nips nips2001 nips2001-41 nips2001-41-reference knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

41 nips-2001-Bayesian Predictive Profiles With Applications to Retail Transaction Data


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Author: Igor V. Cadez, Padhraic Smyth

Abstract: Massive transaction data sets are recorded in a routine manner in telecommunications, retail commerce, and Web site management. In this paper we address the problem of inferring predictive individual profiles from such historical transaction data. We describe a generative mixture model for count data and use an an approximate Bayesian estimation framework that effectively combines an individual’s specific history with more general population patterns. We use a large real-world retail transaction data set to illustrate how these profiles consistently outperform non-mixture and non-Bayesian techniques in predicting customer behavior in out-of-sample data. 1


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