nips nips2001 nips2001-79 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

79 nips-2001-Gaussian Process Regression with Mismatched Models


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Author: Peter Sollich

Abstract: Learning curves for Gaussian process regression are well understood when the 'student' model happens to match the 'teacher' (true data generation process). I derive approximations to the learning curves for the more generic case of mismatched models, and find very rich behaviour: For large input space dimensionality, where the results become exact, there are universal (student-independent) plateaux in the learning curve, with transitions in between that can exhibit arbitrarily many over-fitting maxima; over-fitting can occur even if the student estimates the teacher noise level correctly. In lower dimensions, plateaux also appear, and the learning curve remains dependent on the mismatch between student and teacher even in the asymptotic limit of a large number of training examples. Learning with excessively strong smoothness assumptions can be particularly dangerous: For example, a student with a standard radial basis function covariance function will learn a rougher teacher function only logarithmically slowly. All predictions are confirmed by simulations. 1

Reference: text


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 uk Abstract Learning curves for Gaussian process regression are well understood when the 'student' model happens to match the 'teacher' (true data generation process). [sent-6, score-0.177]

2 In lower dimensions, plateaux also appear, and the learning curve remains dependent on the mismatch between student and teacher even in the asymptotic limit of a large number of training examples. [sent-8, score-1.229]

3 Learning with excessively strong smoothness assumptions can be particularly dangerous: For example, a student with a standard radial basis function covariance function will learn a rougher teacher function only logarithmically slowly. [sent-9, score-1.24]

4 1 Introduction There has in the last few years been a good deal of excitement about the use of Gaussian processes (GPs) as an alternative to feedforward networks [1]. [sent-11, score-0.088]

5 GPs make prior assumptions about the problem to be learned very transparent, and even though they are non-parametric models, inference- at least in the case of regression considered below- is relatively straightforward. [sent-12, score-0.182]

6 how many training examples are needed to achieve a certain level of generalization performance. [sent-15, score-0.154]

7 The typical (as opposed to worst case) behaviour is captured in the learning curve, which gives the average generalization error t as a function of the number of training examples n. [sent-16, score-0.302]

8 Good bounds and approximations for t(n) are now available [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], but these are mostly restricted to the case where the 'student' model exactly matches the true 'teacher' generating the datal. [sent-17, score-0.143]

9 In practice, such a match is unlikely, and so it is lThe exception is the elegant work of Malzahn and Opper [2], which uses a statistical physics framework to derive approximate learning curves that also apply for any fixed target function. [sent-18, score-0.186]

10 However, this framework has not yet to my knowledge been exploited to important to understand how GPs learn if there is some model mismatch. [sent-19, score-0.084]

11 In its simplest form , the regression problem is this: We are trying to learn a function B* which maps inputs x (real-valued vectors) to (real-valued scalar) outputs B*(x). [sent-21, score-0.322]

12 We are given a set of training data D , consisting of n input-output pairs (xl, yl) ; the training outputs yl may differ from the 'clean' teacher outputs B*(x l ) due to corruption by noise. [sent-22, score-1.057]

13 Given a test input x, we are then asked to come up with a prediction B(x), plus error bar, for the corresponding output B(x). [sent-23, score-0.136]

14 In a Bayesian setting, we do this by specifying a prior P(B) over hypothesis functions , and a likelihood P(DIB) with which each B could have generated the training data; from this we deduce the posterior distribution P(BID) ex P(DIB)P(B). [sent-24, score-0.384]

15 For a GP, the prior is defined directly over input-output functions B; this is simpler than for a Bayesian feedforward net since no weights are involved which would have to be integrated out. [sent-25, score-0.209]

16 Any B is uniquely determined by its output values B(x) for all x from the input domain, and for a GP, these are assumed to have a joint Gaussian distribution (hence the name). [sent-26, score-0.133]

17 If we set the means to zero as is commonly done, this distribution is fully specified by the covariance function (B(x)B(xl))o = C(X,XI). [sent-27, score-0.087]

18 The latter transparently encodes prior assumptions about the function to be learned. [sent-28, score-0.171]

19 Here I is a lengthscale parameter, corresponding directly to the distance in input space over which we expect significant variation in the function values. [sent-30, score-0.057]

20 1 There are good reviews on how inference with GPs works [1 , 6], so I only give a brief summary here. [sent-31, score-0.036]

21 The student assumes that outputs y are generated from the 'clean' values of a hypothesis function B(x) by adding Gaussian noise of xindependent variance (J2. [sent-32, score-0.644]

22 where in the last expression I have replaced the average over D by one over the training inputs since the outputs no longer appear. [sent-36, score-0.364]

23 If the student model matches the true teacher model, E and € coincide and give the Bayes error, i. [sent-37, score-1.022]

24 the best achievable (average) generalization performance for the given teacher. [sent-39, score-0.081]

25 I assume in what follows that the teacher is also a GP, but with a possibly different covariance function C* (x, x') and noise level (}";. [sent-40, score-0.597]

26 (3) for E to be simplified, since by exact analogy with the argument for the student posterior (()*(x )k iD = k* (x) TK :;-1 y , ((); (x) )O. [sent-42, score-0.579]

27 A more convenient starting point is obtained if (using Mercer's theorem) we decompose the covariance function into its eigenfunctions ¢i(X) and eigenvalues Ai, defined w. [sent-45, score-0.297]

28 the input distribution so that (C(x, X') ¢i (X') )x' = Ai¢i(X) with the corresponding normalization (¢i(X)¢j(x))x = bij. [sent-48, score-0.057]

29 Then 00 00 i=1 i=1 For simplicity I assume here that the student and teacher covariance functions have the same eigenfunctions (but different eigenvalues). [sent-49, score-1.091]

30 This is not as restrictive as it may seem; several examples are given below. [sent-50, score-0.034]

31 The averages over the test input x in (5) are now easily carried out: E . [sent-51, score-0.057]

32 for the last term we need ((k( x) k(x)T)lm)x = L AiAj¢i(Xl)(¢i(X)¢j (x))x¢j (xm) = L A7¢i(X l )¢i(Xm) i ij Introducing the diagonal eigenvalue matrix (A)ij = Aibij and the 'design matrix ' ( A2 T . [sent-53, score-0.074]


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