emnlp emnlp2011 emnlp2011-139 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

139 emnlp-2011-Twitter Catches The Flu: Detecting Influenza Epidemics using Twitter


Source: pdf

Author: Eiji ARAMAKI ; Sachiko MASKAWA ; Mizuki MORITA

Abstract: Sachiko MASKAWA The University of Tokyo Tokyo, Japan s achi ko . mas kawa @ gma i . com l Mizuki MORITA National Institute of Biomedical Innovation Osaka, Japan mori ta . mi zuki @ gmai l com . posts more than 5.5 million messages (tweets) every day (reported by Twitter.com in March 201 1). With the recent rise in popularity and scale of social media, a growing need exists for systems that can extract useful information from huge amounts of data. We address the issue of detecting influenza epidemics. First, the proposed system extracts influenza related tweets using Twitter API. Then, only tweets that mention actual influenza patients are extracted by the support vector machine (SVM) based classifier. The experiment results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach (0.89 correlation to the gold standard). Especially at the outbreak and early spread (early epidemic stage), the proposed method shows high correlation (0.97 correlation), which outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. This paper describes that Twitter texts reflect the real world, and that NLP techniques can be applied to extract only tweets that contain useful information. 1

Reference: text


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 First, the proposed system extracts influenza related tweets using Twitter API. [sent-12, score-0.944]

2 Then, only tweets that mention actual influenza patients are extracted by the support vector machine (SVM) based classifier. [sent-13, score-0.925]

3 The experiment results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach (0. [sent-14, score-0.051]

4 Especially at the outbreak and early spread (early epidemic stage), the proposed method shows high correlation (0. [sent-16, score-0.258]

5 This paper describes that Twitter texts reflect the real world, and that NLP techniques can be applied to extract only tweets that contain useful information. [sent-18, score-0.131]

6 Among the numerous potential applications, this study addresses the issue of detecting influenza epidemics, which presents two outstanding advantages over current methods. [sent-31, score-0.812]

7 Such a huge data volume dwarfs traditional surveillance resources. [sent-35, score-0.142]

8 This characteristic is ex- tremely suitable for influenza epidemic detection because early stage detection is important for influenza warnings. [sent-37, score-1.858]

9 Although Twitter based influenza warnings potentially offer the advantages noted above, it might also expose inaccurate or biased information from tweets like the following (brackets [] indicate the comments):   Headache? [sent-38, score-0.949]

10 [Suspi--‐ cions] The World Health Organization reports the avian influenza, or bird flu, epidemic has spread to nine Asian countries in the past few weeks. [sent-40, score-0.178]

11 [Question] Although these tweets include mention of “influenza” or “flu”, they do not indicate that an influenza patient is present nearby. [sent-44, score-0.969]

12 In our experiments, 42% of all tweets that include “influenza” are negative influenza tweets. [sent-48, score-0.984]

13 The huge volume of such negative tweets biases the results. [sent-49, score-0.208]

14 This paper presents a proposal of a machinelearning based classifier to filter out negative influenza tweets. [sent-50, score-0.877]

15 First, we build an annotated corpus of pairs of a tweet and positive/negative labels. [sent-51, score-0.12]

16 Then, a support vector machine (SVM) (Cortes and Vapnik, 1995) based sentence classifier extracts only positive influenza tweets from tweets. [sent-52, score-0.992]

17 In the experiments, the results demonstrated the high correlation (0. [sent-53, score-0.081]

18 The specified research point of this study is twofold: (1) This report describes that an SVM-based classifier can filter out the negative influenza tweets (f-measure=0. [sent-55, score-1.008]

19 (2) Experiments empirically demonstrate that the proposed method detects the influenza epidemics with high accuracy (correlation ratio=0. [sent-57, score-0.972]

20 2 Influenza Epidemic Detection The detection of influenza epidemics is a national mission in every country for two reasons. [sent-59, score-0.993]

21 (1) Anti-influenza drugs, which differ among influenza types, must be prepared before the epidemics. [sent-60, score-0.794]

22 (2) We can only slightly predict what type of influenza will spread in any given season. [sent-61, score-0.825]

23 This situation naturally demands the early detection of influenza epidemics. [sent-62, score-0.886]

24 This section presents a description of previous methods of influenza epidemic detection. [sent-63, score-0.89]

25 1 Traditional Approaches Most countries have their own influenza surveillance organization/center: the U. [sent-65, score-0.948]

26 Their surveillance systems fundamentally rely on both virology and clinical data. [sent-70, score-0.206]

27 For example, the IDSC gathers influenza patient data from 5,000 clinics and releases summary reports. [sent-71, score-0.838]

28 2 Recent Approaches In an attempt to provide earlier influenza detection, various new approaches are proposed each year. [sent-75, score-0.813]

29 (2003) described a telephone triage service, a public service, to give advice to users via telephone. [sent-77, score-0.06]

30 They investigated the number of telephone calls and reported a significant correlation with influenza epidemics. [sent-78, score-0.907]

31 Because an influenza patient usually requires anti-influenza drugs, this approach is reasonable. [sent-80, score-0.838]

32 However, in most countries, antiinfluenza drugs are not available at the drug store (only hospitals provide such drugs). [sent-81, score-0.079]

33 They used Google web search queries that correlate with an influenza epidemic. [sent-84, score-0.818]

34 Their approach demonstrated high accuracy (average correlation ratio of 0. [sent-85, score-0.099]

35 (2009) used a query log of a Switzerland web search engine. [sent-94, score-0.05]

36 employs a sentence classification (discrimination of negative influenza tweets). [sent-107, score-0.853]

37 3 Influenza Corpus As described in Section 1, it is necessary to filter out negative influenza tweets to infer precise amounts of influenza epidemics. [sent-108, score-1.778]

38 To do so, we con- structed the influenza corpus (Section 3). [sent-109, score-0.794]

39 We extracted only influenza-related tweets using a simple word look-up of “influenza”. [sent-117, score-0.131]

40 Training Data are 5,000 tweets sent in November 2008. [sent-121, score-0.131]

41 They were used in experiments of influenza epidemics detection. [sent-124, score-0.932]

42 Because of the three dropout periods (Figure 1), the test data were separated into four periods (winter 2008, summer 2009, winter 2009, and summer 2010). [sent-125, score-0.28]

43 2 Positive–negative Annotation To each tweet in the training dataset, a human annotator assigned one of two labels: positive or negative. [sent-127, score-0.163]

44 In this labeling procedure, we regarded a tweet that meets the following two conditions as positive data. [sent-128, score-0.163]

45 Condition 1 (A Tweet person or Surrounding persons have Flu): one or more people who have influenza should exist around the tweet person. [sent-129, score-0.914]

46 The data include three dropout periods because the Twitter API specifications changed in those periods. [sent-134, score-0.097]

47 The dropout periods were removed from evaluation in the experiments (Section 5). [sent-135, score-0.097]

48 Table 1: Corpus (Tweets with a Positive or Negative Label) Positive(+1)/ Negative(--1‐) +1 Tweet A bad influenza is going around in our lab. [sent-136, score-0.794]

49 (Nearby people have the flu) +1 My flu is worse t han i t w as yesterday. [sent-143, score-0.172]

50 --1‐ In the normal flu s eason, 80 percent o f d eaths occur in people over 65 (Simply a fact) --1‐ Influenza is now r aging t hroughout J apan. [sent-144, score-0.172]

51 ) --1‐ Bird flu damage is spreading i n J apan. [sent-151, score-0.172]

52 The case arc “()” indicates the reason for the positive or negative annotation. [sent-155, score-0.102]

53 4 Influenza Positive–negative Classifier Using the corpus (Section 3), we built a classifier that judges whether a given tweet is positive or negative. [sent-166, score-0.187]

54 The result, presented in Table 2, shows that SVM with a polynomial kernel showed feasibility from both viewpoints of accuracy and the training time. [sent-181, score-0.051]

55 5 Experiments We assessed the detection performance using actual influenza reports provided by the Japanese IDSC. [sent-182, score-0.855]

56 DRUG: The amounts of drug sales (sales of cold medicines). [sent-211, score-0.078]

57 We split the data into four seasons as follows:  Season I: winter 2008,  Season II: summer 2009,  Season III: winter 2009,  Season IV: summer 2010. [sent-222, score-0.229]

58 To investigate further detailed evaluations, we split the winters into two sub-seasons: before the peak and after the peak. [sent-223, score-0.149]

59 We regard the peak point as the day with the highest number in that season. [sent-224, score-0.195]

60 Excessive News Period: In our experimental data, Season II and the earlier peak of Season III are special periods because news related to swine flu (H1N1 flu) is extremely hot in those seasons (Fig. [sent-226, score-0.518]

61 We also investigated the results with and without the excessive news period. [sent-229, score-0.157]

62 3 Evaluation Metric The evaluation metric is based on correlation (Pearson correlation) between the gold standard value and the estimated value. [sent-233, score-0.103]

63 In the nonexcessive news period, the proposed method achieved the highest performance (0. [sent-236, score-0.077]

64 This correlation is considerably higher than the query-based approach (GOOGLE), demonstrating the basic feasibility of the proposed approach. [sent-238, score-0.132]

65 However, during the excessive news periods, the proposed method suffers from an avalanche of news, generating a news bias. [sent-239, score-0.234]

66 1 Discussion SVM-based Negative Filtering contributes to Performance In most seasons, the proposed SVM approach (TWEET-SVM) shows higher correlation than the simple word lookup method (TWEET-RAW). [sent-242, score-0.1]

67 This result demonstrates the basic feasibility of the proposed approach. [sent-247, score-0.051]

68 2 All Methods Suffer from News Bias in Excessive News Period All methods expose the poor performance that prevails during the excessive news period (from Season II to Season III before the peak). [sent-250, score-0.231]

69 One reason for that vulnerability is that Twitter is a kind of communication tool by which a tweet affects other people. [sent-252, score-0.12]

70 Consequently, the possibility exists that a few tweets related to “flu” might spread widely, generating an explosive burst of influenza-related tweets. [sent-253, score-0.186]

71 TWEET-RAW TWEET-SVM DRUG GOOGLE (Proposed Method) Excessive news period 0. [sent-257, score-0.108]

72 976 The number in bold indicates the significance correlation (p=0. [sent-298, score-0.081]

73 3 Tweets have Advantages Detection in Early Stage From practical viewpoints, the most important task is to detect influenza epidemics before the peak (early stage detection). [sent-302, score-1.102]

74 Consequently, the correlation of the two seasons, Season Ibefore the peak and Season III before the peak, presents the practical performance. [sent-303, score-0.23]

75 In Season Ibefore the peak (Figure 5 Left), the proposed method (TWEET-SVM) shows the best performance among all methods. [sent-305, score-0.168]

76 1573 In Season II before the peak (Figure 5 Right), all methods including the proposed method showed poor correlation because they are included in the excessive news periods. [sent-306, score-0.406]

77 During that season, the newswires heavily reported the swine flu twice (April 2009 and May 2009). [sent-307, score-0.2]

78 4 Human Action is Sensitive demics before Epi- Figure 6 presents the distribution between the detected values (using GOOGLE and using TWEETSVM) and the gold standard value (before the peak is shown by “+”; that after the peak is shown as “”). [sent-313, score-0.344]

79 Although the detected values fundamentally correlate with the gold standard, we can see different sensitivity before and after peak (The distribution before peak “+” is a higher value than after peak “-”. [sent-314, score-0.511]

80 Results show that human action, a web search (GOOGLE) and a tweet (TWEET-SVM), highly corresponds to the real influenza before the epidemic peaks, and vice versa. [sent-316, score-1.034]

81 More acute detection is possible if we incorporate a model considering this aspect of human nature. [sent-317, score-0.061]

82 1574 7 Related Works The core technology of the proposed method is to classify whether the event is positive or negative. [sent-318, score-0.062]

83 This task is similar to negation identification, which is a traditional topic, especially in medical fields. [sent-319, score-0.092]

84 Previous Negation (Syntactic) Positive sentence This study: Negative Influenza (Semantic) Positive Influenza I don’t have the flu ! [sent-328, score-0.172]

85 Negative sentence Negative Influenza I have enough flu drugs. [sent-329, score-0.172]

86 Table 5: Our target influenza negation (semantic) and previous negation (syntactic) Although these approaches specifically examine the syntactic negation, this study detects the negative influenza, which is a specified semantic negation. [sent-332, score-0.992]

87 8 Conclusion This paper proposed a new Twitter-based influenza epidemics detection method, which relies on the Natural Language Processing (NLP). [sent-340, score-1.012]

88 Our proposed method could successfully filter out the negative influenza tweets (f-measure=0. [sent-341, score-1.003]

89 The experiments with the test data empirically demonstrate that the proposed method detects influenza epidemics with high correlation (correlation ratio=0. [sent-343, score-1.053]

90 1575 Figure 7: An influenza severance system “INFLU kun” using the proposed method is available at http://mednlp. [sent-346, score-0.813]

91 Web System: The web service is also released at http://mednlp. [sent-352, score-0.07]

92 ConText: An algorithm for identifying contextual features from clinical text. [sent-401, score-0.064]

93 A controlled trial of automated classification of negation from clinical notes. [sent-419, score-0.123]

94 Telephone triage: A timely data source for surveillance of influenza-like diseases. [sent-426, score-0.124]

95 Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data, Nature Vol. [sent-458, score-0.958]

96 A novel hybrid approach to automated negation detection in clinical radiology reports. [sent-465, score-0.184]

97 Analysis of Web access logs for surveillance of influenza. [sent-492, score-0.124]

98 Evaluation of over-the-counter pharmaceutical sales as a possible early warning indicator of human disease. [sent-499, score-0.067]

99 Use of general purpose negation detection to augment concept indexing of medical documents: A quantitative study using theUMLS. [sent-517, score-0.153]

100 Earthquake shakes Twitter users: real-time event detection by social sensors, in Proc. [sent-548, score-0.08]


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