nips nips2008 nips2008-224 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

224 nips-2008-Structured ranking learning using cumulative distribution networks


Source: pdf

Author: Jim C. Huang, Brendan J. Frey

Abstract: Ranking is at the heart of many information retrieval applications. Unlike standard regression or classification in which we predict outputs independently, in ranking we are interested in predicting structured outputs so that misranking one object can significantly affect whether we correctly rank the other objects. In practice, the problem of ranking involves a large number of objects to be ranked and either approximate structured prediction methods are required, or assumptions of independence between object scores must be made in order to make the problem tractable. We present a probabilistic method for learning to rank using the graphical modelling framework of cumulative distribution networks (CDNs), where we can take into account the structure inherent to the problem of ranking by modelling the joint cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) over multiple pairwise preferences. We apply our framework to the problem of document retrieval in the case of the OHSUMED benchmark dataset. We will show that the RankNet, ListNet and ListMLE probabilistic models can be viewed as particular instances of CDNs and that our proposed framework allows for the exploration of a broad class of flexible structured loss functionals for learning to rank. 1

Reference: text


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Unlike standard regression or classification in which we predict outputs independently, in ranking we are interested in predicting structured outputs so that misranking one object can significantly affect whether we correctly rank the other objects. [sent-8, score-0.597]

2 In practice, the problem of ranking involves a large number of objects to be ranked and either approximate structured prediction methods are required, or assumptions of independence between object scores must be made in order to make the problem tractable. [sent-9, score-0.634]

3 We apply our framework to the problem of document retrieval in the case of the OHSUMED benchmark dataset. [sent-11, score-0.146]

4 We will show that the RankNet, ListNet and ListMLE probabilistic models can be viewed as particular instances of CDNs and that our proposed framework allows for the exploration of a broad class of flexible structured loss functionals for learning to rank. [sent-12, score-0.293]

5 1 Introduction Ranking is the central problem for many information retrieval applications such as web search, collaborative filtering and document retrieval [8]. [sent-13, score-0.125]

6 In these problems, we are given a set of objects to be ranked and a series of observations where each observation consists of some subset of the objects, a feature vector and some ordering of the objects with highly ranked objects corresponding to a higher relevance or degree of importance. [sent-14, score-0.635]

7 The goal is to then learn a model which allows us to assign a score to new test objects: this often takes the form of a ranking function [2, 4] which assigns a higher score to objects with higher rankings. [sent-15, score-0.345]

8 This requires measures of loss which are multivariate and structured. [sent-17, score-0.106]

9 However, such ranking measures are typically difficult to optimize directly [3], making the problem of learning difficult. [sent-18, score-0.255]

10 A previous approach has been to treat the problem as one of structured prediction [7], where the aim is to directly optimize ranking measures. [sent-19, score-0.362]

11 Another approach has been to approximate these ranking measures with smooth differentiable loss functionals by formulating probabilistic models on pairwise preferences between objects (RankNet; [2]), or on ordered lists of objects (ListNet and ListMLE; [4, 13]). [sent-20, score-0.895]

12 In practice, these methods either require approximating a learning problem with an intractable number of constraints, or they require observations containing complete orderings over the objects to be ranked or one must make independence assumptions on pairwise preferences. [sent-21, score-0.458]

13 We will show that 1) a probability over orderings is equivalent to a probability over pairwise inequalities between objects to be ranked and 2) this amounts to specifying a joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) over pairwise object preferences. [sent-23, score-0.648]

14 We will present a framework for ranking using the recently-developed probabilistic graphical modelling framework of CDNs which compactly represents this joint CDF as a product of local functions [5]. [sent-24, score-0.504]

15 While the problem of inference in CDNs was addressed in [5], here we address the problem of learning in CDNs in the context of ranking learning where we estimate model parameters under a structured loss functional that accounts for dependencies between pairwise object preferences. [sent-25, score-0.668]

16 We will then test the proposed framework on the OHSUMED dataset [8], a benchmark dataset used in information retrieval research. [sent-26, score-0.169]

17 Finally we will show that the frameworks proposed by [2, 4, 13] can be viewed as particular types of CDNs so that novel classes of flexible structured loss functionals for ranking learning can be specified under our framework. [sent-27, score-0.517]

18 2 Cumulative distribution networks The CDN [5] is an undirected graphical model in which the joint CDF F (z) over a set of random variables is represented as a product over functions defined over subsets of these variables. [sent-28, score-0.126]

19 An example of a CDN is shown in Figure 1(a), along with an example bivariate density which can be obtained by differentiating a product of 2 Gaussian CDF functions (Figure 1(b)). [sent-30, score-0.11]

20 Thus, in order for the CDN to represent a valid CDF, it is sufficient that each of the local functions φc satisfy all of the properties of a multivariate CDF. [sent-32, score-0.083]

21 In a CDN, disjoint sets of variables A, B are marginally independent if they share no functions in common, and disjoint sets of variables A, B are conditionally independent given variable set C if no path linking any variable in A to any variable in B passes through C. [sent-34, score-0.134]

22 In addition, marginalization of variables in a CDN can be done in constant-time via a trivial maximization of the joint CDF with respect to the variables being marginalized. [sent-35, score-0.107]

23 The CDN framework provides us with a means to compactly represent multivariate joint CDFs over many variables: in the next section we will formulate a loss functional for learning to rank which takes on such a form. [sent-38, score-0.377]

24 3 Structured loss functionals for ranking learning We now proceed to formulate the problem of learning to rank in a structured setting. [sent-40, score-0.579]

25 Suppose we wish to rank N nodes in the set V = {V1 , · · · , VN } and we are given a set of observations D1 , · · · , DT . [sent-41, score-0.222]

26 Each observation Dt consists of an ordering over the nodes in a subset Vt ⊆ V, where each node is provided with a corresponding feature vector x ∈ RL which may be specific to the given observation. [sent-42, score-0.401]

27 The orderings could be provided in the form of ordinal node labels1 , or in the form of pairwise node preferences. [sent-43, score-0.499]

28 The orderings can be represented as a directed graph over the nodes in which a directed edge e = (Vi → Vj ) is drawn between 2 nodes Vi , Vj iff Vi is preferred to node Vj , which we denote as Vi Vj . [sent-44, score-0.564]

29 In general, we assume that for any given observation, we observe a partial ordering over nodes, with complete orderings being a special case. [sent-45, score-0.244]

30 We denote the above graph consisting of edges e = (Vi → Vj ) ∈ Et and the node set Vt as the order graph Gt = (Vt , Et ) for observation Dt so that Dt = {Gt , {xt }Vn ∈Vt }. [sent-46, score-0.334]

31 A toy example of an observation n over 4 nodes is shown in Figure 2(a). [sent-47, score-0.166]

32 Note that under this framework, the absence of an edge between two nodes Vi , Vj in the order graph indicates we cannot assert any preference between the two nodes for the given observation. [sent-48, score-0.49]

33 (a) (b) Figure 2: a) An example of an order graph over 4 nodes V1 , V2 , V3 , V4 corresponding to the objects to be ranked. [sent-49, score-0.3]

34 The graph represents the set of preference relationships V1 V2 , V 1 V3 , V 1 V4 , V 2 V4 , V 3 V4 ; b) Learning the ranking function from training data. [sent-50, score-0.472]

35 The training data consists of a set of order graphs over subsets of the objects to be ranked. [sent-51, score-0.154]

36 For order graph, the ranking function ρ maps each node to the real line . [sent-52, score-0.369]

37 The goal is to learn ρ such that we minimize our probability of misranking on test observations. [sent-53, score-0.06]

38 We now define ρ : V → R as a ranking function which assigns scores to nodes via their feature vectors so that for node Vi , Si = ρ(Vi ) + πi (2) where Si is a scalar and πi is a random variable specific to node Vi . [sent-54, score-0.587]

39 We wish to learn such a function given multiple observations D1 , · · · , DT so that we minimize the probability of misranking on test observations (Figure 2(b)). [sent-55, score-0.114]

40 The above model allows us to account for the fact that the amount of uncertainty about a node’s rank may depend on unobserved features for that node (e. [sent-56, score-0.18]

41 Under this model, the preference relation Vi Vj is completely equivalent to ρ(Vi ) + πi ≥ ρ(Vj ) + πj ⇔ πij = πj − πi ≤ ρ(Vi ) − ρ(Vj ). [sent-59, score-0.136]

42 (3) where we have defined πij as a preference variable between nodes Vi , Vj . [sent-60, score-0.244]

43 For each edge e = (Vi → Vj ) ∈ Et in the order graph, we can define r(ρ; e, Dt ) ≡ ρ(Vi ) − ρ(Vj ) and collect these into the vector r(ρ; Gt ) ∈ R|Et | . [sent-61, score-0.057]

44 Having defined the preferences, we must select an appropriate loss measure. [sent-63, score-0.066]

45 A sensible metric here [13] is the joint 1 It is crucial to note that node labels may in general not be directly comparable with one another from one observation to the next (e. [sent-64, score-0.264]

46 : documents with the same rating might not truly have the same degree of relevance for different queries), or the scale of the labels may be arbitrary. [sent-66, score-0.1]

47 probability of observing the order graph Gt = (Vt , Et ) corresponding to the partial ordering of nodes in Vt . [sent-67, score-0.337]

48 From Equation (3), this will take the form of a probability measure over events of the type πe ≤ r(ρ; e, Dt ) so that we obtain P r{Et |Vt , ρ} = P r [πe ≤ r(ρ; e, Dt )] = Fπ r(ρ; Gt ) , (4) e∈Et where Fπ is the joint CDF over the preference variables πe . [sent-68, score-0.217]

49 Given an observation Dt , the goal is to learn the ranking function ρ by maximizing Equation (4). [sent-69, score-0.313]

50 Note that under this framework, the set of edges Et corresponding to the set of pairwise preferences are treated as random variables which may have a high degree of dependence between one another, so that Fπ r(ρ; Gt ) is a joint CDF over multiple pairwise preferences. [sent-70, score-0.499]

51 The problem of learning the ranking function then consists of scoring multiple nodes simultaneously whilst accounting for dependencies between node scores. [sent-71, score-0.547]

52 (6) In general, the above structured loss functional may be difficult to specify, as it takes on the form of a joint CDF over many random variables with a high degree of inter-dependency which may require a large number of parameters to specify. [sent-74, score-0.298]

53 We can, however, compactly represent this using the CDN framework, as we will now show. [sent-75, score-0.054]

54 1 Tranforming order graphs into CDNs Figure 3: Transforming the order graph Gt into a CDN. [sent-77, score-0.123]

55 For each edge e = (Vi → Vj ) in the order graph (left), a preference variable πij is created. [sent-78, score-0.274]

56 All such random variables are then connected to one another in a CDN (right), allowing for complex dependencies between preferences. [sent-79, score-0.102]

57 The representation of the structured loss functional in Equation (5) as a CDN consists of transforming the order graph Gt for a each observation into a set of variable nodes in a CDN. [sent-80, score-0.527]

58 More precisely, for each edge e = (Vi → Vj ) in the order graph, the preference variable πij is created. [sent-81, score-0.193]

59 All such variables are then connected to one another in a CDN (Figure 3), where the pattern of connectivity used will determine the set of dependencies between these preferences πij as given by the marginal and conditional independence properties of CDNs [5]. [sent-82, score-0.317]

60 Thus for any given CDN topology, each preference node πe is a member of some neighborhood of preference nodes πe so that neighboring preferences nodes are marginally dependent of one another. [sent-83, score-0.81]

61 One possible concern here is that we may require a fully connected CDN topology over all possible pairwise preferences between all nodes in order to capture all of these dependencies, leading to a model which is cumbersome to learn. [sent-84, score-0.48]

62 Furthermore, we do not have to store a large CDN in memory during training, as we only need to store a single CDN over a relatively small number of preference variables for the current observation. [sent-86, score-0.202]

63 We can thus perform ranking learning in an online fashion by constructing a single CDN for each observation Dt and optimizing the loss − log Fπ r(ρ; Gt ) defined by that CDN for the given observation. [sent-87, score-0.379]

64 4 StructRank: a probabilistic model for structured ranking learning with node labels Suppose now that each node in the training set is provided with an ordinal node label y along with a feature vector x. [sent-88, score-0.769]

65 For any given order graph over some subset of the nodes, the node labels y allow us to establish edges in the order graph, so that an edge Vi → Vj exists between two nodes Vi , Vj iff yi > yj . [sent-89, score-0.42]

66 Consider now an edge e = (Vi → Vj ) in the order graph and define re ≡ 1 L re (a; Dt ) = ρ(xt ; a) − ρ(xt ; a). [sent-91, score-0.182]

67 For the given CDN and ranking functions, the learning problem for the current observation Dt then becomes log 1 + exp − w1 re (a; Dt ) + exp − w2 re (a; Dt ) inf θ t s. [sent-94, score-0.403]

68 The gradient ∇a L(θ; Dt ) and the derivatives with respect to the CDN function weights w1 , w2 for a given observation Dt are provided in the Supplementary Information. [sent-98, score-0.083]

69 5 Results To compare the performance of our proposed framework to other methods, we will use the following three metrics commonly in use in information retrieval research: Precision, Mean Average Precision (MAP) and Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) [6]. [sent-99, score-0.079]

70 The NDCG accounts for the fact that less relevant documents are less likely to be examine by a user by putting more weight on highly relevant documents than marginally relevant ones. [sent-100, score-0.131]

71 We downloaded the OHSUMED dataset provided as part of the LETOR 2. [sent-101, score-0.051]

72 The dataset consists of a set of 106 query-document pairs, with a feature vector and relevance judgment (a) (b) (c) Figure 4: a) Average NDCG as a function of truncation level n for the OHSUMED dataset. [sent-103, score-0.1]

73 NDCG values are averaged over 5 cross-validation splits; b) Mean average precision (MAP) as a function of truncation level n; c) Mean average precision value for several methods. [sent-104, score-0.085]

74 There are a total of 16,140 query-document pairs with relevance judgments provided by humans on three ordinal levels: definitely relevant, partially relevant or not relevant. [sent-106, score-0.112]

75 For any given query, we used the ordinal labels y for each document in the query in order to establish preferences between documents for that query. [sent-107, score-0.39]

76 Each node in the order graph is provided with 25 query-specific features including term frequency, document length, BM25 and LMIR features as well as combinations thereof [1, 11, 14]. [sent-108, score-0.249]

77 In accordance with the nomenclature above, we use the terms query and observation interchangeably. [sent-109, score-0.081]

78 The OHSUMED dataset is provided in the form of 5 training/validation/test splits of sizes 63/21/22 observations each. [sent-110, score-0.078]

79 To ensure that features are comparable across all observations, we normalized each feature vector within each observation as described in [8]. [sent-111, score-0.058]

80 We tested a fully connected CDN which models full interdependence between preferences, and a completely disconnected CDN which models preferences independently of one another. [sent-118, score-0.247]

81 With the exception of ListNet and ListMLE, none of the above methods explicitly model dependencies between pairwise preferences. [sent-122, score-0.162]

82 As can be seen, accounting for dependencies between pairwise preferences provides a significant gain in performance compared to modellling preferences as being independent. [sent-123, score-0.568]

83 6 Discussion We have proposed here a novel framework for ranking learning using structured loss functionals. [sent-126, score-0.459]

84 We have shown that the problem of learning to rank can be reduced to maximizing a joint CDF over multiple pairwise preferences. [sent-127, score-0.255]

85 We have shown how to compactly represent this using the CDN framework and have applied it to the OHSUMED benchmark dataset. [sent-128, score-0.123]

86 We have demonstrated that representing the dependencies between pairwise preferences leads to improved performance over modelling preferences as being independent of one another. [sent-129, score-0.577]

87 1 Relation to RankNet and ListNet/ListMLE The probability models for ranking proposed by [2, 4, 13] can all be expressed as special cases of models defined by different CDNs. [sent-131, score-0.255]

88 In the case of RankNet [2], the corresponding probability over a given pairwise preference Vi Vj is modelled by a logistic function of ρ(xi ) − ρ(xj ) and the model was optimized using cross-entropy loss. [sent-132, score-0.249]

89 The joint probability of preferences can thus be represented as a completely disconnected CDN with logistic functions in which all pairwise object preferences are treated as being independent. [sent-133, score-0.636]

90 As noted by the authors of [13], the above model is also an example of the Plackett-Luce class of probability models over object scores [9]. [sent-135, score-0.072]

91 In addition, the ListNet/ListMLE frameworks both require a complete ordering over objects by definition: under the CDN framework, we can model partial orderings, with complete orderings as a special case. [sent-136, score-0.379]

92 Our proposed framework unifies the above i=1 views of ranking as different instantiations of a joint CDF over pairwise preferences and hence as particular types of CDNs. [sent-138, score-0.646]

93 This allows us to consider flexible joint CDFs defined over different subsets of object preferences and over different families of CDN functions so as to capture various data specific properties. [sent-139, score-0.326]

94 In [13], it was shown that the loglikelihood corresponding to the probability of an ordering is a good surrogate to the 0-1 loss between the predicted ordering and the true ordering, as the former is differentiable and penalizes mis-orderings in a sensible way. [sent-142, score-0.258]

95 One could investigate connections between the structured loss functionals proposed in this paper and other ranking measures such as NDCG. [sent-143, score-0.492]

96 Another possible direction is to generalize StructRank to products over Gaussian multivariate CDFs or other classes of functions which satisfy the requirements of CDN functions , as in this paper we have elected to use a product of bivariate sigmoids φ(re , re ) to represent our loss functional. [sent-144, score-0.232]

97 In addition, we have only investigated representing the loss functional using a single CDN function: this could easily be generalized to K functions. [sent-146, score-0.11]

98 Learning to rank: from pairwise approach to listwise approach. [sent-182, score-0.145]

99 LETOR: Benchmark dataset for research on learning to rank for information retrieval. [sent-206, score-0.113]

100 Listwise approach to learning to rank - theory and algorithm. [sent-239, score-0.087]


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Author: Quentin J. Huys, Joshua Vogelstein, Peter Dayan

Abstract: Decision making lies at the very heart of many psychiatric diseases. It is also a central theoretical concern in a wide variety of fields and has undergone detailed, in-depth, analyses. We take as an example Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), applying insights from a Bayesian reinforcement learning framework. We focus on anhedonia and helplessness. Helplessness—a core element in the conceptualizations of MDD that has lead to major advances in its treatment, pharmacological and neurobiological understanding—is formalized as a simple prior over the outcome entropy of actions in uncertain environments. Anhedonia, which is an equally fundamental aspect of the disease, is related to the effective reward size. These formulations allow for the design of specific tasks to measure anhedonia and helplessness behaviorally. We show that these behavioral measures capture explicit, questionnaire-based cognitions. We also provide evidence that these tasks may allow classification of subjects into healthy and MDD groups based purely on a behavioural measure and avoiding any verbal reports. There are strong ties between decision making and psychiatry, with maladaptive decisions and behaviors being very prominent in people with psychiatric disorders. Depression is classically seen as following life events such as divorces and job losses. Longitudinal studies, however, have revealed that a significant fraction of the stressors associated with depression do in fact follow MDD onset, and that they are likely due to maladaptive behaviors prominent in MDD (Kendler et al., 1999). Clinically effective ’talking’ therapies for MDD such as cognitive and dialectical behavior therapies (DeRubeis et al., 1999; Bortolotti et al., 2008; Gotlib and Hammen, 2002; Power, 2005) explicitly concentrate on altering patients’ maladaptive behaviors and decision making processes. Decision making is a promising avenue into psychiatry for at least two more reasons. First, it offers powerful analytical tools. Control problems related to decision making are prevalent in a huge diversity of fields, ranging from ecology to economics, computer science and engineering. These fields have produced well-founded and thoroughly characterized frameworks within which many issues in decision making can be framed. Here, we will focus on framing issues identified in psychiatric settings within a normative decision making framework. Its second major strength comes from its relationship to neurobiology, and particularly those neuromodulatory systems which are powerfully affected by all major clinically effective pharmacotherapies in psychiatry. The understanding of these systems has benefited significantly from theoretical accounts of optimal control such as reinforcement learning (Montague et al., 1996; Kapur and Remington, 1996; Smith et al., 1999; Yu and Dayan, 2005; Dayan and Yu, 2006). Such accounts may be useful to identify in more specific terms the roles of the neuromodulators in psychiatry (Smith et al., 2004; Williams and Dayan, 2005; Moutoussis et al., 2008; Dayan and Huys, 2008). ∗ qhuys@cantab.net, joshuav@jhu.edu, dayan@gatsby.ucl.ac.uk; www.gatsby.ucl.ac.uk/∼qhuys/pub.html 1 Master Yoked Control Figure 1: The learned helplessness (LH) paradigm. Three sets of rats are used in a sequence of two tasks. In the first task, rats are exposed to escapable or inescapable shocks. Shocks come on at random times. The master rat is given escapable shocks: it can switch off the shock by performing an action, usually turning a wheel mounted in front of it. The yoked rat is exposed to precisely the same shocks as the master rat, i.e its shocks are terminated when the master rat terminates the shock. Thus its shocks are inescapable, there is nothing it can do itself to terminate them. A third set of rats is not exposed to shocks. Then, all three sets of rats are exposed to a shuttlebox escape task. Shocks again come on at random times, and rats have to shuttle to the other side of the box to terminate the shock. Only yoked rats fail to acquire the escape response. Yoked rats generally fail to acquire a wide variety of instrumental behaviours, either determined by reward or, as here, by punishment contingencies. This paper represents an initial attempt at validating this approach experimentally. We will frame core notions of MDD in a reinforcement learning framework and use it to design behavioral decision making experiments. More specifically, we will concentrate on two concepts central to current thinking about MDD: anhedonia and learned helplessness (LH, Maier and Seligman 1976; Maier and Watkins 2005). We formulate helplessness parametrically as prior beliefs on aspects of decision trees, and anhedonia as the effective reward size. This allows us to use choice behavior to infer the degree to which subjects’ behavioral choices are characterized by either of these. For validation, we correlate the parameters inferred from subjects’ behavior with standard, questionnaire-based measures of hopelessness and anhedonia, and finally use the inferred parameters alone to attempt to recover the diagnostic classification. 1 Core concepts: helplessness and anhedonia The basic LH paradigm is explained in figure 1. Its importance is manifold: the effect of inescapable shock on subsequent learning is sensitive to most classes of clinically effective antidepressants; it has arguably been a motivation framework for the development of the main talking therapies for depression (cognitive behavioural therapy, Williams (1992), it has motivated the development of further, yet more specific animal models (Willner, 1997), and it has been the basis of very specific research into the cognitive basis of depression (Peterson et al., 1993). Behavioral control is the central concept in LH: yoked and master rat do not differ in terms of the amount of shock (stress) they have experienced, only in terms of the behavioural control over it. It is not a standard notion in reinforcement learning, and there are several ways one could translate the concept into RL terms. At a simple level, there is intuitively more behavioural control if, when repeating one action, the same outcome occurs again and again, than if this were not true. Thus, at a very first level, control might be related to the outcome entropy of actions (see Maier and Seligman 1976 for an early formulation). Of course, this is too simple. If all available actions deterministically led to the same outcome, the agent has very little control. Finally, if one were able to achieve all outcomes except for the one one cares about (in the rats’ case switching off or avoiding the shock), we would again not say that there is much control (see Huys (2007); Huys and Dayan (2007) for a more detailed discussion). Despite its obvious limitations, we will here concentrate on the simplest notion for reasons of mathematical expediency. 2 0.6 0.5 Exploration vs Exploitation Predictive Distributions Q(aknown)−Q(aunknown) P(reward a known ) 0.7 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Choose blue slot machine 0.5 0 −0.5 0.1 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 Reward −1 Choose orange slot machine 1 High control Low control 2 3 4 5 Tree depth Figure 2: Effect of γ on predictions, Q-values and exploration behaviour. Assume a slot machine (blue) has been chosen five times, with possible rewards 1-5, and that reward 2 has been obtained twice, and reward 4 three times (inset in left panel). Left: Predictive distribution for a prior with negative γ (low control) in light gray, and large γ (extensive control) in dark gray. We see that, if the agent believes he has much control (and outcome distributions have low entropy), the predictive distribution puts all mass on the observations. Right: Assume now the agent gets up to 5 more pulls (tree depth 1-5) between the blue slot machine and a new, orange slot machine. The orange slot machine’s predictive distribution is flat as it has never been tried, and its expected value is therefore 3. The plot shows the difference between the values for the two slot machines. First consider the agent only has one more pull to take. In this case, independently of the priors about control, the agent will choose the blue machine, because it is just slightly better than average. Note though that the difference is more pronounced if the agent has a high control prior. But things change if the agent has two or more choices. Now, it is worth trying out the new machine if the agent has a high-control prior. For in that case, if the new machine turns out to yield a large reward on the first try, it is likely to do so again for the second and subsequent times. Thus, the prior about control determines the exploration bonus. The second central concept in current conceptions of MDD is that of reward sensitivity. Anhedonia, an inability to enjoy previously enjoyable things, is one of two symptoms necessary for the diagnosis of depression (American Psychiatric Association, 1994). A number of tasks in the literature have attempted to measure reward sensitivity behaviourally. While these generally concur in finding decreased reward sensitivity in subjects with MDD, these results need further clarification. Some studies show interactions between reward and punishment sensitivities with respect to MDD, but important aspects of the tasks are not clearly understood. For instance, Henriques et al. (1994); Henriques and Davidson (2000) show decreased resonsiveness of MDD subjects to rewards, but equally show decreased resonsiveness of healthy subjects to punishments. Pizzagalli et al. (2005) introduced an asymmetrically rewarded perceptual discrimination task and show that the rate of change of the response bias is anticorrelated with subjects’ anhedonic symptoms. Exactly how decreased reward responsivity can account for this is at pressent not clear. Great care has to be taken to disentangle these two concepts. Anhedonia and helplessness both provide good reasons for not taking an action: either because the reinforcements associated with the action are insufficient (anhedonia), or because the outcome is not judged a likely result of taking some particular action (if actions are thought to have large outcome entropy). 2 A Bayesian formulation of control We consider a scenario where subjects have no knowledge of the outcome distributions of actions, but rather learn about them. This means that their prior beliefs about the outcome distributions are not overwhelmed by the likelihood of observations, and may thus have measurable effects on their action choices. In terms of RL, this means that agents do not know the decision tree of the problem they face. Control is formulated as a prior distribution on the outcome distributions, and thereby as a prior distribution on the decision trees. The concentration parameter α of a Dirichlet process can very simply parametrise entropy, and, if used as a prior, allow for very efficient updates of the predictive distributions of actions. Let us assume we have actions A which have as outcomes rewards R, and keep count Nt (r, a) = 3 k:k < 0. Here, we included a regressor for the AGE as that was a confounding variable in our subject sample. Furthermore, if it is true that anhedonia, as expressed by the questionnaire, relates to reward sensitivity specifically, we should be able to write a similar regression for the learning rate ǫ (from equation 5) ǫ(BDIa, AGE) = θǫ BDIa + cǫ AGE + ζǫ but find that θǫ is not different from zero. Figure 4 shows the ML values for the parameters of interest (emphasized in blue in the equations) and confirms that people who express higher levels of anhedonia do indeed show less reward sensitivity, but do not differ in terms of learning rate. If it were the case that subjects with higher BDIa score were just less attentive to the task, one might also expect an effect of BDIa on learning rate. 3.2 Control Validation: The control task is new, and we first need to ascertain that subjects were indeed sensitive to main features of the task. We thus fit both a RW-learning rule (as in the previous section, but adjusted for the varying number of available actions), and the full control model. Importantly, both these models have two parameters, but only the full control model has a notion of outcome entropy, and evaluations a tree. The chance probability of subjects’ actions was 0.37, meaning that, on average, there were just under three machines on the screen. The probability of the actions under the RW-learning rule was better at 0.48, and that of the full control model 0.54. These differences are highly significant as the total number of choices is 29600. Thus, we conclude that subjects were indeed sensitive to the manipulation of outcome entropy, and that they did look ahead in a tree. Prior belief about control: Applying the procedure from the previous task to the main task, we write the main parameters of equations 2 and 4 as functions of the questionnaire measures and infer linear parameters: γ1 (BDIa, BHS, age) = χγ1 BHS + θγ1 BDIa + cγ1 AGE + ζγ1 γ2 (BDIa, BHS, age) = χγ2 BHS + θγ2 BDIa + cγ2 AGE + ζγ2 β(BDIa, BHS, age) = χβ BHS + θβ BDIa + cβ AGE + ζβ Importantly, because the BDIa scores and the BHS scores are correlated in our sample (they tend to be large for the subjects with MDD), we include the cross-terms (θγ1 , θγ2 , χγ ), as we are interested in the specific effects of BDIa on β, as before, and of BHS on γ. 6 3 control γ 2 Figure 6: Classification. Controls are shown as black dots, and depressed subjects as red crosses. The blue line is a linear classifier. Thus, the patients and controls can be approximately classified purely on the basis of behaviour. 1 0 83% correct 69% sensitivity 94% specificity −1 −2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 reward sensitivity β We here infer and display two separate values γ1 and γ2 . These correspond to the level of control in the first and the second half of the experiment. In fact, to parallel the LH experiments better, the slot machines in the first 50 rooms were actually very noisy (low true γ), which means that subjects were here exposed to low levels of control just like the yoked rats in the original experiment. In the second half of the experiment on the other hand, slot machines tended to be quite reliable (high true γ). Figure 5 shows again the ML values for the parameters of interest (emphasized in blue in the equations). Again, we find that our parameter estimate are very significantly different from zero (> three standard deviations). The effect of the BHS score on the prior beliefs about control γ is much stronger in the second half than of the experiment in the first half, i.e. the effect of BHS on the prior belief about control is particularly prominent when subjects are in a high-control environment and have previously been exposed to a low-control environment. This is an interesting parallel to the learned helplessness experiments in animals. 3.3 Classification Finally we combine the two tasks. We integrate out the learning rate ǫ, which we had found not be related to the questionnaire measures (c.f. figure 4), and use the distribution over β from the first task as a prior distribution on β for the second task. We also put weak priors on γ and infer both β and γ for the second task on a subject-by-subject basis. Figure 6 shows the posterior values for γ and β for MDD and healthy subjects and the ability of a linear classifier to classify them. 4 Discussion In this paper, we have attempted to provide a specific formulation of core psychiatric concepts in reinforcement learning terms, i.e. hopelessness as a prior belief about controllability, and anhedonia as reward sensitivity. We have briefly explained how we expect these formulations to have effect in a behavioural situation, have presented a behavioral task explicitly designed to be sensitive to our formulations, and shown that people’s verbal expression of hopelessness and anhedonia do have specific behavioral impacts. Subjects who express anhedonia display insensitivity to rewards and those expressing hopelessness behave as if they had prior beliefs that outcome distributions of actions (slot machines) are very broad. Finally, we have shown that these purely behavioural measures are also predictive of their psychiatric status, in that we were able to classify patients and healthy controls purely on the basis of performance. Several aspects of this work are novel. There have been previous attempts to map aspects of psychiatric dysfunction onto specific parametrizations (Cohen et al., 1996; Smith et al., 2004; Williams and Dayan, 2005; Moutoussis et al., 2008), but we believe that our work represents the first attempt to a) apply it to MDD; b) make formal predictions about subject behavior c) present strong evidence linking anhedonia specifically to reward insensitivity across two tasks d) combine tasks to tease helplessness and anhedonia apart and e) to use the behavioral inferences for classification. The latter point is particularly important, as it will determine any potential clinical significance (Veiel, 1997). In the future, rather than cross-validating with respect to say DSM-IV criteria, it may also be important to validate measures such as ours in their own right in longitudinal studies. 7 Several important caveats do remain. First, the populations are not fully matched for age. We included age as an additional regressor and found all results to be robust. Secondly, only the healthy subjects were remunerated. However, repeating the analyses presented using only the MDD subjects yields the same results (data not shown). Thirdly, we have not yet fully mirrored the LH experiments. We have so far only tested the transfer from a low-control environment to a high-control environment. To make statements like those in animal learned helplessness experiments, the transfer from high-control to low-control environments will need to be examined, too. Fourth, the notion of control we have used is very simple, and more complex notions should certainly be tested (see Dayan and Huys 2008). Fifth, and maybe most importantly, we have so far only attempted to classify MDD and healthy subjects, and can thus not yet make any statements about the specificity of these effects with respect to MDD. Finally, it will be important to replicate these results independently, and possibly in a different modality. Nevertheless, we believe these results to be very encouraging. Acknowledgments: This work would not have been possible without the help of Sarah Hollingsworth Lisanby, Kenneth Miller and Ramin V. Parsey. We would also like to thank Nathaniel Daw and Hanneke EM Den Ouden and Ren´ Hen for invaluable discussions. Support for this work was provided by the Gatsby Charitable e Foundation (PD), a UCL Bogue Fellowship and the Swartz Foundation (QH) and a Columbia University startup grant to Kenneth Miller. References American Psychiatric Association (1994). Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. American Psychiatric Association Press. 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Medications versus cognitive behavior therapy for severely depressed outpatients: mega-analysis of four randomized comparisons. Am J Psychiatry, 156(7):1007–1013. First, M. B., Spitzer, R. L., Gibbon, M., and Williams, J. B. (2002a). Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders, Research Version, Non-Patient Edition. (SCID-I/NP). Biometrics Research, New York State Psychiatric Institute. First, M. B., Spitzer, R. L., Gibbon, M., and Williams, J. B. (2002b). Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders, Research Version, Patient Edition. (SCID-I/P). Biometrics Research, New York State Psychiatric Institute. Gotlib, I. H. and Hammen, C. L., editors (2002). Handbook of Depression. The Guilford Press. Henriques, J. B. and Davidson, R. J. (2000). Decreased responsiveness to reward in depression. Cognition and Emotion, 14(5):711–24. Henriques, J. B., Glowacki, J. M., and Davidson, R. J. (1994). Reward fails to alter response bias in depression. 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Author: Jeremy Reynolds, Michael C. Mozer

Abstract: Cognitive control refers to the flexible deployment of memory and attention in response to task demands and current goals. Control is often studied experimentally by presenting sequences of stimuli, some demanding a response, and others modulating the stimulus-response mapping. In these tasks, participants must maintain information about the current stimulus-response mapping in working memory. Prominent theories of cognitive control use recurrent neural nets to implement working memory, and optimize memory utilization via reinforcement learning. We present a novel perspective on cognitive control in which working memory representations are intrinsically probabilistic, and control operations that maintain and update working memory are dynamically determined via probabilistic inference. We show that our model provides a parsimonious account of behavioral and neuroimaging data, and suggest that it offers an elegant conceptualization of control in which behavior can be cast as optimal, subject to limitations on learning and the rate of information processing. Moreover, our model provides insight into how task instructions can be directly translated into appropriate behavior and then efficiently refined with subsequent task experience. 1

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