychology, 30:111–153, 1996. [5] L. W. Barsalou, J. Huttenlocher, and K. Lamberts. Basing categorization on individuals and events. Cognitive Psychology, 36:203–272, 1998. [6] L. J. Rips, S. Blok, and G. Newman. Tracing the identity of objects. Psychological Review, 113(1):1–30, 2006. [7] A. McCallum and B. Wellner. Conditional models of identity uncertainty with application to noun coreference. In L. K. Saul, Y. Weiss, and L. Bottou, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 905–912. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. [8] B. Milch, B. Marthi, S. Russell, D. Sontag, D. L. Ong, and A. Kolobov. BLOG: Probabilistic models with unknown objects. In Proceedings of the 19th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 1352–1359, 2005. [9] J. Bunge and M. Fitzpatrick. Estimating the number of species: a review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(421):364–373, 1993. [10] R. G. Millikan. On clear and confused ideas: an essay about substance concepts. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2000. [11] R. N. Shepard. Stimulus and response generalization: a stochastic model relating generalization to distance in psychological space. Psychometrika, 22:325–345, 1957. [12] A. M. Leslie, F. Xu, P. D. Tremoulet, and B. J. Scholl. Indexing and the object concept: developing ‘what’ and ‘where’ systems. Trends in Cognitive Science, 2(1):10–18, 1998. [13] J. D. Nichols. Capture-recapture models. Bioscience, 42(2):94–102, 1992. [14] G. Csibra and A. Volein. Infants can infer the presence of hidden objects from referential gaze information. British Journal of Developmental Psychology, 26:1–11, 2008. [15] H. Jeffreys. Theory of Probability. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1961. [16] J. R. Anderson. The adaptive nature of human categorization. Psychological Review, 98(3): 409–429, 1991. [17] J. Pitman. Combinatorial stochastic processes, 2002. Notes for Saint Flour Summer School. 9

2 0.11682653 109 nips-2009-Hierarchical Learning of Dimensional Biases in Human Categorization

Author: Adam Sanborn, Nick Chater, Katherine A. Heller

Abstract: Existing models of categorization typically represent to-be-classified items as points in a multidimensional space. While from a mathematical point of view, an infinite number of basis sets can be used to represent points in this space, the choice of basis set is psychologically crucial. People generally choose the same basis dimensions – and have a strong preference to generalize along the axes of these dimensions, but not “diagonally”. What makes some choices of dimension special? We explore the idea that the dimensions used by people echo the natural variation in the environment. Specifically, we present a rational model that does not assume dimensions, but learns the same type of dimensional generalizations that people display. This bias is shaped by exposing the model to many categories with a structure hypothesized to be like those which children encounter. The learning behaviour of the model captures the developmental shift from roughly “isotropic” for children to the axis-aligned generalization that adults show. 1

3 0.11463017 21 nips-2009-Abstraction and Relational learning

Author: Charles Kemp, Alan Jern

Abstract: Most models of categorization learn categories defined by characteristic features but some categories are described more naturally in terms of relations. We present a generative model that helps to explain how relational categories are learned and used. Our model learns abstract schemata that specify the relational similarities shared by instances of a category, and our emphasis on abstraction departs from previous theoretical proposals that focus instead on comparison of concrete instances. Our first experiment suggests that abstraction can help to explain some of the findings that have previously been used to support comparison-based approaches. Our second experiment focuses on one-shot schema learning, a problem that raises challenges for comparison-based approaches but is handled naturally by our abstraction-based account. Categories such as family, sonnet, above, betray, and imitate differ in many respects but all of them depend critically on relational information. Members of a family are typically related by blood or marriage, and the lines that make up a sonnet must rhyme with each other according to a certain pattern. A pair of objects will demonstrate “aboveness” only if a certain spatial relationship is present, and an event will qualify as an instance of betrayal or imitation only if its participants relate to each other in certain ways. All of the cases just described are examples of relational categories. This paper develops a computational approach that helps to explain how simple relational categories are acquired. Our approach highlights the role of abstraction in relational learning. Given several instances of a relational category, it is often possible to infer an abstract representation that captures what the instances have in common. We refer to these abstract representations as schemata, although others may prefer to call them rules or theories. For example, a sonnet schema might specify the number of lines that a sonnet should include and the rhyming pattern that the lines should follow. Once a schema has been acquired it can support several kinds of inferences. A schema can be used to make predictions about hidden aspects of the examples already observed—if the final word in a sonnet is illegible, the rhyming pattern can help to predict the identity of this word. A schema can be used to decide whether new examples (e.g. new poems) qualify as members of the category. Finally, a schema can be used to generate novel examples of a category (e.g. novel sonnets). Most researchers would agree that abstraction plays some role in relational learning, but Gentner [1] and other psychologists have emphasized the role of comparison instead [2, 3]. Given one example of a sonnet and the task of deciding whether a second poem is also a sonnet, a comparison-based approach might attempt to establish an alignment or mapping between the two. Approaches that rely on comparison or mapping are especially prominent in the literature on analogical reasoning [4, 5], and many of these approaches can be viewed as accounts of relational categorization [6]. For example, the problem of deciding whether two systems are analogous can be formalized as the problem of deciding whether these systems are instances of the same relational category. Despite some notable exceptions [6, 7], most accounts of analogy focus on comparison rather than abstraction, and suggest that “analogy passes from one instance of a generalization to another without pausing for explicit induction of the generalization” (p 95) [8]. 1 Schema s 0∀Q ∀x ∀y Q(x) < Q(y) ↔ D1 (x) < D1 (y) Group g Observation o Figure 1: A hierarchical generative model for learning and using relational categories. The schema s at the top level is a logical sentence that specifies which groups are valid instances of the category. The group g at the second level is randomly sampled from the set of valid instances, and the observation o is a partially observed version of group g. Researchers that focus on comparison sometimes discuss abstraction, but typically suggest that abstractions emerge as a consequence of comparing two or more concrete instances of a category [3, 5, 9, 10]. This view, however, will not account for one-shot inferences, or inferences based on a single instance of a relational category. Consider a learner who is shown one instance of a sonnet then asked to create a second instance. Since only one instance is provided, it is hard to see how comparisons between instances could account for success on the task. A single instance, however, will sometimes provide enough information for a schema to be learned, and this schema should allow subsequent instances to be generated [11]. Here we develop a formal framework for exploring relational learning in general and one-shot schema learning in particular. Our framework relies on the hierarchical Bayesian approach, which provides a natural way to combine abstraction and probabilistic inference [12]. The hierarchical Bayesian approach supports representations at multiple levels of abstraction, and helps to explains how abstract representations (e.g. a sonnet schema) can be acquired given observations of concrete instances (e.g. individual sonnets). The schemata we consider are represented as sentences in a logical language, and our approach therefore builds on previous probabilistic methods for learning and using logical theories [13, 14]. Following previous authors, we propose that logical representations can help to capture the content of human knowledge, and that Bayesian inference helps to explain how these representations are acquired and how they support inductive inference. The following sections introduce our framework then evaluate it using two behavioral experiments. Our first experiment uses a standard classification task where participants are shown one example of a category then asked to decide which of two alternatives is more likely to belong to the same category. Tasks of this kind have previously been used to argue for the importance of comparison, but we suggest that these tasks can be handled by accounts that focus on abstraction. Our second experiment uses a less standard generation task [15, 16] where participants are shown a single example of a category then asked to generate additional examples. As predicted by our abstraction-based account, we find that people are able to learn relational categories on the basis of a single example. 1 A generative approach to relational learning Our examples so far have used real-world relational categories such as family and sonnet but we now turn to a very simple domain where relational categorization can be studied. Each element in the domain is a group of components that vary along a number of dimensions—in Figure 1, the components are figures that vary along the dimensions of size, color, and circle position. The groups can be organized into categories—one such category includes groups where every component is black. Although our domain is rather basic it allows some simple relational regularities to be explored. We can consider categories, for example, where all components in a group must be the same along some dimension, and categories where all components must be different along some dimension. We can also consider categories defined by relationships between dimensions—for example, the category that includes all groups where the size and color dimensions are correlated. Each category is associated with a schema, or an abstract representation that specifies which groups are valid instances of the category. Here we consider schemata that correspond to rules formulated 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7  ff ˘ ¯ ∀x D (x) =, =, <, > vk ∃xff  i  ff ˘ ¯ ∀x ∀y x = y → D (x) =, =, <, > Di (y) ∃x ∃y x = y ∧ 8 i9 ˘ ¯ <∧= ˘ ¯ ∀x Di (x) =, = vk ∨ Dj (x) =, = vl : ; ↔ 8 9 0 1 <∧= ˘ ¯ ˘ ¯ ∀x∀y x = y → @Di (x) =, =, <, > Di (y) ∨ Dj (x) =, =, <, > Dj (y)A : ; ↔  ff ff ff ˘ ¯ ∀Q ∀x ∀y x = y → Q(x) =, =, <, > Q(y) ∃Q ∃x ∃y x = y ∧ 8 9 0 1  ff <∧= ˘ ¯ ˘ ¯ ∀Q Q = Di → ∀x∀y x = y → @Q(x) =, =, <, > Q(y) ∨ Di (x) =, =, <, > Di (y)A ∃Q Q = Di ∧ : ; ↔ 8 9 0 1  ff ff <∧= ˘ ¯ ˘ ¯ ∀Q ∀R Q = R → ∀x∀y x = y → @Q(x) =, =, <, > Q(y) ∨ R(x) =, =, <, > R(y)A ∃Q ∃R Q = R ∧ : ; ↔ Table 1: Templates used to construct a hypothesis space of logical schemata. An instance of a given template can be created by choosing an element from each set enclosed in braces (some sets are laid out horizontally to save space), replacing each occurrence of Di or Dj with a dimension (e.g. D1 ) and replacing each occurrence of vk or vl with a value (e.g. 1). in a logical language. The language includes three binary connectives—and (∧), or (∨), and if and only if (↔). Four binary relations (=, =, <, and >) are available for comparing values along dimensions. Universal quantification (∀x) and existential quantification (∃x) are both permitted, and the language includes quantification over objects (∀x) and dimensions (∀Q). For example, the schema in Figure 1 states that all dimensions are aligned. More precisely, if D1 is the dimension of size, the schema states that for all dimensions Q, a component x is smaller than a component y along dimension Q if and only if x is smaller in size than y. It follows that all three dimensions must increase or decrease together. To explain how rules in this logical language are learned we work with the hierarchical generative model in Figure 1. The representation at the top level is a schema s, and we assume that one or more groups g are generated from a distribution P (g|s). Following a standard approach to category learning [17, 18], we assume that g is uniformly sampled from all groups consistent with s: p(g|s) ∝ 1 g is consistent with s 0 otherwise (1) For all applications in this paper, we assume that the number of components in a group is known and fixed in advance. The bottom level of the hierarchy specifies observations o that are generated from a distribution P (o|g). In most cases we assume that g can be directly observed, and that P (o|g) = 1 if o = g and 0 otherwise. We also consider the setting shown in Figure 1 where o is generated by concealing a component of g chosen uniformly at random. Note that the observation o in Figure 1 includes only four of the components in group g, and is roughly analogous to our earlier example of a sonnet with an illegible final word. To convert Figure 1 into a fully-specified probabilistic model it remains to define a prior distribution P (s) over schemata. An appealing approach is to consider all of the infinitely many sentences in the logical language already mentioned, and to define a prior favoring schemata which correspond to simple (i.e. short) sentences. We approximate this approach by considering a large but finite space of sentences that includes all instances of the templates in Table 1 and all conjunctions of these instances. When instantiating one of these templates, each occurrence of Di or Dj should be replaced by one of the dimensions in the domain. For example, the schema in Figure 1 is a simplified instance of template 6 where Di is replaced by D1 . Similarly, each instance of vk or vl should be replaced by a value along one of the dimensions. Our first experiment considers a problem where there are are three dimensions and three possible values along each dimension (i.e. vk = 1, 2, or 3). As a result there are 1568 distinct instances of the templates in Table 1 and roughly one million 3 conjunctions of these instances. Our second experiment uses three dimensions with five values along each dimension, which leads to 2768 template instances and roughly three million conjunctions of these instances. The templates in Table 1 capture most of the simple regularities that can be formulated in our logical language. Template 1 generates all rules that include quantification over a single object variable and no binary connectives. Template 3 is similar but includes a single binary connective. Templates 2 and 4 are similar to 1 and 3 respectively, but include two object variables (x and y) rather than one. Templates 5, 6 and 7 add quantification over dimensions to Templates 2 and 4. Although the templates in Table 1 capture a large class of regularities, several kinds of templates are not included. Since we do not assume that the dimensions are commensurable, values along different dimensions cannot be directly compared (∃x D1 (x) = D2 (x) is not permitted. For the same reason, comparisons to a dimension value must involve a concrete dimension (∀x D1 (x) = 1 is permitted) rather than a dimension variable (∀Q ∀x Q(x) = 1 is not permitted). Finally, we exclude all schemata where quantification over objects precedes quantification over dimensions, and as a result there are some simple schemata that our implementation cannot learn (e.g. ∃x∀y∃Q Q(x) = Q(y)). The extension of each schema is a set of groups, and schemata with the same extension can be assigned to the same equivalence class. For example, ∀x D1 (x) = v1 (an instance of template 1) and ∀x D1 (x) = v1 ∧ D1 (x) = v1 (an instance of template 3) end up in the same equivalence class. Each equivalence class can be represented by the shortest sentence that it contains, and we define our prior P (s) over a set that includes a single representative for each equivalence class. The prior probability P (s) of each sentence is inversely proportional to its length: P (s) ∝ λ|s| , where |s| is the length of schema s and λ is a constant between 0 and 1. For all applications in this paper we set λ = 0.8. The generative model in Figure 1 can be used for several purposes, including schema learning (inferring a schema s given one or more instances generated from the schema), classification (deciding whether group gnew belongs to a category given one or more instances of the category) and generation (generating a group gnew that belongs to the same category as one or more instances). Our first experiment explores all three of these problems. 2 Experiment 1: Relational classification Our first experiment is organized around a triad task where participants are shown one example of a category then asked to decide which of two choice examples is more likely to belong to the category. Triad tasks are regularly used by studies of relational categorization, and have been used to argue for the importance of comparison [1]. A comparison-based approach to this task, for instance, might compare the example object to each of the choice objects in order to decide which is the better match. Our first experiment is intended in part to explore whether a schema-learning approach can also account for inferences about triad tasks. Materials and Method. 18 adults participated for course credit and interacted with a custom-built computer interface. The stimuli were groups of figures that varied along three dimensions (color, size, and ball position, as in Figure 1). Each shape was displayed on a single card, and all groups in Experiment 1 included exactly three cards. The cards in Figure 1 show five different values along each dimension, but Experiment 1 used only three values along each dimension. The experiment included inferences about 10 triads. Participants were told that aliens from a certain planet “enjoy organizing cards into groups,” and that “any group of cards will probably be liked by some aliens and disliked by others.” The ten triad tasks were framed as questions about the preferences of 10 aliens. Participants were shown a group that Mr X likes (different names were used for the ten triads), then shown two choice groups and told that “Mr X likes one of these groups but not the other.” Participants were asked to select one of the choice groups, then asked to generate another 3-card group that Mr X would probably like. Cards could be added to the screen using an “Add Card” button, and there were three pairs of buttons that allowed each card to be increased or decreased along the three dimensions. Finally, participants were asked to explain in writing “what kind of groups Mr X likes.” The ten triads used are shown in Figure 2. Each group is represented as a 3 by 3 matrix where rows represent cards and columns show values along the three dimensions. Triad 1, for example, 4 (a) D1 value always 3 321 332 313 1 0.5 1 231 323 333 1 4 0.5 4 311 122 333 311 113 313 8 12 16 20 24 211 222 233 211 232 223 1 4 0.5 4 211 312 113 8 12 16 20 24 1 1 4 8 12 16 20 24 312 312 312 313 312 312 1 8 12 16 20 24 211 232 123 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 0.5 231 322 213 112 212 312 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 1 1 4 4 (j) Some dimension has no repeats 0.5 1 311 232 123 231 132 333 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 111 312 213 231 222 213 (i) All dimensions have no repeats 331 122 213 4 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 (h) Some dimension uniform 1 4 4 0.5 1 311 212 113 0.5 1 321 122 223 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 4 0.5 331 322 313 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 (f) Two dimensions anti-aligned (g) All dimensions uniform 133 133 133 4 0.5 1 321 222 123 0.5 1 8 12 16 20 24 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 1 0.5 111 212 313 331 212 133 1 (e) Two dimensions aligned 311 322 333 311 113 323 4 (d) D1 and D3 anti-aligned 0.5 1 0.5 1 1 0.5 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 (c) D2 and D3 aligned 1 132 332 233 1 0.5 331 323 333 (b) D2 uniform 1 311 321 331 8 12 16 20 24 311 331 331 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 Figure 2: Human responses and model predictions for the ten triads in Experiment 1. The plot at the left of each panel shows model predictions (white bars) and human preferences (black bars) for the two choice groups in each triad. The plots at the right of each panel summarize the groups created during the generation phase. The 23 elements along the x-axis correspond to the regularities listed in Table 2. 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 All dimensions aligned Two dimensions aligned D1 and D2 aligned D1 and D3 aligned D2 and D3 aligned All dimensions aligned or anti-aligned Two dimensions anti-aligned D1 and D2 anti-aligned D1 and D3 anti-aligned D2 and D3 anti-aligned All dimensions have no repeats Two dimensions have no repeats 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 One dimension has no repeats D1 has no repeats D2 has no repeats D3 has no repeats All dimensions uniform Two dimensions uniform One dimension uniform D1 uniform D2 uniform D3 uniform D1 value is always 3 Table 2: Regularities used to code responses to the generation tasks in Experiments 1 and 2 has an example group including three cards that each take value 3 along D1 . The first choice group is consistent with this regularity but the second choice group is not. The cards in each group were arrayed vertically on screen, and were initially sorted as shown in Figure 2 (i.e. first by D3 , then by D2 and then by D1 ). The cards could be dragged around on screen, and participants were invited to move them around in order to help them understand each group. The mapping between the three dimensions in each matrix and the three dimensions in the experiment (color, position, and size) was randomized across participants, and the order in which triads were presented was also randomized. Model predictions and results. Let ge be the example group presented in the triad task and g1 and g2 be the two choice groups. We use our model to compute the relative probability of two hypotheses: h1 which states that ge and g1 are generated from the same schema and that g2 is sampled randomly from all possible groups, and h2 which states that ge and g2 are generated from the same schema. We set P (h1 ) = P (h2 ) = 0.5, and compute posterior probabilities P (h1 |ge , g1 , g2 ) and P (h2 |ge , g1 , g2 ) by integrating over all schemata in the hypothesis space already described. Our model assumes that two groups are considered similar to the extent that they appear to have been generated by the same underlying schema, and is consistent with the generative approach to similarity described by Kemp et al. [19]. Model predictions for the ten triads are shown in Figure 2. In each case, the choice probabilities plotted (white bars) are the posterior probabilities of hypotheses h1 and h2 . In nine out of ten cases the best choice according to the model is the most common human response. Responses to triads 2c and 2d support the idea that people are sensitive to relationships between dimensions (i.e. alignment and anti-alignment). Triads 2e and 2f are similar to triads studied by Kotovsky and Gentner [1], and we replicate their finding that people are sensitive to relationships between dimensions even when the dimensions involved vary from group to group. The one case where human responses diverge from model predictions is shown in Figure 2h. Note that the schema for this triad involves existential quantification over dimensions (some dimension is uniform), and according to our prior P (s) this kind of quantification is no more complex than other kinds of quantification. Future applications of our approach can explore the idea that existential quantification over dimensions (∃Q) is psychologically more complex than universal quantification over dimensions (∀Q) or existential quantification over cards (∃x), and can consider logical languages that incorporate this inductive bias. To model the generation phase of the experiment we computed the posterior distribution P (gnew |ge , g1 , g2 ) = P (gnew |s)P (s|h, ge , g1 , g2 )P (h|ge , g1 , g2 ) s,h where P (h|ge , g1 , g2 ) is the distribution used to model selections in the triad task. Since the space of possible groups is large, we visualize this distribution using a profile that shows the posterior probability assigned to groups consistent with the 23 regularities shown in Table 2. The white bar plots in Figure 2 show profiles predicted by the model, and the black plots immediately above show profiles computed over the groups generated by our 18 participants. In many of the 10 cases the model accurately predicts regularities in the groups generated by people. In case 2c, for example, the model correctly predicts that generated groups will tend to have no repeats along dimensions D2 and D3 (regularities 15 and 16) and that these two dimensions will be aligned (regularities 2 and 5). There are, however, some departures from the model’s predictions, and a notable example occurs in case 2d. Here the model detects the regularity that dimensions D1 and D3 are anti-aligned (regularity 9). Some groups generated by participants are consistent with 6 (a) All dimensions aligned 1 0.5 1 8 12 16 20 24 (c) D1 has no repeats, D2 and D3 uniform 1 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 1 8 12 16 20 24 354 312 1 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 423 414 214 315 0.5 314 0.5 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 251 532 314 145 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 (f) All dimensions have no repeats 1 1 335 8 12 16 20 24 (e) All dimensions uniform 1 4 0.5 432 514 324 224 424 0.5 314 314 314 314 8 12 16 20 24 4 1 0.5 4 4 0.5 314 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 431 433 135 335 0.5 1 4 (d) D2 uniform 1 433 1 322 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 0.5 344 333 223 555 222 4 1 1 0.5 0.5 124 224 324 524 311 322 333 354 324 1 0.5 4 311 322 333 355 134 121 232 443 555 443 1 111 333 444 555 (b) D2 and D3 aligned Figure 3: Human responses and model predictions for the six cases in Experiment 2. In (a) and (b), the 4 cards used for the completion and generation phases are shown on either side of the dashed line (completion cards on the left). In the remaining cases, the same 4 cards were used for both phases. The plots at the right of each panel show model predictions (white bars) and human responses (black bars) for the generation task. In each case, the 23 elements along each x-axis correspond to the regularities listed in Table 2. The remaining plots show responses to the completion task. There are 125 possible responses, and the four responses shown always include the top two human responses and the top two model predictions. this regularity, but people also regularly generate groups where two dimensions are aligned rather than anti-aligned (regularity 2). This result may indicate that some participants are sensitive to relationships between dimensions but do not consider the difference between a positive relationship (alignment) and an inverse relationship (anti-alignment) especially important. Kotovsky and Gentner [1] suggest that comparison can explain how people respond to triad tasks, although they do not provide a computational model that can be compared with our approach. It is less clear how comparison might account for our generation data, and our next experiment considers a one-shot generation task that raises even greater challenges for a comparison-based approach. 3 Experiment 2: One-shot schema learning As described already, comparison involves constructing mappings between pairs of category instances. In some settings, however, learners make confident inferences given a single instance of a category [15, 20], and it is difficult to see how comparison could play a major role when only one instance is available. Models that rely on abstraction, however, can naturally account for one-shot relational learning, and we designed a second experiment to evaluate this aspect of our approach. 7 Several previous studies have explored one-shot relational learning. Holyoak and Thagard [21] developed a study of analogical reasoning using stories as stimuli and found little evidence of oneshot schema learning. Ahn et al. [11] demonstrated, however, that one-shot learning can be achieved with complex materials such as stories, and modeled this result using explanation-based learning. Here we use much simpler stimuli and explore a probabilistic approach to one-shot learning. Materials and Method. 18 adults participated for course credit. The same individuals completed Experiments 1 and 2, and Experiment 2 was always run before Experiment 1. The same computer interface was used in both experiments, and the only important difference was that the figures in Experiment 2 could now take five values along each dimension rather than three. The experiment included two phases. During the generation phase, participants saw a 4-card group that Mr X liked and were asked to generate two 5-card groups that Mr X would probably like. During the completion phase, participants were shown four members of a 5-card group and were asked to generate the missing card. The stimuli used in each phase are shown in Figure 3. In the first two cases, slightly different stimuli were used in the generation and completion phases, and in all remaining cases the same set of four cards was used in both cases. All participants responded to the six generation questions before answering the six completion questions. Model predictions and results. The generation phase is modeled as in Experiment 1, but now the posterior distribution P (gnew |ge ) is computed after observing a single instance of a category. The human responses in Figure 3 (white bars) are consistent with the model in all cases, and confirm that a single example can provide sufficient evidence for learners to acquire a relational category. For example, the most common response in case 3a was the 5-card group shown in Figure 1—a group with all three dimensions aligned. To model the completion phase, let oe represent a partial observation of group ge . Our model infers which card is missing from ge by computing the posterior distribution P (ge |oe ) ∝ P (oe |ge ) s P (ge |s)P (s), where P (oe |ge ) captures the idea that oe is generated by randomly concealing one component of ge . The white bars in Figure 3 show model predictions, and in five out of six cases the best response according to the model is the same as the most common human response. In the remaining case (Figure 3d) the model generates a diffuse distribution over all cards with value 3 on dimension 2, and all human responses satisfy this regularity. 4 Conclusion We presented a generative model that helps to explain how relational categories are learned and used. Our approach captures relational regularities using a logical language, and helps to explain how schemata formulated in this language can be learned from observed data. Our approach differs in several respects from previous accounts of relational categorization [1, 5, 10, 22]. First, we focus on abstraction rather than comparison. Second, we consider tasks where participants must generate examples of categories [16] rather than simply classify existing examples. Finally, we provide a formal account that helps to explain how relational categories can be learned from a single instance. Our approach can be developed and extended in several ways. For simplicity, we implemented our model by working with a finite space of several million schemata, but future work can consider hypothesis spaces that assign non-zero probability to all regularities that can be formulated in the language we described. The specific logical language used here is only a starting point, and future work can aim to develop languages that provide a more faithful account of human inductive biases. Finally, we worked with a domain that provides one of the simplest ways to address core questions such as one-shot learning. Future applications of our general approach can consider domains that include more than three dimensions and a richer space of relational regularities. Relational learning and analogical reasoning are tightly linked, and hierarchical generative models provide a promising approach to both problems. We focused here on relational categorization, but future studies can explore whether probabilistic accounts of schema learning can help to explain the inductive inferences typically considered by studies of analogical reasoning. Although there are many models of analogical reasoning, there are few that pursue a principled probabilistic approach, and the hierarchical Bayesian approach may help to fill this gap in the literature. Acknowledgments We thank Maureen Satyshur for running the experiments. This work was supported in part by NSF grant CDI-0835797. 8 References [1] L. Kotovsky and D. Gentner. Comparison and categorization in the development of relational similarity. Child Development, 67:2797–2822, 1996. [2] D. Gentner and A. B. Markman. Structure mapping in analogy and similarity. American Psychologist, 52:45–56, 1997. [3] D. Gentner and J. Medina. Similarity and the development of rules. Cognition, 65:263–297, 1998. [4] B. Falkenhainer, K. D. Forbus, and D. Gentner. The structure-mapping engine: Algorithm and examples. Artificial Intelligence, 41:1–63, 1989. [5] J. E. Hummel and K. J. Holyoak. A symbolic-connectionist theory of relational inference and generalization. Psychological Review, 110:220–264, 2003. [6] M. Mitchell. Analogy-making as perception: a computer model. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1993. [7] D. R. Hofstadter and the Fluid Analogies Research Group. Fluid concepts and creative analogies: computer models of the fundamental mechanisms of thought. 1995. 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Roweis, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 753–760. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2008. [14] S. Kok and P. Domingos. Learning the structure of Markov logic networks. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2005. [15] J. Feldman. The structure of perceptual categories. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 41: 145–170, 1997. [16] A. Jern and C. Kemp. Category generation. In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pages 130–135. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX, 2009. [17] D. Conklin and I. H. Witten. Complexity-based induction. Machine Learning, 16(3):203–225, 1994. [18] J. B. Tenenbaum and T. L. Griffiths. Generalization, similarity, and Bayesian inference. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 24:629–641, 2001. [19] C. Kemp, A. Bernstein, and J. B. Tenenbaum. A generative theory of similarity. In B. G. Bara, L. Barsalou, and M. Bucciarelli, editors, Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pages 1132–1137. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2005. [20] C. Kemp, N. D. Goodman, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Theory acquisition and the language of thought. In Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pages 1606–1611. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX, 2008. [21] K. J. Holyoak and P. Thagard. Analogical mapping by constraint satisfaction. Cognitive Science, 13(3):295–355, 1989. [22] L. A. A. Doumas, J. E. Hummel, and C. M. Sandhofer. A theory of the discovery and predication of relational concepts. Psychological Review, 115(1):1–43, 2008. [23] M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak. Schema induction and analogical transfer. Cognitive Psychology, 15:1–38, 1983. 9

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At a relatively early age the child will solve the problem of object discovery and will realize that her encounters with dogs correspond to views of two individuals rather than one or three. The child will also solve the problem of identification, and will be able to reliably identify an individual (e.g. Fido) each time it is encountered. This paper presents a Bayesian approach that helps to explain both object discovery and identification. Bayesian models are appealing in part because they help to explain how inferences are guided by prior knowledge. Imagine, for example, that you see some photographs taken by your friends Alice and Bob. The first shot shows Alice sitting next to a large statue and eating a sandwich, and the second is similar but features Bob rather than Alice. The statues in each photograph look identical, and probably you will conclude that the two photographs are representations of the same statue. The sandwiches in the photographs also look identical, but probably you will conclude that the photographs show different sandwiches. The prior knowledge that contributes to these inferences appears rather complex, but we will explore some much simpler cases where prior knowledge guides identification. A second advantage of Bayesian models is that they help to explain how learners cope with uncertainty. In some cases a learner may solve the problem of object discovery but should maintain uncertainty when faced with identification problems. For example, I may be quite certain that I have met eight different individuals at a dinner party, even if I am unable to distinguish between two guests who are identical twins. In other cases a learner may need to reason about several related problems even if there is no definitive solution to any one of them. Consider, for example, a young child who must simultaneously discover which objects her world contains (e.g. Mother, Father, Fido, and Rex) and organize them into categories (e.g. people and dogs). Many accounts of categorization seem to implicitly assume that the problem of identification must be solved before categorization can begin, but we will see that a probabilistic approach can address both problems simultaneously. Identification and object discovery have been discussed by researchers from several disciplines, including psychology [2, 3, 4, 5, 6], machine learning [7, 8], statistics [9], and philosophy [10]. Many machine learning approaches can handle identity uncertainty, or uncertainty about whether two tokens correspond to the same object. Some approaches such such as BLOG [8] are able in addition to handle problems where the number of objects is not specified in advance. We propose 1 that some of these approaches can help to explain human learning, and this paper uses a simple BLOG-style approach [8] to account for human inferences. There are several existing psychological models of identification, and the work of Shepard [11], Nosofsky [3] and colleagues is probably the most prominent. Models in this tradition usually focus on problems where the set of objects is specified in advance and where identity uncertainty arises as a result of perceptual noise. In contrast, we focus on problems where the number of objects must be inferred and where identity uncertainty arises from partial observability rather than noise. A separate psychological tradition focuses on problems where the number of objects is not fixed in advance. Developmental psychologists, for example, have used displays where only one object token is visible at any time to explore whether young infants can infer how many different objects have been observed in total [4]. Our work emphasizes some of the same themes as this developmental research, but we go beyond previous work in this area by presenting and evaluating a computational approach to object identification and discovery. The problem of deciding how many objects have been observed is sometimes called individuation [12] but here we treat individuation as a special case of object discovery. Note, however, that object discovery can also refer to cases where learners infer the existence of objects that have never been observed. Unobserved-object discovery has received relatively little attention in the psychological literature, but is addressed by statistical models including including species-sampling models [9] and capture-recapture models [13]. Simple statistical models of this kind will not address some of the most compelling examples of unobserved-object discovery, such as the discovery of the planet Neptune, or the ability to infer the existence of a hidden object by following another person’s gaze [14]. We will show, however, that a simple statistical approach helps to explain how humans infer the existence of objects that they have never seen. 1 A probabilistic account of object discovery and identification Object discovery and identification may depend on many kinds of observations and may be supported by many kinds of prior knowledge. This paper considers a very simple setting where these problems can be explored. Suppose that an agent is learning about a world that contains nw white balls and n − nw gray balls. Let f (oi ) indicate the color of ball oi , where each ball is white (f (oi ) = 1) or gray (f (oi ) = 0). An agent learns about the world by observing a sequence of object tokens. Suppose that label l(j) is a unique identifier of token j—in other words, suppose that the jth token is a token of object ol(j) . Suppose also that the jth token is observed to have feature value g(j). Note the difference between f and g: f is a vector that specifies the color of the n balls in the world, and g is a vector that specifies the color of the object tokens observed thus far. We define a probability distribution over token sequences by assuming that a world is sampled from a prior P (n, nw ) and that tokens are sampled from this world. The full generative model is: P (n) ∝ 1 n 0 if n ≤ 1000 otherwise nw | n ∼ Uniform(0, n) l(j) | n ∼ Uniform(1, n) g(j) = f (ol(j) ) (1) (2) (3) (4) A prior often used for inferences about a population of unknown size is the scale-invariant Jeffreys 1 prior P (n) = n [15]. We follow this standard approach here but truncate at n = 1000. Choosing some upper bound is convenient when implementing the model, and has the advantage of producing a prior that is proper (note that the Jeffreys prior is improper). Equation 2 indicates that the number of white balls nw is sampled from a discrete uniform distribution. Equation 3 indicates that each token is generated by sampling one of the n balls in the world uniformly at random, and Equation 4 indicates that the color of each token is observed without noise. The generative assumptions just described can be used to define a probabilistic approach to object discovery and identification. Suppose that the observations available to a learner consist of a fully-observed feature vector g and a partially-observed label vector lobs . Object discovery and identification can be addressed by using the posterior distribution P (l|g, lobs ) to make inferences about the number of distinct objects observed and about the identity of each token. Computing the posterior distribution P (n|g, lobs ) allows the learner to make inferences about the total number of objects 2 in the world. In some cases, the learner may solve the problem of unobserved-object discovery by realizing that the world contains more objects than she has observed thus far. The next sections explore the idea that the inferences made by humans correspond approximately to the inferences of this ideal learner. Since the ideal learner allows for the possible existence of objects that have not yet been observed, we refer to our model as the open world model. Although we make no claim about the psychological mechanisms that might allow humans to approximate the predictions of the ideal learner, in practice we need some method for computing the predictions of our model. Since the domains we consider are relatively small, all results in this paper were computed by enumerating and summing over the complete set of possible worlds. 2 Experiment 1: Prior knowledge and identification The introduction described a scenario (the statue and sandwiches example) where prior knowledge appears to guide identification. Our first experiment explores a very simple instance of this idea. We consider a setting where participants observe balls that are sampled with replacement from an urn. In one condition, participants sample the same ball from the urn on four consecutive occasions and are asked to predict whether the token observed on the fifth draw is the same ball that they saw on the first draw. In a second condition participants are asked exactly the same question about the fifth token but sample four different balls on the first four draws. We expect that these different patterns of data will shape the prior beliefs that participants bring to the identification problem involving the fifth token, and that participants in the first condition will be substantially more likely to identify the fifth token as a ball that they have seen before. Although we consider an abstract setting involving balls and urns the problem we explore has some real-world counterparts. Suppose, for example, that a colleague wears the same tie to four formal dinners. Based on this evidence you might be able to estimate the total number of ties that he owns, and might guess that he is less likely to wear a new tie to the next dinner than a colleague who wore different ties to the first four dinners. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. Participants interacted with a computer interface that displayed an urn, a robotic arm and a beam of UV light. The arm randomly sampled balls from the urn, and participants were told that each ball had a unique serial number that was visible only under UV light. After some balls were sampled, the robotic arm moved them under the UV light and revealed their serial numbers before returning them to the urn. Other balls were returned directly to the urn without having their serial numbers revealed. The serial numbers were alphanumeric strings such as “QXR182”—note that these serial numbers provide no information about the total number of objects, and that our setting is therefore different from the Jeffreys tramcar problem [15]. The experiment included five within-participant conditions shown in Figure 1. The observations for each condition can be summarized by a string that indicates the number of tokens and the serial numbers of some but perhaps not all tokens. The 1 1 1 1 1 condition in Figure 1a is a case where the same ball (without loss of generality, we call it ball 1) is drawn from the urn on five consecutive occasions. The 1 2 3 4 5 condition in Figure 1b is a case where five different balls are drawn from the urn. The 1 condition in Figure 1d is a case where five draws are made, but only the serial number of the first ball is revealed. Within any of the five conditions, all of the balls had the same color (white or gray), but different colors were used across different conditions. For simplicity, all draws in Figure 1 are shown as white balls. On the second and all subsequent draws, participants were asked two questions about any token that was subsequently identified. They first indicated whether the token was likely to be the same as the ball they observed on the first draw (the ball labeled 1 in Figure 1). They then indicated whether the token was likely to be a ball that they had never seen before. Both responses were provided on a scale from 1 (very unlikely) to 7 (very likely). At the end of each condition, participants were asked to estimate the total number of balls in the urn. Twelve options were provided ranging from “exactly 1” to “exactly 12,” and a thirteenth option was labeled “more than 12.” Responses to each option were again provided on a seven point scale. Model predictions and results. The comparisons of primary interest involve the identification questions in conditions 1a and 1b. In condition 1a the open world model infers that the total number of balls is probably low, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is the same as the 3 a) b) 1 1 1 1 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 2 3 4 5 ? = (1) ?NEW = NEW BALL 1 BALL (1) NEW 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 Open world 7 5 0.66 DP mixture 7 5 0.66 PY mixture Human 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 1 1 0.66 0.66 0.33 0.33 0 0 7 13 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 1 # Balls 1 # Balls 0.66 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? d) e) 5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 13 13 9 9 9 5 5 5 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 Human 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 Open world c) 1 # Balls Figure 1: Model predictions and results for the five conditions in experiment 1. The left columns in (a) and (b) show inferences about the identification questions. In each plot, the first group of bars shows predictions about the probability that each new token is the same ball as the first ball drawn from the urn. The second group of bars shows the probability that each new token is a ball that has never been seen before. The right columns in (a) and (b) and the plots in (c) through (e) show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. All human responses are shown on the 1-7 scale used for the experiment. Model predictions are shown as probabilities (identification questions) or ranks (population size questions). first object observed. In condition 1b the model infers that the number of balls is probably high, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is probably a new ball. The rightmost charts in Figures 1a and 1b show inferences about the total number of balls and confirm that humans expect the number of balls to be low in condition 1a and high in condition 1b. Note that participants in condition 1b have solved the problem of unobserved-object discovery and inferred the existence of objects that they have never seen. The leftmost charts in 1a and 1b show responses to the identification questions, and the final bar in each group of four shows predictions about the fifth token sampled. As predicted by the model, participants in 1a become increasingly confident that each new token is the same object as the first token, but participants in 1b become increasingly confident that each new token is a new object. The increase in responses to the new ball questions in Figure 1b is replicated in conditions 2d and 2e of Experiment 2, and therefore appears to be reliable. 4 The third and fourth rows of Figures 1a and 1b show the predictions of two alternative models that are intuitively appealing but that fail to account for our results. The first is the Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture model, which was proposed by Anderson [16] as an account of human categorization. Unlike most psychological models of categorization, the DP mixture model reserves some probability mass for outcomes that have not yet been observed. The model incorporates a prior distribution over partitions—in most applications of the model these partitions organize objects into categories, but Anderson suggests that the model can also be used to organize object tokens into classes that correspond to individual objects. The DP mixture model successfully predicts that the ball 1 questions will receive higher ratings in 1a than 1b, but predicts that responses to the new ball question will be identical across these two conditions. According to this model, the probability that a new token θ corresponds to a new object is m+θ where θ is a hyperparameter and m is the number of tokens observed thus far. Note that this probability is the same regardless of the identities of the m tokens previously observed. The Pitman Yor (PY) mixture model in the fourth row is a generalization of the DP mixture model that uses a prior over partitions defined by two hyperparameters [17]. According to this model, the probability that a new token corresponds to a new object is θ+kα , where θ and α are hyperparameters m+θ and k is the number of distinct objects observed so far. The flexibility offered by a second hyperparameter allows the model to predict a difference in responses to the new ball questions across the two conditions, but the model does not account for the increasing pattern observed in condition 1b. Most settings of θ and α predict that the responses to the new ball questions will decrease in condition 1b. A non-generic setting of these hyperparameters with θ = 0 can generate the flat predictions in Figure 1, but no setting of the hyperparameters predicts the increase in the human responses. Although the PY and DP models both make predictions about the identification questions, neither model can predict the total number of balls in the urn. Both models assume that the population of balls is countably infinite, which does not seem appropriate for the tasks we consider. Figures 1c through 1d show results for three control conditions. Like condition 1a, 1c and 1d are cases where exactly one serial number is observed. Like conditions 1a and 1b, 1d and 1e are cases where exactly five tokens are observed. None of these control conditions produces results similar to conditions 1a and 1b, suggesting that methods which simply count the number of tokens or serial numbers will not account for our results. In each of the final three conditions our model predicts that the posterior distribution on the number of balls n should decay as n increases. This prediction is not consistent with our data, since most participants assigned equal ratings to all 13 options, including “exactly 12 balls” and “more than 12 balls.” The flat responses in Figures 1c through 1e appear to indicate a generic desire to express uncertainty, and suggest that our ideal learner model accounts for human responses only after several informative observations have been made. 3 Experiment 2: Object discovery and identity uncertainty Our second experiment focuses on object discovery rather than identification. We consider cases where learners make inferences about the number of objects they have seen and the total number of objects in the urn even though there is substantial uncertainty about the identities of many of the tokens observed. Our probabilistic model predicts that observations of unidentified tokens can influence inferences about the total number of objects, and our second experiment tests this prediction. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. The same participants took part in Experiments 1 and 2, and Experiment 2 was always completed after Experiment 1. Participants interacted with the same computer interface in both conditions, and the seven conditions in Experiment 2 are shown in Figure 2. Note that each condition now includes one or more gray tokens. In 2a, for example, there are four gray tokens and none of these tokens is identified. All tokens were sampled with replacement, and the condition labels in Figure 2 summarize the complete set of tokens presented in each condition. Within each condition the tokens were presented in a pseudo-random order—in 2a, for example, the gray and white tokens were interspersed with each other. Model predictions and results. The cases of most interest are the inferences about the total number of balls in conditions 2a and 2c. In both conditions participants observe exactly four white tokens and all four tokens are revealed to be the same ball. The gray tokens in each condition are never identified, but the number of these tokens varies across the conditions. Even though the identities 5 a) ?NEW = NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 7 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 7 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 # Balls c) 1 2 3 4 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 e) ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 # Balls g) 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 9 9 0.33 5 5 5 0 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) Human 7 Open world f) 1 2 3 4 7 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) # Balls (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 Human ?NEW = NEW Open world 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls d) 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 9 0.33 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 13 0.66 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 1 0.66 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) Human 7 Open world b) 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls Figure 2: Model predictions and results for the seven conditions in Experiment 2. The left columns in (a) through (e) show inferences about the identification questions, and the remaining plots show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. of the gray tokens are never revealed, the open world model can use these observations to guide its inference about the total number of balls. In 2a, the proportions of white tokens and gray tokens are equal and there appears to be only one white ball, suggesting that the total number of balls is around two. In 2c grey tokens are now three times more common, suggesting that the total number of balls is larger than two. As predicted, the human responses in Figure 2 show that the peak of the distribution in 2a shifts to the right in 2c. Note, however, that the model does not accurately predict the precise location of the peak in 2c. Some of the remaining conditions in Figure 2 serve as controls for the comparison between 2a and 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c differ in the total number of tokens observed, but condition 2b shows that 6 this difference is not the critical factor. The number of tokens observed is the same across 2b and 2c, yet the inference in 2b is more similar to the inference in 2a than in 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c also differ in the proportion of white tokens observed, but conditions 2f and 2g show that this difference is not sufficient to explain our results. The proportion of white tokens observed is the same across conditions 2a, 2f, and 2g, yet only 2a provides strong evidence that the total number of balls is low. The human inferences for 2f and 2g show the hint of an alternating pattern consistent with the inference that the total number of balls in the urn is even. Only 2 out of 12 participants generated this pattern, however, and the majority of responses are near uniform. Finally, conditions 2d and 2e replicate our finding from Experiment 1 that the identity labels play an important role. The only difference between 2a and 2e is that the four labels are distinct in the latter case, and this single difference produces a predictable divergence in human inferences about the total number of balls. 4 Experiment 3: Categorization and identity uncertainty Experiment 2 suggested that people make robust inferences about the existence and number of unobserved objects in the presence of identity uncertainty. Our final experiment explores categorization in the presence of identity uncertainty. We consider an extreme case where participants make inferences about the variability of a category even though the tokens of that category have never been identified. Method. The experiment included two between subject conditions, and 20 adults were recruited for each condition. Participants were asked to reason about a category including eggs of a given species, where eggs in the same category might vary in size. The interface used in Experiments 1 and 2 was adapted so that the urn now contained two kinds of objects: notepads and eggs. Participants were told that each notepad had a unique color and a unique label written on the front. The UV light played no role in the experiment and was removed from the interface: notepads could be identified by visual inspection, and identifying labels for the eggs were never shown. In both conditions participants observed a sequence of 16 tokens sampled from the urn. Half of the tokens were notepads and the others were eggs, and all egg tokens were identical in size. Whenever an egg was sampled, participants were told that this egg was a Kwiba egg. At the end of the condition, participants were shown a set of 11 eggs that varied in size and asked to rate the probability that each one was a Kwiba egg. Participants then made inferences about the total number of eggs and the total number of notepads in the urn. The two conditions were intended to lead to different inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. In the 4 egg condition, all items (notepad and eggs) were sampled with replacement. The 8 notepad tokens included two tokens of each of 4 notepads, suggesting that the total number of notepads was 4. Since the proportion of egg tokens and notepad tokens was equal, we expected participants to infer that the total number of eggs was roughly four. In the 1 egg condition, four notepads were observed in total, but the first three were sampled without replacement and never returned to the urn. The final notepad and the egg tokens were always sampled with replacement. After the first three notepads had been removed from the urn, the remaining notepad was sampled about half of the time. We therefore expected participants to infer that the urn probably contained a single notepad and a single egg by the end of the experiment, and that all of the eggs they had observed were tokens of a single object. Model. We can simultaneously address identification and categorization by combining the open world model with a Gaussian model of categorization. Suppose that the members of a given category (e.g. Kwiba eggs) vary along a single continuous dimension (e.g. size). We assume that the egg sizes are distributed according to a Gaussian with known mean and unknown variance σ 2 . For convenience, we assume that the mean is zero (i.e. we measure size with respect to the average) and β use the standard inverse-gamma prior on the variance: p(σ 2 ) ∝ (σ 2 )−(α+1) e− σ2 . Since we are interested only in qualitative predictions of the model, the precise values of the hyperparameters are not very important. To generate the results shown in Figure 3 we set α = 0.5 and β = 2. Before observing any eggs, the marginal distribution on sizes is p(x) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 )dσ 2 . Suppose now that we observe m random samples from the category and that each one has size zero. If m is large then these observations provide strong evidence that the variance σ 2 is small, and the posterior distribution p(x|m) will be tightly peaked around zero. If m, is small, however, then the posterior distribution will be broader. 7 2 − Category pdf (1 egg) 1 2 1 0 0 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1 = p4 (x) − p1 (x) Category pdf (4 eggs) p1 (x) p4 (x) a) Model differences 0.1 0 −0.1 −2 0 2 x (size) Human differences 12 8 10 6 4 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 −0.4 2 12 8 10 6 4 2 −2 0 2 x (size) −2 0 2 x (size) b) Number of eggs (4 eggs) Number of eggs (1 egg) c) −4 −2 0 2 4 (size) Figure 3: (a) Model predictions for Experiment 3. The first two panels show the size distributions inferred for the two conditions, and the final panel shows the difference of these distributions. The difference curve for the model rises to a peak of around 1.6 but has been truncated at 0.1. (b) Human inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. As predicted, participants in the 4 egg condition believe that the urn contains more eggs. (c) The difference of the size distributions generated by participants in each condition. The central peak is absent but otherwise the curve is qualitatively similar to the model prediction. The categorization model described so far is entirely standard, but note that our experiment considers a case where T , the observed stream of object tokens, is not sufficient to determine m, the number of distinct objects observed. We therefore use the open world model to generate a posterior distribution over m, and compute a marginal distribution over size by integrating out both m and σ 2 : p(x|T ) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 |m)p(m|T )dσ 2 dm. Figure 3a shows predictions of this “open world + Gaussian” model for the two conditions in our experiment. Note that the difference between the curves for the two conditions has the characteristic Mexican-hat shape produced by a difference of Gaussians. Results. Inferences about the total number of eggs suggested that our manipulation succeeded. Figure 3b indicates that participants in the 4 egg condition believed that they had seen more eggs than participants in the 1 egg condition. Participants in both conditions generated a size distribution for the category of Kwiba eggs, and the difference of these distributions is shown in Figure 3c. Although the magnitude of the differences is small, the shape of the difference curve is consistent with the model predictions. The x = 0 bar is the only case that diverges from the expected Mexican hat shape, and this result is probably due to a ceiling effect—80% of participants in both conditions chose the maximum possible rating for the egg with mean size (size zero), leaving little opportunity for a difference between conditions to emerge. To support the qualitative result in Figure 3c we computed the variance of the curve generated by each individual participant and tested the hypothesis that the variances were greater in the 1 egg condition than in the 4 egg condition. A Mann-Whitney test indicated that this difference was marginally significant (p < 0.1, one-sided). 5 Conclusion Parsing the world into stable and recurring objects is arguably our most basic cognitive achievement [2, 10]. This paper described a simple model of object discovery and identification and evaluated it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment confirmed that people rely on prior knowledge when solving identification problems. Our second and third experiments explored problems where the identities of many object tokens were never revealed. Despite the resulting uncertainty, we found that participants in these experiments were able to track the number of objects they had seen, to infer the existence of unobserved objects, and to learn and reason about categories. Although the tasks in our experiments were all relatively simple, future work can apply our approach to more realistic settings. For example, a straightforward extension of our model can handle problems where objects vary along multiple perceptual dimensions and where observations are corrupted by perceptual noise. Discovery and identification problems may take several different forms, but probabilistic inference can help to explain how all of these problems are solved. Acknowledgments We thank Bobby Han, Faye Han and Maureen Satyshur for running the experiments. 8 References [1] E. A. Tibbetts and J. Dale. Individual recognition: it is good to be different. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22(10):529–237, 2007. [2] W. James. Principles of psychology. Holt, New York, 1890. [3] R. M. Nosofsky. Attention, similarity, and the identification-categorization relationship. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 115:39–57, 1986. [4] F. Xu and S. Carey. Infants’ metaphysics: the case of numerical identity. Cognitive Psychology, 30:111–153, 1996. [5] L. W. Barsalou, J. Huttenlocher, and K. Lamberts. Basing categorization on individuals and events. Cognitive Psychology, 36:203–272, 1998. [6] L. J. Rips, S. Blok, and G. Newman. Tracing the identity of objects. Psychological Review, 113(1):1–30, 2006. [7] A. McCallum and B. Wellner. Conditional models of identity uncertainty with application to noun coreference. In L. K. Saul, Y. Weiss, and L. Bottou, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 905–912. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. [8] B. Milch, B. Marthi, S. Russell, D. Sontag, D. L. Ong, and A. Kolobov. BLOG: Probabilistic models with unknown objects. In Proceedings of the 19th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 1352–1359, 2005. [9] J. Bunge and M. Fitzpatrick. Estimating the number of species: a review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(421):364–373, 1993. [10] R. G. Millikan. On clear and confused ideas: an essay about substance concepts. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2000. [11] R. N. Shepard. Stimulus and response generalization: a stochastic model relating generalization to distance in psychological space. Psychometrika, 22:325–345, 1957. [12] A. M. Leslie, F. Xu, P. D. Tremoulet, and B. J. Scholl. Indexing and the object concept: developing ‘what’ and ‘where’ systems. Trends in Cognitive Science, 2(1):10–18, 1998. [13] J. D. Nichols. Capture-recapture models. Bioscience, 42(2):94–102, 1992. [14] G. Csibra and A. Volein. Infants can infer the presence of hidden objects from referential gaze information. British Journal of Developmental Psychology, 26:1–11, 2008. [15] H. Jeffreys. Theory of Probability. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1961. [16] J. R. Anderson. The adaptive nature of human categorization. Psychological Review, 98(3): 409–429, 1991. [17] J. Pitman. Combinatorial stochastic processes, 2002. Notes for Saint Flour Summer School. 9

2 0.75854117 109 nips-2009-Hierarchical Learning of Dimensional Biases in Human Categorization

Author: Adam Sanborn, Nick Chater, Katherine A. Heller

Abstract: Existing models of categorization typically represent to-be-classified items as points in a multidimensional space. While from a mathematical point of view, an infinite number of basis sets can be used to represent points in this space, the choice of basis set is psychologically crucial. People generally choose the same basis dimensions – and have a strong preference to generalize along the axes of these dimensions, but not “diagonally”. What makes some choices of dimension special? We explore the idea that the dimensions used by people echo the natural variation in the environment. Specifically, we present a rational model that does not assume dimensions, but learns the same type of dimensional generalizations that people display. This bias is shaped by exposing the model to many categories with a structure hypothesized to be like those which children encounter. The learning behaviour of the model captures the developmental shift from roughly “isotropic” for children to the axis-aligned generalization that adults show. 1

3 0.7570588 21 nips-2009-Abstraction and Relational learning

Author: Charles Kemp, Alan Jern

Abstract: Most models of categorization learn categories defined by characteristic features but some categories are described more naturally in terms of relations. We present a generative model that helps to explain how relational categories are learned and used. Our model learns abstract schemata that specify the relational similarities shared by instances of a category, and our emphasis on abstraction departs from previous theoretical proposals that focus instead on comparison of concrete instances. Our first experiment suggests that abstraction can help to explain some of the findings that have previously been used to support comparison-based approaches. Our second experiment focuses on one-shot schema learning, a problem that raises challenges for comparison-based approaches but is handled naturally by our abstraction-based account. Categories such as family, sonnet, above, betray, and imitate differ in many respects but all of them depend critically on relational information. Members of a family are typically related by blood or marriage, and the lines that make up a sonnet must rhyme with each other according to a certain pattern. A pair of objects will demonstrate “aboveness” only if a certain spatial relationship is present, and an event will qualify as an instance of betrayal or imitation only if its participants relate to each other in certain ways. All of the cases just described are examples of relational categories. This paper develops a computational approach that helps to explain how simple relational categories are acquired. Our approach highlights the role of abstraction in relational learning. Given several instances of a relational category, it is often possible to infer an abstract representation that captures what the instances have in common. We refer to these abstract representations as schemata, although others may prefer to call them rules or theories. For example, a sonnet schema might specify the number of lines that a sonnet should include and the rhyming pattern that the lines should follow. Once a schema has been acquired it can support several kinds of inferences. A schema can be used to make predictions about hidden aspects of the examples already observed—if the final word in a sonnet is illegible, the rhyming pattern can help to predict the identity of this word. A schema can be used to decide whether new examples (e.g. new poems) qualify as members of the category. Finally, a schema can be used to generate novel examples of a category (e.g. novel sonnets). Most researchers would agree that abstraction plays some role in relational learning, but Gentner [1] and other psychologists have emphasized the role of comparison instead [2, 3]. Given one example of a sonnet and the task of deciding whether a second poem is also a sonnet, a comparison-based approach might attempt to establish an alignment or mapping between the two. Approaches that rely on comparison or mapping are especially prominent in the literature on analogical reasoning [4, 5], and many of these approaches can be viewed as accounts of relational categorization [6]. For example, the problem of deciding whether two systems are analogous can be formalized as the problem of deciding whether these systems are instances of the same relational category. Despite some notable exceptions [6, 7], most accounts of analogy focus on comparison rather than abstraction, and suggest that “analogy passes from one instance of a generalization to another without pausing for explicit induction of the generalization” (p 95) [8]. 1 Schema s 0∀Q ∀x ∀y Q(x) < Q(y) ↔ D1 (x) < D1 (y) Group g Observation o Figure 1: A hierarchical generative model for learning and using relational categories. The schema s at the top level is a logical sentence that specifies which groups are valid instances of the category. The group g at the second level is randomly sampled from the set of valid instances, and the observation o is a partially observed version of group g. Researchers that focus on comparison sometimes discuss abstraction, but typically suggest that abstractions emerge as a consequence of comparing two or more concrete instances of a category [3, 5, 9, 10]. This view, however, will not account for one-shot inferences, or inferences based on a single instance of a relational category. Consider a learner who is shown one instance of a sonnet then asked to create a second instance. Since only one instance is provided, it is hard to see how comparisons between instances could account for success on the task. A single instance, however, will sometimes provide enough information for a schema to be learned, and this schema should allow subsequent instances to be generated [11]. Here we develop a formal framework for exploring relational learning in general and one-shot schema learning in particular. Our framework relies on the hierarchical Bayesian approach, which provides a natural way to combine abstraction and probabilistic inference [12]. The hierarchical Bayesian approach supports representations at multiple levels of abstraction, and helps to explains how abstract representations (e.g. a sonnet schema) can be acquired given observations of concrete instances (e.g. individual sonnets). The schemata we consider are represented as sentences in a logical language, and our approach therefore builds on previous probabilistic methods for learning and using logical theories [13, 14]. Following previous authors, we propose that logical representations can help to capture the content of human knowledge, and that Bayesian inference helps to explain how these representations are acquired and how they support inductive inference. The following sections introduce our framework then evaluate it using two behavioral experiments. Our first experiment uses a standard classification task where participants are shown one example of a category then asked to decide which of two alternatives is more likely to belong to the same category. Tasks of this kind have previously been used to argue for the importance of comparison, but we suggest that these tasks can be handled by accounts that focus on abstraction. Our second experiment uses a less standard generation task [15, 16] where participants are shown a single example of a category then asked to generate additional examples. As predicted by our abstraction-based account, we find that people are able to learn relational categories on the basis of a single example. 1 A generative approach to relational learning Our examples so far have used real-world relational categories such as family and sonnet but we now turn to a very simple domain where relational categorization can be studied. Each element in the domain is a group of components that vary along a number of dimensions—in Figure 1, the components are figures that vary along the dimensions of size, color, and circle position. The groups can be organized into categories—one such category includes groups where every component is black. Although our domain is rather basic it allows some simple relational regularities to be explored. We can consider categories, for example, where all components in a group must be the same along some dimension, and categories where all components must be different along some dimension. We can also consider categories defined by relationships between dimensions—for example, the category that includes all groups where the size and color dimensions are correlated. Each category is associated with a schema, or an abstract representation that specifies which groups are valid instances of the category. Here we consider schemata that correspond to rules formulated 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7  ff ˘ ¯ ∀x D (x) =, =, <, > vk ∃xff  i  ff ˘ ¯ ∀x ∀y x = y → D (x) =, =, <, > Di (y) ∃x ∃y x = y ∧ 8 i9 ˘ ¯ <∧= ˘ ¯ ∀x Di (x) =, = vk ∨ Dj (x) =, = vl : ; ↔ 8 9 0 1 <∧= ˘ ¯ ˘ ¯ ∀x∀y x = y → @Di (x) =, =, <, > Di (y) ∨ Dj (x) =, =, <, > Dj (y)A : ; ↔  ff ff ff ˘ ¯ ∀Q ∀x ∀y x = y → Q(x) =, =, <, > Q(y) ∃Q ∃x ∃y x = y ∧ 8 9 0 1  ff <∧= ˘ ¯ ˘ ¯ ∀Q Q = Di → ∀x∀y x = y → @Q(x) =, =, <, > Q(y) ∨ Di (x) =, =, <, > Di (y)A ∃Q Q = Di ∧ : ; ↔ 8 9 0 1  ff ff <∧= ˘ ¯ ˘ ¯ ∀Q ∀R Q = R → ∀x∀y x = y → @Q(x) =, =, <, > Q(y) ∨ R(x) =, =, <, > R(y)A ∃Q ∃R Q = R ∧ : ; ↔ Table 1: Templates used to construct a hypothesis space of logical schemata. An instance of a given template can be created by choosing an element from each set enclosed in braces (some sets are laid out horizontally to save space), replacing each occurrence of Di or Dj with a dimension (e.g. D1 ) and replacing each occurrence of vk or vl with a value (e.g. 1). in a logical language. The language includes three binary connectives—and (∧), or (∨), and if and only if (↔). Four binary relations (=, =, <, and >) are available for comparing values along dimensions. Universal quantification (∀x) and existential quantification (∃x) are both permitted, and the language includes quantification over objects (∀x) and dimensions (∀Q). For example, the schema in Figure 1 states that all dimensions are aligned. More precisely, if D1 is the dimension of size, the schema states that for all dimensions Q, a component x is smaller than a component y along dimension Q if and only if x is smaller in size than y. It follows that all three dimensions must increase or decrease together. To explain how rules in this logical language are learned we work with the hierarchical generative model in Figure 1. The representation at the top level is a schema s, and we assume that one or more groups g are generated from a distribution P (g|s). Following a standard approach to category learning [17, 18], we assume that g is uniformly sampled from all groups consistent with s: p(g|s) ∝ 1 g is consistent with s 0 otherwise (1) For all applications in this paper, we assume that the number of components in a group is known and fixed in advance. The bottom level of the hierarchy specifies observations o that are generated from a distribution P (o|g). In most cases we assume that g can be directly observed, and that P (o|g) = 1 if o = g and 0 otherwise. We also consider the setting shown in Figure 1 where o is generated by concealing a component of g chosen uniformly at random. Note that the observation o in Figure 1 includes only four of the components in group g, and is roughly analogous to our earlier example of a sonnet with an illegible final word. To convert Figure 1 into a fully-specified probabilistic model it remains to define a prior distribution P (s) over schemata. An appealing approach is to consider all of the infinitely many sentences in the logical language already mentioned, and to define a prior favoring schemata which correspond to simple (i.e. short) sentences. We approximate this approach by considering a large but finite space of sentences that includes all instances of the templates in Table 1 and all conjunctions of these instances. When instantiating one of these templates, each occurrence of Di or Dj should be replaced by one of the dimensions in the domain. For example, the schema in Figure 1 is a simplified instance of template 6 where Di is replaced by D1 . Similarly, each instance of vk or vl should be replaced by a value along one of the dimensions. Our first experiment considers a problem where there are are three dimensions and three possible values along each dimension (i.e. vk = 1, 2, or 3). As a result there are 1568 distinct instances of the templates in Table 1 and roughly one million 3 conjunctions of these instances. Our second experiment uses three dimensions with five values along each dimension, which leads to 2768 template instances and roughly three million conjunctions of these instances. The templates in Table 1 capture most of the simple regularities that can be formulated in our logical language. Template 1 generates all rules that include quantification over a single object variable and no binary connectives. Template 3 is similar but includes a single binary connective. Templates 2 and 4 are similar to 1 and 3 respectively, but include two object variables (x and y) rather than one. Templates 5, 6 and 7 add quantification over dimensions to Templates 2 and 4. Although the templates in Table 1 capture a large class of regularities, several kinds of templates are not included. Since we do not assume that the dimensions are commensurable, values along different dimensions cannot be directly compared (∃x D1 (x) = D2 (x) is not permitted. For the same reason, comparisons to a dimension value must involve a concrete dimension (∀x D1 (x) = 1 is permitted) rather than a dimension variable (∀Q ∀x Q(x) = 1 is not permitted). Finally, we exclude all schemata where quantification over objects precedes quantification over dimensions, and as a result there are some simple schemata that our implementation cannot learn (e.g. ∃x∀y∃Q Q(x) = Q(y)). The extension of each schema is a set of groups, and schemata with the same extension can be assigned to the same equivalence class. For example, ∀x D1 (x) = v1 (an instance of template 1) and ∀x D1 (x) = v1 ∧ D1 (x) = v1 (an instance of template 3) end up in the same equivalence class. Each equivalence class can be represented by the shortest sentence that it contains, and we define our prior P (s) over a set that includes a single representative for each equivalence class. The prior probability P (s) of each sentence is inversely proportional to its length: P (s) ∝ λ|s| , where |s| is the length of schema s and λ is a constant between 0 and 1. For all applications in this paper we set λ = 0.8. The generative model in Figure 1 can be used for several purposes, including schema learning (inferring a schema s given one or more instances generated from the schema), classification (deciding whether group gnew belongs to a category given one or more instances of the category) and generation (generating a group gnew that belongs to the same category as one or more instances). Our first experiment explores all three of these problems. 2 Experiment 1: Relational classification Our first experiment is organized around a triad task where participants are shown one example of a category then asked to decide which of two choice examples is more likely to belong to the category. Triad tasks are regularly used by studies of relational categorization, and have been used to argue for the importance of comparison [1]. A comparison-based approach to this task, for instance, might compare the example object to each of the choice objects in order to decide which is the better match. Our first experiment is intended in part to explore whether a schema-learning approach can also account for inferences about triad tasks. Materials and Method. 18 adults participated for course credit and interacted with a custom-built computer interface. The stimuli were groups of figures that varied along three dimensions (color, size, and ball position, as in Figure 1). Each shape was displayed on a single card, and all groups in Experiment 1 included exactly three cards. The cards in Figure 1 show five different values along each dimension, but Experiment 1 used only three values along each dimension. The experiment included inferences about 10 triads. Participants were told that aliens from a certain planet “enjoy organizing cards into groups,” and that “any group of cards will probably be liked by some aliens and disliked by others.” The ten triad tasks were framed as questions about the preferences of 10 aliens. Participants were shown a group that Mr X likes (different names were used for the ten triads), then shown two choice groups and told that “Mr X likes one of these groups but not the other.” Participants were asked to select one of the choice groups, then asked to generate another 3-card group that Mr X would probably like. Cards could be added to the screen using an “Add Card” button, and there were three pairs of buttons that allowed each card to be increased or decreased along the three dimensions. Finally, participants were asked to explain in writing “what kind of groups Mr X likes.” The ten triads used are shown in Figure 2. Each group is represented as a 3 by 3 matrix where rows represent cards and columns show values along the three dimensions. Triad 1, for example, 4 (a) D1 value always 3 321 332 313 1 0.5 1 231 323 333 1 4 0.5 4 311 122 333 311 113 313 8 12 16 20 24 211 222 233 211 232 223 1 4 0.5 4 211 312 113 8 12 16 20 24 1 1 4 8 12 16 20 24 312 312 312 313 312 312 1 8 12 16 20 24 211 232 123 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 0.5 231 322 213 112 212 312 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 1 1 4 4 (j) Some dimension has no repeats 0.5 1 311 232 123 231 132 333 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 111 312 213 231 222 213 (i) All dimensions have no repeats 331 122 213 4 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 (h) Some dimension uniform 1 4 4 0.5 1 311 212 113 0.5 1 321 122 223 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 4 0.5 331 322 313 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 (f) Two dimensions anti-aligned (g) All dimensions uniform 133 133 133 4 0.5 1 321 222 123 0.5 1 8 12 16 20 24 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 1 0.5 111 212 313 331 212 133 1 (e) Two dimensions aligned 311 322 333 311 113 323 4 (d) D1 and D3 anti-aligned 0.5 1 0.5 1 1 0.5 1 0.5 8 12 16 20 24 (c) D2 and D3 aligned 1 132 332 233 1 0.5 331 323 333 (b) D2 uniform 1 311 321 331 8 12 16 20 24 311 331 331 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 Figure 2: Human responses and model predictions for the ten triads in Experiment 1. The plot at the left of each panel shows model predictions (white bars) and human preferences (black bars) for the two choice groups in each triad. The plots at the right of each panel summarize the groups created during the generation phase. The 23 elements along the x-axis correspond to the regularities listed in Table 2. 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 All dimensions aligned Two dimensions aligned D1 and D2 aligned D1 and D3 aligned D2 and D3 aligned All dimensions aligned or anti-aligned Two dimensions anti-aligned D1 and D2 anti-aligned D1 and D3 anti-aligned D2 and D3 anti-aligned All dimensions have no repeats Two dimensions have no repeats 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 One dimension has no repeats D1 has no repeats D2 has no repeats D3 has no repeats All dimensions uniform Two dimensions uniform One dimension uniform D1 uniform D2 uniform D3 uniform D1 value is always 3 Table 2: Regularities used to code responses to the generation tasks in Experiments 1 and 2 has an example group including three cards that each take value 3 along D1 . The first choice group is consistent with this regularity but the second choice group is not. The cards in each group were arrayed vertically on screen, and were initially sorted as shown in Figure 2 (i.e. first by D3 , then by D2 and then by D1 ). The cards could be dragged around on screen, and participants were invited to move them around in order to help them understand each group. The mapping between the three dimensions in each matrix and the three dimensions in the experiment (color, position, and size) was randomized across participants, and the order in which triads were presented was also randomized. Model predictions and results. Let ge be the example group presented in the triad task and g1 and g2 be the two choice groups. We use our model to compute the relative probability of two hypotheses: h1 which states that ge and g1 are generated from the same schema and that g2 is sampled randomly from all possible groups, and h2 which states that ge and g2 are generated from the same schema. We set P (h1 ) = P (h2 ) = 0.5, and compute posterior probabilities P (h1 |ge , g1 , g2 ) and P (h2 |ge , g1 , g2 ) by integrating over all schemata in the hypothesis space already described. Our model assumes that two groups are considered similar to the extent that they appear to have been generated by the same underlying schema, and is consistent with the generative approach to similarity described by Kemp et al. [19]. Model predictions for the ten triads are shown in Figure 2. In each case, the choice probabilities plotted (white bars) are the posterior probabilities of hypotheses h1 and h2 . In nine out of ten cases the best choice according to the model is the most common human response. Responses to triads 2c and 2d support the idea that people are sensitive to relationships between dimensions (i.e. alignment and anti-alignment). Triads 2e and 2f are similar to triads studied by Kotovsky and Gentner [1], and we replicate their finding that people are sensitive to relationships between dimensions even when the dimensions involved vary from group to group. The one case where human responses diverge from model predictions is shown in Figure 2h. Note that the schema for this triad involves existential quantification over dimensions (some dimension is uniform), and according to our prior P (s) this kind of quantification is no more complex than other kinds of quantification. Future applications of our approach can explore the idea that existential quantification over dimensions (∃Q) is psychologically more complex than universal quantification over dimensions (∀Q) or existential quantification over cards (∃x), and can consider logical languages that incorporate this inductive bias. To model the generation phase of the experiment we computed the posterior distribution P (gnew |ge , g1 , g2 ) = P (gnew |s)P (s|h, ge , g1 , g2 )P (h|ge , g1 , g2 ) s,h where P (h|ge , g1 , g2 ) is the distribution used to model selections in the triad task. Since the space of possible groups is large, we visualize this distribution using a profile that shows the posterior probability assigned to groups consistent with the 23 regularities shown in Table 2. The white bar plots in Figure 2 show profiles predicted by the model, and the black plots immediately above show profiles computed over the groups generated by our 18 participants. In many of the 10 cases the model accurately predicts regularities in the groups generated by people. In case 2c, for example, the model correctly predicts that generated groups will tend to have no repeats along dimensions D2 and D3 (regularities 15 and 16) and that these two dimensions will be aligned (regularities 2 and 5). There are, however, some departures from the model’s predictions, and a notable example occurs in case 2d. Here the model detects the regularity that dimensions D1 and D3 are anti-aligned (regularity 9). Some groups generated by participants are consistent with 6 (a) All dimensions aligned 1 0.5 1 8 12 16 20 24 (c) D1 has no repeats, D2 and D3 uniform 1 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 1 8 12 16 20 24 354 312 1 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 423 414 214 315 0.5 314 0.5 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 251 532 314 145 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 (f) All dimensions have no repeats 1 1 335 8 12 16 20 24 (e) All dimensions uniform 1 4 0.5 432 514 324 224 424 0.5 314 314 314 314 8 12 16 20 24 4 1 0.5 4 4 0.5 314 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 431 433 135 335 0.5 1 4 (d) D2 uniform 1 433 1 322 8 12 16 20 24 0.5 0.5 344 333 223 555 222 4 1 1 0.5 0.5 124 224 324 524 311 322 333 354 324 1 0.5 4 311 322 333 355 134 121 232 443 555 443 1 111 333 444 555 (b) D2 and D3 aligned Figure 3: Human responses and model predictions for the six cases in Experiment 2. In (a) and (b), the 4 cards used for the completion and generation phases are shown on either side of the dashed line (completion cards on the left). In the remaining cases, the same 4 cards were used for both phases. The plots at the right of each panel show model predictions (white bars) and human responses (black bars) for the generation task. In each case, the 23 elements along each x-axis correspond to the regularities listed in Table 2. The remaining plots show responses to the completion task. There are 125 possible responses, and the four responses shown always include the top two human responses and the top two model predictions. this regularity, but people also regularly generate groups where two dimensions are aligned rather than anti-aligned (regularity 2). This result may indicate that some participants are sensitive to relationships between dimensions but do not consider the difference between a positive relationship (alignment) and an inverse relationship (anti-alignment) especially important. Kotovsky and Gentner [1] suggest that comparison can explain how people respond to triad tasks, although they do not provide a computational model that can be compared with our approach. It is less clear how comparison might account for our generation data, and our next experiment considers a one-shot generation task that raises even greater challenges for a comparison-based approach. 3 Experiment 2: One-shot schema learning As described already, comparison involves constructing mappings between pairs of category instances. In some settings, however, learners make confident inferences given a single instance of a category [15, 20], and it is difficult to see how comparison could play a major role when only one instance is available. Models that rely on abstraction, however, can naturally account for one-shot relational learning, and we designed a second experiment to evaluate this aspect of our approach. 7 Several previous studies have explored one-shot relational learning. Holyoak and Thagard [21] developed a study of analogical reasoning using stories as stimuli and found little evidence of oneshot schema learning. Ahn et al. [11] demonstrated, however, that one-shot learning can be achieved with complex materials such as stories, and modeled this result using explanation-based learning. Here we use much simpler stimuli and explore a probabilistic approach to one-shot learning. Materials and Method. 18 adults participated for course credit. The same individuals completed Experiments 1 and 2, and Experiment 2 was always run before Experiment 1. The same computer interface was used in both experiments, and the only important difference was that the figures in Experiment 2 could now take five values along each dimension rather than three. The experiment included two phases. During the generation phase, participants saw a 4-card group that Mr X liked and were asked to generate two 5-card groups that Mr X would probably like. During the completion phase, participants were shown four members of a 5-card group and were asked to generate the missing card. The stimuli used in each phase are shown in Figure 3. In the first two cases, slightly different stimuli were used in the generation and completion phases, and in all remaining cases the same set of four cards was used in both cases. All participants responded to the six generation questions before answering the six completion questions. Model predictions and results. The generation phase is modeled as in Experiment 1, but now the posterior distribution P (gnew |ge ) is computed after observing a single instance of a category. The human responses in Figure 3 (white bars) are consistent with the model in all cases, and confirm that a single example can provide sufficient evidence for learners to acquire a relational category. For example, the most common response in case 3a was the 5-card group shown in Figure 1—a group with all three dimensions aligned. To model the completion phase, let oe represent a partial observation of group ge . Our model infers which card is missing from ge by computing the posterior distribution P (ge |oe ) ∝ P (oe |ge ) s P (ge |s)P (s), where P (oe |ge ) captures the idea that oe is generated by randomly concealing one component of ge . The white bars in Figure 3 show model predictions, and in five out of six cases the best response according to the model is the same as the most common human response. In the remaining case (Figure 3d) the model generates a diffuse distribution over all cards with value 3 on dimension 2, and all human responses satisfy this regularity. 4 Conclusion We presented a generative model that helps to explain how relational categories are learned and used. Our approach captures relational regularities using a logical language, and helps to explain how schemata formulated in this language can be learned from observed data. Our approach differs in several respects from previous accounts of relational categorization [1, 5, 10, 22]. First, we focus on abstraction rather than comparison. Second, we consider tasks where participants must generate examples of categories [16] rather than simply classify existing examples. Finally, we provide a formal account that helps to explain how relational categories can be learned from a single instance. Our approach can be developed and extended in several ways. For simplicity, we implemented our model by working with a finite space of several million schemata, but future work can consider hypothesis spaces that assign non-zero probability to all regularities that can be formulated in the language we described. The specific logical language used here is only a starting point, and future work can aim to develop languages that provide a more faithful account of human inductive biases. Finally, we worked with a domain that provides one of the simplest ways to address core questions such as one-shot learning. Future applications of our general approach can consider domains that include more than three dimensions and a richer space of relational regularities. Relational learning and analogical reasoning are tightly linked, and hierarchical generative models provide a promising approach to both problems. We focused here on relational categorization, but future studies can explore whether probabilistic accounts of schema learning can help to explain the inductive inferences typically considered by studies of analogical reasoning. Although there are many models of analogical reasoning, there are few that pursue a principled probabilistic approach, and the hierarchical Bayesian approach may help to fill this gap in the literature. Acknowledgments We thank Maureen Satyshur for running the experiments. 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Bucciarelli, editors, Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pages 1132–1137. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2005. [20] C. Kemp, N. D. Goodman, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Theory acquisition and the language of thought. In Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pages 1606–1611. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX, 2008. [21] K. J. Holyoak and P. Thagard. Analogical mapping by constraint satisfaction. Cognitive Science, 13(3):295–355, 1989. [22] L. A. A. Doumas, J. E. Hummel, and C. M. Sandhofer. A theory of the discovery and predication of relational concepts. Psychological Review, 115(1):1–43, 2008. [23] M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak. Schema induction and analogical transfer. Cognitive Psychology, 15:1–38, 1983. 9

4 0.71602505 85 nips-2009-Explaining human multiple object tracking as resource-constrained approximate inference in a dynamic probabilistic model

Author: Ed Vul, George Alvarez, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Michael J. Black

Abstract: Multiple object tracking is a task commonly used to investigate the architecture of human visual attention. Human participants show a distinctive pattern of successes and failures in tracking experiments that is often attributed to limits on an object system, a tracking module, or other specialized cognitive structures. Here we use a computational analysis of the task of object tracking to ask which human failures arise from cognitive limitations and which are consequences of inevitable perceptual uncertainty in the tracking task. We find that many human performance phenomena, measured through novel behavioral experiments, are naturally produced by the operation of our ideal observer model (a Rao-Blackwelized particle filter). The tradeoff between the speed and number of objects being tracked, however, can only arise from the allocation of a flexible cognitive resource, which can be formalized as either memory or attention. 1

5 0.68042731 196 nips-2009-Quantification and the language of thought

Author: Charles Kemp

Abstract: Many researchers have suggested that the psychological complexity of a concept is related to the length of its representation in a language of thought. As yet, however, there are few concrete proposals about the nature of this language. This paper makes one such proposal: the language of thought allows first order quantification (quantification over objects) more readily than second-order quantification (quantification over features). To support this proposal we present behavioral results from a concept learning study inspired by the work of Shepard, Hovland and Jenkins. Humans can learn and think about many kinds of concepts, including natural kinds such as elephant and water and nominal kinds such as grandmother and prime number. Understanding the mental representations that support these abilities is a central challenge for cognitive science. This paper proposes that quantification plays a role in conceptual representation—for example, an animal X qualifies as a predator if there is some animal Y such that X hunts Y . The concepts we consider are much simpler than real-world examples such as predator, but even simple laboratory studies can provide important clues about the nature of mental representation. Our approach to mental representation is based on the language of thought hypothesis [1]. As pursued here, the hypothesis proposes that mental representations are constructed in a compositional language of some kind, and that the psychological complexity of a concept is closely related to the length of its representation in this language [2, 3, 4]. Following previous researchers [2, 4], we operationalize the psychological complexity of a concept in terms of the ease with which it is learned and remembered. Given these working assumptions, the remaining challenge is to specify the representational resources provided by the language of thought. Some previous studies have relied on propositional logic as a representation language [2, 5], but we believe that the resources of predicate logic are needed to capture the structure of many human concepts. In particular, we suggest that the language of thought can accommodate relations, functions, and quantification, and focus here on the role of quantification. Our primary proposal is that quantification is supported by the language of thought, but that quantification over objects is psychologically more natural than quantification over features. To test this idea we compare concept learning in two domains which are very similar except for one critical difference: one domain allows quantification over objects, and the other allows quantification over features. We consider several logical languages that can be used to formulate concepts in both domains, and find that learning times are best predicted by a language that supports quantification over objects but not features. Our work illustrates how theories of mental representation can be informed by comparing concept learning across two or more domains. Existing studies work with a range of domains, and it is useful to consider a “conceptual universe” that includes these possibilities along with many others that have not yet been studied. Table 1 charts a small fragment of this universe, and the penultimate column shows example stimuli that will be familiar from previous studies of concept learning. Previous studies have made important contributions by choosing a single domain in Table 1 and explaining 1 why some concepts within this domain are easier to learn than others [2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9]. Comparisons across domains can also provide important information about learning and mental representation, and we illustrate this claim by comparing learning times across Domains 3 and 4. The next section introduces the conceptual universe in Table 1 in more detail. We then present a formal approach to concept learning that relies on a logical language and compare three candidate languages. Language OQ (for object quantification) supports quantification over objects but not features, language F Q (for feature quantification) supports quantification over features but not objects, and language OQ + F Q supports quantification over both objects and features. We use these languages to predict learning times across Domains 3 and 4, and present an experiment which suggests that language OQ comes closest to the language of thought. 1 The conceptual universe Table 1 provides an organizing framework for thinking about the many domains in which learning can occur. The table includes 8 domains, each of which is defined by specifying some number of objects, features, and relations, and by specifying the range of each feature and each relation. We refer to the elements in each domain as items, and the penultimate column of Table 1 shows items from each domain. The first row shows a domain commonly used by studies of Boolean concept learning. Each item in this domain includes a single object a and specifies whether that object has value v1 (small) or v2 (large) on feature F (size), value v3 (white) or v4 (gray) on feature G (color), and value v5 (vertical) or v6 (horizontal) on feature H (texture). Domain 2 also includes three features, but now each item includes three objects and each feature applies to only one of the objects. For example, feature H (texture) applies to only the third object in the domain (i.e. the third square on each card). Domain 3 is similar to Domain 1, but now the three features can be aligned— for any given item each feature will be absent (value 0) or present. The example in Table 1 uses three features (boundary, dots, and slash) that can each be added to an unadorned gray square. Domain 4 is similar to Domain 2, but again the feature values can be aligned, and the feature for each object will be absent (value 0) or present. Domains 5 and 6 are similar to domains 2 and 4 respectively, but each one includes relations rather than features. In Domain 6, for example, the relation R assigns value 0 (absent) or value 1 (present) to each undirected pair of objects. The first six domains in Table 1 are all variants of Domain 1, which is the domain typically used by studies of Boolean concept learning. Focusing on six related domains helps to establish some of the dimensions along which domains can differ, but the final two domains in Table 1 show some of the many alternative possibilities. Domain 7 includes two categorical features, each of which takes three rather than two values. Domain 8 is similar to Domain 6, but now the number of objects is 6 rather than 3 and relation R is directed rather than undirected. To mention just a handful of possibilities which do not appear in Table 1, domains may also have categorical features that are ordered (e.g. a size feature that takes values small, medium, and large), continuous valued features or relations, relations with more than two places, and objects that contain sub-objects or parts. Several learning problems can be formulated within any given domain. The most basic is to learn a single item—for example, a single item from Domain 8 [4]. A second problem is to learn a class of items—for example, a class that includes four of the items in Domain 1 and excludes the remaining four [6]. Learning an item class can be formalized as learning a unary predicate defined over items, and a natural extension is to consider predicates with two or more arguments. For example, problems of the form A is to B as C is to ? can be formulated as problems where the task is to learn a binary relation analogous(·, ·) given the single example analogous(A, B). Here, however, we focus on the task of learning item classes or unary predicates. Since we focus on the role of quantification, we will work with domains where quantification is appropriate. Quantification over objects is natural in cases like Domain 4 where the feature values for all objects can be aligned. Note, for example, that the statement “every object has its feature” picks out the final example item in Domain 4 but that no such statement is possible in Domain 2. Quantification over features is natural in cases like Domain 3 where the ranges of each feature can be aligned. For example, “object a has all three features” picks out the final example item in Domain 3 but no such statement is possible in Domain 1. We therefore focus on Domains 3 and 4, and explore the problem of learning item classes in each domain. 2 3 {a} {a, b, c} {a} {a, b, c} {a, b, c} {a, b, c} {a} {a, b, c, d, e, f } 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 R : O × O → {0, 1} — F : O → {v1 , v2 , v3 } G : O → {v4 , v5 , v6 } — R : O × O → {0, 1} R : (a, b) → {v1 , v2 } S : (a, c) → {v3 , v4 } T : (b, c) → {v5 , v6 } — — — — Relations — — Domain specification Features F : O → {v1 , v2 } G : O → {v3 , v4 } H : O → {v5 , v6 } F : a → {v1 , v2 } G : b → {v3 , v4 } H : c → {v5 , v6 } F : O → {0, v1 } G : O → {0, v2 } H : O → {0, v3 } F : a → {0, v1 } G : b → {0, v2 } H : c → {0, v3 } , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ... , ... , Example Items , , , , , , , , , , , , , ... , [4] [8, 9] [13] [6] [12] [6] [2, 6, 7, 10, 11] Ref. Table 1: The conceptual universe. Eight domains are shown, and each one is defined by a set of objects, a set of features, and a set of relations. We call the members of each domain items, and an item is created by specifying the extension of each feature and relation in the domain. The six domains above the double lines are closely related to the work of Shepard et al. [6]. Each one includes eight items which differ along three dimensions. These dimensions, however, emerge from different underlying representations in the six cases. Objects O # (a) (b) 1 (I) 2 (II) 3 (III) 4 (III) 5 (IV) 6 (IV) 7 (V) 8 (V) 9 (V) 10 (VI) 111 110 101 011 100 010 001 000 Figure 1: (a) A stimulus lattice for domains (e.g. Domains 3, 4, and 6) that can be encoded as a triple of binary values where 0 represents “absent” and 1 represents “present.” (b) If the order of the values in the triple is not significant, there are 10 distinct ways to partition the lattice into two classes of four items. The SHJ type for each partition is shown in parentheses. Domains 3 and 4 both include 8 items each and we will consider classes that include exactly four of these items. Each item in these domains can be represented as a triple of binary values, where 0 indicates that a feature is absent and value 1 indicates that a feature is present. Each triple represents the values of the three features (Domain 3) or the feature values for the three objects (Domain 4). By representing each domain in this way, we have effectively adopted domain specifications that are simplifications of those shown in Table 1. Domain 3 is represented using three features of the form F, G, H : O → {0, 1}, and Domain 4 is represented using a single feature of the form F : O → {0, 1}. Simplifications of this kind are possible because the features in each domain can be aligned—notice that no corresponding simplifications are possible for Domains 1 and 2. The eight binary triples in each domain can be organized into the lattice shown in Figure 1a. Here we consider all ways to partition the vertices of the lattice into two groups of four. If partitions that differ only up to a permutation of the features (Domain 3) or objects (Domain 4) are grouped into equivalence classes, there are ten of these classes, and a representative of each is shown in Figure 1b. Previous researchers [6] have pointed out that the stimuli in Domain 1 can be organized into a cube similar to Figure 1a, and that there are six ways to partition these stimuli into two groups of four up to permutations of the features and permutations of the range of each feature. We refer to these equivalence classes as the six Shepard-Hovland-Jenkins types (or SHJ types), and each partition in Figure 1b is labeled with its corresponding SHJ type label. Note, for example, that partitions 3 and 4 are both examples of SHJ type III. For us, partitions 3 and 4 are distinct since items 000 (all absent) and 111 (all present) are uniquely identifiable, and partition 3 assigns these items to different classes but partition 4 does not. Previous researchers have considered differences between some of the first six domains in Table 1. Shepard et al. [6] ran experiments using compact stimuli (Domain 1) and distributed stimuli (Domains 2 and 4), and observed the same difficulty ranking of the six SHJ types in all cases. Their work, however, does not acknowledge that Domain 4 leads to 10 distinct types rather than 6, and therefore fails to address issues such as the relative complexities of concepts 5 and 6 in Figure 1. Social psychologists [13, 14] have studied Domain 6 and found that learning patterns depart from the standard SHJ order—in particular, that SHJ type VI (Concept 10 in Figure 1) is simpler than types III, IV and V. This finding has been used to support the claim that social learning relies on a domain-specific principle of structural balance [14]. We will see, however, that the relative simplicity of type VI in domains like 4 and 6 is consistent with a domain-general account based on representational economy. 2 A representation length approach to concept learning The conceptual universe in Table 1 calls for an account of learning that can apply across many domains. One candidate is the representation length approach, which proposes that concepts are mentally represented in a language of thought, and that the subjective complexity of a concept is 4 determined by the length of its representation in this language [4]. We consider the case where a concept corresponds to a class of items, and explore the idea that these concepts are mentally represented in a logical language. More formally, a concept is represented as a logical sentence, and the concept includes all models of this sentence, or all items that make the sentence true. The predictions of this representation length approach depend critically on the language chosen. Here we consider three languages—an object quantification language OQ that supports quantification over objects, a feature quantification language F Q that supports quantification over features, and a language OQ + F Q that supports quantification over both objects and features. Language OQ is based on a standard logical language known as predicate logic with equality. The language includes symbols representing objects (e.g. a and b), and features (e.g. F and G) and these symbols can be combined to create literals that indicate that an object does (Fa ) or does not have a certain feature (Fa ′ ). Literals can be combined using two connectives: AND (Fa Ga ) and OR (Fa + Ga ). The language includes two quantifiers—for all (∀) and there exists (∃)—and allows quantification over objects (e.g. ∀x Fx , where x is a variable that ranges over all objects in the domain). Finally, language OQ includes equality and inequality relations (= and =) which can be used to compare objects and object variables (e.g. =xa or =xy ). Table 2 shows several sentences formulated in language OQ. Suppose that the OQ complexity of each sentence is defined as the number of basic propositions it contains, where a basic proposition can be a positive or negative literal (Fa or Fa ′ ) or an equality or inequality statement (=xa or =xy ). Equivalently, the complexity of a sentence is the total number of ANDs plus the total number of ORs plus one. This measure is equivalent by design to Feldman’s [2] notion of Boolean complexity when applied to a sentence without quantification. The complexity values in Table 2 show minimal complexity values for each concept in Domains 3 and 4. Table 2 also shows a single sentence that achieves each of these complexity values, although some concepts admit multiple sentences of minimal complexity. The complexity values in Table 2 were computed using an “enumerate then combine” approach. We began by enumerating a set of sentences according to criteria described in the next paragraph. Each sentence has an extension that specifies which items in the domain are consistent with the sentence. Given the extensions of all sentences generated during the enumeration phase, the combination phase considered all possible ways to combine these extensions using conjunctions or disjunctions. The procedure terminated once extensions corresponding to all of the concepts in the domain had been found. Although the number of possible sentences grows rapidly as the complexity of these sentences increases, the number of extensions is fixed and relatively small (28 for domains of size 8). The combination phase is tractable since sentences with the same extension can be grouped into a single equivalence class. The enumeration phase considered all formulae which had at most two quantifiers and which had a complexity value lower than four. For example, this phase did not include the formula ∃x ∃y ∃z =yz F′ Fy Fz (too many quantifiers) or the formula ∀x ∃y =xy Fy (Fx + Gx + Hx ) (complexity x too high). Despite these restrictions, we believe that the complexity values in Table 2 are identical to the values that would be obtained if we had considered all possible sentences. Language F Q is similar to OQ but allows quantification over features rather than objects. For example, F Q includes the statement ∀Q Qa , where Q is a variable that ranges over all features in the domain. Language F Q also allows features and feature variables to be compared for equality or inequality (e.g. =QF or =QR ). Since F Q and OQ are closely related, it follows that the F Q complexity values for Domains 3 and 4 are identical to the OQ complexity values for Domains 4 and 3. For example, F Q can express concept 5 in Domain 3 as ∀Q ∃R =QR Ra . We can combine OQ and F Q to create a language OQ + F Q that allows quantification over both objects and features. Allowing both kinds of quantification leads to identical complexity values for Domains 3 and 4. Language OQ + F Q can express each of the formulae for Domain 4 in Table 2, and these formulae can be converted into corresponding formulae for Domain 3 by translating each instance of object quantification into an instance of feature quantification. Logicians distinguish between first-order logic, which allows quantification over objects but not predicates, and second-order logic, which allows quantification over objects and predicates. The difference between languages OQ and OQ + F Q is superficially similar to the difference between first-order and second-order logic, but does not cut to the heart of this matter. Since language 5 # 1 Domain 3 Domain 4 C 1 Ga C 1 Fb 2 Fa Ha + Fa Ha 4 Fa Fc + Fa Fc 4 3 Fa ′ Ga + Fa Ha 4 Fa ′ Fb + Fa Fc 4 4 Fa ′ Ga ′ + Fa Ha 4 Fa ′ Fb ′ + Fa Fc 4 5 Ga (Fa + Ha ) + Fa Ha 2 6 7 8 ′ ′ ′ ′ 5 ∀x ∃y =xy Fy ′ 5 ′ ′ 6 Ga (Fa + Ha ) + Fa Ha Ga (Fa + Ha ) + Fa Ga Ha 3 (∀x Fx ) + Fb ∃y Fy ′ ′ ′ (∀x Fx ) + Fb (Fa + Fc ) 4 ′ ′ ′ 6 ′ ′ 6 (∀x Fx ) + Fa (Fb + Fc ) 4 10 (∀x Fx ) + ∃y ∀z Fy (=zy +Fz ′ ) 4 Ha (Fa + Ga ) + Fa Ga Ha 9 Fa (Ga + Ha ) + Fa Ga Ha 10 Ga ′ (Fa Ha ′ + Fa ′ Ha ) + Ga (Fa ′ Ha ′ + Fa Ha ) ′ ′ ′ Fc (Fa + Fb ) + Fa Fb Fc ′ ′ 6 Table 2: Complexity values C and corresponding formulae for language OQ. Boolean complexity predicts complexity values for both domains that are identical to the OQ complexity values shown here for Domain 3. Language F Q predicts complexity values for Domains 3 and 4 that are identical to the OQ values for Domains 4 and 3 respectively. Language OQ + F Q predicts complexity values for both domains that are identical to the OQ complexity values for Domain 4. OQ + F Q only supports quantification over a pre-specified set of features, it is equivalent to a typed first order logic that includes types for objects and features [15]. Future studies, however, can explore the cognitive relevance of higher-order logic as developed by logicians. 3 Experiment Now that we have introduced languages OQ, F Q and OQ + F Q our theoretical proposals can be sharply formulated. We suggest that quantification over objects plays an important role in mental representations, and predict that OQ complexity will account better for human learning than Boolean complexity. We also propose that quantification over objects is more natural than quantification over features, and predict that OQ complexity will account better for human learning than both F Q complexity and OQ + F Q complexity. We tested these predictions by designing an experiment where participants learned concepts from Domains 3 and 4. Method. 20 adults participated for course credit. Each participant was assigned to Domain 3 or Domain 4 and learned all ten concepts from that domain. The items used for each domain were the cards shown in Table 1. Note, for example, that each Domain 3 card showed one square, and that each Domain 4 card showed three squares. These items are based on stimuli developed by Sakamoto and Love [12]. The experiment was carried out using a custom built graphical interface. For each learning problem in each domain, all eight items were simultaneously presented on the screen, and participants were able to drag them around and organize them however they liked. Each problem had three phases. During the learning phase, the four items belonging to the current concept had red boundaries, and the remaining four items had blue boundaries. During the memory phase, these colored boundaries were removed, and participants were asked to sort the items into the red group and the blue group. If they made an error they returned to the learning phase, and could retake the test whenever they were ready. During the description phase, participants were asked to provide a written description of the two groups of cards. The color assignments (red or blue) were randomized across participants— in other words, the “red groups” learned by some participants were identical to the “blue groups” learned by others. The order in which participants learned the 10 concepts was also randomized. Model predictions. The OQ complexity values for the ten concepts in each domain are shown in Table 2 and plotted in Figure 2a. The complexity values in Figure 2a have been normalized so that they sum to one within each domain, and the differences of these normalized scores are shown in the final row of Figure 2a. The two largest bars in the difference plot indicate that Concepts 10 and 5 are predicted to be easier to learn in Domain 4 than in Domain 3. Language OQ can express 6 OQ complexity Domain 3 a) Learning time b) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Difference Domain 4 0.2 0.2 0.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.1 0.05 0 −0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.1 0.05 0 −0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 2: Normalized OQ complexity values and normalized learning times for the 10 concepts in Domains 3 and 4. statements like “either 1 or 3 objects have F ” (Concept 10 in Domain 4), or “2 or more objects have F ” (Concept 5 in Domain 4). Since quantification over features is not permitted, however, analogous statements (e.g. “object a has either 1 or 3 features”) cannot be formulated in Domain 3. Concept 10 corresponds to SHJ type VI, which often emerges as the most difficult concept in studies of Boolean concept learning. Our model therefore predicts that the standard ordering of the SHJ types will not apply in Domain 4. Our model also predicts that concepts assigned to the same SHJ type will have different complexities. In Domain 4 the model predicts that Concept 6 will be harder to learn than Concept 5 (both are examples of SHJ type IV), and that Concept 8 will be harder to learn than Concepts 7 or 9 (all three are examples of SHJ type V). Results. The computer interface recorded the amount of time participants spent on the learning phase for each concept. Domain 3 was a little more difficult than Domain 4 overall: on average, Domain 3 participants took 557 seconds and Domain 4 participants took 467 seconds to learn the 10 concepts. For all remaining analyses, we consider learning times that are normalized to sum to 1 for each participant. Figure 2b shows the mean values for these normalized times, and indicates the relative difficulties of the concepts within each condition. The difference plot in Figure 2b supports the two main predictions identified previously. Concepts 10 and 5 are the cases that differ most across the domains, and both concepts are easier to learn in Domain 3 than Domain 4. As predicted, Concept 5 is substantially easier than Concept 6 in Domain 4 even though both correspond to the same SHJ type. Concepts 7 through 9 also correspond to the same SHJ type, and the data for Domain 4 suggest that Concept 8 is the most difficult of the three, although the difference between Concepts 8 and 7 is not especially large. Four sets of complexity predictions are plotted against the human data in Figure 3. Boolean complexity and OQ complexity make identical predictions about Domain 3, and OQ complexity and OQ + F Q complexity make identical predictions about Domain 4. Only OQ complexity, however, accounts for the results observed in both domains. The concept descriptions generated by participants provide additional evidence that there are psychologically important differences between Domains 3 and 4. If the descriptions for concepts 5 and 10 are combined, 18 out of 20 responses in Domain 4 referred to quantification or counting. One representative description of Concept 5 stated that “red has multiple filled” and that “blue has one filled or none.” Only 3 of 20 responses in Domain 3 mentioned quantification. One representative description of Concept 5 stated that “red = multiple features” and that “blue = only one feature.” 7 r=0.84 0.2 r=0.84 0.2 r=0.26 0.2 r=0.26 0.2 Learning time (Domain 3) 0.1 0.1 0 (Domain 4) 0.2 r=0.27 0.2 Learning time 0.1 0.1 0 0.2 r=0.83 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 r=0.27 0.2 0.1 Boolean complexity 0.1 0.1 0.2 OQ complexity 0.1 0.2 r=0.83 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 F Q complexity 0 0.1 0.2 OQ + F Q complexity Figure 3: Normalized learning times for each domain plotted against normalized complexity values predicted by four languages: Boolean logic, OQ, F Q and OQ + F Q. These results suggest that people can count or quantify over features, but that it is psychologically more natural to quantify over objects rather than features. Although we have focused on three specific languages, the results in Figure 2b can be used to evaluate alternative proposals about the language of thought. One such alternative is an extension of Language OQ that allows feature values to be compared for equality. This extended language supports concise representations of Concept 2 in both Domain 3 (Fa = Ha ) and Domain 4 (Fa = Fc ), and predicts that Concept 2 will be easier to learn than all other concepts except Concept 1. Note, however, that this prediction is not compatible with the data in Figure 2b. Other languages might also be considered, but we know of no simple language that will account for our data better than OQ. 4 Conclusion Comparing concept learning across qualitatively different domains can provide valuable information about the nature of mental representation. We compared two domains that that are similar in many respects, but that differ according to whether they include a single object (Domain 3) or multiple objects (Domain 4). Quantification over objects is possible in Domain 4 but not Domain 3, and this difference helps to explain the different learning patterns we observed across the two domains. Our results suggest that concept representations can incorporate quantification, and that quantifying over objects is more natural than quantifying over features. The model predictions we reported are based on a language (OQ) that is a generic version of first order logic with equality. Our results therefore suggest that some of the languages commonly considered by logicians (e.g. first order logic with equality) may indeed capture some aspects of the “laws of thought” [16]. A simple language like OQ offers a convenient way to explore the role of quantification, but this language will need to be refined and extended in order to provide a more accurate account of mental representation. For example, a comprehensive account of the language of thought will need to support quantification over features in some cases, but might be formulated so that quantification over features is typically more costly than quantification over objects. Many possible representation languages can be imagined and a large amount of empirical data will be needed to identify the language that comes closest to the language of thought. Many relevant studies have already been conducted [2, 6, 8, 9, 13, 17], but there are vast regions of the conceptual universe (Table 1) that remain to be explored. Navigating this universe is likely to involve several challenges, but web-based experiments [18, 19] may allow it to be explored at a depth and scale that are currently unprecedented. Characterizing the language of thought is undoubtedly a long term project, but modern methods of data collection may support rapid progress towards this goal. Acknowledgments I thank Maureen Satyshur for running the experiment. This work was supported in part by NSF grant CDI-0835797. 8 References [1] J. A. Fodor. The language of thought. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1975. [2] J. Feldman. Minimization of Boolean complexity in human concept learning. Nature, 407: 630–633, 2000. [3] D. Fass and J. Feldman. Categorization under complexity: A unified MDL account of human learning of regular and irregular categories. In S. Thrun S. Becker and K. Obermayer, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 15, pages 35–34. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2003. [4] C. Kemp, N. D. Goodman, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Learning and using relational theories. In J.C. Platt, D. Koller, Y. Singer, and S. Roweis, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 753–760. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2008. [5] N. D. Goodman, J. B. Tenenbaum, J. Feldman, and T. L. Griffiths. A rational analysis of rule-based concept learning. Cognitive Science, 32(1):108–154, 2008. [6] R. N. Shepard, C. I. Hovland, and H. M. Jenkins. Learning and memorization of classifications. Psychological Monographs, 75(13), 1961. Whole No. 517. [7] R. M. Nosofsky, M. Gluck, T. J. Palmeri, S. C. McKinley, and P. Glauthier. Comparing models of rule-based classification learning: A replication and extension of Shepard, Hovland, and Jenkins (1961). Memory and Cognition, 22:352–369, 1994. [8] M. D. Lee and D. J. Navarro. Extending the ALCOVE model of category learning to featural stimulus domains. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 9(1):43–58, 2002. [9] C. D. Aitkin and J. Feldman. Subjective complexity of categories defined over three-valued features. In R. Sun and N. Miyake, editors, Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pages 961–966. Psychology Press, New York, 2006. [10] F. Mathy and J. Bradmetz. A theory of the graceful complexification of concepts and their learnability. Current Psychology of Cognition, 22(1):41–82, 2004. [11] R. Vigo. A note on the complexity of Boolean concepts. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50:501–510, 2006. [12] Y. Sakamoto and B. C. Love. Schematic influences on category learning and recognition memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133(4):534–553, 2004. [13] W. H. Crockett. Balance, agreement and positivity in the cognition of small social structures. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol 15, pages 1–57. Academic Press, 1982. [14] N. B. Cottrell. Heider’s structural balance principle as a conceptual rule. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31(4):713–720, 1975. [15] H. B. Enderton. A mathematical introduction to logic. Academic Press, New York, 1972. [16] G. Boole. An investigation of the laws of thought on which are founded the mathematical theories of logic and probabilities. 1854. [17] B. C. Love and A. B. Markman. The nonindependence of stimulus properties in human category learning. Memory and Cognition, 31(5):790–799, 2003. [18] L. von Ahn. Games with a purpose. Computer, 39(6):92–94, 2006. [19] R. Snow, B. O’Connor, D. Jurafsky, and A. Ng. Cheap and fast–but is it good? Evaluating non-expert annotations for natural language tasks. In Proceedings of the 2008 Conference on empirical methods in natural language processing, pages 254–263. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2008. 9

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Author: Charles Kemp, Alan Jern, Fei Xu

Abstract: Humans are typically able to infer how many objects their environment contains and to recognize when the same object is encountered twice. We present a simple statistical model that helps to explain these abilities and evaluate it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment suggests that humans rely on prior knowledge when deciding whether an object token has been previously encountered. Our second and third experiments suggest that humans can infer how many objects they have seen and can learn about categories and their properties even when they are uncertain about which tokens are instances of the same object. From an early age, humans and other animals [1] appear to organize the flux of experience into a series of encounters with discrete and persisting objects. Consider, for example, a young child who grows up in a home with two dogs. At a relatively early age the child will solve the problem of object discovery and will realize that her encounters with dogs correspond to views of two individuals rather than one or three. The child will also solve the problem of identification, and will be able to reliably identify an individual (e.g. Fido) each time it is encountered. This paper presents a Bayesian approach that helps to explain both object discovery and identification. Bayesian models are appealing in part because they help to explain how inferences are guided by prior knowledge. Imagine, for example, that you see some photographs taken by your friends Alice and Bob. The first shot shows Alice sitting next to a large statue and eating a sandwich, and the second is similar but features Bob rather than Alice. The statues in each photograph look identical, and probably you will conclude that the two photographs are representations of the same statue. The sandwiches in the photographs also look identical, but probably you will conclude that the photographs show different sandwiches. The prior knowledge that contributes to these inferences appears rather complex, but we will explore some much simpler cases where prior knowledge guides identification. A second advantage of Bayesian models is that they help to explain how learners cope with uncertainty. In some cases a learner may solve the problem of object discovery but should maintain uncertainty when faced with identification problems. For example, I may be quite certain that I have met eight different individuals at a dinner party, even if I am unable to distinguish between two guests who are identical twins. In other cases a learner may need to reason about several related problems even if there is no definitive solution to any one of them. Consider, for example, a young child who must simultaneously discover which objects her world contains (e.g. Mother, Father, Fido, and Rex) and organize them into categories (e.g. people and dogs). Many accounts of categorization seem to implicitly assume that the problem of identification must be solved before categorization can begin, but we will see that a probabilistic approach can address both problems simultaneously. Identification and object discovery have been discussed by researchers from several disciplines, including psychology [2, 3, 4, 5, 6], machine learning [7, 8], statistics [9], and philosophy [10]. Many machine learning approaches can handle identity uncertainty, or uncertainty about whether two tokens correspond to the same object. Some approaches such such as BLOG [8] are able in addition to handle problems where the number of objects is not specified in advance. We propose 1 that some of these approaches can help to explain human learning, and this paper uses a simple BLOG-style approach [8] to account for human inferences. There are several existing psychological models of identification, and the work of Shepard [11], Nosofsky [3] and colleagues is probably the most prominent. Models in this tradition usually focus on problems where the set of objects is specified in advance and where identity uncertainty arises as a result of perceptual noise. In contrast, we focus on problems where the number of objects must be inferred and where identity uncertainty arises from partial observability rather than noise. A separate psychological tradition focuses on problems where the number of objects is not fixed in advance. Developmental psychologists, for example, have used displays where only one object token is visible at any time to explore whether young infants can infer how many different objects have been observed in total [4]. Our work emphasizes some of the same themes as this developmental research, but we go beyond previous work in this area by presenting and evaluating a computational approach to object identification and discovery. The problem of deciding how many objects have been observed is sometimes called individuation [12] but here we treat individuation as a special case of object discovery. Note, however, that object discovery can also refer to cases where learners infer the existence of objects that have never been observed. Unobserved-object discovery has received relatively little attention in the psychological literature, but is addressed by statistical models including including species-sampling models [9] and capture-recapture models [13]. Simple statistical models of this kind will not address some of the most compelling examples of unobserved-object discovery, such as the discovery of the planet Neptune, or the ability to infer the existence of a hidden object by following another person’s gaze [14]. We will show, however, that a simple statistical approach helps to explain how humans infer the existence of objects that they have never seen. 1 A probabilistic account of object discovery and identification Object discovery and identification may depend on many kinds of observations and may be supported by many kinds of prior knowledge. This paper considers a very simple setting where these problems can be explored. Suppose that an agent is learning about a world that contains nw white balls and n − nw gray balls. Let f (oi ) indicate the color of ball oi , where each ball is white (f (oi ) = 1) or gray (f (oi ) = 0). An agent learns about the world by observing a sequence of object tokens. Suppose that label l(j) is a unique identifier of token j—in other words, suppose that the jth token is a token of object ol(j) . Suppose also that the jth token is observed to have feature value g(j). Note the difference between f and g: f is a vector that specifies the color of the n balls in the world, and g is a vector that specifies the color of the object tokens observed thus far. We define a probability distribution over token sequences by assuming that a world is sampled from a prior P (n, nw ) and that tokens are sampled from this world. The full generative model is: P (n) ∝ 1 n 0 if n ≤ 1000 otherwise nw | n ∼ Uniform(0, n) l(j) | n ∼ Uniform(1, n) g(j) = f (ol(j) ) (1) (2) (3) (4) A prior often used for inferences about a population of unknown size is the scale-invariant Jeffreys 1 prior P (n) = n [15]. We follow this standard approach here but truncate at n = 1000. Choosing some upper bound is convenient when implementing the model, and has the advantage of producing a prior that is proper (note that the Jeffreys prior is improper). Equation 2 indicates that the number of white balls nw is sampled from a discrete uniform distribution. Equation 3 indicates that each token is generated by sampling one of the n balls in the world uniformly at random, and Equation 4 indicates that the color of each token is observed without noise. The generative assumptions just described can be used to define a probabilistic approach to object discovery and identification. Suppose that the observations available to a learner consist of a fully-observed feature vector g and a partially-observed label vector lobs . Object discovery and identification can be addressed by using the posterior distribution P (l|g, lobs ) to make inferences about the number of distinct objects observed and about the identity of each token. Computing the posterior distribution P (n|g, lobs ) allows the learner to make inferences about the total number of objects 2 in the world. In some cases, the learner may solve the problem of unobserved-object discovery by realizing that the world contains more objects than she has observed thus far. The next sections explore the idea that the inferences made by humans correspond approximately to the inferences of this ideal learner. Since the ideal learner allows for the possible existence of objects that have not yet been observed, we refer to our model as the open world model. Although we make no claim about the psychological mechanisms that might allow humans to approximate the predictions of the ideal learner, in practice we need some method for computing the predictions of our model. Since the domains we consider are relatively small, all results in this paper were computed by enumerating and summing over the complete set of possible worlds. 2 Experiment 1: Prior knowledge and identification The introduction described a scenario (the statue and sandwiches example) where prior knowledge appears to guide identification. Our first experiment explores a very simple instance of this idea. We consider a setting where participants observe balls that are sampled with replacement from an urn. In one condition, participants sample the same ball from the urn on four consecutive occasions and are asked to predict whether the token observed on the fifth draw is the same ball that they saw on the first draw. In a second condition participants are asked exactly the same question about the fifth token but sample four different balls on the first four draws. We expect that these different patterns of data will shape the prior beliefs that participants bring to the identification problem involving the fifth token, and that participants in the first condition will be substantially more likely to identify the fifth token as a ball that they have seen before. Although we consider an abstract setting involving balls and urns the problem we explore has some real-world counterparts. Suppose, for example, that a colleague wears the same tie to four formal dinners. Based on this evidence you might be able to estimate the total number of ties that he owns, and might guess that he is less likely to wear a new tie to the next dinner than a colleague who wore different ties to the first four dinners. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. Participants interacted with a computer interface that displayed an urn, a robotic arm and a beam of UV light. The arm randomly sampled balls from the urn, and participants were told that each ball had a unique serial number that was visible only under UV light. After some balls were sampled, the robotic arm moved them under the UV light and revealed their serial numbers before returning them to the urn. Other balls were returned directly to the urn without having their serial numbers revealed. The serial numbers were alphanumeric strings such as “QXR182”—note that these serial numbers provide no information about the total number of objects, and that our setting is therefore different from the Jeffreys tramcar problem [15]. The experiment included five within-participant conditions shown in Figure 1. The observations for each condition can be summarized by a string that indicates the number of tokens and the serial numbers of some but perhaps not all tokens. The 1 1 1 1 1 condition in Figure 1a is a case where the same ball (without loss of generality, we call it ball 1) is drawn from the urn on five consecutive occasions. The 1 2 3 4 5 condition in Figure 1b is a case where five different balls are drawn from the urn. The 1 condition in Figure 1d is a case where five draws are made, but only the serial number of the first ball is revealed. Within any of the five conditions, all of the balls had the same color (white or gray), but different colors were used across different conditions. For simplicity, all draws in Figure 1 are shown as white balls. On the second and all subsequent draws, participants were asked two questions about any token that was subsequently identified. They first indicated whether the token was likely to be the same as the ball they observed on the first draw (the ball labeled 1 in Figure 1). They then indicated whether the token was likely to be a ball that they had never seen before. Both responses were provided on a scale from 1 (very unlikely) to 7 (very likely). At the end of each condition, participants were asked to estimate the total number of balls in the urn. Twelve options were provided ranging from “exactly 1” to “exactly 12,” and a thirteenth option was labeled “more than 12.” Responses to each option were again provided on a seven point scale. Model predictions and results. The comparisons of primary interest involve the identification questions in conditions 1a and 1b. In condition 1a the open world model infers that the total number of balls is probably low, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is the same as the 3 a) b) 1 1 1 1 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 2 3 4 5 ? = (1) ?NEW = NEW BALL 1 BALL (1) NEW 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 Open world 7 5 0.66 DP mixture 7 5 0.66 PY mixture Human 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 1 1 0.66 0.66 0.33 0.33 0 0 7 13 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 1 # Balls 1 # Balls 0.66 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? d) e) 5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 13 13 9 9 9 5 5 5 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 Human 1 1 ? (1)(?) 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) (1)(2)(3)(?) 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(4)(?) 1 2 3 4 ? 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 0 1 ? (1)(?) 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) (1)(1)(1)(1)(?) 1 1 1 1 ? 0.33 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 Open world c) 1 # Balls Figure 1: Model predictions and results for the five conditions in experiment 1. The left columns in (a) and (b) show inferences about the identification questions. In each plot, the first group of bars shows predictions about the probability that each new token is the same ball as the first ball drawn from the urn. The second group of bars shows the probability that each new token is a ball that has never been seen before. The right columns in (a) and (b) and the plots in (c) through (e) show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. All human responses are shown on the 1-7 scale used for the experiment. Model predictions are shown as probabilities (identification questions) or ranks (population size questions). first object observed. In condition 1b the model infers that the number of balls is probably high, and becomes increasingly confident that each new token is probably a new ball. The rightmost charts in Figures 1a and 1b show inferences about the total number of balls and confirm that humans expect the number of balls to be low in condition 1a and high in condition 1b. Note that participants in condition 1b have solved the problem of unobserved-object discovery and inferred the existence of objects that they have never seen. The leftmost charts in 1a and 1b show responses to the identification questions, and the final bar in each group of four shows predictions about the fifth token sampled. As predicted by the model, participants in 1a become increasingly confident that each new token is the same object as the first token, but participants in 1b become increasingly confident that each new token is a new object. The increase in responses to the new ball questions in Figure 1b is replicated in conditions 2d and 2e of Experiment 2, and therefore appears to be reliable. 4 The third and fourth rows of Figures 1a and 1b show the predictions of two alternative models that are intuitively appealing but that fail to account for our results. The first is the Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture model, which was proposed by Anderson [16] as an account of human categorization. Unlike most psychological models of categorization, the DP mixture model reserves some probability mass for outcomes that have not yet been observed. The model incorporates a prior distribution over partitions—in most applications of the model these partitions organize objects into categories, but Anderson suggests that the model can also be used to organize object tokens into classes that correspond to individual objects. The DP mixture model successfully predicts that the ball 1 questions will receive higher ratings in 1a than 1b, but predicts that responses to the new ball question will be identical across these two conditions. According to this model, the probability that a new token θ corresponds to a new object is m+θ where θ is a hyperparameter and m is the number of tokens observed thus far. Note that this probability is the same regardless of the identities of the m tokens previously observed. The Pitman Yor (PY) mixture model in the fourth row is a generalization of the DP mixture model that uses a prior over partitions defined by two hyperparameters [17]. According to this model, the probability that a new token corresponds to a new object is θ+kα , where θ and α are hyperparameters m+θ and k is the number of distinct objects observed so far. The flexibility offered by a second hyperparameter allows the model to predict a difference in responses to the new ball questions across the two conditions, but the model does not account for the increasing pattern observed in condition 1b. Most settings of θ and α predict that the responses to the new ball questions will decrease in condition 1b. A non-generic setting of these hyperparameters with θ = 0 can generate the flat predictions in Figure 1, but no setting of the hyperparameters predicts the increase in the human responses. Although the PY and DP models both make predictions about the identification questions, neither model can predict the total number of balls in the urn. Both models assume that the population of balls is countably infinite, which does not seem appropriate for the tasks we consider. Figures 1c through 1d show results for three control conditions. Like condition 1a, 1c and 1d are cases where exactly one serial number is observed. Like conditions 1a and 1b, 1d and 1e are cases where exactly five tokens are observed. None of these control conditions produces results similar to conditions 1a and 1b, suggesting that methods which simply count the number of tokens or serial numbers will not account for our results. In each of the final three conditions our model predicts that the posterior distribution on the number of balls n should decay as n increases. This prediction is not consistent with our data, since most participants assigned equal ratings to all 13 options, including “exactly 12 balls” and “more than 12 balls.” The flat responses in Figures 1c through 1e appear to indicate a generic desire to express uncertainty, and suggest that our ideal learner model accounts for human responses only after several informative observations have been made. 3 Experiment 2: Object discovery and identity uncertainty Our second experiment focuses on object discovery rather than identification. We consider cases where learners make inferences about the number of objects they have seen and the total number of objects in the urn even though there is substantial uncertainty about the identities of many of the tokens observed. Our probabilistic model predicts that observations of unidentified tokens can influence inferences about the total number of objects, and our second experiment tests this prediction. Method. 12 adults participated for course credit. The same participants took part in Experiments 1 and 2, and Experiment 2 was always completed after Experiment 1. Participants interacted with the same computer interface in both conditions, and the seven conditions in Experiment 2 are shown in Figure 2. Note that each condition now includes one or more gray tokens. In 2a, for example, there are four gray tokens and none of these tokens is identified. All tokens were sampled with replacement, and the condition labels in Figure 2 summarize the complete set of tokens presented in each condition. Within each condition the tokens were presented in a pseudo-random order—in 2a, for example, the gray and white tokens were interspersed with each other. Model predictions and results. The cases of most interest are the inferences about the total number of balls in conditions 2a and 2c. In both conditions participants observe exactly four white tokens and all four tokens are revealed to be the same ball. The gray tokens in each condition are never identified, but the number of these tokens varies across the conditions. Even though the identities 5 a) ?NEW = NEW 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 7 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 7 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 # Balls c) 1 2 3 4 ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 0.66 9 0.33 5 0.33 5 0 1 0 1 e) ? = (1) BALL 1 ?NEW = NEW 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 # Balls g) 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 13 1 13 1 13 0.66 9 9 9 0.33 5 5 5 0 1 1 1 # Balls # Balls 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 7 5 [ ]x1 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x3 x3 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) Human 7 Open world f) 1 2 3 4 7 (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) # Balls (1)(?) x1 1 ? [ ]x1x1 1 2 ? (1)(2)(?) [ ]x1 x1 1 2 3 ? (1)(2)(3)(?) 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 5 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? [ ]x6x6 1 1 ? (1)(1)(?) [ ]x9 x9 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 7 Human ?NEW = NEW Open world 7 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls d) 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 9 0.33 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 13 0.66 [ ]x3 (1)(?) x3 1 ? 1 9 1 3 5 7 9 11 +12 13 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) 1 0.66 [ ]x2 (1)(?) x2 1 ? [ ]x3 (1)(1)(?) x3 1 1 ? [ ]x3x3 1 1 1 ? (1)(1)(1)(?) Human 7 Open world b) 1 1 1 1 ? = (1) BALL 1 # Balls Figure 2: Model predictions and results for the seven conditions in Experiment 2. The left columns in (a) through (e) show inferences about the identification questions, and the remaining plots show inferences about the total number of balls in each urn. of the gray tokens are never revealed, the open world model can use these observations to guide its inference about the total number of balls. In 2a, the proportions of white tokens and gray tokens are equal and there appears to be only one white ball, suggesting that the total number of balls is around two. In 2c grey tokens are now three times more common, suggesting that the total number of balls is larger than two. As predicted, the human responses in Figure 2 show that the peak of the distribution in 2a shifts to the right in 2c. Note, however, that the model does not accurately predict the precise location of the peak in 2c. Some of the remaining conditions in Figure 2 serve as controls for the comparison between 2a and 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c differ in the total number of tokens observed, but condition 2b shows that 6 this difference is not the critical factor. The number of tokens observed is the same across 2b and 2c, yet the inference in 2b is more similar to the inference in 2a than in 2c. Conditions 2a and 2c also differ in the proportion of white tokens observed, but conditions 2f and 2g show that this difference is not sufficient to explain our results. The proportion of white tokens observed is the same across conditions 2a, 2f, and 2g, yet only 2a provides strong evidence that the total number of balls is low. The human inferences for 2f and 2g show the hint of an alternating pattern consistent with the inference that the total number of balls in the urn is even. Only 2 out of 12 participants generated this pattern, however, and the majority of responses are near uniform. Finally, conditions 2d and 2e replicate our finding from Experiment 1 that the identity labels play an important role. The only difference between 2a and 2e is that the four labels are distinct in the latter case, and this single difference produces a predictable divergence in human inferences about the total number of balls. 4 Experiment 3: Categorization and identity uncertainty Experiment 2 suggested that people make robust inferences about the existence and number of unobserved objects in the presence of identity uncertainty. Our final experiment explores categorization in the presence of identity uncertainty. We consider an extreme case where participants make inferences about the variability of a category even though the tokens of that category have never been identified. Method. The experiment included two between subject conditions, and 20 adults were recruited for each condition. Participants were asked to reason about a category including eggs of a given species, where eggs in the same category might vary in size. The interface used in Experiments 1 and 2 was adapted so that the urn now contained two kinds of objects: notepads and eggs. Participants were told that each notepad had a unique color and a unique label written on the front. The UV light played no role in the experiment and was removed from the interface: notepads could be identified by visual inspection, and identifying labels for the eggs were never shown. In both conditions participants observed a sequence of 16 tokens sampled from the urn. Half of the tokens were notepads and the others were eggs, and all egg tokens were identical in size. Whenever an egg was sampled, participants were told that this egg was a Kwiba egg. At the end of the condition, participants were shown a set of 11 eggs that varied in size and asked to rate the probability that each one was a Kwiba egg. Participants then made inferences about the total number of eggs and the total number of notepads in the urn. The two conditions were intended to lead to different inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. In the 4 egg condition, all items (notepad and eggs) were sampled with replacement. The 8 notepad tokens included two tokens of each of 4 notepads, suggesting that the total number of notepads was 4. Since the proportion of egg tokens and notepad tokens was equal, we expected participants to infer that the total number of eggs was roughly four. In the 1 egg condition, four notepads were observed in total, but the first three were sampled without replacement and never returned to the urn. The final notepad and the egg tokens were always sampled with replacement. After the first three notepads had been removed from the urn, the remaining notepad was sampled about half of the time. We therefore expected participants to infer that the urn probably contained a single notepad and a single egg by the end of the experiment, and that all of the eggs they had observed were tokens of a single object. Model. We can simultaneously address identification and categorization by combining the open world model with a Gaussian model of categorization. Suppose that the members of a given category (e.g. Kwiba eggs) vary along a single continuous dimension (e.g. size). We assume that the egg sizes are distributed according to a Gaussian with known mean and unknown variance σ 2 . For convenience, we assume that the mean is zero (i.e. we measure size with respect to the average) and β use the standard inverse-gamma prior on the variance: p(σ 2 ) ∝ (σ 2 )−(α+1) e− σ2 . Since we are interested only in qualitative predictions of the model, the precise values of the hyperparameters are not very important. To generate the results shown in Figure 3 we set α = 0.5 and β = 2. Before observing any eggs, the marginal distribution on sizes is p(x) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 )dσ 2 . Suppose now that we observe m random samples from the category and that each one has size zero. If m is large then these observations provide strong evidence that the variance σ 2 is small, and the posterior distribution p(x|m) will be tightly peaked around zero. If m, is small, however, then the posterior distribution will be broader. 7 2 − Category pdf (1 egg) 1 2 1 0 0 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1 = p4 (x) − p1 (x) Category pdf (4 eggs) p1 (x) p4 (x) a) Model differences 0.1 0 −0.1 −2 0 2 x (size) Human differences 12 8 10 6 4 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 −0.4 2 12 8 10 6 4 2 −2 0 2 x (size) −2 0 2 x (size) b) Number of eggs (4 eggs) Number of eggs (1 egg) c) −4 −2 0 2 4 (size) Figure 3: (a) Model predictions for Experiment 3. The first two panels show the size distributions inferred for the two conditions, and the final panel shows the difference of these distributions. The difference curve for the model rises to a peak of around 1.6 but has been truncated at 0.1. (b) Human inferences about the total number of eggs in the urn. As predicted, participants in the 4 egg condition believe that the urn contains more eggs. (c) The difference of the size distributions generated by participants in each condition. The central peak is absent but otherwise the curve is qualitatively similar to the model prediction. The categorization model described so far is entirely standard, but note that our experiment considers a case where T , the observed stream of object tokens, is not sufficient to determine m, the number of distinct objects observed. We therefore use the open world model to generate a posterior distribution over m, and compute a marginal distribution over size by integrating out both m and σ 2 : p(x|T ) = p(x|σ 2 )p(σ 2 |m)p(m|T )dσ 2 dm. Figure 3a shows predictions of this “open world + Gaussian” model for the two conditions in our experiment. Note that the difference between the curves for the two conditions has the characteristic Mexican-hat shape produced by a difference of Gaussians. Results. Inferences about the total number of eggs suggested that our manipulation succeeded. Figure 3b indicates that participants in the 4 egg condition believed that they had seen more eggs than participants in the 1 egg condition. Participants in both conditions generated a size distribution for the category of Kwiba eggs, and the difference of these distributions is shown in Figure 3c. Although the magnitude of the differences is small, the shape of the difference curve is consistent with the model predictions. The x = 0 bar is the only case that diverges from the expected Mexican hat shape, and this result is probably due to a ceiling effect—80% of participants in both conditions chose the maximum possible rating for the egg with mean size (size zero), leaving little opportunity for a difference between conditions to emerge. To support the qualitative result in Figure 3c we computed the variance of the curve generated by each individual participant and tested the hypothesis that the variances were greater in the 1 egg condition than in the 4 egg condition. A Mann-Whitney test indicated that this difference was marginally significant (p < 0.1, one-sided). 5 Conclusion Parsing the world into stable and recurring objects is arguably our most basic cognitive achievement [2, 10]. This paper described a simple model of object discovery and identification and evaluated it in three behavioral experiments. Our first experiment confirmed that people rely on prior knowledge when solving identification problems. Our second and third experiments explored problems where the identities of many object tokens were never revealed. Despite the resulting uncertainty, we found that participants in these experiments were able to track the number of objects they had seen, to infer the existence of unobserved objects, and to learn and reason about categories. Although the tasks in our experiments were all relatively simple, future work can apply our approach to more realistic settings. For example, a straightforward extension of our model can handle problems where objects vary along multiple perceptual dimensions and where observations are corrupted by perceptual noise. Discovery and identification problems may take several different forms, but probabilistic inference can help to explain how all of these problems are solved. Acknowledgments We thank Bobby Han, Faye Han and Maureen Satyshur for running the experiments. 8 References [1] E. A. Tibbetts and J. Dale. Individual recognition: it is good to be different. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22(10):529–237, 2007. [2] W. James. Principles of psychology. Holt, New York, 1890. [3] R. M. Nosofsky. Attention, similarity, and the identification-categorization relationship. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 115:39–57, 1986. [4] F. Xu and S. Carey. Infants’ metaphysics: the case of numerical identity. Cognitive Psychology, 30:111–153, 1996. [5] L. W. Barsalou, J. Huttenlocher, and K. Lamberts. Basing categorization on individuals and events. Cognitive Psychology, 36:203–272, 1998. [6] L. J. Rips, S. Blok, and G. Newman. Tracing the identity of objects. Psychological Review, 113(1):1–30, 2006. [7] A. McCallum and B. Wellner. Conditional models of identity uncertainty with application to noun coreference. In L. K. Saul, Y. Weiss, and L. Bottou, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 905–912. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. [8] B. Milch, B. Marthi, S. Russell, D. Sontag, D. L. Ong, and A. Kolobov. BLOG: Probabilistic models with unknown objects. In Proceedings of the 19th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 1352–1359, 2005. [9] J. Bunge and M. Fitzpatrick. Estimating the number of species: a review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(421):364–373, 1993. [10] R. G. Millikan. On clear and confused ideas: an essay about substance concepts. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2000. [11] R. N. Shepard. Stimulus and response generalization: a stochastic model relating generalization to distance in psychological space. Psychometrika, 22:325–345, 1957. [12] A. M. Leslie, F. Xu, P. D. Tremoulet, and B. J. Scholl. Indexing and the object concept: developing ‘what’ and ‘where’ systems. Trends in Cognitive Science, 2(1):10–18, 1998. [13] J. D. Nichols. Capture-recapture models. Bioscience, 42(2):94–102, 1992. [14] G. Csibra and A. Volein. Infants can infer the presence of hidden objects from referential gaze information. British Journal of Developmental Psychology, 26:1–11, 2008. [15] H. Jeffreys. Theory of Probability. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1961. [16] J. R. Anderson. The adaptive nature of human categorization. Psychological Review, 98(3): 409–429, 1991. [17] J. Pitman. Combinatorial stochastic processes, 2002. Notes for Saint Flour Summer School. 9

2 0.53792244 110 nips-2009-Hierarchical Mixture of Classification Experts Uncovers Interactions between Brain Regions

Author: Bangpeng Yao, Dirk Walther, Diane Beck, Li Fei-fei

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